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EURJPY : Cluster Resistance Aligns with Bearish ContinuationWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURJPY Analysis ! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by OGT_Forex
EURJPY I Potential retracement and more downside Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 22, 2024 USDJPYHigher market sentiment and rising US bond yields are limiting the rise of the low-yielding yen. The US Dollar is holding near its highest level in the last year and is providing support to the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted buying for the second day in a row following the release of slightly better-than-expected Japanese consumer inflation data. This came amid statements released on Thursday by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which kept expectations of an interest rate hike in December. In addition, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's 39 trillion yen economic stimulus package boosts the Yen and puts some pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the prevailing risk-on and higher US Treasury yields keep traders from aggressive bullish bets on the low-yielding Yen. Investors remain concerned that U.S. President Donald Trump's policies could lead to renewed inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slowly cut interest rates. This has been a key factor in the recent rise in US bond yields, which has kept the US Dollar (USD) near yearly highs and provided support to the USD/JPY pair. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 154.00, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Yen VS Dollar; Trade with cautionGlobal financial markets are bracing for a possible Fed rate cut. Accordingly, forex markets have priced in the anticipated rate cut. September CPI data indicated US inflation is on course towards 2%; seems like the prevailing interest rates are working. Blackrock thinks the Fed will be cautious with a 25-bps rate cut as opposed to a 50-bps rate cut. There is also the remote possibility that the Fed will be cautious and maintain the rates. Ostensibly, it seems the markets have aggressively priced in a rate cut that has seen the dollar weaken against major currencies. Looking at cross Yen pairs, bearish momentum is dominant in Q3 OF 2024. However, we have seen price imbalance and price inefficiency across all Yen pairs that must be corrected. For this imbalance to be corrected, we require the US Dollar to rise. All factors held constant, retaining rates or cutting rates lesser than expected will spook the markets and we could see the dollar strengthen against the Yen and other major global currencies. Turning to the US Dollar index, we see a potential for further weakening before the index rises targeting 105 to 110 price levels.
by morrisgitau
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAfter an 8-week break from USD/JPY, I’m excited to bring it back to our watchlist as we prepare for next week’s trading! Over the past 9 months, this pair has experienced major shifts—from early-year expectations of Japan's monetary policy changes to the dollar's surge mid-year and the USD/JPY oscillating around the 150 zone in October. Key drivers include Japan's inflation data, with the latest CPI rising 2.5% YoY in September. As market rumours of another intervention grow, what opportunities lie ahead? Let's explore the key levels, trends, and setups for the coming week. USDJPY Technical Analysis: As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 150.000. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the key level of 150.000, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead. #JapanInflation #USDJPY #Yen #BoJ #FederalReserve #Forex #CurrencyTrading #EconomicAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Finance
by darcsherry
USD/JPY Market Update: Key Levels and Long-Term ProjectionsUSD/JPY Market Update: Key Levels and Projections The USD/JPY pair is nearing significant resistance levels, with potential for a correction if price action encounters selling pressure. Here’s a concise analysis of the current market structure: Sell Zone: 152.713 - 151.934 - 150.814 This sell zone marks crucial resistance levels. If the pair closes above 152.713 on the daily time frame, the market could turn extremely bullish. However, within this zone, price could face significant resistance, triggering a pullback. Buy Zone: Below 139, 136.000, and 128.000 The buy zones are below 139, with key support levels around 136.000 and 128.000. These zones are expected to hold strong buying interest if a correction occurs, providing opportunities for a reversal back to the upside. Current Price Action At 149.540, USD/JPY is approaching the lower boundary of the sell zone. While momentum remains bullish, watch for potential reversals near resistance. COG: 144.438 The center of gravity (COG) at 144.438 is an important mid-level to watch. It could act as a pivot point in case of a price retracement, offering insight into the strength of the pullback. Key Levels: Resistance: 152.713 - 151.934 - 150.814 (Sell Zone). Support: Below 139, 136.000, 128.000 (Buy Zones). COG: 144.438. Outlook A breakout above 152.713 may drive further gains, while a correction toward 136.000 or below offers potential buying opportunities. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to boost this post if you agree with my analysis.
by Gravity-Traders-Academy
JAPANESE YEN INDEXThe Japanese Yen index (JXY) has been on a long term bearish trend. Recent intervention by the BoJ has lifted the Yen. On the weekly charts, the Yen has broken a key level indicating a shift in order flow. Price is expected to push higher to mitigate supply zones. In the short term, we expect the Yen to decline before resuming the bullish move. Consequently, majority of cross Yen pairs will push higher as the Yen index moves lower. Thereafter we expect the Yen to strengthen possibly towards the end of 2024.
TVC:JXYLong
by morrisgitau
ICT Long setup on NZDJPY👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in NZDJPY for session trade (a couple of hours) Here is a session trade idea (since it is near support surface, we should use small lot size) Please refer to the details Stop loss, Buy Zone,open for take profit. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
2
BOJ capitulates spectacularly Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility. It’s an amazing statement, signalling the BOJ can and will be bullied by markets to avoid doing what is right for the Japanese economy. It’s an incredibly dovish admission, giving traders the green light to re-establish carry trades until the BOJ starts making noise about hiking rates again, or we see a major global economic downturn. The Yen is tumbling understandably. Adding to the dovish surprise, Uchida said the BOJ must maintain the degree of monetary easing for now and suggested the BOJ would not be behind the curve if it didn’t usher through rate hikes “at pace”. It’s a capitulation of the grandest scale, undoubtedly orchestrated to restore calm to financial markets. It was only just over a week ago the BPOJ hiked more than expected and provided a hawkish outlook on the monetary policy outlook. USD/JPY surges as carry trades established USD/JPY has surged back above resistance at 146.50 on Uchida’s remarks, putting a potential retest of the January 2023 uptrend in play. The formation is also yet to be completed, but the three-candle pattern looks like a morning star, adding to confidence that we may have seen the cyclical bottom. Should the price manage to remain above 146.50, consider buying with a stop below the level for protection. The intersection of the former uptrend and horizontal resistance at 148.80 is one potential trade target. Should that go, 149.70, 150.90 and 151.95 are the next upside levels of note. The downtrend in RSI (14) has been broken, signalling downside momentum may be ebbing. It has yet to be confirmed by MACD but looks trustworthy given the speed of the rebound. It’s not just bottoming patterns being seen in USD/JPY but also other pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. -- Written by David Scutt
Long
by WHSelfInvest
Yen Bulls Hedge Funds Reduce Short Bets with BOJ Intervention The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been a story of woe in 2024, weakening considerably against the US Dollar (USD) due to a widening interest rate gap between the two countries. However, a recent shift in sentiment is brewing, with hedge funds reducing their bearish bets on the Yen in a significant move. Hedge Funds Cut Short Bets on Yen in Historic Move According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the Yen by a staggering 38,025 contracts during the week ending July 16th. This marks the largest single-week reduction in short positions since March 2011, highlighting a potential turning point in the Yen's fortunes. Despite this significant cutback, it's important to note that hedge funds remain net short on the Yen, holding a total of 76,588 short contracts. This indicates a cautious optimism, with some investors still hesitant to fully embrace a Yen rebound. Intervention and Policy Shifts Fuel Yen's Rise The retreat from short positions by hedge funds coincides with several developments that have bolstered the Yen. Most notably, the Japanese government is suspected of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. Reports suggest that Japanese authorities spent a substantial JPY 5.64 trillion (approximately USD 35.8 billion) over two trading sessions to prop up the currency from near its weakest levels since the 1980s. This intervention likely played a significant role in halting the Yen's decline and triggering a rebound against the USD. Beyond intervention, the Yen has also benefited from shifting expectations regarding US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, which has been raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, may be nearing the peak of its tightening cycle. Increased expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in September have narrowed the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, making the Yen a more attractive proposition for some investors. Trump's Comments Add Fuel to the Fire Adding another layer of intrigue to the Yen's recent strengthening are comments from former US President Donald Trump. Trump, known for his unorthodox views on currency valuations, has reportedly criticized the weakness of the Yen. While his influence on markets is less pronounced than when he held office, his comments may have added a touch of uncertainty for USD bulls, potentially encouraging some to reduce their long positions. A Tentative Rebound or a Long-Term Shift? The recent developments surrounding the Yen paint a complex picture. While the reduction in short positions and the Yen's rebound are positive signs, it's too early to declare a definitive reversal. The overall direction of the Yen will likely hinge on several factors, including: • Future Actions by the Bank of Japan (BOJ): The BOJ, unlike many central banks, has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. Any indication of a potential shift towards tighter monetary policy could further bolster the Yen. • The Trajectory of US Interest Rates: If the Fed continues with its aggressive rate hikes, the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will widen, putting downward pressure on the Yen. • Global Risk Sentiment: The Yen is often seen as a safe-haven currency. If global economic uncertainty increases, investors may flock to the Yen, driving its value up. Conclusion: A Yen in Flux The Yen's recent strengthening and the reduction in short positions by hedge funds represent a potential turning point. However, the future trajectory of the Yen remains uncertain, dependent on a confluence of factors. Investors should closely monitor developments in both the Japanese and US economies, as well as broader market sentiment, to gauge the Yen's long-term prospects.
by bryandowningqln
Yen's Sudden Strength: Is the Bank of Japan Back in Action?The recent dramatic rise of the Japanese yen has sent ripples through the financial world. Three sharp surges – on July 11th, 12th, and 17th – have fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is once again intervening in currency markets. These interventions have resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the US dollar, bringing it to ¥156 per dollar. This is a significant rise, especially considering the yen's plunge to 37-year lows earlier in July. While the BoJ hasn't explicitly confirmed its involvement, the timing and nature of the surges strongly suggest its influence. Central banks typically intervene in currency markets to achieve specific economic goals. In the case of Japan, the recent depreciation of the yen has become a cause for concern. A weaker yen makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflation. Additionally, it can destabilize financial markets and harm Japanese exporters who rely on a competitive exchange rate. Possible Reasons for Intervention: • Curbing Inflation: Japan has recently experienced a rise in inflation, exceeding the BoJ's target of 2%. A stronger yen makes imported goods cheaper, helping to ease inflationary pressures. • Supporting Exporters: A weaker yen can initially benefit exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, a persistently weak currency can erode profitability in the long run. By stabilizing the yen, the BoJ might be aiming to create a more predictable environment for Japanese exporters. • Signaling Resolve: The BoJ has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy for years, keeping interest rates near zero. This policy has contributed to the yen's weakness. By intervening in the market, the BoJ might be sending a signal of its commitment to preventing further depreciation. Potential Challenges and Implications: • Market Backlash: Excessive intervention by the BoJ could be seen as manipulating the market. This could lead to a loss of confidence in the yen and potentially trigger counter-interventions by other central banks. • Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated. While it can achieve short-term results, it's difficult to sustain a stronger yen in the long run if underlying economic fundamentals don't support it. • Impact on Global Markets: A stronger yen can have a ripple effect on global markets. It can make Japanese investments less attractive to foreign investors and potentially trigger capital outflows. Looking Ahead: The BoJ's recent actions have certainly bolstered the yen. However, it remains to be seen whether this can be sustained. The long-term trajectory of the yen will depend on various factors, including global economic conditions, interest rate policies, and investor sentiment. The BoJ might need to continue intervening if it wants to maintain a more stable exchange rate. However, it will have to tread carefully to avoid unintended consequences and potential market backlash. In conclusion, the recent surge in the yen's value has reignited the debate about currency intervention. While the BoJ's actions might provide some temporary relief, the long-term outlook for the yen remains uncertain. The future path of the Japanese economy and global financial conditions will ultimately determine the fate of the yen.
by bryandowningqln
1
Retail Traders Poised for Yen Rebound - Consider Shorting USDJPYI am writing to bring to your immediate attention a critical development in the forex market that could present a significant trading opportunity. As many of you are aware, the recent slide in the Japanese yen has been a point of concern. This depreciation has heightened the probability of Japan intervening in the market once more to stabilize its currency. Historical patterns suggest that such interventions can lead to rapid and substantial movements in the yen's value. Currently, it appears that retail traders are reloading their bets in anticipation of a rebound in the yen. This collective action underscores a growing sentiment that the yen is poised for a recovery, potentially driven by governmental measures to curb its decline. Given these circumstances, it may be prudent to consider positioning yourselves for this anticipated rebound. Specifically, shorting the USD/JPY could be a strategic move. By doing so, you could potentially capitalize on the yen's resurgence if Japan steps in to support its currency. I urge you to review your portfolios and assess the potential benefits of shorting USD/JPY in light of the current market dynamics. As always, ensure that any trading decisions are made with careful consideration and risk management. Stay vigilant and informed. The forex market is highly dynamic, and timely actions can make a significant difference.
Short
by bryandowningqln
GBPJPY LEVEL UPSimple design with projected potential support/resistance level which can be traded in both reversal setups of breakouts after consolidation if relevant price action, patterns, signals, setups, occur at them. For example: if a correction occurs towards the red where the price signals a potential turnaround, and after a climb towards the green and a descent towards the yellow and a consolidation period, maybe the yellow pops on the downside triggering a slide towards the cyan. Any other combinations of scenarios can be considered as long as the market provides signs that these levels are relevant and not just random generated (or both).
by nen
ICT Short setup GBPJPY, H4 timeframe, Swing trade👋Hello Traders, Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H4 or higher timeframe ICT Short setup in GBPJPY for Swing trade. Please refer to the details Stop loss, FVG(Sell Zone),open for take profit. For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview. Have a good day! Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
Short
by ICT_Trader_SB
USDJPY Short time bearishFor years now Yen has been weak and USDJPY Rose 11% in the last 5 months meaning the trend is bullish . FX:USDJPY Peaked at 160 area last month then we saw some selling pressure which drove the rate to 152 zone {Last year high} Price rejection since this month open from 158 means we have some selling pressure, Today after US GDP QoQ2 release USDJPY Dropped 900 points too. I would wait to get a favorable long entry points. Areas of focus 155, 152, lowest 150. Below that the bias turns bearish mid term.
by alonso780