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AUD/NZD's Multi-Year Cycle in Full Swing [Time For the Bulls]Another super awesome 'trade of the ages' on this SVP {Super Valuable Pair}! Another Super Valuable Pair similar to this one with identical price behavior is the FX:AUDCAD . Remember the NZD/CAD trades opposite to this one due to the negative correlation. I've been waiting forever for this Inverse Head & Shoulders to complete and lift-off and the party has now truly begun. Target's #1 and #2 have already been hit and the neckline hasn't even broke yet. My 3rd Target is the neckline itself then we really look forward to pyramiding those Buy positions aggressively. This sexy beast is just getting started just like almost all the other pairs with huge Daily and Weekly Head & Shoulder's formations like the Yen pairs just to name a few because they are literally popping up everywhere. I think Year 2016-2017 will be remembered as the year of the Head & Shoulders :) The AUD/NZD and GBP/NZD have a high level of positive correlation with each other so I really expect both pairs to push tremendously higher. The only upcoming event that may potentially hurt any British Pound momentum is the "Brexit" decision which is on June 23rd, 2016 so we'll see but until then I'm bullish FX:AUDCAD , FX:AUDNZD and FX:GBPNZD . However, I'm bearish FX:NZDCAD , FX:EURNZD and FX:NZDJPY which I will talk more about at a later time. Good luck traders, and may all your trades be profitable!
Long
by FractalEyeZ
Year-end gold prediction: $970-$1030Technicals This very strong trendline has been lasting for gold for some time now, and I don't expect it to stop, and it has just been touched, so this looks like a very good place to get in with a short position if you agree with this outlook (many will disagree!). Disadvantages The US economic data is currently not bad, but not great, and consumer spending most certainly isn't great. This suggests that the Fed may not reach, or get much closer to, their inflation target. This could result in backtracks on interest rates which will ultimately result in the price of gold increasing. In addition to this, the markets are pricing in a 13% chance of negative interest rates by 2017! Advantages Despite consumer spending data, I think that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates for the duration of the year. This is because labour statistics remain strong, and the US economy isn't in a poor enough state, in my opinion, for the Fed to halt their rate path. I have tagged an alternative opinion from someone else below.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by olly_price
Christmas and new year's eveThis ADX seems to be heading to a third wave that will be stronger than the other previous two. There may be some retracing in between with a short opportunity between now and christmas. I believe we will keep on an old support and won't go below 400. Then Santa's rally will come and keep up till 2016, then.... who knows, hopefully some sideways calm period, perfect for your january vacations. Once the trend on the ADX establishes, it rarely reverses in the middle. Would like to hear your comments.
OKCOIN:BTCUSDLong
by purpurato59
1
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: AMERICAN EXPRESS RISKS TO TAG 5-YEAR MEANAmerican Express has fallen below 1st standard devations from quarterly (66-day) and yearly (264-day) means, thus entering short term downtrend Price is also trading within 1-st standard deviation from 10-year (520-week) and 5-year (260-week) moving averages, meaning that it is in lateral trend on long term basis If the short term downtrend holds (price trading below 76.4-77.1 levels), there is a high probability to tag 5-year mean at 75 level Scenario is canceled, if price returns to trend on 10-year basis by spiking above 1st standard deviations from 10-year mean (above 80)
NYSE:AXPShort
by Killy_Mel
The Dollar's DecentThe US dollar index was a thing of bubbly-beauty, gaining over 25 percent in a year. Traders thought that after seven years, it is now time for the Federal Reserve to raise rates. Unfortunately, reality is set it. The Fed has always claimed to be data-dependent. First, the potential for a rate hike was when unemployment dropped to 6.5 percent. That came and went as quickly as Americans dropped out of the workforce. Central bankers are no more than politicians. They will tell you what you want to hear, when you want to hear it. Fed Chair Janet Yellen then stated that a "broader" approach to economic data would be taken, and as long as the economy was improving the likelihood of a rate increase. Only one problem - the data has been horrible. Forget mouthpiece economists, like DB's Joe LaVorgna, who paint a "recovery" picture regardless of how bad the data is. Before Janus Capital's Bill Gross or DoubleLine's Jeff Gruanloch, I been a firm believer that the Fed cannot normalize monetary policy because the multiple asset bubbles are derivative of their reckless quasi-monetary experiment, fathered by Ben "there's no housing bubble" Bernanke. The modus operandi of the Fed is inflation, but the global economic climate is deflationary. It is interesting how all the developed nations, including China, has embarked on quantitative easing or other stimulus only to find inflation declining. If the Fed needs inflation, they need a weaker dollar; and increasing interest rates would only strengthen it. The Fed has to prolong the rate hike because it prolongs the inevitable crash. If the Fed truly though the economy was strengthening and weakness was transitory, policy would have been on a path of normalization. But the Fed is not the first to make this mistake. Forex traders remember that the Bank of England was really the first central bank the market was looking to hike rates. After the polar vortex in the US, the England was gaining some economic steam, and the Sterling rose much like the dollar did, reaching a high of 1.71 (GBPUSD). BoE Governor Mark Carney did not have the courage to tighten policy, and the Sterling collapsed. The good economic data points fell from the highs, much like in the US now. The dollar's decent is one of market participants loosing hope of a rate increase on the back of lackluster data with many data points at or approaching levels not seen during the Great Recession. However, the paradox is that the dollar will likely remain elevated on a retaliative basis. I expect the DXY to have an 80-handle by mid-summer, but I do expect the dollar to rise again as the economic outlook darkens. Consumer prices will likely to fall, and there is the potential for a brief period of deflation - like we saw in 2009. The Fed will have no choice but to enter the currency wars. Key daily levels are posted on the chart. Please check out the attached tradingview post. It shows how the dollar traded following 20+% gains - and it's not favorably! Feel free to contact me or check out my work: Twitter: lemieux_26 Bullion.Directory: bullion.directory
INDEX:DXY
by CommoditiesTrader
4