Natural Gas & Oil - Heating Up!Nat gas made a bullish reversal today. Closing up over 6%
Natural gas has recaptured the short term trend and is trying to establish a new bullish range.
If Nat gas holds above the key $1.8622 level we will have a quick squeeze to $2.25
Oil continues to grind higher. making new higher highs and higher lows.
Oil is now on watch to target $90 a barrel.
Inflation still in a downtrend with these commodities breaking out?
XOM
EXXON MOBIL This sell signal will take it to $105.00 minimum.Exxon Mobil (XOM) has been on a tremendous since the January 18 bottom and even more so since the start of this month (March). We are about to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame and last time this pattern emerged (September 20 2023), the market top was formed a week after.
In fact all Tops since November 2022 where formed on a Higher High sequence, confirmed by a 1D MACD Bearish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for the ideal sell opportunity on Exxon's next High and we will enter it after the MACD forms a Bearish Cross. All previous 3 corrective waves have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That gives us a medium-term Target of $105.00.
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Exxon Mobil: On the Brink of a Collapse?Having not reviewed Exxon Mobil for a while, it's important to note its strong correlation with oil prices, on which we're currently positioned in a short trade. Accordingly, we also anticipate a downward trend for Exxon Mobil that has yet to conclude. The construction of Wave E or overarching Wave (A) peaked at approximately $96. The critical question now is whether we're forming a Flat in the form of either a Regular or Expanded Flat.
We'll observe how this unfolds without making speculative judgments due to the unusual nature of witnessing an ABCDE movement towards Wave (A). Over the next year, we expect Exxon Mobil to decline, targeting a retracement between $75 and $50 as the maximum. Any level within this range presents a solid buying opportunity for a long-term investment, anticipating a robust Wave III.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.37.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Natural Gas going lower? How about Oil?Natural gas has started the week off on a bad note.
Nat gas has lost the key weekly volume gap fill at $1.8622
This was the line in the sand that the bulls needed to maintain.
The fact that Natural GAs has lost the key supply zone shapes up for a likely bearish move lower. We are holding the 20 Day MA so Bull have one last hope at this level. Hope typically isnt a good strategy.
Based off of the RSI divergence, Nat gas may make new lows in the cycle before it has a bullish reversal.
Oil today was weak early on and then made a massive red to green reversal. We have observed every time oil dips into the daily EMA 113, it keeps getting gobbled up.
A bull flag on the daily chart is still being observed. XLE keeps moving higher as it sniffing out higher oil prices.
Oil for the month of February has higher prices compared to the month of January, this should put a higher bid on the CPI energy component tomorrow.
CVX drops and then starts to recover LONGCVX today dropped suddenly for unclear reasons. The possibility of a Israeli - Hamas War
cease-fire may have led to expectations that oil prices would fall as the shipping
quagmire in the Red Sea might stabilize. Later in the day OPEC+ announced a raised target of
$ 1.00 per barrel higher which on balance seems to be an offset maneuver. CVS in the drop
lost 2% printed a bear flag in about 90 minutes. i will use this opportunity to buy some all
options for September after the height of the summer driving seasons to add to my positions
in the futures ETF USO and OXY.
$XOM Is Undervalued. The logic is that price will gravitate to liquidity. Exxon Mobile seems to have an abnormal amount of liquidity sitting above all time highs. Gut says we take out those highs pretty soon.
Here are some other considerations:
-Exxon Mobil also currently has the highest percentage of short interest in modern history.
-The company has a low valuation of 11x earnings, pays a 3.66% dividend yield with over 40 years of consecutive annual dividend growth, and its balance sheet has a AA- credit rating.
-Exxon earns twice as much income and 7.5x as much revenue as Nvidia.
-Warren Buffett has been adding to their oil positions (Buffet Effect).
-Energy sector sentiment is quite poor.
Natural Gas - Before Ouching Territory, Let's Rally to $3.8One thing appears to be rather obvious: crude's rally has fizzled out:
Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally Annihilated
And that's bad news for bulls. If crude's rally has fizzled, can natural gas counter rally?
Well, natty hasn't done much all year. One of the reasons is probably that the world, which is controlled by the Communist Party, wants to SaVe ThE WoRlD FrOm CliMatE cHaNge by destroying the plastic industry, which natural gas supplied.
Next, they want to get rid of furnaces, which natural gas supplies, and have everyone live on heat pumps (an air conditioner with a blow side that can get hot instead of just cold), which rely on electricity and not natural gas.
At least electricity generation itself still mostly relies on natural gas, and that's never going to be replaced by solar and wind because the technology doesn't meet the requirements of modern consumption.
At the end of July, I called that Natty would not go up until it goes down more, because it seemed to me at the time that the charts just don't have institutional support to go uppy past $10 this year.
NatGas - No Moon Until Doom
\
Right now, if you want to go long on anything, because it doesn't matter if it's DoCToR CoPpEr or equities or gold, you have to be either low risk or hedged, because of the imminent threat of the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party.
Xi Jinping has the game theory problem of being the head of the most wicked and heinous regime in all of human history, the Party that dared to commit organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
Although that persecution was launched by former, and now-dead Chairman Jiang Zemin, and although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for years in his Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem is Xi is still the head of the Party, and you always kill a dragon by severing its head.
And its tail was already severed recently when former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by "an heart attack" at the ripe age of 68, which is very young for a Party prince to die.
If Xi dumps the CCP Gorbachev-USSR style in the middle of the night, especially if it happens on a Friday or a Saturday, everything is going to be gap down gap down gap down gap down and never come back because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan.
And if Xi really is too stupid to do that much, there's still a raging pandemic besieging Zhongnanhai, and the Emperor's bedroom has never been immune to plague.
So over the last few months, what's happened with natural gas is, it's up apparently a lot. Like, from $2.7 to $3.6 sort of a lot and looked almost rampy on the monthly bars until it corrected this November:
The weekly, though, shows the pain that the rallies keep getting sold off:
And this is because the rallies weren't really rallies. What would happen is one month would settle and the next month's contract, which is trading in contango, would roll in and give the appearance of uppy and smash up levered futures traders.
But the ETFs show that natty has done absolutely nothing all year.
UNG, which is an unlevered fund:
Is down 56% this year, hasn't rallied one bit, and looks poised to break necks around $4, because what doesn't go up is going to go down. It's been flat for too long.
2x leverage BOIL (long) had a 20:1 reverse split 6 months ago, never rallied, and looks pretty puketacular right now:
And 2x leverage KOLD (short):
Has spent 6 months in a 35% range killing options buyers in what looks like a "bear flag" that's just taken way too long to do the thing bear flags are supposed to do.
And so we can only surmise that the once-fabled $1.8 to $1.6 range on Natty is incoming.
Perhaps we'll see this magic before the end of the year.
If you want to short natty, I have some reservations that this $3.6 monthly high is going to remain the monthly high, because it was set on the first day of the month.
And so there is a potential trade opportunity, roughly now, to take out like $3.8 and net a 25% bagger.
Or just wait until $3.7 and go short on a size that you aren't going to get liquidated on until $5 and be willing to put up with $4 for a day or two.
But most importantly, natty couldn't possibly have topped at $10, and simultaneously couldn't possibly have bottomed at $1.9 with the way 2023 is playing out.
The most sadistic MMs on any asset are the Natty overlords and they're about to get started, I believe.
$XOM Short Swing EarningsNYSE:XOM just recently had earnings
I'm looking at swinging puts tomorrow because the Jeanius Algo Suite (Indicator/Screener) gave me multiple sell confluences:
Rose through 2 untested highs (~$104.91), grabbing liquidity
Retested the level that price broke to create a Change of Character (CHOCH)
Tested a downtrend line
Broke and retested an uptrend line
In a long term and short term structural downtrend
The indicator automatically painted the lines/zones on the chart
Exxon Mobil's Resilience: Surging Profits & Strategic Moves
Exxon Mobil ( NYSE:XOM ) has emerged from the challenging landscape of 2023 with a commendable financial performance, reporting a robust $36 billion profit for the year. The energy giant's earnings defied industry trends, surpassing estimates and signaling optimism for the future.
Beating Estimates
The beating of estimates is largely attributed to Exxon's ( NYSE:XOM ) adept navigation of volatile markets, particularly in fuels trading, and an upswing in oil and gas production. Despite the overall industry experiencing a one-third dip in profits due to fluctuating oil and gas prices in the aftermath of geopolitical events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Exxon CEO Darren Woods expressed confidence in the sector's normalization throughout 2023.
One key highlight is Exxon's ( NYSE:XOM ) strategic focus on its core oil production areas, notably the U.S. Permian Basin and Guyana. The company "opportunistically accelerated drilling activity" in these regions, demonstrating a commitment to robust production. Additionally, Exxon ventured into lithium production to meet the surging demand for electric vehicle batteries, aligning its strategies with the evolving energy landscape.
Financial Strength
The closing of 2023 showcased Exxon's ( NYSE:XOM ) financial strength, setting the stage for a promising 2024. Peter McNally, Global Sector Lead for Industrials Materials and Energy at Third Bridge, emphasized Exxon's strong financial position as it heads into the new year. However, the impending acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources is poised to be a game-changer, significantly increasing investments in the U.S. Exxon ( NYSE:XOM ) expects to finalize the deal in the second quarter, raising anticipation among investors.
Despite the positive narrative, Exxon did incur a $2.5 billion impairment charge for California properties that have been on the market for over a year. This, however, did not overshadow the company's overall performance, as annual income only fell 35% to $38.57 billion when excluding this charge.
Trading Division
Exxon's success in the fourth quarter was bolstered by a profitable trading division, which contributed a $1.1 billion boost to operating profit in the fuels business. CFO Kathryn Mikells highlighted the company's decision to consolidate global trading into a single division, a move that proved fruitful. Mikells also noted that this trend is expected to be an ongoing contributor to the company's positive results.
Furthermore, Exxon exceeded its cost-cutting targets, surpassing the $9 billion goal set in 2019 by an additional $700 million. The company's commitment to efficiency and fiscal responsibility is evident in its ability to deliver results even in challenging market conditions.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, Exxon ( NYSE:XOM ) plans to allocate $23 billion to $25 billion in capital spending for the year, a strategic move to prepare for projects slated for 2025. The company's proactive approach and resilience in the face of industry headwinds position it as a key player to watch in the evolving energy landscape.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Exxon Mobil's ( NYSE:XOM ) 2023 performance not only defied industry trends but also set the stage for a promising 2024. With strategic moves, a focus on core production areas, and a resilient trading division, Exxon Mobil ( NYSE:XOM ) is navigating the dynamic energy sector with confidence and forward-looking vision.
Natural Gas Bulls are alive / Oil looks ready to go!Nat gas saw a beautiful bullish reversal candle today.
this likely will yield more upside in the short term.
Even with this reversal, I believe Nat gas still goes lower after we complete this bounce.
Oil stocks showing strength as oil appears to be putting in a bottoming formation.
If oil breaks out, this will be a natural headwind for the market and tailwind for inflation.
$DXY pumping as are Yields and OilPretty good calls on the following:
(see our profile for more info)
The US #Dollar maintains its upward trend.
The 10yr #yield is also looking pretty decent.
The 30 Yr bottomed before the others and has been leading #interestrates.
#OIL broke downtrend and has been looking better.
XLE Energy stocks, time to buy? Oil has been creeping up lately. Today it triggered a bullish intraday pattern.
This intraday pattern if completes, sets up for a larger bullish daily chart pattern.
If this breakout in oil happens were going to see some energy stocks make moves liek the Semiconductors did today.
Many names like RIG, XOM, HAL, XLE put in daily bottoming tails.
Some energy stocks have much higher beta than others..be careful.
Not FA advice.
$XOM At Risk of Losing Support at Yellow Support ZoneXOM is at risk of losing support here. There was hope in OIL prices spiking due to the Red Sea crisis, which is affecting shipments of oil tankers. In terms of price action, XOM is at risk of losing support at this yellow support zone. I think we could get some tricky price action with a dip below and a bullish rebound.
EXXON MOBIL on the 1 year Support but on bearish bias.The Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is again testing Support 1 (97.85), which is holding since the March 13 2023 Low but on a bearish note as it recently broke below the October 2020 Higher Lows trend-line (was the long-term Support) and remains below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 12th week in a row.
This is obviously a long-term analysis on the 1W time-frame, but the chart can provide a clear view of the trend depending on the break-out. If the stock closes a 1W candle above the 1W MA50, we will turn bullish targeting $120.00 (just below Resistance 1). If it closes below Support 1, we will turn bearish targeting 84.50, just above Support 2 and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Note that the 1W RSI has been on a huge Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) since January 2022.
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ENERGY BETMy intention is to dollar-cost average on NYSE:OXY throughout this quarter. I'm aiming to acquire shares of this stock at a maximum price of $61 per share. Anticipating increased tension in the Middle East, especially around the Suez Canal, I foresee a potential disruption in hydrocarbon supply, likely impacting oil prices, whether significantly or insignificantly.
Simultaneously, there's a noticeable increase in yields on 20-year treasuries. Investors seem to be factoring in the possibility that the Fed might deviate from its plan to lower interest rates in 2024...
Please provide your opinions as I am not an expert in commodities or Oil! Thank you!
EXXON MOBIL: Strong buy at the bottom of a 1 year Rectangle.XOM has been trading inside a Rectangle pattern since the October 11th 2022 low and just last week the 1D RSI got oversold below 30.000. Now the 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 46.595, MACD = -1.790, ADX = 43.208) but that oversold level was the first buy signal as it took place very close to the Rectangle's bottom.
The second and final validation buy signal will be when the stock closes a 1D candle over the LH trendline. Yesterday it crossed over it but closed on it. We will take this opportunity to target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 115.00) as this was the minimum target that the previous three rallies hit.
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Exxon Mobil Shares Rise, Making Three-Day Winning StreakExxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) saw its shares climb by 0.39% to close at $104.29, contributing to an overall upbeat day on Wall Street as both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced significant gains. The S&P 500 surged by 1.91% while the Dow Jones increased by 1.43%, reflecting a positive sentiment among investors.
The rise in Exxon Mobil's stock price marked the end of a three-day winning streak for the oil and gas giant, which is still trading $16.41 below its year-high of $120.70 reached on September 28th. Despite this, the company's recent performance has been commendable, especially considering the robust advertisement campaign it has been running.
The trading volume for Exxon Mobil on Tuesday was recorded at 18.2 million shares, falling short of its average by 1.7 million. This lighter trading volume did not seem to hinder the stock's upward movement during the session.
Investors are keeping a close eye on Exxon Mobil's performance as it navigates through market fluctuations and continues to engage with its audience through strategic advertising efforts. The company's stock movement is part of a broader trend in the energy sector and reflects ongoing changes in global energy markets.
Insights
Exxon Mobil Corp. is a notable player in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry, with a significant market capitalization of $413.29B USD. The company's stock is known for its low price volatility, making it a potentially stable investment option.