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XRP: The RevelationHey everyone! I believe lots of things happened since last year and it is time to provide you an update about XRP! I have been working really hard to improve my skills and will try to share the most of it through this analysis. Most of Crypto Traders (CT) believe that XRP is in capitulation and has not finished its downtrend cycle as new lows have been found in August 2019 at nearly $0.24. However, other indicators such as market cycle, RSI, volume or Elliot Wave (EW) count are telling us another story. What does it mean and what can we expect next? A) The Neglected Essential: Volume So where to look at it? A longer timeframe is always more significant than a lower timeframe. In that sense I will mainly use long-term timeframes for my analysis including Monthly, 10 days, weekly or daily to focus on details. I would like to start analyzing volume as it represents the activities of traders. In my opinion it is the most important indicator. It should not be ignored. On the monthly chart Price and volume are declining – however XRP finds higher lows but volume reaches lower highs. From volume perspective - It means that sellers are getting purged…It is more and more difficult for bears to short the market… What does it mean? Imagine you have a sponge in your hand and you finish cleaning your dishes – what you would like to do is to remove the water from the sponge as much as you can. You will eventually press the sponge, so the water can get out… Then you let it bigger and press on it again to remove the water until it gets dry. A market maker is more or less like you trying to remove the water from the sponge. So, your money is the water and the sponge is the price on the market, when there is no water anymore, nothing much should happen until a Pizza is delivered and the dishes need to be cleaned again. I hope it makes sense On the Monthly Chart: On the weekly chart – it is exactly the same: B) Japanese Candles I believe the Japanese candle is the second most important indicator and will be a catalyst for the next XRP bull run – We usually expect a Hammer or a Doji for a reversal – but there is nothing to see for the moment… I am looking for a nasty candle! I would like you to pay attention to the size of the wicks vis-à-vis the open and close candles – We can clearly see that they are getting bigger since April 2019: May / December 2017: March / December 2016: C) RSI and MACD XRP is printing a bullish divergence with the RSI/MACD on the weekly chart – it means that the price is declining but MACD and RSI are producing lower lows: This is also true on the 10 Days chart: Please – pay attention to MACD on the 10 days chart–the diagram and EMEAs are producing lower lows– it is bullish. It is the same on the weekly chart – I am very much looking at the current last bars - if they are able to reverse - it would be a bullish signal. D) Elliot Wave Count I believe the last Bullrun from 2013 to 2017 was an impulse wave 12345 (1 is often not counted by CT because it is not visible on Poloniex – I took the data from Coinmarketcap). If we assume that XRP is bullish, which is objectively true today when looking at the weekly or monthly chart – XRP is moving up: We can potentially say that wave 4 corrected in April / May 2017 through a contracting triangle as per shown below: If it holds true – there is a strong likelihood that XRP should end its consolidation in that area as per described by Prechter – (waves C or Z generally correct in wave 4 area). For XRP – it would correct between $0.13 and $0.28 following this rule…. September 2018 would be called “X” because of -subdivision inside wave W (I am not going in too much details – maybe later) -volume of X -nature of the move – when XRP spikes, it is strong and straight (as wave 1, 3 and 5) If this thesis is true, Y must be an ABC correction and cannot correct in WXY (however C of ABC can be a WXY as per shown in red). I believe ABC is therefore a Flat and should normally correct at nearly $0.20 – Interestingly – I have found a confluence of price extension through the current price movement from end of August until beginning of September 2019 at 1. Moreover, we can clearly see that the previous price moves have already reacted quite well to 0.618 extension at $0.32 /0.786 at $0.272 C would correct at 1 at nearly $0.20 Y of C would correct at 0.618 / 0.65 at nearly $0.20 / $0.205 Little C (not visible here) of C would correct at nearly $0.20 Elliot wave is very practical and powerful but because of alternate counts – I believe I would need more confirmations from other indicators before assuming such scenario. E) Supports/Resistances and moving average I am sure that everyone has seen the analysis of MagicPoopCannon - Available here: I would like to thank him for his work. I partially agree with him – I like the channel he has drawn but I would like to drag your attention on 2 important points: 1) Data is missing – MagicPoopCannon has only taken what is available on Poloniex and started his trend from X whereas the trend started from wave 1 (available on Coinmarketcap) – In that sense, I have decided to complete the channel. 2) Major supports and resistances are being played here and they strongly influence the current price movement. Again, my method consists of starting from wave 1 (XRP reached nearly $0.06 on December 2013 to reach wave 5 at nearly $3.40 in December 2017). I have drawn a parallel trend-line that is interesting enough to be in parallel to wave 4 as well… To validate this channel, I have created a middle line (red) and assessed if the price was reacting to it as a support or resistance…It clearly does as per shown below. This trend-line was used as a resistance in 2015: From 2017 to 2019 – this trend-line has proved to be reacting to XRP price movement more than once as per show below… Could we then assume that XRP could go to $0.07 as it appears to be the next support? In this chart, you will find all the necessary details to understand my logics… Yes, it is a possibility but we are not here yet – more battles need to be done before… Moreover, XRP can definitely move sideways until March May 2021 in order to kiss the blue trendline… I am not a big fan of this scenario as I am looking for confluences through a variety of methods and indicators. For the moment, let’s have a look at the intermediary/current supports and resistances and see how XRP is reacting to them… I have drawn a neckline (purple) from X to the point of resistance/support (red). It was a resistance in 2015 but was broken in May 2017. Hence, could we imagine that the price could now be tested on that support in purple at nearly $0.20/ $0.22? From wave 3 to wave W (yellow) I have been able to draw a trendline – I consider this trendline important as it is built across point of congestions / accumulations where XRP strongly bounced between May and December 2017. From wave 5 (yellow) to have (b) (white) I have drawn a second trendline that was used as a resistance – we can see that XRP was strongly rejected in December 2017 as well as in June 2019. From there, it is easy to identify a descending triangle – which is bullish. Moreover, the purple trendline previously described is crossing over the support of the triangle at nearly $0.20 / $0.22. For the moment, everyone is very excited to long this area but I would not, excepted if I get more confirmations. Indeed, I have drawn a symmetrical trendline in this triangle and found that the price is currently struggling to break that resistance. It can break it but it would face the resistance of the triangle and will likely be rejected to the bottom of the triangle where the purple neckline is waiting to be tested Last but not least XRP is moving quite well around EMEA 200 / 233 on the weekly chart. We can see that it is currently playing against the symmetrical neckline in orange but sitting nicely on EMEA 200… Why not testing EMEA 233 (blue) after being rejected by the symmetrical resistance and generating a nasty candle like a hammer on EMEA 233 (blue)? F) Time I believe I could have put this chapter at the beginning of my analysis as time is very important, probably as much as volume. My method here consisted of using the Market Template developed by Mark Minervini to identify cycles Stage 1: Neglect Phase: Consolidation Mark described this cycle has Dead Money where more interesting assets could be traded instead Stage 2: Advancing Phase: Accumulation Volume is increasing and shows a good support from institutional investors – this is when price start to spike up. Stage 3: Topping Phase: Distribution The price is increasing but also dropping back and forth – this is when the average Joe are entering the market while professionals are selling Stage 4: Declining Phase: Capitulation: The market is declining while the market makers try to shake all the weak hands Interesting enough, I have captured the price of XRP through Fibonacci numbers including 988 / 610 / 377 / 233 / 144 and 89. I have found that a new cycle starts every 233 days – this is confirmed by the top and bottom in 2017 and 2018 but also from August/September 2018 to January 2019 From each end of cycles, I have counted 89 days and found that the cycles described by Mark were perfectly matching inside each of this 89 days cycle. In that sense, we are potentially in the Stage 2: Accumulation Phase if my analysis is correct… Moreover, counting 144 days from the cycle helped me to identify how the price was moving against a trend-line that are all parallel to each other and where the price of XRP is moving constantly toward it. This is another confluence/confirmation of the above cycles. Conclusion A) XRP is showing a decline of volume while price is reaching higher lows – It is true on the monthly, 10 days and weekly/daily chart. It is bullish in my opinion B) The wick of the candles are getting bigger – which is similar to prior bullruns – no sign of reversal such as Hammers, Doji or even Tweezer bottom described by some CT yet. I believe if a such candle occurs, it would be a clear bullish signal for the market C) RSI and MACD are showing some nice bullish divergence on the weekly / 10 days charts. The EMEAs are printing some higher highs while the diagram is almost ready to reverse D) The EW count is potentially confirming an X wave, which could let us guess that Y could be near through an ABC Flat correction – Found a confluence of price extension at nearly $0.20/$0.22 E) The most frightening part of this analysis is through the supports and resistance where we can see that XRP has been rejected through a major resistance – XRP is in a descending triangle that is crossing over a huge neckline in purple. This is very bullish. F) Market cycles combined with Fibonacci numbers indicate that we could be in the Advancing Phase: Accumulation. I will update you if my analysis is liked and shared – please leave comments and follow me on Twitter! @TheRealArKaiN
POLONIEX:XRPUSD
by Satonacci
15
XRP next possible move. 0,38 in sight?Dear all, Per my previous idea I anticipated a big dump to sub 0,23 level failing to break 0,285 resistance... It obviously didn't work out this way hence my obligation to re-assess and try figure out next move. The question is did we really start the bull run to new ATH? Well 0,38 level will be the first to watch for and will be my next target. Breaking this resistance will be a positive sign however the resistance will be even stronger at 0,40 area which will be the one to focus on later. Unless XRP break through all resistance like it was nothing (which happend before)... No bullrun confirmation. For now expecting a strong 0,28 area to hold and see ou dear XRP fly to 0,38 area within couple of days. Wish you all good luck and BE PATIENT!
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by ElmoX
Utility drives XRP/BTC. Prove me wrong. TLDR; YOU CAN'TEvery time I hear you mouth breathers say we are waiting on utility I die a little inside knowing how stupid that is to say. Here is have again posted the amount of payments being sent on that date. Funny how the price is ALWAYS higher when the number of payments increases. If speculation primarily moves XRP then why can't you find one point in history payments were at a all time high and price wasn't . Prove me wrong this seems to easy and your all blind apparently. No offence but you can't see whats staring you in the face. There is a reason Ripple NEVER worries about the price. They know as long as 10,000-16,000 payments are made per day the price will hover around support. Most every increase in payments will see a increase in price with one or so exceptions in 3 years of data Xrp price ATH WAS ALSO PAYMENTS ATH 135,141 (1/5/18) The climb to ATH price was also a climb to PAYMENTS ATH . AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE? PLEASE TELL ME IF THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE PAYMENTS ARE MOVING THE PRICE . Are you telling me Payments are not sent until price action moves upwards? In what world would instant payments be instant if they are waiting on price action to be filled? None. You guys have no fucking clue what is about to happen to it's gonna be dick size changing gains. Oh yeah. xrpcharts.ripple.com
by Bannedhammr
2
XRP bottomI have highlighted price area where I see possible bounce zone for XRP before bull run. The question is , will that be the bottom before major rise ? ................. About XRP 100$+ People are giving too much power to market cap. It's just statistical comparison in crypto area ( Useful as comparing coins with how much followers they got on twitter) .It’s not roof. There is a reason why 100 billion where made. With 0.30$ xrp wouldn't be enough for even handful of top world banks. .................
POLONIEX:XRPUSD
by AinisSpainis
Short this S-coin to 20 cents. Absolute pump and dump garbage.It's been very obvious for a long time where this coin is going and that is 0 cents. It has all of the characteristics of a penny stock during the dotcom crash. Great coin with potential utility but xrp really destroyed themselves by resting all of their business revenues on the pumping and dumping of this token. There are things they shouldn't have done in retrospect. They shouldn't have given themselves unabated power over escrow, and their whole business model shouldn't have been made dependent on the value of the token to begin with. Very sad situation unfortunately.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by zmassey
25
I am finally bullish on XRP! This is a perfect long entry. I am no longer bearish on XRP/BTC. 95% of my calls out of about 20 on XRPBTC have be correct so far. I believe that many bullish indicators are playing out, including an XRPUSD / XRPBTC convergence, prolonged uptick in volume, ridiculously prolonged oversell on the RSI, as well as the recent bull run in BTCUSD all indicate that XRP is due for a nice rally. Rally probably won't happen straight away, so expect an initial rally up to 0.00004200 and then a correction back down to 0.00002800. Already made a tonne shorting xrpbtc so hopefully we can make some profits on the upside.
Long
by zmassey
2
Let's just appreciate how bearish this chart looks. All of the gains we've had over the last three months will be completely wiped out in less than one month. This chart looks incredibly bearish. Once these monthly candles form it's extremely difficult to change their course. XRP will be at 30 cents or even lower this July. That last rally we had in May was a final attempt by whales to create enough volume so that they can exit the market. The fact that Joel Katz "de-risked" by selling his bags before this Rally happened should be indication enough that this market is about to entirely capitulate. I feel extremely bad for the mom's and dads that have put their life savings into these s#$%-coins expecting to get some sort of retirement out of it. A wave of Suicides and divorces will ensue, believe me. XRP has been a grand failure, lets face it. Wild expectations and extremely dismal fundamentals. Inb4 "but moneygram". Literally shut up about this, moneygram is a s%#% company that is facing massive financial difficulties. Their stock looks worse than Deutsche banks. Please stop getting the wool pulled over your eyes by twitter influencers and youtubers. It's all hype and conspiracy, that never leads to anything meaningful ever in XRP's history as a cryptocurrency. I've been around for 4 years trading this s-coin and the narratives and riddles have always been the same bs.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDShort
by zmassey
6