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Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD is STRONG Vs CAD, CHF, & JPYThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 4 - 8th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: CAD, CHF, & JPY future, and USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
Weekly FOREX Forecast Oct. 28: USDJPY Is a BUY This Week! The JPY has been weak and will continue to trend downward. The USD is supported by favoring fundamentals, and will likely continue its current bullish leg. Patience will pay you this week. Wait for valid buy setups. Sells are countertrend and lower probability, imo. Buy USDJPY. Sell JPY Futures. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
What October 25th's Options Portfolio Tells Us About the YenOur analysis of options portfolios from October 25th revealed a Straddle setup on the Japanese yen futures, with a short expiration date set for November 1, 2024. Now, this isn’t exactly a rare sight for the yen; these Straddle portfolios pop up pretty regularly, especially when we’re looking at short expiration periods. From what we've seen, in about 4 out of 5 cases, the quotes tend to hang around the Straddle boundaries and often bounce off them. A recent example? August 5th—prices hit the upper limit at 149.20 (that’s the spot quote) and then bounced back nicely, giving savvy traders a sweet opportunity to jump into a short position on the dollar with a solid risk/reward ratio. So, what's the takeaway here? Use those Straddle boundaries to open positions in the spot/forex market. It makes sense to trade in the direction of the main trend, which means looking for a drop in the yen against the dollar when prices hit that upper boundary—check out #1 for a visual. Now, I can hear the skeptics asking: what's the rationale behind these price movements at the Straddle boundaries? After all, a Straddle is just a straightforward strategy that involves buying volatility and betting on price movement. True, that’s the textbook definition, but it’s just scratching the surface. The real insights and "battle-tested applications" of this strategy are way more intricate than they seem. Stay tuned for our updates, and you’ll definitely uncover the hidden meanings and value of options analysis for the everyday forex trader. Trust me, these insights can give you a real edge in the market. It’s worth your time and effort!
CME:6JZ2024
by ClashChartsTeam
Options Blueprint Series: Tailoring Yen Futures Delta ExposureIntroduction In options trading, a Bull Call Spread is a popular strategy used to capitalize on price increases in the underlying asset. This strategy involves buying a call option at a lower strike price while simultaneously selling another call option at a higher strike price. The net effect is a debit trade, meaning the trader pays for the spread, but the risk is limited to this initial cost, and the profit potential is capped by the sold call option's strike price. For traders interested in Japanese Yen Futures, the Bull Call Spread offers a way to potentially profit from expected upward movements while managing risk effectively. Delta exposure, which measures the sensitivity of an option's price to changes in the price of the underlying asset, is a crucial aspect of this strategy. By carefully selecting the strike prices of the options involved, traders can tailor their delta exposure to match their market outlook and risk tolerance. In this article, we will delve into the mechanics of Bull Call Spreads, explore how varying the sold unit's strike price impacts delta exposure, and present a practical case study using Japanese Yen Futures to illustrate these concepts. Mechanics of Bull Call Spreads A Bull Call Spread is typically constructed by purchasing an at-the-money (ATM) call option and selling an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option. This strategy is designed to take advantage of a moderate rise in the price of the underlying asset, in this case, Japanese Yen Futures. Components of a Bull Call Spread: Buying the ATM Call Option: This option is purchased at a strike price close to the current price of the underlying asset. The ATM call option has a higher delta, meaning its price is more sensitive to changes in the price of the underlying asset. Selling the OTM Call Option: This option is sold at a higher strike price. The OTM call option has a lower delta, reducing the overall cost of the spread but also capping the profit potential. Delta in Options Trading: Delta represents the rate of change in an option's price concerning a one-unit change in the price of the underlying asset. For call options, delta ranges from 0 to 1: ATM Call Option: Typically has a delta around 0.5, meaning if the underlying asset's price increases by one unit, the call option's price is expected to increase by 0.5 units. OTM Call Option: Has a lower delta, typically less than 0.5, indicating less sensitivity to changes in the price of the underlying asset. By combining these two options, traders can create a position with a desired delta exposure, managing both risk and potential reward. The selection of strike prices is crucial as it determines the overall delta exposure of the Bull Call Spread. Impact of Strike Price on Delta Exposure Delta exposure in a Bull Call Spread is a crucial factor in determining the overall sensitivity of the position to changes in the price of the underlying asset. By adjusting the strike price of the sold call option, traders can fine-tune their delta exposure to align with their market expectations and risk management preferences. How Delta Exposure Works: Higher Strike Price for the Sold Call Option: When the strike price of the sold call option is higher, the overall delta exposure of the Bull Call Spread increases. This is because the sold option has a lower delta, contributing less to offsetting the delta of the purchased call option. Lower Strike Price for the Sold Call Option: Conversely, a lower strike price for the sold call option decreases the overall delta exposure. The sold option's higher delta offsets more of the delta from the purchased option, resulting in a lower net delta for the spread. Examples of Delta Exposure: Example 1: Buying a call option with a strike price of 0.0064 and selling a call option with a strike price of 0.0065. Purchased call option delta: 0.51 Sold call option delta: 0.34 Net delta: 0.51 - 0.34 = 0.17 Example 2: Buying a call option with a strike price of 0.0064 and selling a call option with a strike price of 0.0066. Purchased call option delta: 0.51 Sold call option delta: 0.21 Net delta: 0.51 - 0.21 = 0.29 As illustrated, the higher the strike price of the sold call option, the greater the net delta exposure. This increased delta indicates that the position is more sensitive to changes in the price of Japanese Yen Futures, allowing traders to capitalize on more significant price movements. Conversely, a lower strike price reduces delta exposure, making the position less sensitive to price changes but also limiting potential gains. Case Study: Japanese Yen Futures Market Scenario: Recently, a downtrend in Japanese Yen Futures appears to have potentially reversed, presenting an opportunity to capitalize on a new potential upward movement. To take advantage of this potential uptrend, we will construct a Bull Call Spread with specific entry, stop loss, and target prices based on Yen Futures prices (underlying). Underlying Trade Setup Entry Price: 0.0064 Stop Loss Price: 0.00633 Target Price: 0.00674 Point Values and Margin Requirements Point Values: For Japanese Yen Futures, each tick (0.0000005) equals $6.25. Therefore, a movement from 0.0064 to 0.0065 represents a 200-tick change, which equals $1,250 per contract. Margin Requirements: Margin requirements for Japanese Yen Futures vary but are currently set at $2,800 per contract on the CME Group website. This amount represents the minimum amount of funds required to maintain the futures position. Valid Bull Call Spread Setup Given the current market scenario, the following setup is selected: 1. Purchased Call Option Strike Price: 0.0064 (ATM) Delta: 0.51 2. Sold Call Option Variations Strike Price 0.0068: Delta: 0.08 3. Net Delta: 0.42 Reward-to-Risk Ratio Calculation Due to the limited risk profile of Debit Spreads, where the maximum potential loss is confined to the initial debit paid, stop loss orders will not be factored into this reward-to-risk ratio calculation. Debit Paid: 0.000085 (call purchased) - 0.000015 (call sold) = 0.00007 Potential Gain: Sold Strike - Strike Bought - Debit Paid = 0.0068 - 0.0064 - 0.00007 = 0.00033 Potential Loss: Debit Paid = 0.00007 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.00033 / 0.00007 ≈ 4.71 This ratio indicates a favorable risk-reward setup, as the potential reward is significantly higher than the risk. Conclusion In this article, we have explored the intricacies of using Bull Call Spreads to tailor delta exposure in Japanese Yen Futures trading. By strategically selecting the strike prices for the options involved, traders can effectively manage their delta exposure, aligning their positions with their market outlook and risk tolerance. Key Points Recapped: Bull Call Spreads: This strategy involves buying an at-the-money (ATM) call option and selling an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option to capitalize on moderate upward price movements. Delta Exposure: The delta of the options involved plays a crucial role in determining the overall sensitivity of the spread to price changes in the underlying asset. Strike Price Variations: Adjusting the strike price of the sold call option can significantly impact the net delta exposure, offering traders the flexibility to fine-tune their positions. Case Study: A practical example using Japanese Yen Futures illustrated how varying the sold unit's strike price changes the delta exposure, providing concrete insights into the strategy. Risk Management: We always emphasize the importance of stop loss orders, hedging techniques, avoiding undefined risk exposure, and precise entries and exits ensures that trades are structured with proper risk controls. By understanding and applying these principles, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of options trading, making informed decisions that align with their trading objectives. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6JU2024Education
by traddictiv
2
Yen Futures: Resale of Call options 0.006850 Bearish SentimentThe targets set for the Yen on February 19th have almost been reached. The uptrend still has a small potential to reach target number 2, but after that the Yen's downtrend will most likely continue. This is supported by COT reports and activity in option portfolios, which were formed on February 29 (at the local minimum) on the CME exchange. The prices of futures and volatility have increased. Stated that someone BIG and WELL INFORMED market participant is profiting from reselling 0.00685 call options without waiting for them to become ITM (in-the-money). Can you guess why?)
CME:6JH2024Short
by ClashChartsTeam
Bullish Shark on the Japanese Yen Futures Feb 16th ContractThere is a Bullish Shark visible on the Japanese Yen Futures contract expiring on Feb 16th 2024, there is also RSI Bullish Divergence on the 4 Hour Timeframe at this level. A higher low bounce in the JPY from here would likely result in further tightening of the Japanese carry trade, which would be bad for stock and particularly bad for REITs and Financial Institutions. Saying as though it is the Feb 16th Contract that this Harmonic has completed on, I would expect the JPY to rise sharply leading into the expiration of this contract.
CME:6JG2024Long
by RizeSenpai
Where is the Yen HeadingInterest rates are to asset prices, like what gravity is to an apple, once said Warren Buffet. Low interest rates imply low gravitational pull to asset prices. Similarly, a loose interest regime when faced-off against a fierce monetary stance, can send the former currency deflating at an alarming clip. This paper peeks into the Japanese macro environment. It then contrasts it with the situation in the US. The sentiments among the respective central bankers amid the macro forces at play will dictate the path ahead for the Yen. Bank of Japan's (BoJ) "looser for longer" policy when weighed against "higher for longer" Fed’s stance, points to Yen weakening to JPY 155/USD by the end of the year. Accordingly, this paper posits a short position in CME Japanese Yen futures expiring in December 2023 to gain from a weakening Yen with an entry at 0.0069445 followed by a target at 0.0064600 and hedged by a stop loss at 0.0074075, delivering a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.05x. FOREX MARKETS ARE A WINDOW TO MACRO SENTIMENTS The past two weeks have been eventful in FX markets. It has been marked by volatility and uncertainty with fresh fears of rate hikes following Fed’s hawkish tone at Jackson Hole and strong economic data. An otherwise stubbornly robust US labour market has finally started to show signs of cooling. The fears around and the resilience of the broader US economy is evident in the performance of the DXY as shown by the chart below. Even as the path ahead for the USD remains uncertain, its strength against the Yen looks far more certain. RECESSION DEFYING RESILIENT US ECONOMY The Fed has maintained a hawkish tone. Why? Fed is data driven. And the data points to a resilient US economy with inflation and consumer spending rebounding. However, last Friday's job market data finally points to some cooling. The US labour market has shown incredible resilience in the face of a slowing economy. The data from JOLTs survey highlights that job openings in the US have declined for the last three months and now stand at a 2.5 year low but remains at elevated levels. The job openings to unemployed ratio is at 1.51. Typically, this ratio should be between 1.0-1.2 in line with moderating inflation. The PCE price index for July was released last Thursday which showed a higher-than-expected US inflation reading after almost a year of cooling inflation. It was not entirely surprising as a more moderate increase was expected given the moderation in base-level effects. Crucially, core inflation rose to 4.2% from 4.1% highlighting that underlying inflation remains stubborn. The PCE release points to consumer spending in the US 0.8% higher MoM in July, across both goods and services. Spending grew at its fastest pace in six months potentially risking renewed spike in inflation. Fresh inflation risks in the US have been driven by rising fuel prices. Oil prices have risen due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia. Gasoline pump prices are at its highest level for the year at USD 3.83/gallon as of end-August as per American Automobile Association. Food prices have also been on the rise globally driven by supply imbalances. STAGFLATION FEARS ARE SURFACING IN JAPAN Stagnation and tepid demand best describe Japanese economy for decades now. BoJ is resolute in maintaining ultra-low interest rates in its effort to drive demand. BoJ has had mixed success in stimulating its economy. As stagnation recedes, stagflation fears loom. Stagflation is an economic condition of stagnating economy combined with high inflation. Inflation in Japan has been on the rise for the past year, driven by a surge in global commodities (food & fuel) and the effects of higher prices in other countries. Loose monetary policy along with a higher deficit over the past year has weakened the Yen 5% against the USD. With BoJ committed to further stimulation, the Yen is likely to continue weakening. Notwithstanding tweaks to its YCC (yield curve control) policy and BoJ's FX market intervention, the BoJ has reiterated that its focus is on maintaining stability rather than strength in the Yen. Wage growth this year was driven by the Shunto negotiation in 30 years of 3.8% increase in base pay. However, real wage growth remains low. Wage growth will have to continue sustainably, rather than through sporadic, one-time, increases. Japan is at the cusp of exiting decades of deflation. Despite CPI above 2% target, BoJ fears that it is premature to declare victory as pace of services inflation remains moderate. This might push BOJ to maintain monetary policy loose for longer to ensure that Japan doesn’t tip back into deflation. This continued dovish stance risk pushing the USD/JPY pair to 155, forecasted Goldman Sachs FX strategists. However, if BoJ pivots to being hawkish, JPY is expected to strengthen to 135/USD. TRADE SET UP Using CME’s Japanese Yen Futures, investors can secure exposure to the Yen. Each lot provides an exposure to 12.5 million Japanese Yen with exchange maintenance margin requirements of USD 3,300 per lot (as of September 4th). Each pip expressed as 0.0000005 per JPY increment delivers a P&L of USD 6.25. The proposed trade set up comprises of short position in Japanese Yen Futures expiring in December 2023 (6JZ3) with an entry at 0.0069445 followed by a target at 0.0064600 and hedged by a stop loss at 0.0074075, delivering a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.05x. • Entry: 0.0069445 (~JPY 144/USD) • Target: 0.0064600 (~JPY 154.8/USD) • Stop: 0.0074075 (~JPY 135.0/USD) • Profit at Target: USD 6,056.25 (( /0.0000005 = 969 pips x 6.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 5,787.5 (( /0.0000005 = 926) pips x 6.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.05x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Japanese Yen USD/JPY Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Japanese Yen Futures or USD/JPY in the Forex Market. The Japanese Yen Futures follows an annual seasonal pattern also correlated with other markets including stocks and bonds. Also the Bank of Japan can heavily influence this market. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of the USD/JPY and Japanese Yen Futures. Enjoy, Trade Well Clifford
CME:6J1!
by TradeTheIndex
NZDJPY and AUDJPY Reversals?Both the daily charts of AUDJPY and NZDJPY are showing signs of a reversal. With the NZDJPY, we had a double bottom at the 67.00 zone. It is a big support/flip zone. Yesterday we had a break and close above the 69.30 zone which is also a break above the previous swing (lower high). I like the structure here and as long as we hold the breakout zone, I can see price moving to the 72.00 zone. AUDJPY also interesting and has created a confirmed higher low with this higher high we got on yesterdays daily close. Would target the 76.00 zone if we hold this breakout zone. Finishing off with the Yen futures, let us see if we break this larger head and shoulders pattern. Would provide more confluence for our trade. Conversely, the yen futures on the 4 hour can be basing for a reversal.
Long
by Uncharted-FX