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Cyclical activity: getting into the statsStatistics (all ranges in percentages) EURUSD from Jan 2001 to Dec 2020 AUDJPY Apr 2003 to Mar 2021 USDCAD from Jan 2001 to Dec 2020 EURGBP from Jan 2001 to Dec 2020 Summary January, May, September, October have the largest OC ranges; February, June, July, August, have the smallest ones; January, March, October, November have the largest HL-OC; April, May, September, December have the smallest ones; June has the worst OC/(HL-OC) of them all; April, May, September have the best ratios; March, June, August, November the worst ones. What I might deduce is April typically has a small but solid trend that maintains its gains, May continues it (strongest of all months), then in June it ends and corrects. February I can't draw any preliminary conclusions, March trends average but fails hard eventually, if Feb starts a trend March will end up, probably in gross sideways chopiness. September starts a trend and goes from 0 to 100 the fastest, unsurprising. October continues the september trend and also is a big trend ender. The data I checked sort of confirms my bias. I can predict a bit in February, January, March, April are not very active May-June are good, I've been predicting reversals July-August it depends September & October the best, september trend but even reversal and those go far February reversals don't count on them to continue... March is unpredictable afaic but catching a move can be a 10-bagger+ Starting from late Feb actually, to mid-late March I'd say, then exit I expect nothing out of November & December So.... Another one, summing up how I see when to follow, when not too, and when to hold a little a lot or not at all: April going to be calm but not too calm hopefully. I wonder if it is the same with stocks? European ones? I wonder what I can do about it? The year is mostly done in February (sometimes January too), May-June, September-October, and sometimes the summer is easy. 5-8 months / 12. What to do the rest of the time? Sell strangles? It's not simply of lower volatility it is much more random with sometimes the same ATR. Just backtesting and analysis and learning? What industry is active in March-April & November-December, vacations? This has to be studied but perhaps I can buy in April a call or put with a June expiry in anticipation of a trend.
by MrRenev
Gold Longs / Charts flipped Calling longs ahead of NFP tomorrow. Pretty controversial for the retail industry, but my mind works different... And I have a diff edge in this market. Don't trust me? Im I a crazy as* mf ? Maybe ... But if you want to win im urging you to go long... IF you want to get wacked keep selling your trend based on your shitty mainstream information. Anyways good Luck. Hold into the prev year highs if you want but you need some strong balls to do that, im doing it... as my profile says im a investor not a retail day trader. Lets make the bag babyyyy
FX:XAUUSDLong
by tropicalinvestor
Bullish confirmation came in.Remember what happened earlier... 1. We have been continuously defending 7200 pivot, and all the shorters in the world couldn't bring us down to 7100! 2. All previous bearish moves, all consisted out of typical correction forms which proves that bears finally lost their power. Bitcoin is now considered cheap if it is sold at 7200. 3. We have been experiencing a prolonged flat around pivot 7300. This flat accumulated a lot of orders, both sell and buy. Nevertheless we rocketed up to 7550 and even then! We didn't fall (as we certainly would if the bears were strong). 4. Now we can observe a little slide back down to 7350, defending the 7400 pivot. If this flat will continuously bounce around 7400 pivot(7387-7425 levels), then It becomes clear, that big players are no longer shortening! A few hours 'till the asians wake up at 00:00 UTC and we will definitely see a lot of volume kicking in. There may be a pump up to 7600-8100 or a bottom retesting at 6900. In any case here it comes!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by orbborisson
Trading The End Of Year Cycle, Is This A Major Low?Many people have pointed out that BTC has a history of making a major chart transition at the end of December of each year going back at least to 2016 when it broke to the upside and never looked back. Then it made a major top around 20k around the end of December 2017, then a major low the end of 2018, and now recently it just crashed but snapped back the end of December 2019. The only time it made a continuation to the down side at the end of the year in the chart was in 2014. All other times if it declined at the end of the year it was only after having run up a huge amount which made the end of the year a top. So since BTC has recently been declining I am looking for this to be a low. Even if this does turn out to be like 2014 and it continues lower, the pattern would be that the next two years would be huge continuations to the up side with few pullbacks to get in. The two most likely paths are: 1.) This is a major low and next year ends much higher (green path on chart) 2.) This is a continuation downside, then next year is a major low followed by two continuatons to the upside and a major top in 2023. In either case the next major top is likely to be far higher than current prices so I think this is an area for long term accumulation and not capitulation for my long term accounts. Cryptos as a whole are making inroads in places they never existed before, such as the ECB, Facebook, the US Congress, etc. Therefore I am looking to gradually dollar cost average on any continued weakness for the next full year.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Accelerated Growth, 2020 Selloff, and a 15 Year Bull RunWe're getting very close to breaking out of the trend line going back twenty years to the 99` bubble. There have been multiple attempts over the last 2-3 years. Trump/ Fed keep lowering rates and want to continue the "expansion". I assume they will be successful and we'll have accelerated growth until 2020 Presidential elections. I expect 3600-4000 SPX before a democrat is elected. I could see Trump and the Fed will allowing the market to fall by raising interest rates and not utilizing the presidents working group on financial markets like was done in the sell off in 2018. That being said I believe the market will resume its bullish trend after a sharp sell off in 2020-2021. This is just my very broad / general long term Technical analysis/ speculation where I am assuming many things, do not trade on this even if the assumptions are correct when the time comes. Trade based on your own analysis. Demographic data and economic cycles align with my speculation as shown by Ciovacco Capital www.youtube.com
TVC:SPXLong
by Tanner
2
Wartsila share are at the lowest price for several yearsWärtsilä, also spelled Wartsila and Waertsilae is a company based in Finland. The company's main business is fitting out the entire engine rooms of large ships. Their website describes the activity as follows: Wärtsilä is a global leader in smart technologies and complete lifecycle solutions for the marine and energy markets. By emphasizing sustainable innovation, total efficiency and data analytics, Wärtsilä maximises the environmental and economic performance of the vessels and power plants of its customers. In 2018, Wärtsilä’s net sales totalled EUR 5.2 billion with approximately 19,000 employees. The company has operations in over 200 locations in more than 80 countries around the world. Wärtsilä is listed on Nasdaq Helsinki. Today, 18/7/2019, the company announced their half year results. The results were worse than expected. Orders missed by 5% on both divisions. EBIT missed by 16%. The outlook was far from bright. They wrote: "The demand for Wärtsilä’s services and solutions in the coming 12 months is expected to be somewhat below that of the previous 12 months (previously in-line)." Analysts are estimating about 5% worse. The shares are down around 11% this morning to EUR 11.15. We can expect a series of analyst downgrades in the coming weeks. This means the share price could well head lower. Prior to the results the shares had already been under pressure, trending lower since March 2019. In fact the share have been a broad based down trend since September 2017, when they traded at a peak of EUR 20.25 now they are EUR 11.15. Prior to today's results the shares had been under pressure after another Finnish company (Fiskars Corporation), decided to distribute its 5% stake in Wartsila as a dividend to its investors. The share were distributed in June 2019. It seems that those investors sold the Wartsila shares, depressing the share price. Whilst it will take quite some time for investors to change their view, and there is little prospect of a share price rise, there are some investors who think new shareholders are getting quite a bargain. 1) dividend yield 4.4% 2) P/e ratio 15X (forecast for 2018) 3) Prospects for refitting engines due to modern pollution controls. 4) The company's leading position in a cyclical market could mean a strong price recovery when the economy improves. The company's recent dividend isn't too bad, being more than 4% of the share price. The company paid a dividend of EUR 0.48 for 2018. Is the dividend sustainable? Wärtsilä's says its target is to pay a dividend of at least 50% of operational earnings over the cycle. In the first half of 2019 the company had earnings per share of EUR 0.22 vs EUR 0.21 in the previous year. Usually the company earns more in the second half than the first half. With an EPS estimate for the full year of EUR 0.60 to EUR 0.80, it looks like the dividend for 2019 might be under threat. At the end of the day, it looks like the shares are going to stay in the doldrums for quite some time until there are concrete signs of recovery. Looking at the chart, I reckon the downtrend can continue for a while. I would stay away.
OMXHEX:WRT1VShort
by Clive_Thompson