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XOM

WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58.When it comes to oil, it was supposed to do the super moon back to $120 thing when Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party finally stopped welding people in their homes and going full blown technocratic social credit while humans tried to "fight" Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID-19), but for one reason or another, the pump never got off the ground. Probably because a whole lot more than the 87,468 people Xi and his CCP claim to have died from the disease are actually dead, and so demand is just legit in the toilet and industry can't get going, because China has big time problems stemming from its 23-year-long persecution of Falun Gong, which includes the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting (they've done it to Uyghurs too), and the Party's outright fetish for human rights, freedom of speech, and freedom of belief abuses. Being bullish on "China" is a totally separate thing from being bullish on "the Chinese Communist Party." One is extremely wise, while the other is totally moronic. Totalitarian regimes never last a long time, and the Party has already had more than a century. Clinging to Marxism is like clinging to the Titanic when it's 5/6ths of the way under the water. When it comes to WTI oil, both the fundamentals and the price action are strange. This is a commodity that you don't want to be very bearish on after it traded at literally $0 during 2020's western COVID pseudopandemic theatre hysterics. Yet, while oil also isn't liking to go down, it isn't liking to go up. In October, I had a pretty accurate call that WTI would plink the $70 range. WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict And a pretty good call in September too when everyone was convinced oil could never trade low again WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls But the ultimate endgame of the calls, $50, has not manifested. It seems as if perhaps these prices won't manifest, and it's almost time for the uppy. There's some problems with this narrative, however. The key factor is that the United States and its vassal states (including Canada) are the world's largest producers of oil, by far. Russia and OPEC combined are really the only challengers, but the US has the advantage in that you need the USD to buy oil, and so ultimately the Biden Administration is the legit market maker. The problem with the bull thesis is that the SPR was filled at $29.70 over the years while Biden and friends sold half of it off in the $80s and $90s. This inherently tells you not that they're trying to destroy themselves, but just that they're short on crude oil. The news in December, right after oil wicked the $70 mark, was that the Biden Admin was buying it all back . But then in January, the tune changed as the US Government said "The bids didn't come in low enough, so we haven't bought yet." Media says they want to buy around $70. And this brings us to our very strange price action in WTI. Crude has a gap at $85-86 and combines with a Dec. 1 pivot around $83, while recent trading activity was a triple top of successive lows at $82~. Then we dumped to $72, but did not make a new low, and have since bounced back to $80. All of this combines to give us no reason to believe that a hybrid short-killer/breakout trader-crusher play is not about to be made around the $88 level. This gives us 10% to the upside, which is really quite nice to work with when WTI trades 1,000 barrel lots and you also have access to the leveraged ETFs like UCO and SCO. But the bottom is not in. Look at the weekly candles. Oil just hasn't retested the long-term trendline from late 2021, and in combination with the US Government having been unwilling to refill the SPR at $75+, should give you all the reason in the world to be extra cautious with going long as more than a scalp. Under $60 **combining** with media chatter that Democrats are refilling the SPR is where you want to go long. And if you do it right, you'll get the bottom for what will quickly turn into $180. 2023 is going to be a wild year starting in July. If humanity makes it to 2024, it will be even more of a ride. TL;DR: Long to $88 --> Short to $55, and start treating Bloomberg's Javier Blass like Jim Cramer. Trade against the narrative. Be patient. It's too early for the next moon, yet $120 in '22 was no top. This should combine with natural gas being on the cusp of pumping: Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming Be careful, and trade safe.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
6
XOM- BULLISH SCENARIOExxon Mobil is one of the world’s largest and most successful companies. Its operations alone produce more income than the GDP of various small countries. The company has a pipeline of key projects in the Permian – the most prolific basin in the United States – and offshore Guyana. In the Permian, ExxonMobil has an inventory of more than 8,000 well locations, with the integrated energy major estimating a net of 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable resources. In offshore Guyana, it made several discoveries that XOM estimated at more than 10 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable resource. In the long term, the price is expected to continue the uptrend in the price channel with a price target of $ 124. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:XOMLong
by legacyFXofficial
XOM, Possible Long Term Play with around 200 targetExxon Mobil Corporation stock MAY see around 200 USD price in up coming years ! Today, we are going to investigate one of the giant oil companies. XOM has completed a complete ascending wave cycle from 1970 to 2020 . Impulsive section of this wave cycle was between 1970 and 2014 and corrective section started at 104.76 (former ATH) on 2014 and lasted for 6 years . On Mar 2020 stock bottomed with double bottom pattern at 30.11 USD around 0.786 Retracement level of the whole large time frame bull run. This complete wave cycle can be labeled as primary degree wave 1 and 2 of the larger degree wave cycle ( cycle degree). After end of primary degree wave 2 , a considerable up side move started which strongly broke multi years down trend line and reclaimed the ATH ( actually made a new one ). This strong and steep up going wave can be considered as primary degree wave 3 which can push the stock up to around 200 USD. This primary degree wave 3 can itself be divided to 5 intermediate wave degree and I suppose currently we are in wave 4 (minor degree ) of wave 1 (intermediate degree) of 3 ( Primary degree ). What all above explanation means? It means most probably we have an up side move from around 78 to around 116 USD . Then , a considerable correction of intermediate degree wave 2 of primary degree wave 3 may start which can hammer down stock to around 63 USD . After that , most powerful and steep wave will start which can break the upper bond dynamic resistance ( as this the typical character of wave 3 of 3) and lead the stock to above 150 USD. All other predicted wave moves are shown on the chart. Therefore, I certainly keep XOM in my watch list to open a profitable long position in appropriate time ( most probably in up coming weeks). Please note our chart is in monthly time frame and there may be many fluctuations in up coming weeks and days. In addition, timing on the chart may become incorrect as timing is the most difficult task in charting. Also I kindly ask you to keep in mind this is before the fact long term prediction and normally it may need some updates in future. I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
NYSE:XOM
by SaeedSajedi
22
$XLE - Weakness in the Energy Sector Could Bring Stage 4 DeclineThe Energy sector is notoriously one of the last to roll over in a recessionary environment and the $XLE chart appears to be topping out right on queue. After a euphoric run beginning in the middle of 2020, the Energy sector has stalled out creating a triple top near the $90 level. With the break of the 200-day moving average, along with an accompanying bearish momentum regime in the RSI, we expect the Energy sector to begin its descent into a Stage 4 decline. Many individual stocks within the Energy sector look prime for capitulation events and accompanying sector weakness would further aggravate already anemic charts. PT near 60.
AMEX:XLEShort
by Howtoswingtrade
OIL going to make BIG move soon1/2 We sold most longs in #OIL, trailing position left Been going long $UCO & shorting puts @ lows We want back in, why? There's something brewing in middle east area More on this later Chart is too much, explain in next post $USO $CVX $XOM $MPC $SUN - 2/2 Short term #oil is on a slight uptrend (white) It also more recently trades in channel (yellow) Longer term it's HUGE Head & Shoulder (top) If there is #war is larger conflict in middle east $UCO & oil will rally hard However, if there's nothing, it'll crater, temporarily
NYMEX:CL1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$XOM: Strong uptrendNice setup here in $XOM, new 52 week highs on higher than average volume with a Time@Mode trend signal confirmation this week. Monthly and yearly trends are up, overall oil stocks could continue being the best prospect with a potential rebound in inflation figures coming next, Russia 'cutting' production (likely forced to do so by the effect of crippling sanctions) and China reopening boosting aviation fuel demand, while the economy possibly dodges a recession, and business investment goes back to pre-pandemic trend levels, among other factors. The latest State of the Union speech has likely contributed to weakness in US Treasury bonds, and coupled with NFP might have triggered rotation back into value/energy from growth names ahead of CPI data. All in all, low risk to follow this development and be positioned in value stocks and particularly energy for the coming months (and likely years). Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:XOMLong
by IvanLabrie
1
Oil is screaming...what should we be aware of?Oil the leading energy commodity is signaling negative price action. An MTop Formation is on watch. If we get a weekly close below $70 it triggers the Topping formation and sways the probabilities in favor's for more downside action. This large time frame pattern has a potential to go down to $20...I know, I can barely believe it myself. A clear weekly reversal rejection has been observed off a key resistance. Downward momentum is in play. Next potential but level im watching is $65/$66 as oil will have technical support bounces.
TVC:USOIL
by Trading-Capital
1
Is XOM a sell for the rest of this week? $110 or below?I have been patiently waiting for a break above $114.16 on XOM. (Typically very even level resistance and support levels are great traps to reverse us the opposite direction of the initial breakout) When we got it we immediately fell below on the retest, leading me to believe this is a false breakout to trap buyers from more volume based on earnings. Additionally, once we started selling above $117, we reclaimed the zone and retested earlier this morning and immediately rejecting all the way back down o $113. If the potential lower high is at $115.84 and can stay under $116, I think there's room to $110 or below. Fed day is over, have we already had our fun for this week?
NYSE:XOMShort
by Macks_MoneyTree
SHEL, CVX, XOM SWING TRADE IDEASWith Oil companies reporting earnings and also a majority of them attempting to break ATH, I have my eyes on SHEL, CVX, and XOM. CVX and XOM already reported earnings and did not have an all around beat but CVX beat revenue and XOM beat earnings! SHEL is set to report their earnings on Thursday pre- market and I will be looking to enter into a swing in either direction. By using the 50, 100, and 200MA on the Daily timeframe, I am able to see my support levels to the downside. If we get a daily close below the 50ma at 57.30, I will look to swing it down to the 100ma at 55.11. If we can close below the 200ma on the D, at 54.58, I will look to hold this swing for a while, as it completes the double top pattern found on the D. Now, a break above 61.50/62.50 would be a new 3 year high with its next resistance Level found around 66.50/67. This is where my bias lies because I believe the energy sector, oil companies in particular, will have a bullish run this year. However, I will trade what I see, not what I think! Happy Trading!
NYSE:SHEL
0
by WSBB
1
WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global ConflictA lot of fundamentals say that oil should be going up. A lot of Twitteratti and furus say that oil should be going up. Yet, it's not. Oil hasn't been bullish since literally June . The only reason sentiment is still confusedly bullish like this is because WTI isn't (yet) trading like bonds. People say that OPEC+ cutting production was some kind of battle with Washington and that the Biden Administration are doing some green energy nonsense saboteuring the country by selling off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), because Joe Biden is senile. That's not what's happening. Are you high? The United States is going to endanger its energy reserves while it's in a war with Russia? Don't be fooled by appearances. You need to start exercising critical thinking. In my view, what has transpired is pretty simple: 1. The Biden Administration said they would refill the SPR at $80 2. When WTI fell to $76, instead of refilling it, they sold more of the SPR 3. They keep selling more of the SPR on this bounce at $80 and 90 4. The average price the SPR was filled at, the last time I looked, was $60 So why did OPEC+ cut production? Because they're smart money and they realized the United States is short on oil. The U.S. and its vassals (including Canada) are by far the largest producers of oil in the world. It's their market, especially while Russia is out of the picture, and whoever makes the market sets the price. So OPEC+ understands that oil is going down and cuts production accordingly. When the Biden Administration refills the SPR, that's the bottom, WTI will bounce hard, and OPEC will increase production again. This is a lot of words to tell you that oil is going to make new lows, not new highs. This call that I made at the beginning of September is still definitely in play. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls There are some really important factors to look at in the longer timeframe charts. Consider that we're almost all the way through October and yet WTI, while it's in a bearish market shift, has not made a monthly low: This is even more obvious on the Weekly, where a gap is revealed: This ~$80 January gap range has now been traded extensively but has not produced the requisite re-continuation of a bull run needed, which means that lower prices are on the way. The reason is, $120 was not the top. A big number like $180 or $220 is incoming, probably in 2023, but before then comes manipulation and accumulation, frankly speaking, probably in the $50 range. Whether bulls want to hear that or not or want to believe that or not, that's how it goes. Not very many people believed Natural Gas was going to go from $10 to $4.9 either, but it did. Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The big wild card right now is actually not the conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO/Washington via Ukraine as a proxy. Even less is it whether the Federal Reserve keeps clowning around with interest rates. Xi Jinping was just crowned leader of the notorious Chinese Communist Party for an unprecedented third term and has consolidated the Politburo with only his own people. But more concerningly, the man who should be fulfilling his historic role to collapse the CCP from within a la Gorbachev instead was quoted by ABC as having made communism and the deteriorating CCP "absolutely central to China's development and future." This amounts to an abject disaster in Xi Jinping's life, a disaster for the Chinese people, and a disaster for the human race. If man won't do something about the problem of the Chinese Communist Party and its campaign of organ harvesting Falun Gong, then Heaven will. The CCP may or may not attack Taiwan. That's a major wildcard in this call. Personally, I don't think the Party has enough stability while being sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia and hit by economic problems to really dare do it. Yet, the more imminent a possible attack on Taiwan is, or the more imminent a major escalation with Russia is, the more violently the US oil market makers will dump WTI/Brent to where they want it to be so they can accumulate and refill the SPR. How you want to trade it and what you want to do is up to you. But I believe we see a number like $89 on WTI this week and I intend to go long on bear ETFs with a target under $50 imminent by January. Oil is something that is going to make a violent and impressive new high, but those cowboys are not going to let early money and dumb money come along for the ride particularly easily. Be careful. Humanity has officially entered the most dangerous moment, and at a period where we're already in the proverbial "Triple Overtime." What you believe can happen and what is actually happening, in reality, are often two different things.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Will Exxon march higher or perform a fake out?Since our previous post on Exxon Mobil, it has increased significantly in value against our expectations. Unfortunately, with the upcoming earnings, the stock might get an additional boost in price, which is already hovering near all-time highs. As a result, XOM breaking above $114.66 will force us to abandon our price target on the downside. However, even if a breakout occurs, we will continue to pay close attention to subsequent price action and monitor volume very closely. To support the idea of a fakeout, we would like to see a continual drop in volume accompanying price growth on the daily chart (just like on the monthly chart). As for the outlook beyond the short-term, we remain worried that ranging oil prices between $70 and $85 per barrel will threaten the well-being of this stock title. Furthermore, higher taxes on energy companies, economic slowdown, and oil down more than 35% since its 2022 peak will put pressure on further price increases. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the hourly chart of XOM. The yellow arrow points to a technical glitch at NYSE, which saw multiple stock companies plunge and turn on circuit breakers. We can potentially discard this movement. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly chart of XOM. The red arrow indicates a continual decline in volume, which is a bearish technical development. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of XOM and the updated setup. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:XOM
by Tradersweekly
45
Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2"My previous call on natural gas made Sept. 19 has come to fruition, achieving all three targets, and in a shorter than expected period of time: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The question I've asked myself for the last few days is simply: Now that the June lows have been taken out, is it time for a reversal? And frankly, I don't believe a (sustained) reversal is imminent, mostly because I really do believe $18 NG1 is incoming and these market makers, who are total maniacs, will not make it so easy for one to go long. Things to keep in mind when we're so close to the end of the month and major lows have been achieved: 1. Look out for bounces as monthly candle wicks are painted 2. Look out for monthly candle highs to be painted in the first days/weeks of November 3. Big volume gaps between $6.3 and $5. "It's only 23%!" 4. Big bounce from $4.9 to $5.3 June lows are likely Trendlines are astrology, for real. Stop believing in them. No banks and no trading floors at Shell, Exxon, Aramco, Gazprom, are sitting there thinking of what to do with billions of dollars of inventory and drawing a diagonal line between two lows and thinking to themselves about such and such "support." That is truly absurd. Yet, you should pay attention to these things because, to the contrary, they're used to fleece dumb money. The markets revolve around fleecing dumb money, and there are entire funds with billions of dollars of dumb money. To put this trendline into perspective, although it looks reasonable on the 4H, look how absurd this is on the monthly: That being said, it's also reasonable on the 1W and 1D charts: & We are notably at that point, below the psychological $5 level and more or less at the trendline, and at the end of the month. When June made its Armageddon move downwards it came right as the monthly contract closed, so I personally do not expect a repeat of the same situation. I think a bounce to $5.3 is more or less inevitable, and I suspect rather than break through it and act like Silver/Gold/WTI has retracing to newer highs, it will bounce off the low and manufacture the kind of "resistance" found in technical analysis books to encourage late shorts. Early November may actually show us a more bullish impulse back to $6, but keep in mind that to get back to that mid-October weekly gap would more or less fill the entire October monthly bar with a November wick, so that gap is likely a breakaway gap that will stay in place for some time. Anyways, what I expect to see is after some retrace to catch late shorts and squeeze and break them, as well as to exploit early bulls, we will see a retrace, one that won't last long and will probably be quickly accompanied by another breakaway gap. I believe that natural gas will, in a very quick period of time, actually print a number as low as $2.9, a move that will be accompanied by WTI also setting new lows and approaching $50, as I noted in a recent call: WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict Europe has already filled their coffers with $9-10 US LNG delivered via boat and until they need to refill the barrels in a few months after Freeport is re-opened, prices should be suppressed as producers and funds get net long on energy. The reason is, problems between NATO and Russia and problems between the World and the Chinese Communist Party under the new found "Emperor" Xi and his delusional miscalculation to stay attached to Marxist-Leninism and communism will lead the Party to either attack Russia alongside NATO or to pinch both Russia and NATO with an assault on Taiwan. Energy will be _extremely_ expensive everywhere once the global conflict breaks out. But as with all such moves, first come lows that are more uncomfortable than early bulls and scared bears are comfortable with. 2023 will not be a pleasant year, so make sure you do your utmost to have a proper Christmas with your family and act like a good person. Whoever you are who is reading this, what I want to tell you is this: If you want a future, you need to start by first rejecting communist culture, especially all things Marxist-Leninism. Next, you need to reject the Chinese Communist Party, for it is guilty of the crime of live organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong and will be purged by history. Third, you need to start to emphasize virtue and improve your conduct and morality on a foundation of traditional human culture. I am not talking about dogma, and I am not talking about religion. Both of those are totally useless. I am talking about a rational understanding of what it means to be "a human being," the things that have allowed this civilization and this cycle of history to persist over the last 5,000 years, founded on the back of the Chinese dynasties. There are so many lessons in history. I hope that whoever has the fortune to encounter my words can walk out of the catastrophe. But if your thoughts are unrighteous, then if you can't, you can't. Regrets, however, will be no help at all. It's just like poker: you have to figure it out and have your bets placed before the cards are turned face up. Once the truth is revealed, everything is fixed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
14