How today put me on the sidelinesThose of us in the crypto community investment world face unique , often unpredictable challenges .
Divergent press. Entities such as C.C.N. and Nulltx, and others who when the market is up start spamming tradeview with negative bias, and when it's down make public the often absurdly laughable predictions of riches. The people who own and control the press represent big money , and big money comes with incessant greed. They will publish stories simply to try to buy in cheaper, at your expense. If only divergent press were bullish like the klinger.
2. Crypto as an asset, yet with a forex aspect. Today I was doing well. Made a few here and there off some unexpected price trends, like BCH- who ever thought THAT would happen?? But primarily I was into XRP today. We all know that various exchanges couple currencies. It is the oft used complaint about how Bitcoin pulls the market , but today it did so in an insidious fashion.
Nothing moves like crypto , and if you re here , you likely have some belief in the future of money being digital. Today defied almost every metric as I watched in horror as the price of XRP plummeted , with only one metric showing it would do so. EASE of movement, exponential. It bottomed out as the price of XRP rose against Bitcoin , which also rose. At some point the Forex factor came into play. In reverse though; XRP's gain against BTC , combined with positive BTC activity brought it tumbling down. When a gain on another currency causes a drop vs. fiat things get confusing.
3. Why the forex factor?? I use a variety of exchanges on tradeview to measure price , as well as the metrics offered by the exchange I happen to be on that day. I seem destined to learn the hard way. The prices began to fall in a way that made no sense. The order books were getting washed , with the prices of XRP dropping so quickly it was hard to sell in time. A later look showed what should have been a positive for XRP , a gain in value against BTC. Herein is another problem with coupling. An opportunity for arbitrage set in at one point, and with the price of BTC on the rise , people were dumping their XRP in the one place I didn't look - XRP-BTC.
4. We aren't just holding commodities , there is a forex element in play here , and Forex is the one thing I can think of as more volatile than crypto. Even now, XRP is down from what looked like a promising rally. You can have 7 , 8 different metrics on your screen , measures of volatility , AXM/DMS , Elder Ray , Fractal Chaos - what ever floats your boat , but the only one that gave warning as to what was about to happen was EASE of movement. Set to exponential , it really works, and it nosedived just prior to the price. When what seemed to be a recovery from rock bottom turned into what seemed like a nightmare with no end in sight - long , red bars on tradeview stopping for nothing and nobody , panic ensued.
5. I am not a financial advisor , and have learned my lessons the hard way. One does NOT HODL. Not if you want to retain risk capital. Using market order is a ripoff , just as instant is , yet the velocity of the downturn made executing the sale from tradeview nearly impossible.
6. This market has NOT yet seen it's bottom , contrary to what the press would like you to believe. Certain currencies may have , others may become worthless. On a day like today , crypto feels like playing with dice.
7. Coinbase has now coupled and added several currencies. Coinbase has a dubious history. In times past a coinbase listing was a "pump," later it became more of a dump, but one of the worlds most popular platforms has coupled currencies that they hadn't before. Claiming to own so much BTC and LTC , one can see where that influence plays a part.
8 I apologize for urging people not to panic. I am not urging you to go ahead and do so , and I am no financial advisor , but I firmly believe that crypto is now the equivalent of an online casino.
With the additional couplings come a whole new set of parameters , and it is not just coinbase that I speak of. You are engaging in a form of forex now with only one advantage, you wont lose more than you put in. Unless of course you margin trade - and good luck with that.
9. Cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly centralized. That is just plain obvious , and if you dont think so , read the coinbase headline. Look at the consolidation of mining power and pools, with so many lost to the bear market of 2018 , we face that threat as well as the Banks goal of Fractional Reserve Centralized Cryptocurrency. They will even tell you that we NEED it. Most terrible things are sold to us in the service of convenience , yet turn out to be anything but. The IMF , World bank etc. are all salivating at the eventual goal of globalization , and if you are reading this , your using the technology that threatens to bring us down. The internet of places and things is quickly becoming the internet of money.
10. Crypto faces state level sanctions. Do you believe that Iran and other countries levied with financial sanctions will be permitted to simply skirt by them using crypto?? Don't drink that batch of Kool-Aid.
I think the only way to win at this point is shorting , and carefully hedging your bets , because thats what they are - bets. If you want to see a 10 or 20 percent return on the lucky crypto of the day , you had best keep a close watch on that screen , and a stop loss that covers your fee's.
Caveat emptor.
