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USD/JPY H4 | Potential rebound off 78.5 Fibonacci retracement?USD/JPY is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 152.80 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 150.15 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level. Take profit is at 154.70 which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Minor rebound after strong pullback?GBP/JPY has just bounced off the pivot. Could this FX pair potentially climb higher towards the 1st resistance? Pivot: 191.80 1st Support: 190.17 1st Resistance: 193.38 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY H4 | Falling to 61.8% Fibonacci supportUSD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 154.60 which is a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 152.48 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 156.91 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
3
GBP/JPY: Race back to 200.000? On Monday, the yen dropped to 160.000 per dollar, marking its lowest level since 1990, before rebounding more than 3% to 154.5 per dollar. This rebound was suspected to be the result of intervention by Japanese authorities. According to reports from Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely injected ¥5.5 trillion into the currency markets after discrepancies were noted in the BoJ's operations report on Tuesday, where market forecasts didn't align with reported current account figures. Both the GBP/JPY and USD/JPY pairs are gradually recovering on the charts. The USD/JPY is testing levels above 157.500, while the GBP/JPY is eyeing 197.00. Both pairs could keep on advancing if the forthcoming US data continues to surprise. Notably, the Fed taking a hawkish tone after its FOMC decision on Wednesday and jobs data due on Friday. The GBP/JPY's recent peak at 200.60 remains a key target for traders despite potential intervention by the BoJ. Looking forward, market sentiment could appear bullish, with attention focused on key levels such as the 193.600 resistance-turned-support and the 10-day SMA.
by BlackBull_Markets
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Long
by bryandowningqln
UJLike GJ, I am staying very far away. WEEKLY We are currently testing with a hanging man, which is usually a reversal candlestick, so we will keep waiting for it to complete as it can change. DAILY This is the highest price UJ has ever crossed in its history, which indicates the strength of the dollar to the Yen. Which is why we can watch as well what the DXY is doing as this is the index to give us ideas of where the market is going. 4H We have been in an ascending channel, this is only the second touch of the touch of the channel so we cannot assume yet that there will be a drop. If we get an override through pattern confirmation or candlestick confirmation then we could look for shorts. We are in an expanding channel within an ascending channel, so we could actually just be continuing to the upside and we are mid-range so it's not best to do anything. 1H Just stay watching.
by Mhangwane1
GJI am staying out of it. It is confusing and that's when it's best to stay away and out of the market. DAILY We peaked at 200.50, which is good to look out for possible buys into the market. Which last happened in 2015. This is the final (3rd leg) of the double bottom (W formation). 4H Ascending Channel within an ascending channel is what we look for when trying to get sells. Which will give us added information for our case of evidence. With where price is (mid=range) it is better to stay out and stay away. 1H Same as the 4H. Just stay away and stay watching.
by Mhangwane1
The Yen's Wobble: Bank of Japan in a Policy BindThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) finds itself caught in a precarious situation as it grapples with defending the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). With global inflation on the rise and other central banks tightening monetary policy, the BOJ faces a difficult choice: intervene in the currency market or stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. The Yen's depreciation stems from a divergence in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The BOJ has stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose policy, keeping interest rates at a negative 0.1% for nearly eight years. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has begun raising rates to combat inflation. This difference in interest rates makes the US Dollar (USD) a more attractive asset for investors, leading to a decline in the Yen's value. A weakening Yen presents a double-edged sword for Japan. On the one hand, it benefits exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. However, on the other hand, a weaker Yen translates to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities like oil and gas, which are already experiencing price hikes due to global factors. This translates to a squeeze on Japanese consumers' wallets and fuels inflationary pressures domestically. The BOJ has a couple of options to address this dilemma. One option is to intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its massive war chest of over $1.2 trillion worth of US Treasuries (as of February 2024 data). This intervention would theoretically raise the value of the Yen by increasing demand for it. However, such a move is not without its risks. Selling a significant amount of US Treasuries could cause their yields, or the interest rates investors receive for holding them, to spike. This could have a ripple effect on global financial markets, potentially destabilizing them. Furthermore, Japan's intervention might be seen as futile if the underlying cause, the policy divergence with other central banks, is not addressed. The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated, with some economists arguing that it is a temporary solution at best. The other option for the BOJ is to raise interest rates. This would bring Japan more in line with other central banks and potentially make the Yen a more attractive asset for investors. However, the BOJ has been reluctant to raise rates for several reasons. One concern is that raising rates could derail Japan's fragile economic recovery. The country has struggled with deflation, or persistently falling prices, for decades, and raising rates could dampen economic activity. Additionally, many Japanese businesses and households have become accustomed to, and even dependent on, the low-interest-rate environment. Raising rates too quickly could lead to financial instability. The BOJ's decision to maintain negative interest rates at its April 26th meeting underscores this cautious approach. This decision, while expected by many analysts, further highlights the difficult balancing act the BOJ faces. The path forward for the BOJ remains uncertain. The bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates as global inflationary pressures persist. However, the timing and pace of such hikes will be crucial. The BOJ needs to find a way to defend the Yen without jeopardizing the economic recovery or causing undue financial market volatility. This situation serves as a reminder of the complex challenges central banks face in a time of global economic uncertainty.
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY: Why It Dropped? 🇺🇸🇯🇵 This morning, USDJPY dropped by more than 500 pips this morning. If you are looking for a reason why it happened, remember that historical structure always leaves clues. The price perfectly respected a historic structure of 1990th. Today, we see a perfect example how important are historical levels, and how the market remembers the things that happened more than 30 years ago. Learn key levels because that is the key for successful trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Levels discussed on livestream 26th April26th April DXY: Consolidate along 105.60, could retest 106, but likely to range between 105.60 and 106 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5945 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6550 SL 30 TP 60 USDJPY: Watch for 157, could scalp up to 158 Sell Stop in place, in case of intervention GBPUSD: Sell 1.2520 SL 30 TP 90 EURUSD: Buy 1.0760 SL 40 TP 100 (hesitation at 1.0815) USDCHF: Sell 0.9115 SL 20 TP 50 USDCAD: Look for reaction at 1.3610 Gold: Continue trading higher to 2360 (61.8%)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies. The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level. Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156. Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level? From the BoJ today Kept rates on Hold No comments about an intervention Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
by JinDao_Tai
GBPJPY - Long Trade IdeaI like the long idea here. If the current day can form a Bisi, that would be fantastic. After that I would just be looking price to trade back into the Bisi, into one of the key Breaker levels annotated, at the right time of the day, then STRIKE. The highest-probability target would be the recent high, and the next discretionary target would be my Wick Chair model (out of view), which basically also has some EQHs as well. A runner could be left for even higher prices should both targets be hit. The stoploss is discretionary for a better RR as this is the Daily timeframe. The safest option would be the protected low annotated on the chart. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
GBP/JPY H1 | Heading into resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 194.91 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 195.47 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and the pullback resistance. Take profit is at 194.14 which is a pullback support that lies above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM