$XOM Short - OverboughtXOM looks over extended and approaching heavy resistance after ER pop.
I like the short setup here with MARCH 80 puts opened today, looking for some retracement / pullback expected to cool off the RSI. This isn't a long term idea, just to profit off the expected profit taking that's expected after such a strong move to the upside.
First target is $77.5
XOM
XOM Exxon Mobil Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emission | Price TargetsToday i have 2 relevant price targets for your from the most prestigious analysts: The Goldman Sachs Group prediction is $83 for XOM, which is most likely (to hit the resistance level) and Bank of America which has an optimistic price target of $95.
The price targets are plausible, since there is a possible disruption to European energy supplies because of Russia - Ukraine border crisis.
and
Crude oil prices will likely stay at the 7 year high since OPEC+ will keep the existing policy of gradual increase of production.
XOM will spend $3bn in the next five years on a new low-carbon business unit. They also bought a 49.9% stake in Norwegian biofuels company Biojet AS to achieve its target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Exxon Goal for 2050 is Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
Exxon Mobil haven`t cut the dividends, like other companies, even though in 2020 they had negative earnings, -22.44Bil.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
1/30/22 XOMExxon Mobil Corporation ( NYSE:XOM )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Integrated Oil)
Market Capitalization: 318.703B
Current Price: $75.28
Breakout price: $76.05
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $73.90-$69.90
Price Target: $85.00-$86.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 112-120d
Contract of Interest: $XOM 6/17/22 75c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.05/contract
$XOM bullish break above long 7.5 year trendline on monthly$XOM bullish break above long 7.5 year trendline
And on the weekly looking like a golden cross (w/ my 35 & 180EMA’s which are quite reliable)
No trade plan right now, just an observation… I sold at 70.83 on the last swing but will add this one to my radar of things that could stay bullish. Energy stocks $XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF will be on my list as well)
Definitely a bullish move and I’ll be looking on the smaller timeframes for a possible entry…
Though, also noting, that in the last financial crisis XOM did decline as well, so that trendline will be watched carefully…
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time)
Have fun, y’all!!
(\_/)
( •_•)
/ >🚀
EXXON Mobil is putting a smile on our faces. XOMConfirm on Wave C, we are going up. Markets cannot be timed, but we estimate this is a more or less longterm prediction.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
Energy stocks for high inflation era..!it seems Energy stocks are ready to finish their correction and started a new rally!
Keep them in your portfolio during high inflation times!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
oil bull oil retested the major down trend line. as long as we close the week above it, a new major uptrend will be confirmed on the long term. the release from the reserves just showed defeat for bidens green energy bs, that's why we got a pop on the news its an extremely bullish signal for oil. the population and industries are far from going green
Close your eyes and buy: XOMAt the start of the year with EV on everyone's lips I wanted to be contrarian. What is the sector that is MOST HATED in the market? Energy... specifically "dirty" energy. NYSE:XOM at the very start of the year was trading below Book Value. Through all of these price shocks to oil and a bearish energy market they have not ceased or cut their dividends. Even now at this price it still offers an above 7% yield. Unfortunately, I hesitated as now this week the bullish case seems to be known by all with new analyst upgrades coming out. I hate to do it but I started my long term position today. I'll add to my full allocation on (hopefully) pullbacks but sometimes you just have to buy the highs to get in.
Looking for a rally in Oil stocksThe market looks to be recovery today and the most interesting stocks to me were oil companies ( NYSE:XOM , NYSE:MRO , NYSE:COP ) which all exhibited morning open volatility spikes. The one I liked the most because it was at at 50% Retracement (see high timeframe below) is XOM so it fits my criteria for a long trade.
I'll be looking for a retest of the last major highs.
This is also an addon positions to a winner from the beginning of 2021 (see Related Idea).
SPY Weekly, HourlyWoah! What happened yesterday? Looks like we sold off due to the news of an {1}Evergrande fail. With the reports of inflationary rates hitting their highest of all time at a whooping 6.2 percent, not heard of since the 1990's.
With the supply chain waning, prices of average goods are up. All you need to do is look in the plastic bag of your local grocer to see your 50 bucks didn't even fill half of it up. Gas prices doubling inside of 2 year, and an over leveraged banking system along with hedge funds due to low rates.
Consumer confidence was up 3.1 percent, but this trend may not continue without a significant wage gap increase. A GDP that is measuring the sick and the dying rather then an actual product. Not to mention banks with drawling massive amounts of their equity securities positions JP Morgan , {2}Wells Fargo decreasing credit limits , {3} Deutsche Bank 573 million of securities to take affect 12-21-2021, Goldman Sachs 10.5 Billion of Securities. These are the ones I know about.
Looking at a few charts, without technical indicators because these obviously do not apply
weekly
daily
Tomorrow I see sideways trading to start the right shoulder of a corrective H&S pattern
15 min
Trade safely, go leaps on options {Not financial advise}
How to measure Consumer Confidence is in the link below
www.investopedia.com
{1} the-japan-news.com
{2}https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210520005659/en/CORRECTING-and-REPLACING-Wells-Fargo-to-Liquidate-Central-Fidelity-Capital-Trust-I-and-Wachovia-Capital-Trust-II-Resulting-in-the-Cancellation-of-Capital-Securities-and-Distribution-of-Underlying-Debentures-to-Holders
{3} chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Finvestor-relations.db.com%2Ffiles%2Fdocuments%2Fnews-for-fixed-income-investors%2FISIN%2520DE000A0DHUM0%2520Note%2520of%2520Redemption%252019%2520October%25202021.pdf&clen=123236&chunk=true
{4} www.bloomberg.com
You guys! Please be careful
XOM resistance playXOM is testing a major resistance, and by the looks of premarket, we are pulling back slightly. My thoughts are a pullback before a break out over resistance. Look for resistance to act as support before making a trade. I'll be looking at calls if this happens. I likely won't be playing puts on this.
Every Traders and Analysts should know their Limitations!In this article, I would like to review some of my best trades in the past 2 months!
My goal is to talk about earnings and how unpredictable their outcome could be.
In the past few months, I have tried to find reliable methods to predict the price movement after the earnings!
Unfortunately, I did not find any reliable and fairly accurate method so far!
Having said that, I prefer to stay out of trades before earnings to manage the risk of exposure to big gaps!
I do this because I know it is in my favor in the long term!
For example, I opened a perfect entry at 125.5 for Qualcomm, and closed with a +7.66% gain before the earning! It popped with +12% after earnings!
Should I regret it?
My answer is NO, I am actually very proud of this trade, although I missed the bigger chunk of profits in this trade, my decision was right in Palantir and AMC case!
PLTR: trade closed with +10% in 21 days
AMC: trade closed with +26% in 4 days
Also, I prevent a catastrophe in PYPL: closing with a -2.16% loss.
But why should I be proud of my trade?
I think any trader needs to define his rules and follow the rules!
In the long term, those who do not follow their rules will have the same result, most of them will fail..!
How did I decide to not hold my positions during earning calls?
I apply one of the game theory rules!
Minimax
In game theory, minimax is a decision rule used to minimize the worst-case potential loss; in other words, a player considers all of the best opponent responses to his strategies and selects the strategy such that the opponent's best strategy gives a payoff as large as possible.
The name "minimax" comes from minimizing the loss involved when the opponent selects the strategy that gives maximum loss and is useful in analyzing the first player's decisions both when the players move sequentially and when the players move simultaneously. In the latter case, minimax may give a Nash equilibrium of the game if some additional conditions hold.
Minimax is also useful in combinatorial games, in which every position is assigned a payoff. The simplest example is assigning a "1" to a winning position and "-1" to a losing one, but as this is difficult to calculate for all but the simplest games, intermediate evaluations (specifically chosen for the game in question) are generally necessary. In this context, the goal of the first player is to maximize the evaluation of the position, and the goal of the second player is to minimize the evaluation of the position, so the minimax rule applies. This, in essence, is how computers approach games like chess and Go, though various computational improvements are possible to the "naive" implementation of minimax. (Brilliant)
Minimax has many applications:
In game theory or decision making, a tactic in which individuals attempt either to minimize their own maximum losses or to reduce the most an opponent will gain. For example, a health researcher may propose an intervention that would be the least aversive treatment for a serious disease, thereby minimizing the adverse effects patients may expect to experience as a result of the disease.
I can apply what I learned in med school to the market!
When should you use Minimax in trading?
The answer is simple:
Always..!
Actually, Minimax is the mathematical reason behind using stop loss!
I think I do not need to talk about the importance of stop-loss, I just want to mention WD Gann quote about stop loss:
"Stop loss orders are a trader's best friend."
Price Gap:
Generally speaking, stock prices experience a price gap after earnings! makes it very hard to execute your stop loss without slippage if you are on the wrong side of the trade! this slippage could harm your overall performance in long term as a trader!
Decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.
Minimax, as the name suggests, is a method in decision theory for minimizing the maximum loss. Alternatively, it can be thought of as maximizing the minimum gain, which is also known as Maximin.
It all started from a two-player zero-sum game theory, covering both the cases where players take alternate moves and those where they made simultaneous moves. It has also been extended to more complex games and to general decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.
Stock Market is a Non-zero-sum game, While options are a zero-sum game!
To wrap it up, you should use minimax when your opponent is very sophisticated and its activities are very unpredictable!
No need to say that market is very sophisticated and unpredictable!
"Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?"
-Mike McDermot, 'Rounders'.
Reference articles:
brilliant.org
dictionary.apa.org
uh.edu
becominghuman.ai
Post 10/28 Earnings Announcement Analysis Post 10/28 Earnings Announcements
$XOM, $CVX, $PSX, $AON, $CL
$XOM - Exxon Mobile
Reported EPS of $2.96/share - beat estimates of $2.20/share
Earnings of $6.8B vs.($296M) in Q3 FY20'
Revenue of $44.7B vs $45.4B down (1.54%) YoY
Operating CF of $12.1B
FCF was a record-setting $6.7B
Returned $3.7B to shareholders in dividends
Reduced debt by $4B - bringing debt/capital ratio to ~25%
Up 1.76% after hours
$CVX - Chevron
Reported EPS of $2.96/share
Revenue of $44.71B up +80% YoY
Returned $6.2B to shareholders in dividends
Repurchased $625M of stock
Reduced Debt by $5.6B
FY21 Spending down 22% YoY
Net Oil-Equivalent Production rose to 3.03M bbl/day - up 7% YoY
Up 1.64% after hours - up 34% YTD
$PSX - Phillips 66
Reported EPS of $0.74/share - beat estimates of $0.60/share - up 163% YoY
Earnings of $712M
Revenue of $27.89B
Operating CF of $1.7B
Returned $841M to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases
Announced new $3B share repurchase program
Up 2.75x% after hours
$AON - Aon
Reported EPS of $1.53/share - up 14% YoY
Revenue of $2.7B - down 13% YoY
Income of ($801M) down (282%) YoY
FCF of $1.14B - (40%) YoY
Down (%2.52%) after hours
$CL - Colgate-Palmolive
Reported EPS of $0.75/share - down (7.0%) YoY
Net Income of $681M down (9.4%) YoY
Sales of $$4.4B - up 6.5% YoY
Operating Profit of $976M - down (4.12%) YoY
Operating CF of $2.2B
Up 0.35% after hours
USOIL at October 2014 pricesWho would have thought that WTI Crude Oil will reach once again the 2014 levels, with all this green energy rally in the last few years?
What`s next, to see once again Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) be the biggest company in the S&P 500?
I think USOIL is heading for a retracement right now at 70-71usd levels, and overall forming a Head and Shoulders bearish pattern with a 56usd price target.
I`m looking forward to read your opinions about it.
XOM inverse cup and handle Seems to me, at this time, pretty much any larger holdings in the S&P are safe to buy an in the money or out of the money put contract(s). We are seeing a controlled correction instead of a complete dump. I am no financial advisor or analyst. XOM is one of my favorites to either support, or short. I am seeing a rather large cup and handle formation brewing here which should give is a definite answer to how close , or amount of correction we may see in the next few days. Good luck out there Guys and Gals.
Exxon Mobil at the end of Impulse? XOMThe picture is not 100% clear, but we are query if this might be it for XOM. It is possible at this stage to have a relatively shallow pullback, to only start rising again. At this stage, it is looking quite likely that we might be meandering locally for a period of time. Markets cannot be timed.
Remember that this is not financial advice and that we are not responsible for your portfolio. Only you are. You must do your own research and remember to act in accordance to your own research. That aside, Fibonacci goals are as ever in green and invalidation is in red. Take care of yourselves out there.
Energy flashing a buy signal (Technical Analysis)AMEX:XLE
NYMEX:CL1!
NYSE:XOM NYSE:AMPY
Energy stocks, crude oil, and the XLE energy ETF all flashing buy signals. $100 oil looks invitable.
From failed moves come fast moves, and oil/energy stocks failed an attempted breakdown below the neckline.
A few favorite long ideas: $LPI, $AMPY, $XLE, CL1 (futures), $XOM