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USD/JPY REMAINS HEAVILY BEARISH,LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 10For the third consecutive day, USD/JPY is experiencing heavy selling pressure, pushing the pair lower. The anticipation of a hawkish shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is increasing demand for the Japanese Yen, thus contributing to the downward trend. However, some follow-through USD buying may offer some support to the pair, helping to limit further losses. During the first half of the European session on Friday, the USD/JPY pair extended its rejection slide from the 133.00 level earlier this week, and the spot prices dropped to their lowest point since February 10th. The bears are now looking to push the pair further below the psychological level of 130.00. Japan's consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since 1982 in February, and the Japanese Yen strengthened across the board in response to the domestic data. Specifically, Japan's core-core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices but includes alcoholic beverages, accelerated to 3.5% YoY, marking the fastest increase in 41 years. This has increased the likelihood of the Bank of Japan adjusting its bond yield control policy in the near future, which would benefit the domestic currency and continue to push the USD/JPY pair lower. Bearish traders have also taken cues from a further decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decrease in yields is led by the Federal Reserve signaling that it may soon pause its rate-hiking cycle due to the recent banking sector turmoil. As a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond and the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note are hovering near a six-month low reached earlier this week. This further narrows the US-Japan rate differential, which is another factor driving flows towards the JPY and contributing to the heavily offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
USDJPY Outlook 24th March 2023The USDJPY continues to trade lower, as the price maintains within the bearish channel. Following the weakness of the DXY from the FOMC decision, the USDJPY reversed strongly from the 133 price level to trade down to the current price level and key support level of 130. If the DXY continues to weaken, look for the USDJPY to break below the immediate support level of 130 to trade down to the next support level of 128, which aligns with the lower bound of the bearish channel. However, as prices reach toward levels last tested in February, anticipate significant choppy price action
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY Fundamental Analysis | 03/23/23On Thursday, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline as the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.17% to close at 27,420 points, and the broader Topix Index dropped by 0.29% to 1,957 points. This reversal was due to Wall Street's negative trend, following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there will not be any rate cuts this year, and if needed, rates may rise higher than expected. This decision affected financial stocks as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed lawmakers that the US government was not planning to provide a "blanket insurance" for bank deposits. Moreover, Japanese manufacturers remained pessimistic for the third consecutive month in March due to concerns about slowing global growth, which could affect the country's export-heavy industries. As a result, financial, healthcare, and technology stocks experienced losses, with Mitsubishi UFJ (-1.4%), Takeda Pharmaceutical (-2.6%), and Keyence (-1.6%) being among the hardest hit. The Japanese yen strengthened to 131 per dollar, the highest in 5 weeks following the US Federal Reserve's rate hike decision. During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell explained that the pause in hiking rates was to address the banking crises. On the domestic front, the Bank of Japan's minutes from its January meeting indicated that members reiterated the need to maintain ultra-easy policies to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. In this regard, the BOJ left its policy of ultra-low interest rates unchanged this month at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before his retirement. Looking ahead, Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expect the Japanese Stock Market Index to trade at 27,279.95 points by the end of this quarter and 24,842.68 in 12 months time. Additionally, the Japanese Yen is expected to trade at 137.83 by the end of this quarter and 146.74 in 12 months time.
Short
by TayFx
The story of a hawk and a dove in GBPJPYHey everyone. Welcome back to another forecast, this time on GBPJPY. This will be for the future outlook of GJ and where it can possibly head to. BOE hiked rates by 50 bps in its previous monetary meeting and market has priced in a 25bps rate hike in today's monetary policy meeting of March. However, the story of the hawk does not end here as its latest CPI y/y printed whopping 10.4% compared to a 9.9% forecasted. This really shows the stubbornness of the inflation that the POUND is facing. This makes their upcoming meeting a complicated one and the market could potentially price in a 50bps hike instead. This paves the way for more rate hikes if inflation were to remain sticky and stubborn. A hawk remains a hawk to come for the coming months. On the other side of the universe, BOJ has remained through to their stance and stuck by with a -0.1% short term interest rates and for 10 year bond yields at 0% during its month of March. It remains steadfast in its approach and the interest rate differential between POUND and YEN cannot be missed. JPY's inflation has however been rising at a steady rate, with the latest printing at 4.3%, yet it's widely expected that the BOJ remains dovish , especially after the multiple opportunities to hike rates but deciding against them. In my opinion, the story of the hawk and the dove continues to be the case for the upcoming weeks in GBPJPY and that is one of the reasons I believe that GJ is a bull story. On a technical front, I believe price can continue up to create a newer high and flirt the highs at 165. The BOE's monetary policy will be key to seeing if the hawk shall continue flying well above the dove. Long story short, GBPJPY bulls . Let's see.
Long
by Jon_Jones_Junior
GBPJPY Potential Forecast | 23rd March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. GBP inflation came out strong and paves way for more hawkishness from the BOE and rate hikes. 2. JPY continues to be the dove. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently on a higher timeframe bullish trend 2. Price could tap on the H4 resistance above (red zone) 3. Price have cleared the previous daily low Idea Looking for the price to head towards the H4 resistance at 166.04. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
AUDJPY - a key barometer of risk - is holding above key supportDespite the turbulence across global assets these past two weeks, AUD/JPY is opting to hold above key support and resistance levels including the 2022 low and 2021 high. Investors remain on edge as they cannot be sure that the worst is behind us, and there is a risk that another bank will 'break' under the pressure of higher rates, bad management and / or face another bank run. But what if none of this materialises? Or the Fed is not as dovish as market pricing currently implies. Perhaps the real risk is that it's not that risky, and that could leave room for an upside surprise. Even if AUD/JPY does break below 87.00, we'd prefer to see a break beneath the 2021 high of 86.26 before calling a major top on the weekly charts. The fly in the ointment is the FOMC meeting, because if they're not as dovish as hoped it could pressure risk assets such as indices and AUD/JPY. Yet a dovish meeting could support sentiment and send it higher. Either way, it is worth watching AUD/JPY around current levels as it could help signal the next likely directional move for risk assets in general.
by CityIndex
AUDJPY: Reversal pattern on 4-hour chartOn the daily chart, the AUD/JPY pair is in a strong support area, where the yearly trendline intersects with the monthly uptrend line and a monthly zone, in addition to a bearish weekly trendline, Fibonacci 61.8%, and the 100-week moving average. This indicates a high likelihood of strong price support at the level of 87.6. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, there are three consecutive bottoms and divergence on momentum indicators, which is a strong reversal pattern. The price needs to break through three obstacles, including a local downtrend line, a resistance level of 89.5, and the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour timeframe, before it can rise. Once these obstacles are overcome and the price stabilizes above 89.55, there will be a strong and rapid selling signal towards 91.5 as the first target and 92.8 as the second target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
Long
by Candlestick_OB
USDJPY Outlook 20th March 2023Similar to the price action on Gold, as uncertainty in the market grows and confidence over the banking structure weakens, investors are seen shifting towards reserve commodity and currencies. This is why the Yen has strengthened, together with the weakening of the DXY, leading to the USDJPY being pressured to trade steadily lower. The USDJPY currently trading at the 132 price level could see further downside - if the price maintains below the bearish trendline, and - if the price breaks below the 131.50 support level. Downside potential could see the USDJPY reach the 129.80 support level which was last tested in February. Alternatively, if the USDJPY bounces strongly from the 131.50 support level, the immediate resistance level is at 133.75 which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (with an interim resistance level at 132.60)
Short
by JinDao_Tai
5
GBPJPYGBPJPY has been examined in different dimensions: 1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system. 2- The structure of recently formed waves 3- Current market momentum 4- The structure of classical and price patterns In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis. In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
Long
by HamidRamezani1992
CADJPYGood Night :) GBPAUD has been examined in different dimensions: 1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system. 2- The structure of recently formed waves 3- Current market momentum 4- The structure of classical and price patterns In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis. In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
Short
by HamidRamezani1992
Trend continuation to 140Price is likely to continue moving in channel, as it reversed at 130 with gap breakout from downtrend. Next target is 140. Here we are using dynamic moving average support called VIDYA (Variable Dynamic Index) by Chande Tushar of 7 periods from daily, weekly and monthly, of the opens. Weekly candle closed above 135, another indication it will continue higher in the trend. Most of retailers on myxbook outlook for Yen are posititoned short, we use contrarian approach. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
Long
by ICFX
Multi-Currency Fundamental Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23US stock futures declined on Wednesday by about 0.1% after the previous day's market rally, in which all three major indexes finished higher. Dow rose by 1.06%, S&P 500 jumped by 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 2.14%. The banking sector staged a comeback rally as investors shrugged off fears of a systemic risk. Investors look forward to retail sales and producer price index data on Wednesday, as well as earnings reports from Adobe, Five Below and Oatly, among others. Inflation slowed to 6% in February of 2023, in line with market forecasts, the lowest since September 2021, and compared to 6.4% in January. The Bank of England is expected to increase rates by another 25 basis points this month, marking the 11th consecutive rate hike. The British pound remained above its over three-month low of $1.18 touched on March 8th, holding around $1.21, its strongest level since February 21st. Investors await British finance minister Hunt's new budget due Wednesday. The growth in pay in Britain eased in the three months to January. Total pay grew by an annual 5.7%, slowing from 6.0% in the previous period, while pay excluding bonuses rose by 6.5%, down from 6.7%. The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.9 per dollar, recovering further from two-month lows on positive signs for policy continuity. The current central bank governor and finance and commerce ministers are set to keep their posts, which boosted the currency. China's inflation rate fell to a one-year low in February, and producer prices also declined for the fifth straight month in February. The People's Bank of China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight meeting, as widely expected. In regular trading on Tuesday, the Dow gained 1.06%, the S&P 500 jumped 1.65% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 2.14%, with all 11 S&P sectors finishing higher led by communication services, technology and financials. Investors were betting that the worst of the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had passed. The market also digested data showing US annual inflation slowed further to 6% in February, in line with expectations. Investors now look ahead to retail sales and producer price index data on Wednesday, as well as earnings reports from Adobe, Five Below and Oatly, among others. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 6% in February of 2023, the lowest since September of 2021, in line with market forecasts, and compared to 6.4% in January. Food prices grew at a slower rate (9.5% vs 10.1%) while the cost of used cars and trucks continued to decline (-13.6% vs -11.6%). Also, costs slowed sharply for energy (5.2% vs 8.7%) and fuel oil (9.2% vs 27.7%) with gasoline prices falling 2% after a 1.5% rise in January. On the other hand, prices rose faster for electricity (12.9% vs 11.9%) and shelter (8.1% vs 7.9%). Core inflation which strips out the cost of food and energy edged lower to 5.5% from 5.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.4%, following a prior 0.5% gain and also matching forecasts. The core rate, however, edged higher to 0.5% from 0.4%, compared to forecasts of 0.4%. Inflation in the US remains three times above the Fed's target of 2%. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The euro extended gains to trade above $1.07, hovering around its strongest level since February 14th, and up from a two-month low of $1.05 touched on March 8th. Global markets were hit by concerns over the US financial system despite US authorities' latest efforts to limit the fallout from the collapse of SVB , raising the chances that the Federal Reserve might take a more cautious approach and deliver a 25 basis point hike at the March meeting, instead of a 50 basis point hike previously expected. Meanwhile, investors await the European Central Bank's policy statement due on Thursday, with policymakers expected to raise interest rates by another 50 bps . Still, the bloc's central bank might adopt a more dovish tone due to the ongoing risks to financial stability. The dollar index traded around 103.5 on Wednesday, hovering near its weakest levels in a month as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy in light of the recent turmoil in the US banking sector and the latest US inflation report. The greenback came under heavy selling pressure this week as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank fueled speculations that the Fed could pause its tightening campaign to avoid further risks to the financial system. Fresh data also showed that the annual inflation rate in the US slowed further to 6% in February, the lowest since September 2021, in line with expectations. Money markets are now pricing an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week, lower than the half-percentage point increase expected a week ago. The British pound held above $1.21, hovering around its strongest level since February 21st and remaining above an over three-month low of $1.18 touched on March 8th. Investors dumped the dollar on hopes the Federal Reserve might take less aggressive approach on monetary policy going forward after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank put into question the strength of the US banking system. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is seen increasing rates by a further 25 bps this month, an 11th consecutive rate hike, before ending the current tightening cycle. On the data front, growth in pay in Britain, which the UK central bank is watching closely as it weighs up when to pause its run of interest rate hikes, eased in the three months to January. Total pay grew by an annual 5.7%, slowing from 6.0% in the previous period, while pay excluding bonuses rose by 6.5%, down from 6.7%. Investors now await British finance minister Hunt's new budget due Wednesday. The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.9 per dollar, recovering further from two-month lows on positive signs for policy continuity, with the current central bank governor and finance and commerce ministers set to keep their posts. The yuan also gained as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank prompted US regulators to protect depositors and financial institutions, giving rise to speculations that the US Federal Reserve could take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening to avoid further risks to the financial system. Meanwhile, latest data showed that China’s inflation rate fell to a one-year low in February, bolstering bets that the central bank would maintain an accommodative stance. Producer prices also declined for the fifth straight month in February. Last month, the People's Bank of China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth straight meeting, as widely expected. The Swiss franc strengthened past 0.92 per USD, approaching the 18-month high of 0.9 touched on February 1st as fears surrounding the US financial sector pressured the dollar and erased expectations of sharp rate increases by the Federal Reserve . On the other hand, the hawkish outlook for the Swiss National Bank supported the local currency as policymakers continued to flag risks of elevated inflation due to the second-round effects of high energy prices. Domestic inflation jumped to 3.4% in February, well above the SNB's forecasts of 3% and market expectations of 3.1%, adding to bets that the central body will continue its rate-hiking path next week. Additionally, recent data showed that foreign exchange reserves at the SNB fell to CHF 770.6 billion in February, the lowest since 2019, suggesting the SNB was intervening in currency markets to support the franc. The Indian rupee depreciated past 82.25 per USD from the one-month high of 81.7 touched on March 3rd, weakening despite the sharp retreat in the DXY as strong import demand weighed on the local currency. The volatility of the greenback suggested that Indian investors also exited their short dollar positions, increasing selling pressure on the rupee. Still, concerns about higher inflation strengthened hawkish bets for the Reserve Bank of India. Retail prices rose by 6.44% annually in February, above expectations of 6.35%, and marking it the second month inflation surpassed the central bank’s upper target of 6%. Economists project the lender to raise its key rate by 25bps in the upcoming April meeting, prolonging the effort to curb elevated retail prices and erasing previous expectations that Indian borrowing costs could peak by the first quarter of 2023. The British pound held above $1.21, hovering around its strongest level since February 21st and remaining above an over three-month low of $1.18 touched on March 8th. Investors dumped the dollar on hopes the Federal Reserve might take less aggressive approach on monetary policy going forward after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank put into question the strength of the US banking system. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is seen increasing rates by a further 25 bps this month, an 11th consecutive rate hike, before ending the current tightening cycle. On the data front, growth in pay in Britain, which the UK central bank is watching closely as it weighs up when to pause its run of interest rate hikes, eased in the three months to January. Total pay grew by an annual 5.7%, slowing from 6.0% in the previous period, while pay excluding bonuses rose by 6.5%, down from 6.7%. Investors now await British finance minister Hunt's new budget due Wednesday. The Turkish lira held at a record low of 18.9 per USD after the central bank of Turkey resumed rate cuts. The TCMB cut its main interest rate by 50bps to 8.5% in its February meeting, matching market expectations. It was the first rate decrease since November, aiming to further loosen financial conditions and stimulate the recovery of supply chains after the earthquake hit the country. The central bank has cut its key rate by 10.5 percentage points since September 2021, triggering a crisis for the lira, soaring inflation , and a largely unbalanced current account. Inflation in Turkey soared to 86% in October before easing back to 58% in January, as the lira plunged 55% since the start of the bank's loosening cycle and compounded surging energy costs that Turkey must import. The TCMB also extended anti-dollarization strategies to support the currency. The Russian ruble was steady at around 75 per USD in March, hovering close to its lowest since April 2022 amid limited foreign currency inflows to the national economy. Sanctions and embargos on the country's energy exports compounded the impact of lower international energy prices, reducing turnover for Russia's vital revenue source and limiting demand for the local currency. Data from the Finance Ministry showed that oil and gas revenues sank by 46.4% from the prior year. Lower energy sales hurt the ruble despite intervention by the CBR , which has been selling an average of RUB 8.9 billion worth of foreign currency per day since January to offset depressed capital inflows. Meanwhile, until April 6th, the Finance Ministry will be selling RUB 120 billion in foreign currency, as increased demand from China and India is expected to boost energy shipments. The Brazilian real was changing hands around $5.15, a dramatic reversal from an eight-month peak of $4.95 touched on February 2nd, as stronger-than-expected US economic data fanned concerns about an aggressive Federal Reserve , thus spurring demand for the dollar. However, the downside move has been limited by speculation that the Bank of Brazil would hold interest rates higher for longer. Officials kept the benchmark Selic at 13.75% for the fourth straight meeting in February, as projected, but struck a somewhat hawkish tone due to worries over rising inflation expectations. Policymakers and investors have been concerned about Brazil's fiscal policy since President Lula da Silva took office earlier this year. Lula has constantly hinted at the need to boost social programs and loosen inflation targets.
U
by TayFx