USDJPY: ABCD in Progress Towards Key Demand ZoneUSDJPY came down strongly after a fake breakout of 112 since last week.
We can clearly see a falling channel is forming since the first wave of bearish movement has ended and as the second wave is still in progress.
In an ABCD pattern, it is important to watch for the break of point C before we can conclude that it is able to form D and that's what's happening now.
So let's wait patiently for the price to complete the ABCD pattern as it enters the key demand zone around the price of 111, sitting on a 4-month rising trendline.
This demand zone is strong also due to the fact that many sellers might have been trapped after the breakout of a falling channel in 11th April.
Yenpairs
USDJPY LOOKING GOOD FOR BULLS!USDJPY is showing some great bullish potential and is currently consolidating ( trading sideways) and creating bullish divergence.
I will be looking for a bearish retracement of 50% of the bullish impulse move ( point 1 to point 2). Should price moved towards this zone, I will be going long with 1% capital risked.
Considering price is consolidating as such, there is a possibility that price may re- test the trend line and go long from there. I will update my analysis accordingly.
SL (Red line) - Should price move to this zone my edge will be invalidated.
TP (Green line) - Take profit is set at twice the length of the retracement thus creating an opportunity with a 1:2 Risk to reward.
What on earth happened with the Yen?Loads of /JPY pairs were affected on Thursday and Friday. There's hardly anything I can find on this in mainstream media. It's either the Yen went south or 'everybody' else decided to power up their respective other currencies.
I don't know what exactly happened. If anybody else knows do share with the community.
USDJPY Breaks Short-Term Resistance, But Short Trade OvercrowdedWe've seen a huge risk-off shift in sentiment over the past few trading days stemming back from last Friday that saw many safe haven assets like the Japanese yen strengthen. There's many reasons why this is including ongoing concerns of a global growth slowdown, signals of recession such as the yield curve inversion, and thematic concerns lurking in the background such as the ongoing trade war between the United States and primarily the Chines but really with the rest of the world. Short-term support was broken with the yen on Friday and no rebound occurred yesterday or as of yet today in trading to get back above that line. Moreover, our bull/bear market indicator suggests the yen is now trending bearish while price action continues to fluctuate below the 200 day moving average.
However, there are signs that a short-term uptrend could occur. This evidence mainly lies in two oscillators and a bit in sentiment. First, CCI asserts that we are fairly close to oversold territory. However, this signal was stronger on Monday morning and has since receded. More convincingly, the sentiment indicator from Madrid suggests we are in an overcrowded sold environment. Contradicting this is data from IG via DailyFX also suggests that traders are net long and that the contrarian trade is already a bit overdone with signals that sentiment is mixed. Here's that data: www.dailyfx.com
Overall, this is difficult trading territory fundamentally and technially. While a good amount of evidence suggests we are a bit overdone in shorting dollar/yen technically, the fundamentals and the potential continued trend of global growth slowdown suggest that in the medium- to long-term that price action will flirt with much lower price levels than what investors are currently witnessing. For price targets, 105 remains a psychological barrier to overcome that the flash crash of January tested. Movement to this level is clearly not in the cards in the short- or medium-term as fluctuations between 108.50 and 111.90 are much more realistic.
For more analysis on the yen and other related issue, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
USDJPY- REVISTING FLASH CRASH LOWS? SPX RISK SENTIMENT RETURNINGOverall multifaceted analysis leading me to short USDJPY
SPX has entered a period of constrained volatility as we could see risk sentiment return to the market?
What does this mean for the so called "flash Crash" that we had in the Yen earlier in the year? Well at 700 Pip rally in less than a quarter is a massive move, but can we sustain that momentum?
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EUR/JPYThe EUR/JPY pair is moving in a descending channel on the higher timeframes, however, the price failed to go below the 123.60 level. Hence i am of the opinion that the price will continue to rally until it gets to the resistance of the channel.
A buy will be more feasible upon the retest of the inner downward trendline within the descending channel, as price seems to have already broken it
GBP/JPY Samurai master plan unveiled, short swing opportunityWhat we have here on the daily chart:
- Those highs sitting right below the daily block
- The daily breaker which should now act as temporary support
So I'm thinking the Samurai will initiate a fake breakout of that inverse head and shoulders we're making, take those highs (loads of stops resting there by now), and proceed to sell off. Maybe aim for the red weekly level below in a few months.
This could be a few weeks worth of trade but 1000 pips sure sounds nice.
Of course, it's possible this theory gets invalidated, which would happen if we really get a breakout and then find support around the thick green level.
Trade carefully, the Samurai are watching.