XRPUSD Is Grayscale's new Trust launch the dawn of a new era?XRP saw a jump of around +9% on Thursday after Grayscale announced the launch of a new trust that gives accredited investors direct exposure to the cryptocurrency. Unlike an exchange-traded fund, the trust will primarily trade over the counter. Trusts are also more susceptible to trading at a price that does not line up with the underlying value of the portfolio.
Could this pave way for a potential ETF? Possibly, and that would certainly put XRPUSD in the same league as the market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum that are already drawing massive capital inflows following their ETF launch, ushering a new era for cryptocurrency.
But what we can do for the time being, is focus on the short-term technical price action alone and as you can on the 1D time-frame XRP's trend has been bearish since July 13 2023, within a Channel Down pattern.
Currently the price is past the new High, having formed a series of Lower Highs, which have emerged every time after a top. This trend-line didn't break in the past and pushed the price Lower to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level.
As a result, we can't turn bullish short-term as long as the Lower Highs hold. The action remains bearish, targeting 0.4000 (Fib 0.618). The moment however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we will take the short's loss and turn bullish, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
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Xrpusdsignals
XRPUSD Incredibly strong 1D candle. Sign of a bullish break-out?A little over a month ago (June 25, see chart below), we posted a roadmap on XRPUSD looking towards an aggressive break-out and rally above its multi-year Triangle:
Yesterday, the crypto made a massive 1D green candle (end of SEC's lawsuit), against the majority of the market sentiment and yet again it almost touched the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down pattern that started on the July 13 2023 High.
Just a week ago (July 31 2024), we had the last test (and rejection) of that top so a test that soon could be an early warning of a bullish break-out.
If the price breaks and closes the candle above it, we expect a W-shaped recovery that could target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
If rejected at the top again though, we would expect a re-test of the Channel's 0.618 Fib level, with a rough Target at 0.4000.
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XRPUSD Its aggressive move has started.XRPUSD followed relatively closely our structure last time we gave a long-term call (September 13 2023, see chart below), hitting our 0.56750 Target:
We now zoom out on the 1W time-frame where the pattern becomes more clear. XRP is about to close a 1W candle above the 3rd Channel Up in a row. If it does, we expect a test of the upper Resistance Zone, similar to what happened on the March 27 2023 1W candle.
As a result, our final Target is intact at 0.9300. Notice that the 1W MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, the 4th since August 2022, which is always a buy signal. On top of that, XRP is closer than ever to the first 1W Golden Cross since the week of April 21 2021, the most bullish pattern we can get amidst this new Bull Cycle.
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XRPUSD Has it lost all of the SEC steam?Last time we looked at XRPUSD (Ripple) was 3 months ago, giving the most accurate pull-back buy entry we could get (see chart below):
Following the SEC news on July 13, the price broke above $90 for the first time since April 2022 but since then started a decline which in two aggressive parts eventually broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and hit both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (red trend-line), whose range form the current Support Zone.
The 1D RSI Higher Lows potentially indicate that we are forming a bottom sequence similar to January 02 2023 and June 13 2022. In fact as you can see on the chart, the pattern of June - December 2022 is quite similar to that of April - September 2023.
As a result we are bullish and have a medium-term target at 0.56750 for October and long-term target at 0.9300 for January 2024.
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XRPUSD Our target was smashed and the sky seems to be the limit!Huge success for Ripple (XRPUSD) as following the favorable court ruling, the price smashed the 0.65000 target that we set on our analysis last month (see chart below), and broke aggressively above the (now former) Channel Up:
We need to get to the 1W time-frame in order to understand more effectively the magnitude of this move. With the long Support of the 1W MA50 (blue trene-line), the price has formed a new Channel Up that guides it directly to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the multi-year Triangle pattern that XRP has been trading in since the 2018 All Time High. This resembles the Channel Up/ Accumulation phase of 2020 that led to the April 2021 High.
The Triangle however, resembles the pattern of 2013 - 2016, which had a parabolic break-out in 2017 that formed the All Time High. We have attached the break-outs of those two former Channels for projection purposes. The reality is that the XRP has been left so far behind the rest of the crypto market since the 2020 lawsuit, that may very well deliver a proportionally stronger rally as new liquidity gets injected into the market during this Bull Cycle.
As a result we are expecting XRP to reach 2.000 (roughly the previous Cycle High) between December 2023 and January 2024.
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XRPUSD A healthy pull-back before reaching 0.65000.It was on December 30 2022 when we last analyzed XRPUSD and gave you a long-term buy signal at the bottom:
Following that it has been trading within a Channel Up pattern starting on the June 14 2022 market bottom, so effectively for a full year. The current short-term Cup formation was last completed on January 23 and started a 6 week pull-back before making a run for a Higher High.
As a result, we expect a pull-back to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and then rebound towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Our target is 0.65000.
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XRPUSD When will this forgotten high cap rocket?XRPUSD has been making low flights ever since the September 23 rejection on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. More specifically, since the November 08 FTX crash, it has been trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which had so far three rejections. At the moment it is below also the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the two forming last Friday the first 1D Death Cross since December 30 2021.
Since the Bear Cycle started following the April 14 2021 Top and the formation of the (still unbroken) Lower Highs trend-line (Bear Cycle's Resistance), we've had another two Death Cross patterns, one that immediately initiated a strong rally (July 18 2021) and one facilitating a sell-off (December 30 2021). Since the price has been ranged between the 1D MA50 and the mid-June Support Zone (0.31450 - 0.28680) it is more likely that the Cross will empower the break-out that takes place first. A break above the 1D MA50 would target the (dashed) Inner Lower Highs trend-line and then the April 2021 one in extension, while a break below the June Support Zone would target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (as on May 11 2022) if not lower (-0.382 Fib).
On the long-term we can only expect XRP to reverse into a bullish trend if it breaks above the 2021 Lower Highs and ideally the 0.618 Fibonacci level where it failed on September 23, thus making the first Higher High in more than 1.5 year.
XRPUSD Another buy opportunity for medium-term traders.XRPUSD eventually followed the trading plan we posted on September 16 as it broke above its (former) Triangle, hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line target and almost touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level:
The rise however was contained just within the May 2021 Lower Highs trend-line, which is the Bear Cycle's Resistance. Even though the 1D MA200 was supporting, the recent events with FTX sold the price aggressively along with the whole crypto market and pulled it back to the top of the mid-June Support Zone. On the medium-term, this can be another buy opportunity in disguise. There is a (dashed) Internal Lower Highs trend-line to target and then we can either wait for a new pull-back to buy confidently when the 2021 Lower Highs trend-line or better yet the 0.618 Fib break. On the other had, we can sell if the price breaks below the 0.28680 Support and target the -0.236 Fib extension.
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XRPUSD is set to drop!!XRPUSD 4h has formed a strong down-trending market structure. After strong rejection from the neckline of monthly head & shoulder, it has broken down on the lower timeframe. Currently, the price on the 4h timeframe failed to create a higher high, instead has broken down. As the long-term trend is down, it is a high probability for the price to continue to drop.
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XRPUSD Triangle about to break. How to trade the pattern.Ripple (XRPUSD) got rejected this Tuesday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in the aftermath of the worse than expected CPI report. That rejection was performed on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle pattern that the price has been trading in since the July 13 Low.
Naturally, as long as the price remains within the pattern, the trend remains neutral short-term, which is a solid scalping opportunity. A break below it, targets the 0.28680 Low of June 18, which is the current Support and further break can result into a new collapse on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (0.21850).
On the other hand, if the Triangle breaks to the upside, it will be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term. A new break there should chase after the Lower Highs zone from the April 2021 High.
The 1D RSI has been on Higher Lows since May 12, which slightly favors the bullish case but there is a clear Resistance as well to be mindful of.
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XRPUSD Failed twice on the 1D MA50. Action plan.XRPUSD made its last Low on June 18 and since then attempted a rebound. So far this has been rejected twice on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), below which XRP has been trading since April 15. Even in the event of a break-out, there is still the March 28 Lower Highs trend-line to consider, breaking of which should be the strong medium-term buy signal towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. After all the drop since March seems quite similar to the one in May 2021.
The 1W RSI may be oversold but a break below the 0.28680 low would be an automatic sell signal towards the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at around 0.21850.
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XRPUSD Critical crossroads! Which scenario will prevail?XRPUSD got rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second time in two months. Basically, it has been trading below the 1W MA50 for the whole year. At the same time it has been trading under the bearish pressure of the Lower Highs trend-line since the April 2021 High.
This is not unfamiliar territory for XRP as every single Cycle it traded, has formed Lower Highs. Based on the past two Cycles, there are two scenarios that arise:
a) If the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and mainly the Higher Lows zone hold, then as in 2016, a Channel (Green) should lead the price above the 1W MA50 again and ultimately to a new rally.
b) If the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and mainly the Higher Lows zone break, then as in 2019, the price should make one final Lower Low and form the market bottom there.
Based on the 1W RSI sequence, it appears that as the Lower Highs broke (dashed line on the RSI area), it looks more like the bottom formations of both late 2016/early 2017 and early 2020.
As for the expected target? In our view it will be around the 2.5 historic Fibonacci extension at $6.70.
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XRPUSD mini-cycle about to break upwards. New ATH in 2022?XRPUSD is on a very strong green 1W candle, the strongest since August 09 2021, posting so far a sizeable recovery in the past 2 weeks. As a result, the price is currently testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the technical Resistance during corrections.
Interestingly enough, the correction since the April 12 2021 weekly high, shares the same characteristics (RSI and price action) with the Bear Cycles of 2018/19 and 2014/15. We can therefore claim that the current correction is a mini Bear Cycle. A break above its Lower Highs trend-line, should be enough to restore the bullish trend on the long-term. In the previous 2 Bear Cycles, XRP posted a 1 year rally after the Lower Highs trend-line broke. Do you think we'll see a new All Time High if it breaks again? The 2.5 Fibonacci extension around $6.70 is a potential candidate.
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XRPUSD inside a Triangle. How long before it breaks?This is just an update to my July 01 post on XRPUSD where as it hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), I called for the bottom of the May correction phase:
As you see the price rebounded strongly after that MA50 touch but lately has turned sideways struggling to get past 1.45. In my opinion this is not alarming as it is perfectly aligned with its long-term cyclical behavior. Now of course theoretically Cycles are on a lengthening behavioral model (much like Bitcoin) as adoption is getting wider, but during XRP's 2017 Mania Phase, we had a consolidation pattern in the form of Triangle that dominated the price action and turned it sideways for 6 months before the hyper aggressive rally of December that peaked the Cycle.
Right now XRP seems to be struggling inside a similar Triangle. Now, since the 1W MA50 held, the question on most people's minds should be "how long before it breaks?". Like I said the degree of error on this is above average due to Lengthening Cycles Theory and of course the fundamentals behind the lawsuit fundamentals, but technically that should be around +2 months if we are in a symmetrical price action with the 2017 mania fractal. The CCI is also identical to the 2017 bounce on -70.00 and it certainly shows XRP's huge potential. And that should be at least $7.00 based on the Fibonacci extension model shown on this chart.
What's your target for XRP?
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XRP Entries + Exits for FREEHow To Play The Chart Entries/Exits:
Buy at green support entry, if it breaks by -35 pips (count it out) then enter a sell and ride to TP1, 2 and 3. Trail stop at each TP which means place your stop loss in profit but with enough room to be able to continue the sell if it continues. Same thing at resistance, sell but if broken by 35 pips then enter the buy and ride to TP1. Each TP is a support or resistance zone , so you could then even take a sell after TP1 for the buys have been hit and if it breaks out then just repeat.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
XRPUSD Is it about to resume its Mania Phase?Last week the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held and that was enough to give XRP a respectable push to the upside. Whether that can be sustainable or not, it remains to be seen, but last time the 1W MA50 has been holding for that long was during XRPUSD's last Bull Cycle and more specifically in its 2017 Mania Phase.
As you see the similarities are uncanny. Both Bear Cycles have ended on a -16o Lower Highs angle and once the Mania Phase started, the 1W MA50 has been supporting. The mid-phase pull-back on both was around -70%. Right now the CCI is on the same level (-70.00) as it was in the mid 2017 low. The question is are we in a new 1 year Mania Phase and if so is the bounce on the 1W MA50 enough to make Ripple resume it?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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XRPUSD has filled the Channel's low. Time to buy?As you see XRP has been trading within a Channel Up since late 2020 and has so far made two perfect Higher Highs and Higher Lows, the latest of which was priced last week.
At the moment the big hurdle is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is being tested today but what confirmed the break-out during the last wave to a new Higher High was breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Do you think based on this that we have a legitimate Higher Low on the Channel Up and a new Higher High will follow towards the end of Q3?
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