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USD/JPY MONTHLY Short/Bearish Trend. Correction or recession?Great opportunity to short usd/jpy for a long ride down. This is in correlation with USD weakness under trump presidency and also global indices calling for a huge correction on monthly charts. This analysis indicating a major sell off in USD. That could possibly be a geopolitical event maybe north korea/russia and US?? Its like the market predicting and indicating to us that something big is coming!! and Technically I see major fall in usd and strength in jpy and gold.
Short
by Sagefx
Is USD/JPY ready for a bounce? Here is the level to watch.I don't like picking bottoms, however, buyers have stepped up ahead of the 1.08 level. This is a 2-day chart. There are two scenarios I see playing out. 1. This is a large retracement from 100-118 range and we are headed back toward the 118 level. 2. A series of lower lows, lower highs has started and we are heading back toward 100.00 The Key Level I believe 112 is the key level. A sustained move above and scenario one has a better probability of playing out. A failure there and scenario 2 seems more likely. I have a limit buy order at 108.90, targeting the 112 level.
by CalebDismuke
Japan225 - Bearish Trend Scenario Japan225 - Bearish Trend Scenario Japenese index Nikkei225 recently broke and retested an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart suggesting more downside for this index and also big strength for jpy pairs according to their correlation. If you look at the weekly chart of japan225, you can see the trump rally has lost its momentum with multiple dojis/shooting stars indicating that the pending correction is coming very soon. Potential targets for retracements is the fib 50% and 61.8% level which is also in confluence with a structured weekly support. if this analysis play out we can see big strength in jpy pairs, I can see gbp/jpy hitting 130 and usd/jpy hitting 106 in the coming days/weeks.
FX:JPN225Short
by Sagefx
CADJPY Breaks Key Support but Keep an Eye on 83.55On Friday the CADJPY broke below the 84.60 handle. This level supported the pair on December 5th of last year but had more recently attracted buyers on February 28th and March 9th. Today’s high of 84.61 illustrates a retest of this area as new resistance. And last week’s breakdown suggests that we could see prices continue to slide lower over the next few sessions. However, there is an area of support not far below the current price that I’m keeping a very close eye on. The 83.55 handle is the intersection of descending channel support and a horizontal level that played a crucial role between February and June of last year. The 83.55 level is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2016 low at 74.80 to the high at 88.91. If we compare the descending channel below to last year’s rally, the price action since mid-December does appear to be corrective. As such, I’m currently labeling the structure a bull flag, which could generate an impressive move higher over the coming weeks and months. But the key word there is could. While the past five months of price action looks relatively bullish, we won’t have any concrete answers until buyers manage a close above channel resistance. As for the 83.55 area, I’ll be watching for bullish price action should we get a retest over the next few sessions. Of course, another option is to wait for the pair to break consolidation first, but with a 300 pip range that may not happen for quite some time.
by Daily-Price-Action
USDJPY Eyes February Double Bottom After Breaking 113.25 SupportThe USDJPY bulls failed to hold prices above the 113.25 handle on Friday. I mentioned this level on Thursday as one that stood in the way of downside targets. With the pair now well below this mark on a weekly closing basis, any retest of 113.25 will likely encounter selling pressure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversion to this level given the fact the pair is now more than 100 pips below the mean as measured by the 10 and 20 EMAs. The February double bottom at 111.70 outlines key support for the week ahead. This is a must hold level for buyers as a daily close below it would pave the way for a move toward the 110.00 area. For now, I’ll remain on the sideline to watch what transpires if and when 113.25 gets challenged as new resistance.
by Daily-Price-Action
Dont get too excited Bulls - USDJPY DXYOverview - Sentiment immediately changed (...again... I know) from extreme bearish to excessive bullish from traders as we reverted back to the top of the channel. This is especially true in the USDJPY pair. The index and the USDJPY is still clearly in a downtrend. Unless you are eager to get ran over by the heavy weight greenback, I urge for confirmation before letting a recent upswing to cloud ones judgement. The last few weeks have been a grind of emotions with dollar bulls (myself included). With the current charting conditions, I would urge those to remain unbiased going into next weeks regardless of upcoming news. Technically Speaking - In the dollar index, we are still clearly in a downward trending channel. The bottoms we have attained since January 23rd have been successively less extreme, rising off the bottom channel. This may be the start of a new trend as we see the bottoms starting to round, however it is likely to be more of a fake-out than a trend reversal. In the past few weeks, each time the price broke above an RSI reading of 55, a sharp reversal occurred typically at the top of the channel. As you can see, we are trending just below it after a number of failed attempts to hold. Additionally, for those who are window oriented, there is still an open gap in the DXY around 99, indicated by the thin yellow box in the top chart. USDJPY Index Divergence - In a previous published idea, I mentioned that it was not a good time to have a new long entry in the USDJPY as I warned of a potential H&S that successfully played out. That was when USDJPY was trending around 115 and before it flushed under 113 that week. It is starting to look good for the pair, a double bottom, what looks to be a higher high off the most recent pulse, and price action that is diverging positive for Dollar bulls. The downward channel in USDJPY is clearly broken and it is clear that the the Yen is depreciating since January 13th when comparing the peaks and troughs. This is great for the pair, but the dollar is still in a downtrend and is likely to reverse here again in the near future and give a better entry. There is also big news this week from the BOJ and the FED that is likely to shape how the Yen and the USD behave in the following weeks. ***Being long/short the Yen pairs going through the BOJ meetings may be self-destructive if the meeting results are not up to standard. What I'd like to see - As mentioned before, this has been a slow predictable downtrend in the dollar. What I would like to see to signal a trend reversal would at least be a sharp flush to the downside followed by a sharp rejection and counter trend move. Whether that be to close the gap at 99 or not, we haven't seen this happen yet as it tends to happen before a trend reversal. The above is not investment advice for a real account, but my own trading journal that I am sharing. I am not a licensed professional and am not selling anything. Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
TVC:DXYShort
by hankle
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