GBP/JPY H4 | Falling to pullback supportGBP/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 200.98 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 199.89 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 202.70 which is a pullback resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Yen
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 51 - JPYTHB - (25th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing JPYTHB, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
USDJPY - Bearish => Bullish => Bearish?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 As per my last two analysis (attached on the chart), USDJPY rejected the $160 resistance and traded lower, then rejected the lower trendlines and traded higher.
What's next?
USDJPY has been trading within a medium-term rising channel marked in orange. And currently, it is hovering around the upper bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting the $160 resistance level again.
🏹 Thus, it is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Retail Traders Poised for Yen Rebound - Consider Shorting USDJPYI am writing to bring to your immediate attention a critical development in the forex market that could present a significant trading opportunity.
As many of you are aware, the recent slide in the Japanese yen has been a point of concern. This depreciation has heightened the probability of Japan intervening in the market once more to stabilize its currency. Historical patterns suggest that such interventions can lead to rapid and substantial movements in the yen's value.
Currently, it appears that retail traders are reloading their bets in anticipation of a rebound in the yen. This collective action underscores a growing sentiment that the yen is poised for a recovery, potentially driven by governmental measures to curb its decline.
Given these circumstances, it may be prudent to consider positioning yourselves for this anticipated rebound. Specifically, shorting the USD/JPY could be a strategic move. By doing so, you could potentially capitalize on the yen's resurgence if Japan steps in to support its currency.
I urge you to review your portfolios and assess the potential benefits of shorting USD/JPY in light of the current market dynamics. As always, ensure that any trading decisions are made with careful consideration and risk management.
Stay vigilant and informed. The forex market is highly dynamic, and timely actions can make a significant difference.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 50 - EURJPY - (21st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
USD/JPY continues to struggle ~158Over the past three days we have seen two false breaks above 158, both resulting with a daily shooting star reversal. The upper wicks also serve as a double top above 158, and with US economic data slowly souring, the case for a top on USD/JPY is building.
Prices have found support around the May high, and another crack at 158 would not come as a surprise. Yet given that the daily RSI (2) is overbought and has formed a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, and the highest volume of yesterday coincided with a large bearish bar, the bias remains to fade into rallies around 158 or Friday's high in anticipation of its next leg lower.
157.30, 157 and 156.60 are the next downside targets for bears to consider.
Levels discussed during livestream 14th June14th June
DXY: test resistance area of 105.60-105.70. (could retrace briefly due to end of week) Breaking resistance could trade up to 106.40
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6130 SL 20 TP 50 (Hesitation at 0.61)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 25 TP 70
USDJPY: Buy 158.40 SL 50 TP 100
GBPUSD: Wait for reaction at 1.2690
EURUSD: Sell 1.0705 SL 30 TP 90 (Hesitation at 1.0670)
USDCHF: No setup for now
USDCAD: Sell 1.3770 SL 30 TP 85
Gold: Likely to range between 2340 and 2290
The yen continues to weaken as BoJ keeps rates unchangedThe BoJ came out this morning saying they will keep the rates unchanged. The market took that as a negative and we are seeing weakness in the yen across the board against all its major counterparts. Also, the weakness of the Japanese currency might continue, as long as indices are rising.
#usdjpy EASYMARKETS:USDJPY
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the USDJPY retest 160?When the BoJ increased interest rates in March, for the first time in 17 years, the Yen continued to weaken due to the perceived lack of commitment toward further rate hikes.
In April the BoJ kept rates on hold at 0.10%, which saw the Yen react with further weakness.
The BoJ is due to release its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow (Friday).
With the USDJPY currently at the 157.25 price level, a resumption of strength on the DXY following the FOMC decision yesterday could see the USDJPY climb up to the resistance level of 158 before the BoJ decision.
If the BoJ decides to keep rates on hold and not take any further action on reducing its bond purchases, the Yen could weaken further, pushing the USDJPY higher toward the all time high of 160.
This is likely to make it very interesting as it would reignite the speculation of a possible currency intervention from the BoJ
Volatility strikes USD/JPY within rangeThe whipsaws for the US dollar around US CPI and the FOMC meeting made its mark on USD/JPY, which closed the day with a large hanging man candle beneath the May high. Markets are still deciding whether to pay closer attention to softer inflation data or the Fed's relatively hawkish meeting, and that likely means confusing price action on USD pairs.
The 1-hour chart shows strong volume accompanying the rally from Wednesday's low, which suggests another crack at breaking above the week's high. But with plenty of resistance overhead, bears may be tempted to fade into rallies on hopes of driving the pair back to the range lows around 155.
Japan rate decision Friday: A deeper look Japan's wholesale inflation surged in May at the fastest annual rate in nine months, data revealed yesterday, indicating that a weak yen may be exerting upward pressure on prices by increasing the cost of raw material imports. Producer prices in Japan rose 2.4% year-on-year in May 2024, up from 1.1% in April, surpassing market expectations of a 2% rise.
This data is likely to be a key factor for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board as it convenes for a two-day policy meeting ending on Friday. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its short-term interest rate target within the 0% to 0.1% range.
However, the data adds complexity to the BOJ's decision-making on the timing of interest rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated that the central bank will consider raising rates further if it becomes more confident that underlying inflation will remain around the 2% target.
Looking at the 4-hour chart today, the USD/JPY has rebounded following the FOMC decision, erasing much of the post-CPI drop, and passing through the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-hour Exponential Moving Averages.
GBP/JPY H4 | Falling to swing-low supportGBP/JPY is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 197.72 which is a swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 197.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 200.74 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ).
In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being.
The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include:
Japan GDP Growth Rate (final)
Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook
Japan Producer Price Inflation
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum.
On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair.
The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
EUR/JPY looks ready to ripThe ECB are expected to cut their benchmark rate for the first time in 8 years in a few hours. Yet as it has been so well telegraphed and they seem unlikely to provide promise of further cuts just yet, we suspect upside potential for euro pairs once the dust has settled. And with Wall Street at new highs and appetite for risk on the rise, EUR/JPY looks good for long setups.
A bullish inside day formed on Wednesday, and whilst it met resistance at the 2008 high it has since found support at the 20-day EMA. The daily chart shows prices holding above the daily pivot point, and a bullish engulfing candle has formed with a bullish RSI divergence. A bullish flag also appears to be forming.
The bias remains bullish above 169, although the 20-day EMA or cycle lows can be used to aid with risk management if momentum turns higher. A break above 170 brings the daily R2 / 61.8% projection into focus, and the flag suggests a target just above the 170.72 highs.
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 11 - SGDJPY - (1st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing SGDJPY, starting from the 6-Month chart.
- R2F
GBPJPY Pullback predictionThe trend has always been bullish because YEN is weak asf and BoJ are not doing anything yet to contain the damage. Though this month buyers were unable to break last month high of [200} area which is a multi-decade high. A breach past 201 means more damage for JPY and it will head to 205, 210. A nice push below 199 means a short term pullback towards this month's low area. This move is likely to happen from beginning next month probably on monday. I will be waiting to sell with a tight stop loss above 200.500.
Consolidation zone 190-193 still has to be revisited I think
Let me know what you think on GBPJPY
USDJPY Short time bearishFor years now Yen has been weak and USDJPY Rose 11% in the last 5 months meaning the trend is bullish . FX:USDJPY Peaked at 160 area last month then we saw some selling pressure which drove the rate to 152 zone {Last year high}
Price rejection since this month open from 158 means we have some selling pressure, Today after US GDP QoQ2 release USDJPY Dropped 900 points too. I would wait to get a favorable long entry points.
Areas of focus 155, 152, lowest 150. Below that the bias turns bearish mid term.
USDJPY WEEKLY OUTLOOK### Weekly Market Outlook
Monday: The week begins quietly with a U.S. bank holiday in observance of Memorial Day, leading to subdued financial markets.
Tuesday: Focus shifts to Japan for the release of the BoJ core CPI y/y. In the United States, the CB Consumer Confidence data will be closely monitored.
Wednesday: Key inflation data from Australia will be released, offering insights into the RBA's upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Thursday: A series of significant U.S. economic indicators will be published, including preliminary GDP q/q figures, unemployment claims, and pending home sales. These data points are crucial for understanding the U.S. economic trajectory.
Friday: The week concludes with several important releases. Japan will report its Tokyo core CPI y/y and industrial production data. The eurozone will release its CPI figures, the final print before the next ECB meeting. In the United States, the core PCE price index m/m, personal income m/m, and personal spending m/m data will be released, providing a comprehensive view of recent consumer activity.
Throughout the week, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak, potentially offering insights into future monetary policy. Additionally, Barclays suggests that month-end rebalancing might signal strong dollar selling, a factor to consider in trading decisions.
In the U.S., CB Consumer Confidence is expected to decline from 97.0 to 96.1. Analysts at Wells Fargo highlight a discrepancy: consumer spending has recently increased, while consumer confidence has declined since the beginning of the year, reaching its lowest level since 2022. This decline in confidence may stem from persistent concerns about rising prices, despite a drop in inflation from its peak. Additionally, a slight rise in unemployment has contributed to a less optimistic economic outlook.
Technical Analysis:
The price continues to experience bullish pressure towards 157.970, with a potential further rise to 159.820 upon breaking this level.
A correction to 156.590 is possible before resuming the bullish trend. The bearish scenario will be triggered if the support line at 156.590 is broken, potentially leading to a drop to 155.940 and 155.445
Pivot line: 156.590
Resistance line: 157.970, 159.82, 161.820
Support line: 155.950, 155.450, 154.700
The expected trading range is between support 155.450 and Resistance 157.970
previous weekly idea:
GBPJPY near the current highest point of this year#GBPJPY EASYMARKETS:GBPJPY
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
sell 154.92 and tp 152.10 with stop loss at 156.2..rr 2.5i sell it coz even when dollars down he not down and so many ti_me BOj talk about to intervene.
i think they will do soon and if not a big pullback have to happens
u can put ur stop lost at 155.6 if u want a bertter RR but i scare about a big leg up
GBPJPY - Over-Bought Zone 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 GBPJPY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel in blue.
At present, GBPJPY is approaching the upper bound of the channel acting as an over-bought zone.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong round number $200.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green zone and upper blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GBPJPY approaches the circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich