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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 17, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is down to 149.400 despite the US Dollar (USD) strengthening during Asian trading on Thursday. Later on Thursday, US retail sales data will come to the fore, which is estimated to rise to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in the previous reading. The US economic data showed a resilient economy, with inflation rising slightly more than expected in September. This, in turn, could boost the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (JPY). LSEG calculations put the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November at nearly 100%, while the probability of the Fed pausing and keeping the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.75-5.0% is just 0.2%. Nevertheless, ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election could strengthen safe-haven flows, which would favor the yen. A plan for Israel's response to an Iranian attack this month is ready, CNN reported. U.S. officials expect it to happen before the U.S. presidential election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said separately that Israel opposes a “unilateral ceasefire” in the war with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Friday, investors await national consumer price index (CPI) data for September for a fresh boost. The CPI excluding fresh food is expected to fall to 2.3% in September from 2.8% in August. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 150.000, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
NZD/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounceNZD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 90.23 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 89.70 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 91.27 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
GBP/JPY H4 | Rising into multi-swing-high resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 195.61 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 196.35 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 193.63 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Traders could veer towards the yen with risk events loomingIt is no coincidence that VIX futures have been creeping higher in recent weeks despite Wall Street hitting record highs, as traders are presumably hedging downside risk as we approach the US election. And that means it may not take much to spook traders out of bullish bets with markets at frothy levels, and that could see the yen strengthen as a safety play. Matt Simpson takes a technical look at yen pairs of interest.
Short
by CityIndex
5
JAPANESE YEN INDEXThe Japanese Yen index (JXY) has been on a long term bearish trend. Recent intervention by the BoJ has lifted the Yen. On the weekly charts, the Yen has broken a key level indicating a shift in order flow. Price is expected to push higher to mitigate supply zones. In the short term, we expect the Yen to decline before resuming the bullish move. Consequently, majority of cross Yen pairs will push higher as the Yen index moves lower. Thereafter we expect the Yen to strengthen possibly towards the end of 2024.
TVC:JXYLong
by morrisgitau
USDJPY - 4H Sell SetupFX:USDJPY is displaying a clear technical setup for a bearish move. After a significant pullback following a sharp fall, the pair failed to surpass the resistance zone around 149. This area has proven strong as the price action was unable to hold above it, trapping liquidity just above the resistance. The price then rejected this zone with a sharp reversal. Additionally, the second attempt to break through the resistance further confirms the weakness, as liquidity hunting above the resistance has been met with selling pressure. This rejection, combined with the failed breakout, suggests the pair is likely to fall towards the lower targeted support zone, potentially setting up a strong shorting opportunity in the near term. This aligns with fundamental factors, including expectations of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japan faces a cautious stance on raising interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure. However, recent economic data from Japan, such as rising producer prices and decreased lending activity, suggests a shift may be underway, supporting further yen strength and a potential fall in USDJPY. Traders should watch for a continuation of this move, as the failed attempts to breach resistance and the liquidity grab signal further downside pressure.
Short
by Sober_Trading
2
USD/JPY H4 | Strong bullish uptrendUSD/JPY is trading close to the intersection between an ascending trendline and a pullback support; it could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 149.39 which is a pullback support that intersects with an ascending trendline. Stop loss is at 148.30 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 150.86 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
2
GBP/JPY H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 195.32 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 196.14 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 193.63 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
USD/JPY H4 | Potential RSI Bearish DivergenceUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 149.27 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 151.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 147.17 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY eyes break of 150 and 200-day MA retestThe recovery from 140 has been nothing short of impressive. The daily RSI is confirming the rising prices on the daily chart, and momentum suggests USD/JPY wants to head for the 200-day MA around the 151 handle. There are some concerns that that inflation could pick up due to the hot NFP report, so we may find that pre-emptive bets prompt a break of the August high to bring 150 into focus. Even if prices retrace lower first, dips are preferred and the bias is for an eventual move to 151.
Long
by CityIndex
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4 For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower. A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
CHFJPY in important resistance area; yen to strengthen?CHFJPY in important resistance area on daily chart; yen to strengthen? The Swiss franc and Japanese yen currency pair (CHFJPY) has maintained a steady uptrend on the daily chart since 2020, consistently trading above the 200-period Moving Average. However, in September, CHFJPY dipped below the SMA200 for the first time, signaling a potential increase in selling pressure and indicating a stronger appreciation of the yen against the franc. This yen appreciation aligns with Japan’s recent shift in monetary policy – the Bank of Japan had kept interest rates in negative territory since 2016. On July 31, Japan raised its key interest rate for the second time in 2024, bringing it to 0.25%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has consecutively lowered interest rates during its last three meetings. Technical indicators point to potential downward pressure on CHFJPY From a technical perspective, after breaking below the SMA200 on the daily chart, CHFJPY retested it from below, suggesting that the SMA200 may now act as a level of resistance. The price also reached the 50% retracement level of the bearish Fibonacci on the daily chart, which could serve as potential resistance. A double top pattern is also forming in the same Fibonacci region. From a technical standpoint, a confluence of factors can be seen: 1. The SMA200 was broken, previously acting as support, and could now serve as resistance. 2. A retracement to the 50% level of the bearish Fibonacci, which could also act as resistance. 3. A double top forming on the daily chart. From a macroeconomic perspective, the following is affecting CHFJPY: 1. A shift in Japan’s monetary policy with two interest rate hikes this year. 2. Monetary easing in Switzerland – the SNB has cut the policy rate three times in 2024. It currently stands at 1% – the lowest level since early 2023. These factors create a context where a potential short opportunity could become more apparent if the price breaks below 171.30. If that occurs, CHFJPY could decline to the 167.10 level within a few days, where it may encounter some support. Disclaimer: 76.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
6j Yen Short SwingsI have been watching the Yen carefully since July. This upswing has provided a healthy reset but current price action represents the tide turning back to the short side which fundamentally supports Japans struggle to maintain currency value. The risk/reward makes sense to me and I'm actively watching for swing shorts with .006700 target. The daily chart is presenting a great entry point as old support now becomes resistance. I'll post the entry if/when it's made. Timeline is before November (US Elections)
CME:6J1!Short
by GrayTrader01
USDJPY still has more downside on daily & weekly tfStructurally I'm looking for rejection at 147-149.8 range. Look for renewed selling action below 144 to confirm. Still seeing additional unwinding of the yen carry trade as highly likely over subsequent days & weeks. Targeting 136, 131, and 126 handles on weekly structure as we approach Q1 of 2025. Particularly as the US Federal Reserve is pressured to cut rates further with recent data. Entering short positions gradually but the majority is already in place.
by DaveTradesLive