Yen's Sudden Strength: Is the Bank of Japan Back in Action?The recent dramatic rise of the Japanese yen has sent ripples through the financial world. Three sharp surges – on July 11th, 12th, and 17th – have fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is once again intervening in currency markets. These interventions have resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the US dollar, bringing it to ¥156 per dollar. This is a significant rise, especially considering the yen's plunge to 37-year lows earlier in July.
While the BoJ hasn't explicitly confirmed its involvement, the timing and nature of the surges strongly suggest its influence. Central banks typically intervene in currency markets to achieve specific economic goals. In the case of Japan, the recent depreciation of the yen has become a cause for concern. A weaker yen makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflation. Additionally, it can destabilize financial markets and harm Japanese exporters who rely on a competitive exchange rate.
Possible Reasons for Intervention:
• Curbing Inflation: Japan has recently experienced a rise in inflation, exceeding the BoJ's target of 2%. A stronger yen makes imported goods cheaper, helping to ease inflationary pressures.
• Supporting Exporters: A weaker yen can initially benefit exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, a persistently weak currency can erode profitability in the long run. By stabilizing the yen, the BoJ might be aiming to create a more predictable environment for Japanese exporters.
• Signaling Resolve: The BoJ has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy for years, keeping interest rates near zero. This policy has contributed to the yen's weakness. By intervening in the market, the BoJ might be sending a signal of its commitment to preventing further depreciation.
Potential Challenges and Implications:
• Market Backlash: Excessive intervention by the BoJ could be seen as manipulating the market. This could lead to a loss of confidence in the yen and potentially trigger counter-interventions by other central banks.
• Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated. While it can achieve short-term results, it's difficult to sustain a stronger yen in the long run if underlying economic fundamentals don't support it.
• Impact on Global Markets: A stronger yen can have a ripple effect on global markets. It can make Japanese investments less attractive to foreign investors and potentially trigger capital outflows.
Looking Ahead:
The BoJ's recent actions have certainly bolstered the yen. However, it remains to be seen whether this can be sustained. The long-term trajectory of the yen will depend on various factors, including global economic conditions, interest rate policies, and investor sentiment. The BoJ might need to continue intervening if it wants to maintain a more stable exchange rate. However, it will have to tread carefully to avoid unintended consequences and potential market backlash.
In conclusion, the recent surge in the yen's value has reignited the debate about currency intervention. While the BoJ's actions might provide some temporary relief, the long-term outlook for the yen remains uncertain. The future path of the Japanese economy and global financial conditions will ultimately determine the fate of the yen.
Yenpair
Retail Traders Poised for Yen Rebound - Consider Shorting USDJPYI am writing to bring to your immediate attention a critical development in the forex market that could present a significant trading opportunity.
As many of you are aware, the recent slide in the Japanese yen has been a point of concern. This depreciation has heightened the probability of Japan intervening in the market once more to stabilize its currency. Historical patterns suggest that such interventions can lead to rapid and substantial movements in the yen's value.
Currently, it appears that retail traders are reloading their bets in anticipation of a rebound in the yen. This collective action underscores a growing sentiment that the yen is poised for a recovery, potentially driven by governmental measures to curb its decline.
Given these circumstances, it may be prudent to consider positioning yourselves for this anticipated rebound. Specifically, shorting the USD/JPY could be a strategic move. By doing so, you could potentially capitalize on the yen's resurgence if Japan steps in to support its currency.
I urge you to review your portfolios and assess the potential benefits of shorting USD/JPY in light of the current market dynamics. As always, ensure that any trading decisions are made with careful consideration and risk management.
Stay vigilant and informed. The forex market is highly dynamic, and timely actions can make a significant difference.
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar.
A Perfect Storm for the Yen
Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline:
• Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders.
• Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive.
Intervention: A Looming Wildcard
The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue.
Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress?
The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite:
• Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly.
• Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure.
Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance
The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market:
• Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government.
• Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen.
• Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Long USDJPY as Bank of Japan Raises Rates!The hedge fund industry's short weakness on the yen is creating a fantastic opportunity for us to long USDJPY! As the Bank of Japan prepares to raise rates, now is the perfect time to capitalize on this trend and potentially make some significant profits.
The recent weakness in hedge fund shorts on the yen has created a favorable environment for us to take advantage of. With the Bank of Japan signaling a potential rate hike shortly, the USDJPY pair is poised for a strong upward movement. This is a golden opportunity for us to get in on the action and potentially ride the wave of a bullish trend.
I urge you all to consider taking a long position on USDJPY and seize this opportunity to potentially profit from the upcoming rate hike. Don't miss out on this chance to make some serious gains in the forex market!
Let's make the most of this exciting opportunity and maximize our potential profits together. Get ready to long USDJPY and ride the wave of success as the Bank of Japan raises rates!
www.hedgeweek.com
USDJPY : Trend is bullish above 129.60As we can see from the chart above, the previously shared analysis hasn't changed (see chart below). From a technical point of view, we have considered the idea of a potential bullish swing developed with at least 3 legs, such as ABC for example )without excluding an impulsive structure 12345 with Target above the previous Top).
Now, instead of following the pair on the weekly chart as we did previously, let's try to show the first 2 potential Target Areas:
- 140.00 (Target 1)
- 143.00 (Target 2)
Having said that, the support still remains at 129.67 and as long as Price Action remains above, trend on daily chart is bullish. Having said that, the support still remains at 129.67 and as long as Price Action remains above, trend on daily chart is bullish. At the same time, we can follow the pair on intraday chart too, looking for closer supports that could anticipate the potential Bullish Pattern failure.
ANALYSIS ON WEEKLY CHART:
(Click & Play on Chart below)
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Ride the Wave of Yen Drop Against Dollar
As you may already know, the Japanese Yen has been experiencing a significant drop against the US Dollar due to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) strategic move of buying bonds to curb the rising yield. This development has created a highly favorable environment for traders looking to long USDJPY and capitalize on this exciting trend.
The BOJ's proactive measures to slow down the rising yield have effectively weakened the Yen, creating an ideal scenario for traders seeking to profit from the currency pair's movement. This drop opens up a window of opportunity for those who are ready to take advantage of the situation and potentially reap substantial rewards.
Now, you might be wondering, "How can I seize this opportunity and maximize my profits?" Well, the answer lies in considering a long position on USDJPY! By going long on this currency pair, you position yourself to benefit from the Yen's decline against the Dollar. This trade could potentially yield remarkable returns if timed correctly.
So, what are you waiting for? Don't miss out on this thrilling chance to ride the wave of the Yen's drop against the Dollar! Take action now and consider opening a position to long USDJPY. With careful analysis, a well-executed strategy, and the right timing, you could be on your way to securing substantial profits.
Remember, timing is crucial in the world of trading, and this opportunity might not last forever. Stay ahead of the curve and make the most of the current market conditions. Embrace the excitement, seize the moment, and let your trading skills shine!
If you require any further information or assistance in making the most of this opportunity, please do not hesitate to reach out to our expert team. We are here to support you every step of the way.
Wishing you an exhilarating trading experience and remarkable success!
USD/JPY Breaks Records with Over 60 Trillion Traded Between Jan The USD/JPY has been making waves in the market, soaring to unprecedented heights, with over 60 trillion dollar traded between January and September. Can you believe it? This is a monumental achievement!
As a seasoned trader, you understand the significance of such a phenomenal trading volume. The yen's remarkable performance is a testament to its strength and stability in these uncertain times. I can't help but feel a sense of optimism and enthusiasm, once again reminding me why I love being a part of this dynamic trading community.
Given the yen's incredible performance, I encourage you to consider taking advantage of this exciting opportunity and going long on the yen. With a robust trading volume supporting it, the yen proves to be a promising investment choice for both experienced traders and newcomers alike. Ride the wave of success and embrace the potential it brings!
Remember, success favors the brave, and with the yen's impressive trading volume, now is the perfect time to dive into the market and long USD/JPY. Embrace the joy of trading, make your moves wisely, and harness the power of this extraordinary market development.
www.asia.nikkei.com
CHFJPY I Expect to fall further toward next supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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Expecting an intervention from the Central Bank of JapanLook at those beautiful channels for $FX:USDJPY. Last year, we had a strong uptrend from 115 to 151, and the central bank had to intervene strongly. We see another uptrend this year as well. There is a fight between the market and the central bank. BoJ had to make a move when the price reached to 144. But it seems market wants to push higher this. We potentially see another intervention around 148.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
CNHJPY - Massive SHORT!! The pair that just keeps on giving ...... and giving, and then give some more.
Should one lack the inclination to deal with everyday FX volatility (or with the lack thereof) then this is the pair to be SHORT , in George Foreman style, ala; "Just set it and forget it!"
Simply put, China's absolute best hope (just a dream, really) to survive it's oncoming demographic (industrial, deurbanization, and ... ) collapse to somehow muddle through one of it's worst decade and a half well under way, to transition through total "Japanification". (This is only a hope, requiring lots and lots of luck to pull it off.)
This is undeniably China's best possible future scenario, all else being a far inferior outcome.
Consequently, as Japan is snapping out of it's 30 year slumber just as China "hopes" to achieve Japanification, this pair (provided any future convertibility of the Yuan) will mirror that process, obviously like no other.
E.g. SELL it (Short) for good! (through about 2035 and possibly beyond.)
Here is the Weekly;
SHORT it anywhere here!
p.s. The scenario outlined in the main (monthly) chart is only a near-term outlook (12-15 months out), severely understating the potential ultimate (Short) mileage in this pair.
IRRJPY LONG Iranian Rial getting stronger vs Japanease YenIran’s currency hits record low amid tensions with the West
Depreciation of the rial comes amid boiling tensions with the West and continuing protests in Iran.
On Sunday, the United States dollar went past the 450,000-rial mark for the first time on the open market.
On Sunday, the central bank said it will soon raise the maximum amount of currency that can be sold to an individual annually from 2,000 euros ($2,176) to 5,000 euros ($5,439) in an apparent effort to show it has no shortage of currency.
The cap was introduced after the US unilaterally abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, triggering a new currency crisis in Iran.
To combat currency devaluation, Iran’s police force has periodically announced the arrest of dozens of currency speculators in recent months.
Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki kept up verbal warnings on Tuesday against the yen's depreciation, saying he would respond appropriately if currency moves became excessive.
At the end the interest rates differential between 2 countries are important.
Which country offers more interest rates for your money? That currency is the winner
CADJPY I BOC Rate Statement Trading PlanWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CADJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Can USD/JPY rally through this 300-pip liquidity gap?Divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ have allowed USD/JPY to extend its bullish trend on the daily chart. Whilst the Fed are very close to their terminal rate, they have to keep the threat of further hikes on the table to tame inflation expectations. When coupled with the ultra-easy policies of the BOJ, we've seen USD/JPY return to its cycle highs.
However, the current resistance level around the November high marks the lows of a ~300-pip liquidity gap - and such areas can see prices move swiftly through them if revisited.
Soft US inflation data last November sent USD/JPY aggressively lower on the day, and left the liquidity gap to potentially be filled. The question now is whether bulls can persist and send prices within it, which could see USD/JPY head for the range highs around 145.
Of course, a building threat for bulls to keep in the back of their mind is that Japan's Ministry of Finance or the BOJ could become vocal about yen volatility to spook JPY bears. But until then, we prefer to buy dips on the daily chart or seek bullish continuation patterns on lower timeframes.
CHFJPY I How far will it go and what to expectWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the
USD/JPY hits fresh multi-year high, holds above 119.00 USD/JPY hits fresh multi-year high, holds above 119.00 amid resurgent USD demand
FUNDAMENTAL:
1
USD/JPY caught fresh bids on Friday after the BoJ stuck to its accommodative policy stance.
A goodish pickup in the USD demand provided an additional boost and remained supportive.
A softer risk tone could benefit the safe-haven JPY and cap gains amid overbought conditions.
The USD/JPY pair extended its steady intraday ascent through the mid-European session and climbed to a fresh multi-year peak, around the 119.10-119.15 region in the last hour.
A combination of supporting factors assisted the USD/JPY pair to regain positive traction on the last day of the week and prolong its recent bullish trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks or so. The Bank of Japan stuck to its dovish stance and left its ultra-easy policy setting unchanged at the end of the March meeting. This, in turn, weighed on the Japanese yen and pushed the pair higher amid a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand.
The greenback made a solid comeback on Friday and reversed the previous day's slide to the one-week low, bolstered by the start of the policy tightening cycle by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the US central bank hike its target fund rate by 25 bps on Wednesday and indicated that it could raise interest rates at all the six remaining meetings in 2022. This, along with elevated US Treasury bond yields, underpinned the greenback.
The latest leg up now seems to have confirmed a near-term bullish breakout and might have already set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. The divergence in the BoJ-Fed monetary policy outlook adds credence to the constructive outlook. That said, extremely overbought conditions on the daily chart could hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets, at least for the time being.
Moreover, a weaker risk tone, which tends to benefit the safe-haven Japanese yen, might further contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair. The lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations tempered investors' appetite for riskier assets and led to a fresh leg down in the equity markets. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
Nevertheless, the bias seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders, though the technical set-up makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg up. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair seems all set to settle near the highest level since February 2016 and record strong gains for the second successive week.
2
Holding 118.595 Puts USD/JPY in Position to Resume Uptrend
The Dollar/Yen is edging higher on Friday after consolidating for nearly two sessions despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday signaling the equivalent of a quarter-point increase at each of its six remaining policy meetings this year, leaving investors racing to work out how much monetary tightening the economy can handle.
The USD/JPY picked up some support overnight after Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers voted to maintain ultra-accommodative monetary settings. This move widened the policy gap with the Fed, which helped make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 119.118 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 114.651 will change the main trend to down.
A change in trend to down at this time is highly unlikely, but the Forex pair is currently inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2-3 day correction.
The USD/JPY is currently straddling a pair of former tops at 118.601 and 118.658. They could become new support following the “old top, new bottom” rule. The nearest support level is a minor pivot at 116.765.
Short-Term Outlook
The direction of the USD/JPY on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 118.595.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 118.595 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 119.118 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.
The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with no resistance coming in until the January 29, 2016 main top at 121.678.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 118.595 will signal the presence of sellers. A failure to hold 118.176 will break the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a pullback with the pivot at 116.765 the next potential downside target.
Side Notes
Taking out 119.118 then closing below 118.595 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day correction with 116.765 the first downside target.
If Breaking 121 upward UDJPY can reach 125 and then 130-135!
Strategy on low time frame:
Go with the TREND!POSITION SIZE ONLYIF THE PRIOR POSITION STOP IS IN PROFIT(TRAILING TOPTURNS TO TAKE PROFIT LEVEL)
BUYING PULL BACK RED BARS