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USD/JPY eyes inflation, BoJ minutesThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.85, down 0.61%. Later today, the US releases third-estimate GDP for the third quarter, which is expected to confirm that the economy grew at an impressive rate of 5.2% q/q. Japan's Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is considered the preferred inflation gauge for the Bank of Japan. The November report, which will be released on Friday, is expected to fall to 2.5% y/y, compared to 2.9% in October. Core CPI has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for 19 straight months, putting pressure on the central bank to tighten policy. The BoJ has insisted that high inflation is a result of cost-push pressures and that higher wage growth is needed to ensure that inflation is sustainable. Still, a shift in policy from the BoJ is likely a question of when rather than if, with senior BoJ officials hinting that the central bank is considering tightening its ultra-loose policy. Japan's government expects inflation to remain well above the target and has revised upwards its inflation forecast to 2.5% for the fiscal year starting in April. The previous forecast stood at 1.9%. The government said that the upward revision was due to a weaker yen, higher oil prices and the expected reduction in subsidies for utility costs. The Bank of Japan will release on Friday the minutes from the meeting on October 31. At the meeting, the BoJ maintained policy but removed the 1% upper ceiling on its yield control curve (YCC) program, saying 1% would remain a reference level. The tweak was enough to shake up the currency markets, as the yen plunged 1.78% against the US dollar on October 31, its sharpest daily gain since February. Investors will be looking through the minutes for further details about the decision to tweak YCC and any hints about future rate policy. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.18 and is testing support at 142.80. Below, there is support at 142.34 There is resistance at 143.64 and 144.02
by OANDA
The Bank of Japan can’t let goThis week financial markets were dominated by central banks policy decisions. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BOE) kept rates on hold, the policy board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to further increase the flexibility in its yield curve control policy. The BOJ previously set a strict cap of 1.0% for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield. But it has now decided that 1% should be a “reference” (not a strict cap), which effectively allows the yield to rise above 1% when the BOJ thinks it is appropriate. The upper bound of 1% appears to be a level they can’t let go of. By doing so, the BOJ is choosing an exit path that gives them the maximum flexibility but minimum volatility around the Yen. We view this as a dovish move as consensus expectations were for the BOJ to move the cap to 1.25% rather than 1%. Japan’s remains on a narrow path One of the reasons holding back the BOJ from normalisation of policy rates, is they still believe Japan’s recovery since the re-opening in October 2022 remains on a narrow path as it relies heavily on tourism, while the broader services sectors have yet to pick up significantly and manufacturing activity has been hampered by soft exports. Japan’s flash PMI readings for October showed us a bifurcated economy where the services sector is stronger than the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.6, which is in contraction territory. Services PMI was 51.1, which is down from last month’s reading of 53.8 but is still in expansion territory, no doubt helped by fiscal stimulus and the accommodative monetary policy environment. BOJ on the lookout for an intensified virtuous cycle between wages and prices BOJ governor Ueda indicated that the BoJ will be monitoring the upcoming spring union-employer wage negotiations. A strong outcome could catalyse the earlier attainment of sustained inflation in Japan, but overall, Japan’s recovery isn’t strong enough yet for employers, especially small enterprises, to meaningful support wage hikes in the broad economy. While headline inflation bolted north of 4% in January 2023, it appears to have peaked and has begun receding. While core inflation remains around the 4% mark. The Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed to 2% annually in September suggesting a stabilization or even drop in CPI ahead. The BOJ revised its outlook for core inflation (all items less fresh food and energy) to 3.8% in FY23, 1.9% for FY24 and 1.9% for FY25. The BoJ stated that the inflation uptick “needs to be accompanied by an intensified virtuous cycle between wages and prices”. The Yen is unlikely to appreciate under BOJ’s policy change owing to the large gap in interest rates between the US and Japan. The direction of the Yen matters for Japanese equities owing to Japan high export tilt. The exporters stand to benefit amidst a weaker Yen. Fire power abounds for Japanese equities Japanese equities had a strong first half in 2023, attaining 33-year highs. Yet valuations at 15.7x price to earnings ratio (P/E), still trade at a 30% discount to its 15-year average providing room to catch up. More importantly, earnings revision estimates in Japan are currently the highest among the major economies. Earnings yield at 4.07% for the Nikkei 225 Index has been trending above bond yields 0.947% for 10 Year JGBs , keeping the well-known TINA (There is no Alternative) trade alive in favour of Japanese equities. Tailwind from corporate governance reforms Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) call for listed companies to focus on achieving sustainable growth and enhancing corporate value is beginning to bear fruit. The call was aimed at companies with a price to book (P/B) ratio below one. Those companies were asked to develop a plan for improvement, disclose and then implement and track its progress. The progress has been encouraging with 31% of companies on the prime market making a disclosure of their plan . Large companies with a price to book ratio below one have been more proactive with disclosure. Historically cash-heavy Japanese companies face increasing pressure to improve their numbers, possibly by funnelling historically high excess cash reserves into increased buybacks or dividends. Conclusion Inflation has been missing in Japan for more than a decade. So now that it has arrived aided by the post pandemic pick up of the Japanese economy, policy makers are not in a rush to obliterate it. With wage growth lagging behind inflation, the Bank of Japan does not appear ready to wean itself from Yield Curve Control until a more intensified virtuous cycle is observed between wages and prices. The BOJ’s policy decision this week is unlikely to allow the appreciation of the Yen, which should continue to provide a competitive advantage to Japanese exporters. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by aneekaguptaWTE
USD/JPY edges lower, Tokyo Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen has steadied after three straight days of losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.19%. Tokyo Core CPI climbed 2.7% y/y in October, above 2.5% in September which was also the consensus estimate. The index, which excludes fresh food is a key indicator of inflation trends in Japan and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo's headline CPI also rose in October, from 2.8% to 3.3%. The Bank of Japan will find it hard to ignore these hotter-than-expected inflation readings. The timing of these releases is awkward for the BoJ, which holds its policy meeting on Oct. 30-31. Underlying inflation is proving to be stickier than expected and BoJ policy makers may have to revise upwards their inflation outlooks for 2023 and 2024. High inflation is a risk to Japan's recovery, putting pressure on the BoJ to make some kind of move at the meeting. The central bank will have a busy agenda at next week's meeting. Aside from stubbornly high inflation, the BoJ will have to decide whether to tweak its yield curve control (YCC) program and what to do about the falling yen. The Japanese currency breached the symbolic 150 line this week for the first time since October 3rd, raising speculation that the BoJ could shift its policy or even intervene in the currency markets. Tokyo has responded to the yen breaching 150 with the usual verbal intervention, warning investors not to sell the yen. The BoJ won't be providing any advance warning about a currency intervention, so traders should remain on alert. For those doubting US exceptionalism, the superb US GDP of 4.9% in the third quarter was proof in the pudding of a robust US economy. This was the fastest growth rate since Q4 of 2021, boosted by strong consumer spending in the third quarter. The sharp rise in growth hasn't changed market expectations with regard to rates, which have priced in pauses at the November and December meetings. USD/JPY is testing support at 1.5017. Below, there is support at 149.67 There is resistance at 1.5049 and 1.5099
by OANDA
Will US CPI shake up sleepy yen?USD/JPY continues to have a quiet week and is almost unchanged, trading at 135.20. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions, which will be released later today. The summaries rarely move the dial on the yen, but this summary could be different, as it covers the April meeting which was the first chaired by Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BoJ did not change its policy settings at the meeting, but there are growing expectations that Ueda will take steps to normalize policy, which would boost the yen. At the meeting, the BoJ removed guidance on rate levels which committed to maintain rates at "current or lower levels" and announced it would review its monetary policy. Ueda said on Tuesday that there were positive signs in inflation and inflation expectations, and said the BoJ would end its yield curve control (YCC) policy once it was clear that inflation would "sustainably and stably meet our 2% target". The yen did not react to these comments, but it appears that Ueda is slowly but surely making plans to shift policy and gradually wind up former Governor Kuroda's massive stimulus program, which has been the hallmark of BoJ policy for years. The US release the April inflation report later today, and indications are that CPI remains sticky, which isn't great news for the Fed. Headline inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, while the core rate is projected to tick lower to 5.5%, down from 5.6% in March. The Fed has signalled that it will pause rates next month, and this has been priced in by the markets at 78%, although there is a 21% of a rate hike, according to the CME Group. A hotter-than-expected inflation report would likely raise the probability of a rate hike and provide a boost to the US dollar. USD/JPY tested resistance at 135.37 earlier in the day. Above, the next resistance line is 137.24 There is support at 134.50 and 132.97
by OANDA
USD/JPY extends rally ahead of BOJ Core CPIThis week's data calendar out of Japan will be dominated by inflation releases and the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting at the end of the week. Traders will be keeping a close eye on BoJ Core CPI, which will be released on Tuesday. The index, which is the BoJ's preferred inflation gauge, fell from 3.1% to 2.7% in February. Another drop would support the central bank's view that inflation is falling back towards the 2% target. Inflation has been running above 3% and this has raised speculation that the BoJ will respond by tightening policy, which would likely send the yen sharply higher. The BoJ has insisted that it will not tighten until it is convinced that higher inflation is sustainable and not a result of more expensive goods and raw materials. The uncertain outlook for global growth and a weak domestic economy means that the BoJ is in no rush to shift policy. New Governor Ueda has been consistent in his message that he will maintain an ultra-loose policy, but nonetheless, speculation continues that the BoJ will tweak or even abandon its yield curve control, which has been criticised for distorting bond market pricing. I suspect that speculators hoping for a shift in policy that will send the yen higher will be disappointed after this week's meeting, as Ueda is unlikely to rock the boat at his first meeting. The BoJ will provide updated quarterly growth and inflation forecasts, which could provide a hint as to future monetary policy. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.3427. Next, there is resistance at 1.3499 133.41 and 1.3269 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY dips as Tokyo Core CPI slowsThe Japanese yen has gained ground on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.17, down 0.44%. There was some positive news on the inflation front, as Tokyo Core CPI for February slowed for the first time since January 2022. The indicator was expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.5%, but instead reversed directions and fell to 3.3%. The sharp drop was not a complete surprise, as it was driven by government subsidies, including a 20% reduction in household electricity bills, which took effect in February. Without the subsidies, it's likely that the Tokyo inflation figure would have come in around 4.5%. It's unclear how long the government will continue these subsidies, which means that the inflation picture remains uncertain. The Bank of Japan has insisted that rising inflation is transient and is a result of external factors such as high commodity prices rather than domestic inflationary pressures. The central bank has insisted on maintaining its massive stimulus programme even though inflation has been on the upswing and is more than double the BoJ's target of 2%. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan, as the changing of the guard looms ever closer. BoJ Governor-elect Kazuo Ueda will take over the helm from Haruhiko Kuroda in early April. Ueda has been careful not to make any waves at his confirmation hearings, saying that the central bank's current policy is appropriate. Still, the markets aren't convinced that Ueda will maintain Kuroda's ultra-loose policy, especially with rising inflation. The BoJ's yield curve control (YCC) policy has damaged the bond markets and there is speculation that Kuroda could make a grand exit at his final meeting on March 10 and tweak YCC in order to relieve pressure on Ueda. There is resistance at 137.37 and 138.24 135.65 and 134.78 are providing support
by OANDA
end of the carry trade The chart below shows when we started to switch sides in yen at 149.3x on October 18th. Three days later, we had FED 'slip of the tongue' admitting being passed the mid-point in rate cycle, and finally the dollar began to cool. BOJ have no option but to move rates higher. The clock is ticking for a move under $125, unlocking $110 and $100 with the full swing. For those following the flows over the past few years this has been a flawless carry trade, presented in a 5-3-5 corrective sequence (since multiple decades), and finally beginning to unwind. In terms of sequencing, Kuroda is out in April, leaving behind inflation on the doorstep and probably the end of YCC. Yen longs continue to make a lot of sense over 2023, near term watch out for some profit taking at $125. Keep short, add on better levels, $132 will cap the highs.
Short
by ridethepig
10
USD/JPY ends nasty slideUSD/JPY is in positive territory on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 128.50, up 0.52%. The yen had an excellent week, climbing over 3% and trading at levels not seen since May 2022. The Bank of Japan holds a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in what could be one of the highlights of the week. BOJ meetings were traditionally sleepy affairs that usually maintained the Bank's policy settings. That has changed and the December meeting roiled the markets after the BoJ unexpectedly widened the band around 10-year JBs to 0.50%, up from 0.25%. The dramatic move has raised speculation that the BOJ could be planning additional policy changes at the upcoming meeting. The 0.25% cap on 10-year yields was breached on Friday and again today. The central bank has responded by buying over 2 trillion yen worth of JGBs but there is talk that the Bank could further widen the band to 0.75% or even abandon its yield curve control (YCC) policy completely. The yen has gained 14% against the US dollar since November, adding pressure on the BoJ to tighten its ultra-loose policy. If the BOJ does scrap the YCC, it would likely be viewed by the market as similar to a rate hike, which would push the yen higher. The BOJ will also release an updated inflation forecast, which is expected to be revised upwards. Market participants should be prepared for volatility from the yen after the BOJ announcements on Wednesday. In the US, consumer confidence gained strength in December. UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 64.6, beating the forecast of 60.5 and above the November reading of 59.7. Inflation expectations for 2023 decreased to 4.0%, down from 4.4%, although long-term expectations inched higher. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 128.40. Above, there is resistance at 129.40 127.07 and 125.92 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY rockets after BoJ shockerThe Japanese yen has sent the dollar tumbling on Tuesday. USD/JPY has fallen 3.26% and is trading at 132.44 in Europe. In the Asian session, USD/JPY fell as low as 131.99 but has recovered slightly. At the end of its policy meeting, the Bank of Japan stunned the markets with a change to its yield curve control (YCC). The BoJ announced it would widen the band around the 10-year bond yield to 50 basis points, up from 25 bp. The move allows long-term interest rates to rise higher and the reaction was deafening, as the yen soared and climbed to its highest level since August 11th. The move was completely unexpected, as the BoJ meeting was expected to be a sleeper with no policy changes. It was just yesterday that I wrote in these pages that the BoJ was not expected to change policy until the changing of the guard in April 2023, when Governor Kuroda steps down. The BoJ move is certainly dramatic but needs to be kept in proportion. The BoJ is maintaining its YCC targets and said it would sharply increase bond purchases. This could be a signal that the Bank is tweaking its current ultra-loose policy and is not planning to withdraw stimulus. The BOJ has staunchly defended its yield cap with massive bond purchases, and this has distorted the yield curve and fueled a sharp drop in the yen, which has contributed to higher costs for imports of raw materials. BoJ policy makers may have become uncomfortable with these side effects and felt that the time was right to take a small step towards normalisation. This 'baby step' packed a massive punch as seen in the yen's reaction, and the markets will be looking for hints at further moves from Governor Kuroda as his term winds down. USD/JPY has broken below several support levels. The next support level is 131.13
by OANDA
1
Yen falls back down after BoJ balksThe Japanese yen continues to post strong swings this week and is up sharply on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 134.67 in Europe, up 1.86% on the day. It's been a busy week, with the markets still digesting some dramatic moves by central banks. The Fed and SNB delivered massive salvos in their fight against inflation, and the BoE continues to tighten, albeit at a more modest pace. The week wrapped up with the Bank of Japan policy decision earlier in the day. These meetings are usually on the dull side, with the central bank merely reaffirming its ultra-loose policy, with the occasional tweak. Today's meeting was closely watched, however, as the BOJ's yield curve stance has been under pressure and there was speculation that the BoJ might retreat and release the cap of 0.25% on 10-year JGBs. In the end, the BoJ did not blink or budge, maintaining its policy for yield curve control and QE. The BOJ reaffirmed it will continue its policy of rock-bottom rates, even though other major central banks are tightening policy, as we saw this week with the Fed, BOE and SNB. Governor Kuroda has insisted that monetary easing remain in place, given Japan's slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. With inflation barely at 2%, the central bank's target, Kuroda can afford to continue his loose policy and tenaciously defend the BoJ's yield curve. The BoJ didn't adjust policy today but it was noteworthy that the policy statement added the exchange rate to its list of risks, something we haven't seen in previous statements. The yen hit a 24-year low at 135.60 earlier this week and could fall even further. The Bank is sending a message that it is monitoring the exchange rate, but I question whether this will deter the markets from continuing to test the yen - previous jawboning from the BoJ and Ministry of Finance didn't succeed in stemming the yen's slide, and we could well be on our way to a 140 yen if the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 133.14. Above, there is resistance at 1.3585 There is support at 131.72
by OANDA
USD/JPY - Running into Major ResistanceThe rally in USD/JPY has massively accelerated in recent weeks as markets and the Fed have become increasingly hawkish on US interest rates. This has happened at a time when many central banks are heading in that direction, even the ECB which at one point looked years away from interest rates above 0%. While they haven't yet conceded on the kind of rate hikes that the markets are pricing in, they're certainly heading in that direction. The BoJ is the outlier here. Inflation is higher but core remains stubbornly low, meaning the pressure on the central bank to raise rates is basically non-existent. But rather than allow policymakers to sit back and bask in their good fortune, being the outlier has presented other challenges, most notably around the central bank's yield curve control (YCC) policy. When central banks around the world have rock bottom interest rates, maintaining YCC is quite straightforward. Rates may fluctuate a little but broadly speaking, keeping them within certain limits poses no major threats. When yields around the world are rising and countries are experiencing high inflation, suddenly JGBs start seeing their yields rise in tandem and the BoJ is forced to defend those caps which can pose some problems, as we're seeing. At a time when the US is raising rates aggressively, the BoJ is being forced to buy unlimited JGBs in order to keep a cap on yields which is sending the USD/JPY pair soaring. In some ways, this is good for Japan and its exporters. In other ways, it's not so good as they also import a lot, including energy which is already very expensive right now. But the general rule of thumb for policymakers is there is no defined good or bad level for currency, rather a belief that the speed of those moves matters much more. Rapid appreciation or depreciation (as we're now seeing) can be problematic. So the recent moves have prompted speculation that something needs to happen. That could be FX interventions from the Ministry of Finance or a shift in the YCC policy from the BoJ, perhaps widening the band or lifting the level it wishes to hold the yield around. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has quickly risen to a level where it has previously backtracked from, both in 2007 and 2015. It's this knowledge that may have contributed to the profit-taking we saw yesterday and today. A move above here would be a potentially massive step and may make the MoF and BoJ nervous. A move below the ascending trend line could signal a deeper corrective move, although that could quickly attract interest given the scale of the move that preceded it. Signs of either of the previously mentioned measures could see that wane but until then, things could get uncomfortable for policymakers as the divergence between Japan and most other countries continues to widen.
by OANDA