BIST100 DEVAM EDEN SENARYOM8193 değerine doğru yükselen bir hareket göreceğimizi bekliyorum. 8193 değerini sert kıramaz isek 7744 e dorğu sert düşüşler beklenir. Bu düşüş gerçekleşir ise endeksin döneceği ve zirvelerini yenileyeceği zaman 7744 den sonra olur.
Eğer 8193 görür ve kırar ise beklenti 8700 lerdir. Ve 8700 lerde yeniden değerlendirme yapmak gerekir.
Özel ekibimize dahil olmak isterseniz yoruma özel grup için bilgi almak istiyorum yazmanız yeterlidir.
NOT : YATIRIM TAVSİYESİ İÇERMEZ. HERKES KENDİ HÜR İRADESİ İLE KENDİ ŞAHSİ HESABINDAN İSTEDİĞİ HİSSEYİ ALIP SATMADA ÖZGÜRDÜR. KİMSE KİMSEYE YÖN VEREMEZ %100 GARANTİ KAZANÇ SAĞLAYACAK HİSSE VEREMEZ.
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XU100
BIST100 Correction ScenarioThe correction we were waiting for came and BIST100 dropped to 7800 liras. With the subsequent rise, the index tested the moving average again, but as we expected, it was rejected and fell below the 8000 level again. Here, we think that the index will decline to 7500 lira levels, especially if it cannot hold on to the 7900 lira support. We do not think that the rise will start again unless it stays above the 8000 lira level, which is the WMA 20 level in the 4-hour time period.
Fibonacci on BISTI have detected that BIST price has been moving according to the fibonacci retracement for several months. Let me explain the whole strategy of the fibonacci retracement and how the price adapts, in order.
BIST index is in a continuous downtrend from 9 March to 3 April. At the end of this downtrend (4712), I drew the Fibonacci retracement, which I received confirmation of return, and I saw that the 0.618 level was 5185 TL. Therefore, a purchase I will make at the bottom and then a sale at 0.618 brought me a profit of 10%.
When the price hit the 0.618 level, I got confirmation of a reversal and removed the old fibonacci and drew a fibonacci from the low on April 3 to the high on April 13. (I wouldn't have done this if I hadn't received the return confirmation.) The 1.618 level (4393) of the fibonacci I just drew became my new target. A short I opened at 5187 brought me a profit of even over 15% when I reached 1.618.
Then I saw a double bottom formation at this level and it was a confirmation of a return for me. Therefore, I drew a fibonacci from the high price on April 13 to the low price on May 5. The 0.618 level (4860) of this fibonacci is also the target for me. When I reach the target, I think I will make a profit of around 10%.
As I see the possibility of a return from the 4860 level, I drew a (not certain) fibonacci price of 0.618 from the bottom price on May 5th. This gives me the next bottom price of 4119 TL, ie 1.618 fibonacci level.
The Fibonacci strategy is generally like this. As you can see, the strategy should be used in conjunction with reversal or breakout confirmations. These confirmations can be taken with candles or formations.
SPX | The US is FailingEurope and especially Germany (the biggest power in Europe) have suffered this year due to the energy crisis.
There is more background though... The US has performed well until now. This period of US dominance is failing.
The chart above is respecting a long-term trend. Now, price is at the bottom with stochastics primed for continuation of the uptrend for Germany.
To effectively compare Europe and USA we need to "fix" the indices of each country. Currency strength should get out of the picture for us to better analyze equity performance between countries.
So, the DEU40 Index of Germany is multiplied by EURUSD, to get it denominated in Euro. This should always be done when comparing items of different origin (different currency).
As an example, for reference I will also analyze Turkey.
It is as if Turkey is performing incredibly... The General Index XU100 has gone exponential. If we plug in the currency, the picture changes.
There are more evidence against the US...
Turkey is set to overperform the US in the years to come...
Many countries follow Turkey's example:
Honestly, the most dramatic of them all is China. A substantial diversion from it's trend, with a massive double bottom shaping. Will price seek the trend?
Is it a new beginning for China, or the beginning of the end?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
BIST100 (XU100) Major and Minor ChannelsBIST100 Major and minor channels.
Log-graph.
- Orange channel is there since 1998.
- Purple channel is where we are surfing since Oct 2021. As long as we are above 5075, we are at the upper half of this channel, which is bullish.
- April 21 or 24 is an important date, where we have overlapping channels, one is descending and the other is ascending. If we are above 5155 on Apr 24, i will be short term extremely bullish until the elections.
BIST100 XU100 ForecastBased on the information provided, the price has been range-bound for the last 80 days. Additionally, the last range lasted for 120 days before breaking out. This suggests that the current range may continue for some time, and traders should exercise caution when considering trading opportunities.
The technical analysis includes two scenarios: a bullish scenario represented by the blue line and a bearish scenario represented by the red line. Traders should wait for clear reactions from the zones indicated in these scenarios before initiating any trades.
In the bullish scenario, the price would need to break above the upper range boundary and hold above it for an extended period before traders can confidently enter long positions. This could indicate that buyers have gained control of the market, and the price may continue to rise.
On the other hand, in the bearish scenario, the price would need to break below the lower range boundary and hold below it for an extended period before traders can initiate short positions. This could indicate that sellers have gained control of the market, and the price may continue to decline.
Overall, traders should exercise caution when trading in a range-bound market and wait for clear indications of a breakout before initiating any positions. It is essential to monitor the price action closely and adjust trading strategies accordingly to stay ahead of the market.
XU100 depends on the reveal of candidate for elections of 14 MayBIST:XU100 wants to float up she needs good news only on the alternate candidate for presidency of Turkey for 14 May 2023 elections. 22 Feburary seems the critical date for decision of the trend. Strong candidate will support a trend up.
BİST100 (XU100) Double Top + Another Trendline Break Forming?The BIST100 index recently experienced a trendline break, failing to reach the previous trendline and forming a lower angle trendline. This new trendline is showing signs of weakness, as evidenced by the formation of a double top pattern. Given these indicators, it is likely that the BIST100 will experience another trendline break, potentially leading to a retest of the 5000 level. This analysis should be considered as one of multiple factors in making investment decisions, and further research is recommended.
15M Timeframe:
4H TF:
BIST100 (XU100) Critical Levels to watch (BİST100, bist)Price action has recently moved up from the lower bound of the chart, however, given the current apprehensive sentiment among retail investors and the impending elections, it is unlikely that we will reach the upper bound of the chart in the near future.
15m chart:
BIST 100 at a major weekly support has to close above and bounceA bounce from the middle thich green line like the last few times it has done would signal a major continuation of the rally like September, if we are really going to get levels like 8000-10000 we really shouldn't break this structure and trend and i believe we won't.
XU100 - Short Term Bear Channel FormedAttention
200MA in the hourly chart, which is around 5396, is now a resistance (previously it was a support!)
Red Channel
Now focus on the red channel: On Jan 5 and Jan 6, its highs and lows are formed respectively. And today, on Jan 9, we saw that the top of the channel is verified at the start of the day. Looks like we will be in this bear channel for a couple of days, until the appetite is back. (remember, it's an intensely inflationary country and the stock market's direction is up unless something drastic happens xD).
The best scenario: The index hits the previous high at 5093 and bounces. The obvious price action move. However I don't expect this to go off, since the retail investors are really panicky and they will act in a bipolar manner.
Good scenario: The index hits 4992 (where the daily 50MA will be) and bounces from there.
Bad Scenario: The index hits 4772 (where the 4hour 200MA will be) and bounces from there. It will also be very close to the support at 4770 which we found from the price action. This looks to me like the most probable scenario.
Basically, I expect the daily RSI to go as low as 30-35s and get up from there.
BIST XU100 Demand ZoneIt was a significant drop in price today, however, there is a demand zone that may provide some support. While it is uncertain if this level will hold, it is possible that we may see a small rally at this point. It is important to closely monitor the price action and volume at this demand zone to gauge the strength of the support.