Get started

Yen

USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a multi-swing-high resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 143.88 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 144.70 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 142.41 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 15, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is declining during the Asian session on Tuesday, which, along with a modest rise in the US dollar (USD), is lifting the USD/JPY pair closer to the mid-143.00s. US President Donald Trump's cancellation of tariffs on major consumer electronics and the signal that he may temporarily exempt the auto industry from the 25 per cent duties continue to support market optimism. This in turn undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. However, the rapidly escalating trade war between the US and China and lingering concerns over the potential economic impact of Trump's crippling tariffs should temper market optimism. Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates are strongly at odds with bets on more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, along with hopes of a trade deal between the US and Japan, should limit losses for the low-yielding Yen. Trade recommendation: SELL 142.80, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY - Bearish Momentum Points to Further Downside PotentialBased on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart, the higher probability move appears to be to the downside. The pair has established a clear downtrend since early February, with lower highs and lower lows, and recently broke below the significant support level around 144.00. The recent steep decline from late March to early April shows strong bearish momentum, with price now hovering near 143.50 after a modest retracement. The charted projection suggests further downside movement with potential targets around 142.00-141.00 in the short term, while the highlighted support zone around 142.00 and major support at 139.64 could attract price action. With resistance firmly established in the 147.00-148.00 region and the overall bearish structure intact, sellers appear to have control of this market for the foreseeable future. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by financialflagship
Quotes Dropping? Here’s How to Find Support & Gain Best DealHave you ever found yourself wondering how to make sense of fluctuating quotes? What if I told you that the powerful key lies in understanding the power of expected range volatility? Ready? Let me 5 min to introduce you how understanding expected range volatility can give you the edge you need to succeed. The expected range volatility (ER) provides a framework for understanding how much the asset could move within a specific timeframe. Statistically, price movements within the expected volatility corridor have a 68% probability, based on CME market data and a Nobel Prize-winning calculation formula. This means that traders can rely on these insights as a powerful filter for making more precise entry points into trades. Key insight: when the market is quiet, and we approach certain price levels, there’s a 68% chance that the price won’t break through those boundaries. The ER formula is available on the CME exchange's website, and in just a few minutes, you can input the data to get incredible results. It’s truly amazing! I remember the first time I stumbled upon the ER tool. It felt like finding a gold mine in the trading world! I was amazed that such a powerful resource was available for free, yet it remained unnoticed by 95% of traders. At that moment, I began to explore the trading community and was shocked to see how underestimated this tool was. I couldn’t find a single author who utilized such valuable data in their analysis. But once I began to focus on expected range volatility and the data provided by the CME, everything changed. Since that I never make intraday trades without ER data was checked. Limitations: • Market Dynamics: Short-term price movements can be unpredictable due to various factors like market sentiment, news, and economic events. The Expected Range provides a statistical estimate but does not guarantee outcomes. • Assumptions: The formulas assume that price movements follow a log-normal distribution , which may not hold true in all market conditions. So, what about you? Do you utilizing the power of expected range volatility in your trading strategy? Share your thoughts in the comments below! And if you want make deeper insights , don’t forget to subscribe us. In the world of trading, knowledge is power. No Valuable Data - No Edge!🚀💰
CME:6JM2025Long
by ClashChartsTeam
Yen Gains on Recession FearsThe yen rose past 144 per dollar, a six-month high, as U.S. recession fears and a Treasury selloff boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Although Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days, total U.S. tariffs on China now stand at 145%, prompting retaliation with China imposing 84% tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S.-Japan trade outlook remains in focus, with Japan still facing a 10% U.S. tariff but seeking better terms. Key resistance is at 145.80, with further levels at 148.00 and 152.70. Support stands at 142.00, followed by 139.65 and 138.00.
by ChartMage
EUR/JPY Continues to Oscillate Within a Broad Sideways RangeThe euro has appreciated more than 1.5% against the Japanese yen over the last two sessions, and the growing bullish momentum in EUR/JPY has been driven mainly by renewed confidence in the euro following the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. Additionally, the yen has come under downward pressure due to a reduction in safe-haven demand, prompted by Trump’s recent comments suggesting a pause in most tariffs targeting dozens of countries previously threatened in recent weeks. As the trade situation begins to stabilize, bullish pressure on EUR/JPY could become increasingly relevant in the short term. Broad Sideways Range: Since early August, a key sideways channel has taken shape, with resistance near 164.879 and support at 156.576. The price has tested both levels on multiple occasions but has so far failed to break out of this long-standing range. For now, this remains the most important technical formation to watch in upcoming trading sessions. MACD: The MACD histogram has approached the zero line and could be setting up for a bullish crossover, which may signal that the moving average momentum is starting to shift in favor of buying pressure. As the histogram moves further away from the neutral level, bullish momentum may gain even more significance on the chart. TRIX: The TRIX indicator line continues to oscillate above the zero line, indicating a prevailing bullish impulse. If the line continues to rise, this could lead to a stronger bullish momentum developing in the short term. Key Levels: 164.879 – Upper Range Resistance: This level marks the top of the broad sideways channel and remains the most important resistance in the short term. Price action near this area may continue to reinforce bullish sentiment and could pave the way for a short-term uptrend. 160.655 – Near Support: A mid-range barrier that aligns with the 100-period simple moving average. Continued price action near this level may reinforce the current neutral range, keeping the existing structure intact. 156.576 – Major Support: This level corresponds to the lowest prices in recent months. A clear breakdown below this level could trigger a relevant bearish breakout, opening the door to a new downward trend. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
Yen Climbs as Trump Softens Stance on Japan TariffsThe Japanese yen strengthened past 147 per dollar on Thursday, moving in a volatile range as trade tensions persisted. Markets reacted to President Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries, offering Japan some relief with a reduced 10% baseline tariff. However, tensions remained elevated as Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to Beijing’s retaliation. The EU may be excluded from the pause due to its own countermeasures. Meanwhile, the U.S. confirmed plans to begin trade talks with Japan after Trump’s call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Key resistance is at 148.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 157.70. Support stands at 145.60, followed by 143.00 and 141.80.
by ChartMage
USD/JPY H1 | Pullback resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 146.018 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 146.98 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 144.54 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USD/JPY M30 | Falling to overlap supportUSD/JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 146.62 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 145.71 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 148.09 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
2
AUD/JPY H1 | Upward momentum gaining traction?AUD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 88.75 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 87.60 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 90.63 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
GBP/JPY: Yen Strength Pushes Price Toward Key SupportGBP/JPY has posted a decline of more than 3% over the last four trading sessions, with bearish momentum growing as the market increasingly favors the Japanese yen in the short term. Demand for the yen has risen sharply since last week, when Donald Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on all imports into the United States. This was further reinforced today by new comments proposing additional 50% tariffs on China, following Beijing’s announcement of countermeasures against the U.S. The yen is historically considered one of the safest currencies, and the recent surge in uncertainty has helped it hold strong against the British pound. Wide Sideways Range The pair remains within a broad long-term range, bounded by a ceiling near 198.676 and a floor around 186.932. Although recent selling has brought the pair close to the lower boundary, price action has not yet been strong enough to break this level, keeping the sideways channel as the dominant technical formation to watch for now. MACD The MACD indicator has started to show a shift in market momentum, with the histogram oscillating below the zero line. This reflects ongoing bearish pressure based on recent moving average behavior, and as long as this pattern persists, selling momentum in GBP/JPY may become increasingly relevant in the coming sessions. RSI The RSI also reflects a bearish tone, with the line currently holding below the 50 level. However, the indicator is gradually approaching the oversold zone near the 30 level, which is typically where selling pressure may begin to ease, potentially opening the door for short-term bullish corrections. Key Levels: 192.493 – Key resistance: Located in the middle of the broader range and roughly aligned with the 200-period moving average. Persistent price action near this level may signal the beginning of a bullish bias in the short term. 190.144 – Tentative zone: This level may act as a potential area for short-term bullish corrections. 186.932 – Current support: Positioned at the bottom of the broader range. If price action breaks below this level, it could pave the way for a much more significant downtrend in the sessions ahead. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
1
USDJPY - 4H more fall expectedFX:USDJPY - 4H Update 🔻 If you've traded USDJPY in recent years, you're no stranger to the significance of the 150.00 zone. This level has historically acted as a critical resistance and psychological barrier. Now, the pair is trading below this key level and has also broken the ascending channel support on the daily timeframe, signaling that bulls are likely out of the game. The recent drop to 147.00 and bounce toward 151.00 could be setting up the next short opportunity. 📌 What to watch for: A liquidity grab above the 151.50–152.00 zone could occur before the next fall. This aligns with institutional behavior, hunting stops before continuing the trend. We're now in a sell-the-rally phase, watching for confirmations around the red zone. Remember, I previously signaled a short from the 157 zone, which played out beautifully. We’re now gearing up for the next big short, and this setup might just be it. 📉 Stay cautious, wait for price action signals, and trust the structure. 💸 If you’ve missed previous entries, don’t miss what’s coming next! 🔔 Follow for real-time updates and live trade ideas!
Short
by Sober_Trading
14
USD/JPY Stands Firm, But Volatility ExpectedVolatility has receded with less than 20-hours to go until Trump's tariffs are officially implemented, with traders now clearly in watch-and-wait mode. So while headline risks around tariffs remain in place, moves could remain limited unless traders are treated to any last-minute negotiations. Typically, risk has benefitted when it has been expected that tariffs have been watered down. If that turns out to be the case by Trump's speech at 4pm ET Wednesday, indices could rise alongside the US dollar and the yen weaken. Bit of course, the opposite is true. And that could weigh on USD/JPY. Rightly or wrongly, I'm feeling optimistic and now seeing a bounce on USD/JPY. Two bullish pinbars found support and close above the 20-day SMA and monthly pivot point. The bias remains bullish while prices remain above Monday's low, and a break above 150 brings the 200-day SMA, February VPOPC and 152 handle into focus. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Long
by CityIndex
USDJPY Short OpportunityPoint and Figure charting is the OG technical analysis method—no fancy candlesticks or bar charts needed. Unlike other charts, Point and Figure ignores time and focuses purely on price action, offering clarity amid market noise. If candlestick charts look too chaotic for your taste, Point and Figure usually clears things up. Its simplicity is its best feature: fewer patterns and straightforward trade execution rules, compared to the 150+ patterns of Japanese Candlesticks. On the USDJPY 40-pip/3-box reversal P&F chart, a bear flag pattern is currently being tested and acting as solid resistance. This creates an aggressive but appealing short entry opportunity at 148.80. Below this entry, there are multiple potential profit targets, with T3 (141.60) marking the maximum realistic expectation. Now, before you get too excited about a single-column collapse from 148.80 down to 141.60—hold your horses. The odds of USDJPY making such a dramatic drop in one swift move are slim to none. But given the current international trade tensions, stranger things have happened. Think of the area between 148.80 and 141.60 as a zone where it's easier for USDJPY to drift downward rather than grind upward.
Short
by itsjustanalysis
1
GBP/JPY SELL SETUP 250 PIPS1️⃣ Macro Fundamental Analysis (GBP vs. JPY) 🔹 Interest Rate Differentials (Carry Trade Impact) Bank of England (GBP) The BoE has kept rates high to fight inflation. Higher GBP rates → capital inflows into GBP assets. Bullish for GBP/JPY. Bank of Japan (JPY) BoJ is still ultra-dovish, keeping negative/low interest rates. Japan’s government wants a weak yen to support exports. Bearish for JPY, Bullish for GBP/JPY (carry trade flows into GBP). 📊 Institutional View: Hedge funds & large investors prefer long GBP/JPY due to high interest rate spreads. GBP/JPY remains fundamentally bullish due to carry trade inflows. 🔹 Global Risk Sentiment (Risk-On vs. Risk-Off) GBP/JPY is a "risk-on" pair → it rises when markets are bullish and falls when investors seek safety. If stock markets are bullish, GBP/JPY tends to rise. If there’s a global crisis, investors move into JPY (safe-haven), causing GBP/JPY to fall. Current Market Sentiment: Stock markets are uncertain, but no full risk-off move yet. Watch equity markets & US bond yields for risk sentiment confirmation. 📊 Institutional View: Mild risk-on bias → GBP/JPY has support, but volatility remains high. 🔹 Institutional Positioning (COT Data & Hedge Fund Flows) Hedge funds have been buying GBP against JPY due to the rate differential. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Shows institutional investors are still net long GBP/JPY but reducing positions. Some profit-taking could lead to short-term downside. 📊 Institutional View: Long-term institutional bias is bullish, but hedge funds may reduce positions if risk-off sentiment increases. 2️⃣ Technical Analysis (ITPM Style) – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown 🔹 GBP/JPY (Daily Timeframe) 📈 Trend: Still in an uptrend, but approaching resistance. 📌 Key Resistance: 195.00 - 196.00 📌 Key Support: 191.00 - 190.00 🔹 Price is struggling at resistance near 194.00. 🔹 Possible pullback to 191.50 - 192.00 before resuming higher. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H4 Timeframe) 📉 Short-Term Weakness, but Still in an Uptrend Channel 📌 Key Level to Watch: 192.50 - 193.00 🔹 Bearish Rejection at 194.00, but still inside an uptrend structure. 🔹 If price breaks below 192.50, a deeper correction to 191.00 is likely. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H1 Timeframe) 📉 Intraday Weakness, Watch 192.50 for Breakdown 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 193.50 - 194.00 Support: 192.50 (short-term support), 191.50 (stronger support) 📊 Institutional View: Intraday traders may take short positions below 192.50, targeting 191.50 - 191.00. 3️⃣ Institutional Trade Setup (ITPM Style) 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Correction) Entry: Sell below 192.50 (Break of key support). Target: 191.50 → 190.00 (support zone). Stop-Loss: Above 193.50. Rationale: Short-term hedge funds taking profits → minor pullback in bullish trend.
Short
by ShinForex1
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 2, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to capitalise on the previous day's modest gains against its US counterpart and attracts fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The USD/JPY pair, however, remains in the range it has been in since the beginning of this week as traders await a new catalyst before positioning for the next leg of directional movement. As such, attention will remain focused on US President Donald Trump's announcement of retaliatory tariffs later today. Meanwhile, speculation that the slowdown in the economy caused by the tariffs may force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep policy steady for now is undermining the yen. However, investors seem convinced that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. This is a significant divergence from the growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (BoJ) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, and should support the lower-yielding Japanese Yen. Trade recommendation: SELL 150.00, SL 150.90, TP 148.60
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Behind the Curtain: Macro Indicators That Move the Yen1. Introduction Japanese Yen Futures (6J), traded on the CME, offer traders a window into one of the world’s most strategically important currencies. The yen is not just Japan’s currency—it’s also a barometer for global risk appetite, a funding vehicle for the carry trade, and a defensive asset when markets turn volatile. But what truly moves Yen Futures? While many traders fixate on central bank statements and geopolitical news, machine learning tells us that economic indicators quietly—but consistently—steer price action. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to reveal the top macroeconomic indicators driving 6J Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, helping traders of all styles align their strategies with the deeper economic current. 2. Understanding Yen Futures Contracts Whether you’re trading institutional size or operating with a retail account, CME Group offers flexible exposure to the Japanese yen through two contracts: o Standard Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Contract Size: ¥12,500,000 Tick Size: 0.0000005 = $6.25 per tick Use Case: Institutional hedging, macro speculation, rate differential trading o Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY): Contract Size: ¥1,250,000 Tick Size: 0.000001 = $1.25 per tick Use Case: Retail-sized access, position scaling, strategy testing o Margin Requirements: 6J: Approx. $3,300 per contract MJY: Approx. $330 per contract Both products offer deep liquidity and near 24-hour access. Traders use them to express views on interest rate divergence, U.S.-Japan trade dynamics, and global macro shifts—all while adjusting risk through contract size. 3. Daily Timeframe: Top Macro Catalysts Short-term movements in Yen Futures are heavily influenced by U.S. economic data and its impact on yield spreads and capital flow. Machine learning analysis ranks the following three as the most influential for daily returns: 10-Year Treasury Yield: The most sensitive indicator for the yen. Rising U.S. yields widen the U.S.-Japan rate gap, strengthening the dollar and weakening the yen. Drops in yields could create sharp yen rallies. U.S. Trade Balance: A narrowing trade deficit can support the USD via improved capital flow outlook, pressuring the yen. A wider deficit may signal weakening demand for USD, providing potential support for yen futures. Durable Goods Orders: A proxy for economic confidence and future investment. Strong orders suggest economic resilience, which tends to benefit the dollar. Weak numbers may point to a slowdown, prompting defensive yen buying. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Intermediate-Term Indicators Swing traders and macro tacticians often ride trends formed by mid-cycle economic shifts. On a weekly basis, these indicators matter most: Fed Funds Rate: As the foundation of U.S. interest rates, this policy tool steers the entire FX complex. Hawkish surprises can pressure yen futures; dovish turns could strengthen the yen as yield differentials narrow. 10-Year Treasury Yield (again): While impactful daily, the weekly trend gives traders a clearer view of long-term investor positioning and bond market sentiment. Sustained moves signal deeper macro shifts. ISM Manufacturing Employment: This labor-market-linked metric reflects production demand. A drop often precedes softening economic growth, which may boost the yen as traders reduce exposure to riskier assets. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Structural Macro Forces For position traders and macro investors, longer-term flows into the Japanese yen are shaped by broader inflationary trends, liquidity shifts, and housing demand. Machine learning surfaced the following as top monthly influences on Yen Futures: PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: A unique upstream inflation gauge. Rising producer prices—especially in essentials like food—can increase expectations for tightening, influencing global yield differentials. For the yen, which thrives when inflation is low, surging PPI may drive USD demand and weaken the yen. M2 Money Supply: Reflects monetary liquidity. A sharp increase in M2 may spark inflation fears, sending interest rates—and the dollar—higher, pressuring the yen. Conversely, slower M2 growth can support the yen as global liquidity tightens. Housing Starts: Serves as a growth thermometer. Robust housing data suggests strong domestic demand in the U.S., favoring the dollar over the yen. Weakness in this sector may support yen strength as traders rotate defensively. 6. Trade Style Alignment with Macro Data Each indicator resonates differently depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: React to real-time changes in 10-Year Yields, Durable Goods Orders, and Trade Balance. These traders seek to capitalize on intraday volatility around economic releases that impact yield spreads and risk appetite. Swing Traders: Position around Fed Funds Rate changes, weekly shifts in Treasury yields, or deteriorating labor signals such as ISM Employment. Weekly data can establish trends that last multiple sessions, making it ideal for this style. Position Traders: Monitor PPI, M2, and Housing Starts for broader macro shifts. These traders align their exposure with long-term shifts in capital flow and inflation expectations, often holding positions for weeks or more. Whatever the style, syncing your trading plan with the data release calendar and macro backdrop can improve timing and conviction. 7. Risk Management The Japanese yen is a globally respected safe-haven currency, and its volatility often spikes during geopolitical stress or liquidity events. Risk must be managed proactively, especially in leveraged futures products. 8. Conclusion Japanese Yen Futures are a favorite among global macro traders because they reflect interest rate divergence, risk sentiment, and global liquidity flows. While headlines grab attention, data tells the real story. Stay tuned for the next installment of the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we continue uncovering what really moves the futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv
Will the BoJ's hawkish approach affect the yen's strength? US equity markets plunged amid growing concerns that the Trump administration's tariffs, set to be announced on April 2, could be aggressively implemented. Goldman Sachs warned that US tariff rates could reach as high as 18%, potentially shaving 1.0% off GDP growth and pushing the unemployment rate to 4.5% this year. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a continued tightening stance, stating that if persistently rising food prices lead to broader inflation, the central bank would consider raising interest rates. USDJPY broke below the support at 149.50 before retracing to 150.00. However, failing to reenter the channel, the price hovers near the channel’s lower bound. If USDJPY fails to reenter the channel, the price may break below 149.50 again. Conversely, if USDJPY reenters the channel, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 151.30.
by inkicho_exness
USDJPY - Critical area for the pair!The USD/JPY pair currently sits at a critical technical juncture, trading around the 149.84 level, where market participants are closely watching for directional cues. The price action has been respecting an ascending trendline since early March, suggesting underlying bullish momentum, while simultaneously testing the lower boundary of a significant resistance zone highlighted in blue on the chart. This confluence creates a decisive moment for traders – a break below the trendline could trigger another downward leg toward support near 149.00, while sustained strength above the current level might signal continuation of the uptrend toward the upper resistance band at 151.00. The chart's annotated projection suggests the possibility of one more pullback before resuming higher, making this a pivotal area for determining whether bears will gain temporary control or if bulls will maintain dominance without further consolidation. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by financialflagship