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USD/JPY overreacts to rate hike signal from BoJ? A huge gap in USD/JPY has appeared to start the week after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about a possible end to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In a Saturday Yomiuri newspaper interview, Governor Ueda mentioned that by the end of the year, the BOJ could accumulate enough data to assess whether the conditions are present to raise interest rates. Ueda comments follow a series of hawkish comments by BOJ officials in recent weeks amid inflationary pressures within Japan. On Monday morning, USD/JPY retreated from its 10-month peak of 147.87. It traded down to 145.89, found resistance just below 147.00, before finding a home around 146.56. Is the market overreacting to Ueda’s comments though? His talk of an exit doesn’t suggest any big changes to monetary policy this year at least, and moving from –0.10% to non-negative rate is symbolically important, but the BoJ (Bank of Japan) rate is still 5 percentage points behind the Fed’s. Knowing this, would you be surprised if the USD/JPY begins its assent again? US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data out this Wednesday could be a catalyst for the pair to target 147.00 again, depending on whether price pressures rise more than expected (currently the consensus is for a rise from the current 3.2% to 3.5%)
by BlackBull_Markets
CHFJPY I Short-term buy and potential move lowerWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2
EURJPY: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: EURJPY Pattern – Range support test post LH trend break. Support – 157.05 – 155.85 Resistance – 158.40 – 159.40 (area) Thanks for checking out today’s update. Today, we have run over the EURJPY, breaking down the overall price picture and levels we are watching. The JPY has started the week on a strong note with solid gains so far to the EUR, GBP and USD. The GBPJPY is also showing similar signs to the EURJPY, but we zoned in as there have been a few price signals in a row that could be backing up a new move by sellers. Sellers continue to test the range bottom after breaking the fast trend and setting up a new lower high around 158.40 resistance. From here, if sellers are going to try a new run, we would like to see a decent to strong close lower that beats the range and 157.05 support base. Then, we will look for a new move lower that could test 155.85 or below. If price can fight back and close back above 157.05, this could be a sign that seller strength might not be that strong. Have a great day and good trading.
Short
by Eightcap
The Yen Bull-Bomb is Ticking!JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze. Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates. Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips. Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed. The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying. I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date. DO look to trade this. BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs. EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
USDJPY H4 | Falling to 38.2% Fibo pullbackUSDJPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially reverse from here to bounce higher towards our take profit target. Entry: 146.559 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 144.537 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level Take Profit: 149.178 Why we like it: There is a resistance level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
✨ NEW: USDJPY ✨ DT SWING✨-SL @ 150.00 🚫 SLO @ 148.90 (conservative) ⏳ SSO @ 147.75 (moderate) ⏳ TP1 @ 142.66 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 139.15 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 136.60 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 132.60 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO @ 129.33 (1D) ⏳ -SL @ 128.25 🚫 ADDITIONAL INFO: 📈 Price Action is nearing our SLO. Just a few more pips to the upside, our SLO will trigger, and it's off to the bank after that. 📉 Let's catch this DT and enjoy the ride because it's gonna be a long one. 📉 Also, I placed a pending SSO, just in case we don't get our SLO filled
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
NZDJPY H4 | Falling to Fibo confluence levelNZDJPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 86.184 which is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the -27.2% expansion and the 100.0% projection levels. Stop loss is at 85.500 which is a level that sits under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a swing-low support. Take profit is at 87.137 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
EUR/JPY: Has it topped?A multi-month bearish divergence has formed on the EUR/JPY daily chart. And whilst the trend remains bullish, it has made harder work of gains in recent months whilst the bearish divergence formed. There's also reason to suspect BOJ members are getting read to increase their verbal warning shits, with one member yesterday remining traders that they are watching currency movements. And with a renowned ECB hawk making a slightly dovish comment, EUR/JPY posed its worst daily gain in five weeks on Thursday. The near bearish engulfing candle (the open was slightly below Wednesday's close), a growing case for a yen reversal and euro top, makes us suspect EUR/JPY is at or very near an inflection point. From here, bears could seek to fade into minor rallies below 160 in anticipation for an initial move lower to 155.50.
Short
by CityIndex
USDJPY H4 | Rising towards swing-high resistanceUSDJPY is rising towards the sell entry at 147.238 which is an swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse from here to drop lower. Stop loss is at 148.600 which is a level that sits above a significant swing-high that took place in November 2022 and the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level. Take profit is between 145.850 and 145.591 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Why USD/JPY bulls should be cautious at these highsUSD/JPY has continued to defy gravity despite the growing threat of verbal (or actual) yen intervention by the MOF/BOJ. Yet the higher and faster it rises, so does the threat of intervention. You can see what impact it had on USD/JPY from the large bearish candle that formed on 23 October 2022, where the initial break above 150 was then met with a swift move lower and subsequent -16.3% decline over the next 2.5 months. However, what has caught our eye today is that recent cycle highs have stalled around the 10 October high, the day a softer-than-expected US inflation report saw the US dollar plunge. There is also a volume node from the choppy price action in October at 147.1, and such HVNs can act as both a magnet to attract prices and also become support/resistance. And given USD/JPY’s recent pattern of breaking key levels and cycle highs before reversing, we’re a little sceptical of bullish breakouts – especially with the growing threat of verbal/actual intervention. Furthermore, the US02Y-JP02Y spread has stalled just beneath its March high, so perhaps USD/JPY is at least due a pullback before it tries to break higher. Either way, we’d prefer to buy dips over breakouts. And as for any potential pullback, we’d prefer to wait for a breakout to become a ‘fakeout’ (where prices move back below the initial breakout level) before shorting against the trend.
by CityIndex
USDJPY: Consolidation & The Next Bullish Move 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY is currently consolidating within a horizontal range. Taking into consideration the fact, that the pair is trading in a long-term bullish trend, probabilities are high that the market will resume the growth soon. Your confirmation will be a bullish breakout - a daily candle close above 146.6 - the upper boundary of the range. A bullish continuation will be expected to 148.0 level then. Alternatively, remember that the price may also drop from the underlined blue resistance and keep consolidating. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
BOJ Intervention Needed as Yen Continues to WeakenAs avid participants in the forex market, we must remain vigilant and proactive in monitoring this situation, as it may have significant implications for our trading strategies and overall market stability. The USDJPY exchange rate has experienced a persistent upward trend in recent weeks, primarily driven by the yen's continuous depreciation. This trend can have far-reaching consequences for global trade, investment flows, and economic stability if left unchecked. It is high time that we collectively address this issue and urge the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene appropriately to restore balance and mitigate the potential risks of such rapid currency fluctuations. The BOJ's intervention is crucial to ensure that market forces do not push the yen into a fragile position, which could lead to unintended consequences. While some currency depreciation can benefit export-oriented economies, an overly weakened yen may spark concerns of competitive devaluation, leading to retaliatory measures and a destabilized international trading environment. Therefore, I implore each of you to monitor the USDJPY exchange rate in the short term closely. Keep a watchful eye for any signs of a potential dip in this currency pair, as it could indicate an opportune moment for the BOJ to step in and stabilize the yen's value. We can collectively contribute to maintaining a balanced and fair forex market by staying informed and alert. Additionally, I encourage you to spread awareness about the importance of BOJ intervention among your fellow traders, colleagues, and industry contacts. Let us unite in our call for action, urging the BOJ to take appropriate measures to address the weakening yen. Together, our voices can carry weight and help safeguard the stability of the forex market. In conclusion, let us remain proactive, concerned, and engaged in monitoring the USDJPY exchange rate. By doing so, we can actively encourage the BOJ to intervene when necessary, ensuring a more stable and predictable forex market for all participants.
by bryandowningqln
14