YELP
$YELP - Consistent Channel TradeI've been trading this ticker for a while now, simply due to how consistently it moves!
We've trading within this channel for nearly a month now, and after a brief slipup due to Omicron, bulls are back in control and we've started our ascent back towards the top of the channel.
We can consistently trade this name from the $35 low all the way up to $41 high, with the potential to reach up to $43. If you're entering with options, make sure you give yourself ample time as YELP is a slow mover, and you don't want theta to punish you.
YELP 1W DESCENDING TRIANGLE SHORT TRADEDescending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Earnings Analysis YELP is facing strong resistance ahead of its earnings.
The Stock's price is below 35-36$, which is a strong weekly Zone that includes the weekly downtrend line and 3 weekly MA lines (including the 200 weeks MA line).
The scenarios:
- Bearish:
If YELP will remain below the current Resistance Zone (probably will gap lower), it can slide all the way down to complete a bullish harmonic pattern (Gartley), near 22$ - Remember this is a weekly chart so it can take weeks/months
- Bullish:
If YELP will have positive earnings that will boost its price above the 200 weeks MA line (and stay above), a potential scenario is that it will climb to complete a bearish Bat near 50$ - Again, this can take weeks/months.
It looks like the earnings will generate a strong move anyway - So, for you options traders...
No Time for Comfort As Brakes Screech On the Oversold BounceAT40 = 35.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)
AT200 = 34.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 17.4
Short-term Trading Call: bullish
Commentary
Hold up. Pump the brakes. The bounce from oversold conditions just got more difficult as sellers forced buyers to come to a screeching halt.
The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 0.9% in what looks like a “close enough” failure at downtrending 50-day moving average (DMA) resistance. In a bit of good news, the index also bounced picture-perfect style off its 200DMA support. I will call it a stalemate.
{The S&P 500 (SPY) looks like it is caught in a trading range as buyers fail to punch through the previous peak or 50DMA resistance. The bounce from 200DMA support was a bit of good news.}
The tech-laden NASDAQ and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) were not as fortunate as the S&P 500. Both lost 200DMA support with the NASDAQ gapping down for a 1.7% loss and QQQ slicing through support for its own 1.7% loss. Adding insult to injury, at their intraday lows, both indices reversed their post-election gains.
{Momentum for the NASDAQ came to a screeching halt after gapping below 200DMA support.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) bounced from its low of the day, but the buying was not enough to recover 200DMA support.}
The selling was not enough to rattle the volatility index, the VIX. The VIX only gained 3.8% and even fell sharply from its high of the day. The VIX still looks ready to continue its post oversold implosion. Accordingly, I bought a fresh tranche of put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) with a 2-week expiration.
{The volatility index, the VIX, gained for the second straight day but could not even manage a close above Wednesday's intraday high.}
The currency markets showed some signs of stress in-line with a risk-off day. The Australian dollar (FXA) weakened and the Japanese yen (FXY). As a result, AUD/JPY suffered a notable pullback. I will not get concerned until/unless 200DMA support gives way. I used the pullback to build a slightly larger long position on AUD/JPY.
{AUD/JPY pulled back on a risk-off day across financial markets. The pair is still holding onto a bullish 200DMA breakout.}
A reversal like Friday’s makes bulls doubt their rationale for excitement just two days ago and gives bears reason for fresh skepticism. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, tells me to be cautious, but not to downgrade my short-term trading call of bullish. AT40 dropped back to 35.5% and is still in the early stages of a rebound from oversold conditions. AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, only dropped to 34.8% from Wednesday’s peak of 37.4%. I am more inclined to think that the market will churn and digest gains from the rebound. I will reconsider the bearish case if the S&P 500 closes below its 200DMA support.
I stuck to my post oversold strategy of buying the dips and bought SPY call options. I plan to sell these into the next bounce. However, my core position in iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) call options experienced a big setback. With just a week to go before expiration, Friday’s 1.8% pullback was enough to wipe out most of the profits in those call options. I will now need to sell into the next bounce rather than wait for what I still think is an imminent retest of 50DMA resistance.
{The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) lost 1.9% but bounced off its 20DMA support. }
THE WEEK AHEAD: US MID-TERMS; SQ, MRO, ROKU, ATVI, HTZ, YELPUnless you've been living under a rock, you'll know that Tuesday is the U.S.'s mid-term elections. Polls will be open throughout the New York session and won't close until we're well into the Asian with polls closing on the East Coast first and then gradually progressing west through time zones. Actual results aren't likely to be known until at least 9 p.m. or so CST, so if you're going to play, you're potentially in for a long night. The only instrument probably worth looking at from a liquidity/volume standpoint for scalping around the time of election results is the E-mini S&P futures (or a corresponding proxy) and/or futures options, which is why I've posted a marked-up /ES chart here, which identifies fairly transparent, large time-frame horizontal support/resistance areas, so that when you drill down into lower time frames, you'll have those for context. Naturally, this is not as big of a deal as the general elections (if you recall, a really wild ride that was basically over by NY open), but may present some good scalping opportunities. On Tuesday night after NY close, I'll drill down a little more in time and mark up the chart a little further ... .
Aside from the elections, we've got some earnings on tap, too: OXY (96/34) and MYL (89/48) announce earnings on Monday after market close; LLY (82/29) and CVS (70/35) on Tuesday before market open; SQ (83/73), MRO (72/51), and ROKU (69/96) on Wednesday after market close; ATVI (85/46), DIS (73/26), HTZ (89/96), and YELP (83/72) on Thursday after market close. My preference in single name is for underlyings with a rank >70 and a 30-day >50, so I would lean toward playing SQ, MRO, ROKU, ATVI, HTZ, and/or YELP as volatility contraction plays. This is particularly nice here, since those all occur after the elections, which will allow the broader market to sort itself out first.
On the exchange-traded fund front: USO (100/32), XOP (70/37), EEM (73/26), IWM (65/24), and QQQ (62/26) round out the top implied volatility rank exchange-traded funds on my list.
Since I'm already in most of the exchange-traded funds (although I don't have any RUT on): CAT (78/36) already announced earnings, but still has some volatility left in it, as does NFLX (69/53), so I could see selling in a little premium in those if the post-election market just gives me nothing better to do ... .
A Suspect Breakout for the S&P 500A Suspect Breakout for the S&P 500
AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)
AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 11.8
Short-term Trading Call: neutral
Commentary
The stock market is not quite out the (short-term) woods yet.
Last Wednesday I pointed out why the latest bearish divergence forced me to back down from my cautiously bullish short-term trading call. My neutral stance reflected a fresh wariness over an S&P 500 (SPY) grinding higher without the confirmation of a higher AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs).
The S&P 500 (SPY) proceeded to bolt higher on Thursday to a fresh all-time high with a close that stretched above its upper Bollinger Band (BB). AT40 traded higher along with the S&P 500, but my favorite technical indicator failed to break out from its two week range which itself is at the bottom of a 5 month range. The stretch above the upper-BB was enough to prevent me from chasing the S&P 500 against my change in short-term trading call. The lack of confirmation from AT40 sealed the deal and even increased the risk for an imminent pullback by my calculation.
On Friday, the S&P 500 (SPY) pressed higher intraday only to fade to a slightly lower close. AT40 broke out and then faded right back into its trading range. With a Federal Reserve meeting as a potential catalyst, I go into the coming week wary of the next short-term pullback.
In an on-going change of fortunes, the tech-laden NASDAQ and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) are lagging the S&P 500. Both indices last hit all-time highs almost a month ago. Tech stocks have been unable to regain momentum since then even though the uptrending 20 and 50DMAs continue to guide tech stocks.
The volatility index, the VIX, remains a very interesting part of the stock market’s divergent behavior. The VIX ended a down week at 11.7, just above recent lows and just above the 11 level which marks “extremely low volatility” (ELV). This level of complacency underlines the market’s overall bullish mood. It also makes portfolio protection very cheap. October is the last month of the year that includes a history of danger for the stock market, so it makes sense to load up on the “bargains” on SPY put options and long volatility trades. Since I am not (yet?) bearish, I chose with the long volatility trade. I bought yet another tranche of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) call options at the same time I let the last tranche wither away to nothingness.
A falling U.S. dollar index is helping the bullish mood by offsetting the negative impact of trade tensions on stocks with international sensitivities. There is likely a virtuous circle going on as the (surprisingly) positive response to heightening trade tensions is taking steam out of the dollar. A lower dollar is helping boost the outlook beyond U.S. borders. Commodity-related stocks were on fire (I clearly sold my call options on BHP Billiton (BHP) too early) and emerging market currencies did very well.
The dollar weakened despite a fresh surge in long-term interest rates. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) sold off hard this week and allowed me to take profits on my last tranche of TLT puts. Still, if I am to believe the other signals in the market, long-term rates are not going much higher from here, and the Federal Reserve this coming week is set to reassure markets about future monetary tightening. If instead the news upsets the market, I will pounce on fades of many of the trades that assumed otherwise.
YELP needs to help itself$44.19 solid support line, smaller arrows show where the stock stopped moving/price pivoted
Trending resistance has now forced a wedge that will squeeze the YELP price north towards confirmation of that
trending resistance line. Enter volume and favorable SENTIMENT and we will see a breakout north to $46.77,
a price point that YELP finds comfort in, as indicated from Aug 27 - Sept 4
Will YELP prove me right? It's stocks, i have no idea!
Let's see what happens!
**DISCLAIMER - I am not a professional stock guy, please seek professional advise on all your stock moves. This is a hobby of mine.
$YELP | Bullish Outlook | Long Term ViewHello Traders,
YELP is showing signs of bullishness. Applying the Predictive/Forecasting model gives us the following numerical targets:
High Probability = 50.38
Medium Probability = 57.40
Low Probability = 67.69
Note the Fibonacci matrix to the left. The Medium and Low Probability targets line up closley with the 0.5 and 0.382 levels of the Fibonacci matrix. This is where bulls will start to lose steam as the bears start to make their presence felt.
For now, this is a great long opportunity.
Best,
Chartistry
S&P 500 Historic All-Time Shines Cautious Light On Opportunities"The S&P 500 printed its first all-time high in 7 months just in time for a record bull market. The good mood underlines new trade opps."
S&P 500 Historic All-Time Shines Cautious Light On Opportunities drduru.com $SPY $QQQ $IWM $XRT $XLF #VIX $BA $BBY $CAT $BIDU $CSCO $DKS $HIBB $FB $GE $M $MTCH $NFLX $NIB $QCOM $RDFN $Z $TOL $TSLA $WMT $YELP #AT40 #T2108
$AAPL has interest in $YELP because...If you open up your iphone's map application and search around for food you'll see that $AAPL will direct you towards $YELP's platform. Ultimately this shows that #apple has interest in #yelp's success and would compete against #GOOGL to make sure they sustain their market position. Do you think $AAPL would really want to lose to $GOOG maps?
I don't see anything wrong with considering $YELP at these price levels because you never know which entity with 100B+ balance sheet would consider acquiring $YELP...
THE WEEK AHEAD: HTZ, YELP EARNINGS; SLV/GLD/GDX LONGSHTZ puts the pedal to the metal on Monday after market close and is at the 52% mark of its 52-week range and has a 30-day implied of 75%.
Due to its size, I'd probably only go short straddle: the Aug 17th 16 short straddle is paying 2.28 with a 25% take profit of .57.
YELP shout outs its earnings on Wednesday (8/8) after market close (rank 66/30-day implied 61).
Pictured here are two setups: an Aug 17th 38 short straddle and an Aug 17th 34/43 short strangle. The short straddle is paying 4.56 with a 25% take profit of 1.14; the short strangle, 1.49, with a 50% take profit of .75.
On the exchange-traded fund side of things, not much is hopping with the only underlying ranked above 50% for the past 52 weeks being USO (rank 59; implied 26), with everything coming in at sub-35% for 30-day implied, which makes things temporarily unattractive in this area. (EWZ's at 32, XOP at 25, OIH at 25, and it kind of goes downhill from there).
In the single name underlyings with earnings announcements in the rear view mirror, TSLA tops out the list with 51% 30-day, followed by TWTR (43), X (40), and RIG (40).
In the major food group area: GLD, SLV, and GDX are all are fairly long-term horizontal support, so it may be worth taking a small bullish directional shot in one of those, although it's possible that's there more pain ahead for gold/silver/miners with another rate hike on tap in September. TLT: I'm looking for another short opportunity (probably on risk off) at horizontal resistance in the 122 to 122.50 area (we were at 119.22 on Friday, up .49 from Thursday's close). /CL's come quite a bit off of its nearly 73 high, but it's also somewhat off horizontal support at 64; I don't see much to do there directionally until it inflects with one of those prices (for that very reason, I could see something nondirectional here, if only XOP would throw all little more volatility my way, which is what I usually use to play oil nondirectionally). With the broad index funds (SPY, IWM, QQQ), all-time highs are again in view (287 in SPY, 170 IWM, 183 in QQQ); I could see a small directional short setup in one of those instruments, if only to add some short delta into your mix if you're getting too long (assuming you didn't add some on the last flirtation with all-time-highs ... ).