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USDJPY Mid-Term Bearish Expectation/Analysis The explanation for this analysis is in the text on the chart This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy, which includes the: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC PD: excuse my poor english
CME:6J1!Short
by SmartMoneySource
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
6
Bulls circle USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC meetingWhilst the US dollar has mostly retraced over the past couple of weeks against FX majors, it has held its own against then Yen. In fact, momentum is now turning higher after forming a triple bottom ~139 and breaking above a retracement line. The most traded price during the prior consolidation is 139.55, which could provide a level of support if prices retrace ahead of its next leg higher. Take note that overnight implied volatility has blown out ahead of the FOMC, so be prepared for some volatility before the next major move takes place.
Long
by CityIndex
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Yen Can Secure Capital Inflows BNP continues to expect a strong recovery for the yen. Firstly, it expects that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy in July which will tend to strengthen the currency, especially given scope for a repatriation of funds by domestic institutions. It also expects lower US yields will support the yen while the threat of intervention will tend to curb potential selling pressure on the currency. The dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is not forecast to hold above the 140.00 level.
Short
by thunderpips
3
🔥 MODIFICATION: NZDJPY 🔥 SWING TRADE 🔥Our technical analysis of NZDJPY is still in play. The pair has been in a downtrend for the past few months and has recently reached a Supply Zone (SZ) at 86.60 on the 15-hour chart. This SZ suggests that there is strong selling pressure at this level, and it is likely that the pair will continue to decline. The next resistance level is at 86.80, and if this level is respected, then we have a huge opportunity to capitalize on this downside pressure. Resistance @ 86.80 Supply Zone @ 86.60 SSO2 @ 86.15 📉 SSO1 @ 85.15 📉 TP1 @ 84.35 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 83.66 (shaving 50%) TP3 @ 82.33 (closing ALL Sell Orders) BLO1 @ 82.00 BLO2 @ 81.25 -SL @ 80.85 🚫
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
1
USDJPY FOMC Prep 14th JuneIf the FOMC does pause on further rate hikes as forecasted, this is likely to cause further weakness in the DXY (read DXY analysis) Weakness in the DXY could see the USDJPY trade lower. The USDJPY has been range bound since the start of June, trading between the resistance of 140.40 and support of 138.74. Currently trading along the 140 price level, weakness in the DXY could see the price reverse lower, back down to the support level. Similar to the price action on the 5th of June. A surprise rate hike from the FOMC could see the USDJPY rise, but the upside would be limited with the next key resistance level around 141 (the previous swing high at the end of May) and also with the increasing belief that any surprise rate hike would be the last to come from the FOMC.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Here is my detailed structure analysis for USDJPY. Horizontal Key Levels. Resistance 1: 140.63 - 140.93 area Resistance 2: 142.06 - 142.46 area Support 1: 138.48 - 138.80 area Support 2: 137.38 - 137.95 area Support 3: 135.20 - 135.49 area Support 4: 132.95 - 134.27 area Vertical Key Levels. Vertical Resistance 1: Rising trend line Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading this week. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
10
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG Japanese Yen: Long-Term Pressure for Yen Gains As far as the yen is concerned, the Bank of Japan has continued to resist policy tightening, but MUFG suspects that the position could change very quickly. It notes; “We suspect the BoJ could pivot quickly and alter YCC without much warning.” The bank also expects that the underlying inflation profile has increased which could have important implications for the central bank and yen. It adds; “The sense that this time could be different is certainly building in Japan.” An eventual policy shift is expected to boost the heavily-undervalued yen.
Short
by thunderpips
USDJPY approaches key decisive area The USDJPY has been trading strongly to the upside since early May with no significant corrective move to the downside. Now, with the 50MA again crossing below the 200MA and price action showing bearish momentum, look for the USDJPY to break below the 138.75 support level formed last Friday. Along with a downward movement on the RSI, if the USDJPY breaks below 138.75, the price could fall toward the next support level of 137.50. Although there is another key support level at 135.55, this might be too low as a possible target level.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
EURJPY H4 - Short SetupEURJPY H4 Trading on and around that huge 150.000 psychological number at the moment. Price hopefully looking to reject this area on the LTF to give us a signal that bears may come back into play. The likes of GBPJPY also looking attractive for possible shorts, but not a huge amount of volume being seen over the last couple of weeks. But this week could be the week we start to see the JPY gain strength in line with recent consolidation and exhaustion.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
1