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XRT

XRT: Ringing the Register on Retail StocksSmall caps have surged to fresh highs dating back to the first quarter of 2022. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has suddenly become a darling among sellside strategists and even buyside macro portfolio managers. Recall it was just two months ago when the group traded around 12 times next year’s earnings estimates. Jump ahead to today, and a 25% rally since October 27 leaves ‘the smalls’ closer to 15 times forward EPS forecasts. Is that a bargain? Maybe not quite as much. Let’s focus on one key piece of the small-cap story. Retailers. Pull up a chart of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), and you will see that the pattern since late 2020 appears remarkably similar to IWM's technical profile. The equal-weight basket of consumer equities peaked above $104 in Q4 2021 before plunging to support about 50% lower. Indeed, the mid- FWB:50S has proven to be support several times in the past 15 months. While XRT holds many large-cap names, its equal-weight construction methodology means it will act like a small or mid-cap ETF. On the chart, I see clear resistance near the $75 mark. A breakout above that would portend a potential measured move price objective to the low to mid-$90s – just under its all-time high. For now, I am cautious on the fund since it has yet to break through the $75 line in the sand. I noticed, though, that in the fund's 18-year history, January has actually been a positive month, averaging a 2.2% total return with more tempered gains in February. March and April are the two best back-to-back months on the calendar. Price comes first, however. So, I would like to see XRT jump above the $75 level. For now, ringing the register on retail stocks appears as the prudent play heading into 2024.
AMEX:XRTShort
by mikezaccardi
GameStop: Remains In A Position to Break Bullishly From Its ZoneGME has been getting sold off with the macro for quite some time and it continues to push deeper and deeper into dangerous territory. At this point in time, it has pushed slightly below the 0.382/0.886 Confluence Zone and is now at the 200 SMA, but with that, we can see that the Local Bullish Shark can extend into a 1.618 Extension, so the Breakout watch is far from over on GME though we are getting towards levels where one may leave it alone. I would say that if GME breaks below $11.50, there would be a very distinct chance of it dumping down to $9.5, but if it instead holds above $11.5 and pushes back above $14.00, then we could instead see GME make a rapid move up to $18.00, which would be just high enough to test the supply line of our Channel/Falling Wedge. From there we could possibly break out of it and go for the measured move, but for now, I'd say one would probably want to have a short-term position to take profits on at $18.00 and a separate longer-term position to hold strong until GME gets the big measured move breakout to $74 - $134
NYSE:GMELong
by RizeSenpai
4
Academy Sports (ASO) I bought some of this near the IPO back around $15 a share. I cashed out around $28 a share. I wished I had held, it is now near $63 a share. Small cap sports retailer out of Katy, TX with superb financials and growth plans. 0.47 PEG, ROE of 41.71%. Solidly increasing free cash flow and margins. Solid and steady accumulation. $67.13 is 1.618 extension on monthly. $67.83 on weekly 2.142 extended on daily right now, so I am hoping for a pullback to the $57.74 on daily 23% extension, which is in the range of the thin vol profile on weekly down to volume expansion at $58.41 $51.66 mo. & weekly 23% fib retrace; thin vol profile on weekly down to $58.01 $51.51 prior swing high on weekly $58.41 23% fib on daily; thin volume profile from $61.89 down to $58.41 fib I don't chase, I always wait for a pullback to buy, so I am setting an entry target of $58.56 in hopes of a pullback to higher volume profile off that 2.142 extension.
NASDAQ:ASOLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
XRT Bearish inclined naked calls 16 Sep expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought I’ve been looking at the retail sector especially since the consumer willingness to spend has been shifting to services/ experiences and entertainment. Household cleaning, groceries, pets, alcohol, recreational vehicles all have seen drops in spend from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022 Walmart has also started laying off people and have also seen a shift in consumer purchase behaviours due to inflation and pandemic lifestyle changes. I believe retails companies have already started becoming defensive Risk Mitigation There is a key S&R line at 73.02 and the final one at 75.72. Once we see break throughs on these we will need to close Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side With the market becoming bullish since Mid May - June (NASDAQ & S&P). I think taking a bullish position is also possible in the short term. However besides market movement and a dropping oil price, I don’t see how the original bear situation has changed. Look For New Information What am I rejecting the current bull run, which is does make me uncomfortable Next week we have earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Bath & Body works. If I had remembered this I would not have entered How Do I Feel Now Uncomfortable Trade Specs Sold 110 Calls @ 0.42 Strike 80 % to Strike 11.94% BP Used: 83K Max Gain: 4620
AMEX:XRTShort
by Ronin_trader