How To Be ContrarianMy goal is to try to make traders and investor THINK DIFFERENTLY about markets. I believe as humans we seek validation, comfort in affirming our beliefs, and that manifests in the wild swings of the market when the narrative is proven wrong. Back in January 2021 I made an uncomfortable bet on Exxon NYSE:XOM . It was uncomfortable at the time because the narrative was that "dirty energy" was dead, oil was going down to $12/barrel, and EV was the future. These may very well all be true... but it was early. And in investing; being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable. At the time, Exxon was trading below book value (market cap < assets-liabilities on balance sheet), it offered a 7% dividend yield which they did not cut, and had just hit a double bottom. It was NOT obvious at the time... only in hindsight. But these are the types of contrarian trades that investors MUST look at to achieve outsized gains.
XOM
XOM - Re-Testing the L-MLHXOM is super strong.
I use my favorite tool, the pitchfork, to apply projections of price, filtering, find entries, exits etc.
What many pitchfork traders don't understand is, that they can't just apply this tool to the chart. I see many doing it wrong anyways, which has to do with identifying the correct pivot/swing/pendulum swing points, and not being aware of the rules.
However, using the rules is equally important. Because the rules define the framing around this tool. Otherwise it's worth nothing, or even harmful to the trader.
One of the rules says, that if price is trading outside the pitchfork, it often is going to test/re-test the line where it fell/zoomed out of.
In this case it's the L-MLH, the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. As we see, the first test was just a couple days ago. Now, it looks like XOM is re-testing the L-MLH again.
What happens after the re-test?
a) price is either strong enough to trade back into the projected pitchfork again, recapturing the previous slope/path of price.
or
b) price will trade to the next WL (Warning Line), going south or eating up time by trading sideways.
As a firm believer in the rules of the pitchfork, I'm long this stock, playing for a re-test at the L-MLH.
Ascending Triangle in the XLEThe Macro trends of 2022 are no secret to any of us. Sky rocketing inflation and the war in Ukraine have lead to soaring energy costs around the world. As a result, Oil has seen a period of extreme volatility, reaching a high of closing high price of 129.44 on March 8th. As a result, the XLE has followed suit and is up about +30% year to date. Exxon, the largest holding in the XLE, reports earnings on April 29th and has expressed that the anticipate setting record profits. Buy the rumor?
The XLE appears to be forming a nice Ascending Triangle, which could be suggesting a bullish continuation. The Ascending Triangle isn't a particularly strong pattern from a statistical perspective with only about a 60% chance of realizing the bullish continuation. Take it with a big grain of salt, but there is also a very slight Hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD. Nevertheless, it warrants paying attention to as a potential swing trade.
A lot will depend on what Oil does, and the fact that XOM and CVX are reporting earnings on the 29th muddies the waters a bit. However, it could offer a nice opportunity for a shot in the dark trade to the upside looking for a pop the upside in advance of the earnings. Maybe something like an OTM Call spread around the .30 delta in XLE 30 days out or so...
XOM bullishI have been showing many positions with bearish direction recently. This position is meant to be a hedge to many of those, and this is one of the very few I could find that look really good bullish. So going to do the Apr 1 84/86 bull call vert. I like the trade a lot but it is mostly to offset many of the shorts I have open, so I am making this position larger than normal.
ENSV and Oil, Up Up and Away?I'm still researching, i.e. justifying my bag holding, XOM and NINE have both had good surprises for their earning reports. We'll keep an eye on the rest of the sector as they have earnings reported, but I suspect they are all going to be good surprises for a big win in the next week or two.
3/13/22 XOMExxon Mobil Corporation ( NYSE:XOM )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Integrated Oil)
Market Capitalization: $359.517B
Current Price: $84.92
Breakout price: $83.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $82.90-$77.15
Price Target: $85.00-$86.20 (Reached), $98.00-$100.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 50-52d
Contract of Interest: $XOM 6/17/22 105c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.25/contract
Shorting Exxon. XOMGoals 73, 72, 70. Invalidation at 88.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
XOM coming in hot!$XOM coming in as a hot commodity right now, with the possibility of banning Russian oil in the US and other allied countries.
left the other oil producers to be on the hot list for possible back up producer to counter the banning. for the people who doesn't know,
Russia is the 3rd largest oil and natural gas producer in the world. with the banning being imposed, this will take a toll on most countries
who relied on Russian oil and gas making a possible world wide shortage of oil and natural gas if the other oil producer can't keep up.
Day trade or scalp target play: 03/ 08 /22
Buy call above 85.06 sell at 86.36
Buy puts below 83.67 sell at 81.74
Hello everyone,
welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play )
I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities
for day trades or scalp play.
If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below.
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more.
My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
Exposure to Flying oil prices..!Entry: The market opening price
Stop loss: 74
Reward/Risk: 2-2.3
Target range: 105
Time Frame: 4-12 wks
Possible gain: 20-25%
Possible loss: 10-12%%
Position size: 5% of trading capital
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
$XOM hot commodity!$XOM has been one of the hot commodity for the past the few months. gas prices keeps surging up and up due to various reasons.
for now, oil started to cool down after hitting the ATH and continues trend lower below ema line for the past few days
for momentum move. although its started to pulls back, there's a possibilities that it might bounce back up due to war conflict
between the two countries Ukraine and Russia. once the war is officially started the oil might start move again due to possible high demand.
overall, the market is still very bearish and specially the tech market. please trade cautiously.
Day trade or scalp target play: 02/22/22
Buy call above 76.90 sell at 78.90
Buy puts below 76.10 sell at 75.31
Hello everyone,
welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play )
I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities
for day trades or scalp play.
If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below.
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more.
My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
XOM- USO oil overdone!The oil trade has the masses crowding the same trades banks and energy up 26% in 5 weeks. Considering the economic data, the start of a bear market, slowing economy, possible rate hikes and the shift to EV oil got way ahead of itself and I would expect a 12-15% correction in the coming weeks. Some would look at this chart and call a breakout, I think an 8 year high in oil going into a slowing economy is reminiscent of 2008 when oil hit $151 intraday was a blowoff top, the same time Goldman Sachs was pounding the table predicting $250 a barrel oil, within a couple months later oil hit $35. I think as usual the crowd is wrong here and I am usually a contrarian on everything! BTW, Feb 9th is XOM ex-dividend date so likely the stock will remain artificially elevated until then. GL
XOM 3-2-2 continuation? XOM had a beautiful Friday. The rev strat setup was lovely and it pushed immediately. Energy has been doing well, so I think it's still on watch. Possible corrective activity, or just a continuous push. If you can catch the bounce, trade it back into FTFC. Can play this both ways or just watch for the move.
$XOM update $XOM update
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I have a huge tolerance for volatility so please know that. If you’re new to my trade setups please try them on a small scale first. Then go in with a risk you’re comfortable with.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time)
And most importantly… Have fun, y’all!!
(\_/)
( •_•)
/ >🚀
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I have a huge tolerance for volatility so please know that. If you’re new to my trade setups please try them on a small scale first. Then go in with a risk you’re comfortable with.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time)
And most importantly… Have fun, y’all!!
(\_/)
( •_•)
/ >🚀
$XOM Short - OverboughtXOM looks over extended and approaching heavy resistance after ER pop.
I like the short setup here with MARCH 80 puts opened today, looking for some retracement / pullback expected to cool off the RSI. This isn't a long term idea, just to profit off the expected profit taking that's expected after such a strong move to the upside.
First target is $77.5
XOM Exxon Mobil Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emission | Price TargetsToday i have 2 relevant price targets for your from the most prestigious analysts: The Goldman Sachs Group prediction is $83 for XOM, which is most likely (to hit the resistance level) and Bank of America which has an optimistic price target of $95.
The price targets are plausible, since there is a possible disruption to European energy supplies because of Russia - Ukraine border crisis.
and
Crude oil prices will likely stay at the 7 year high since OPEC+ will keep the existing policy of gradual increase of production.
XOM will spend $3bn in the next five years on a new low-carbon business unit. They also bought a 49.9% stake in Norwegian biofuels company Biojet AS to achieve its target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Exxon Goal for 2050 is Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
Exxon Mobil haven`t cut the dividends, like other companies, even though in 2020 they had negative earnings, -22.44Bil.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.