XRP forecast - how to trade in a falling market?For 7 weeks in a row, the price of XRP has been falling steadily. Unfortunately, we couldn't find a more positive start to our forecast. The sellers managed to break through the global range of $0.55 . So far, the breakdown of this range can be fixed on the daily timeframe. Weekly candle has not closed yet. Taking into account the breakdown of the global critical point of $0.55, buyers can be more active and start a rebound to the level of $0.80.
However for such a scenario to occur it is necessary:
1) Close the weekly candle above $0.57
2) Not to allow the sellers to renew the local low during the trading week of May 16.
Only after these conditions are met, it is possible to buy XRP with low risks with the final target of $0.80 . However even in such trading situation stop order should be placed below $0.47.
The prospect of XRP falling as low as $0.24. How the price can reach this mark (slowly or LUNA) is unknown. It should be understood that the cryptocurrency market is not in the state that you need to risk your deposit for long-term positions now. There should be a separate deposit for such trading.
There is no light at the end of the tunnel in the XRP market on the daily timeframe.
The sellers confidently broke through the $0.55 range on May 9. The breakdown was on high volumes. On the same volumes, the buyers began to form a rebound. However the daily candle of May 10 was no competition. This fact shows that the sellers are very strong at the moment. Even if the XRP gets to $0.55-$0.58 , that will be the last target before the new wave of decline begins. That's why if we look for long position in XRP cryptocurrency, we should go 8-10% up with a short stop order.
It will be clear from what the next wave of decline looks like whether the sellers are exhausted or not. If the sellers have a harder time renewing the local lows, with trading volumes increasing, we expect a medium-term bounce of the XRP price from $0.43. That is the range where we will look to buy XRP in the medium term. However, we do not place limit orders, as it is important to see the dynamics of price movement in the range of $0.55-0.43.
The importance of the current critical point in the XRP market is underscored by the weekly chart of XRPBTC price movement:
The chart shows that the critical point (base 0.000015) is under buyer control. If this range is held during May, buyers will have a very high chance of starting a new wave of growth without sinking the cryptocurrency into a global bottom.
In addition, the price of BTC has not yet broken through the main range of $29,000 and may start a new local wave of growth within the global consolidation (29,000-60,000).
We posted our long-term bitcoin forecast about this recently:
However, if on the weekly timeframe of XRPBTC we see that the price consolidates below 0.000015 - we should run away from XRP market for a long time. In that case, the minimum downside target is 30%.
The conclusions of our forecast:
1) For spot trade in intermediate-term range we should expect either fixing of the price above $0.55 or test of $0.43 (conditions of price movement in the range of $0.55-0.43 should be met)
2) At the moment of forecast writing we may consider a short-term long position till $0.55 (counter-trend agreement with a stop order lower than $0.48)
3) The probability of XRP falling to $0.24 is quite high in the long term. This scenario will become relevant if buyers fail to take control of the $0.55 range after starting to bounce back from $0.43.
Be careful when trading a highly volatile falling market . In case of little experience, in such a market the main task is to save the deposit!
