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USDJPY Short time bearishFor years now Yen has been weak and USDJPY Rose 11% in the last 5 months meaning the trend is bullish . FX:USDJPY Peaked at 160 area last month then we saw some selling pressure which drove the rate to 152 zone {Last year high} Price rejection since this month open from 158 means we have some selling pressure, Today after US GDP QoQ2 release USDJPY Dropped 900 points too. I would wait to get a favorable long entry points. Areas of focus 155, 152, lowest 150. Below that the bias turns bearish mid term.
by alonso780
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Long
by bryandowningqln
The Yen's Wobble: Bank of Japan in a Policy BindThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) finds itself caught in a precarious situation as it grapples with defending the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). With global inflation on the rise and other central banks tightening monetary policy, the BOJ faces a difficult choice: intervene in the currency market or stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. The Yen's depreciation stems from a divergence in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The BOJ has stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose policy, keeping interest rates at a negative 0.1% for nearly eight years. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has begun raising rates to combat inflation. This difference in interest rates makes the US Dollar (USD) a more attractive asset for investors, leading to a decline in the Yen's value. A weakening Yen presents a double-edged sword for Japan. On the one hand, it benefits exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. However, on the other hand, a weaker Yen translates to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities like oil and gas, which are already experiencing price hikes due to global factors. This translates to a squeeze on Japanese consumers' wallets and fuels inflationary pressures domestically. The BOJ has a couple of options to address this dilemma. One option is to intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its massive war chest of over $1.2 trillion worth of US Treasuries (as of February 2024 data). This intervention would theoretically raise the value of the Yen by increasing demand for it. However, such a move is not without its risks. Selling a significant amount of US Treasuries could cause their yields, or the interest rates investors receive for holding them, to spike. This could have a ripple effect on global financial markets, potentially destabilizing them. Furthermore, Japan's intervention might be seen as futile if the underlying cause, the policy divergence with other central banks, is not addressed. The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated, with some economists arguing that it is a temporary solution at best. The other option for the BOJ is to raise interest rates. This would bring Japan more in line with other central banks and potentially make the Yen a more attractive asset for investors. However, the BOJ has been reluctant to raise rates for several reasons. One concern is that raising rates could derail Japan's fragile economic recovery. The country has struggled with deflation, or persistently falling prices, for decades, and raising rates could dampen economic activity. Additionally, many Japanese businesses and households have become accustomed to, and even dependent on, the low-interest-rate environment. Raising rates too quickly could lead to financial instability. The BOJ's decision to maintain negative interest rates at its April 26th meeting underscores this cautious approach. This decision, while expected by many analysts, further highlights the difficult balancing act the BOJ faces. The path forward for the BOJ remains uncertain. The bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates as global inflationary pressures persist. However, the timing and pace of such hikes will be crucial. The BOJ needs to find a way to defend the Yen without jeopardizing the economic recovery or causing undue financial market volatility. This situation serves as a reminder of the complex challenges central banks face in a time of global economic uncertainty.
by bryandowningqln
Hedge Funds Bet on Yen Shorts as BOJ Reiterates InterventionHedge funds are betting big against the Japanese yen, driving short positions to their highest level since April 2022. This aggressive stance comes despite warnings from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that it will intervene in the currency market again to defend the yen if necessary. The data, compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a surge in net-short yen positions held by leveraged funds. This indicates a strong belief that the yen will continue to weaken. The yen has been under pressure for months due to a widening gap between Japanese and U.S. interest rates. Why the Yen Short Bets? Several factors are contributing to the bearish sentiment on the yen: • Divergent Monetary Policy: The BOJ is maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This interest rate differential makes yen-denominated assets less attractive to investors, weakening the currency. • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened global uncertainty are driving investors towards safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar, further pressuring the yen. • Intervention Concerns: The BOJ's previous intervention in the currency market in September 2022 to weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen proved to be temporary. The market's perception is that the BOJ may not be able to sustain continued intervention efforts, leading to renewed weakness in the yen. Bank of Japan's Warning The BOJ has reiterated its commitment to defending the yen and warned of further intervention if deemed necessary. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has emphasized the bank's resolve to maintain its current monetary policy stance, even as the yen weakens. However, analysts remain skeptical of the BOJ's ability to influence long-term currency trends, especially given the strong global forces pushing the yen lower. Potential Impacts The continued decline of the yen could have several consequences: • Imported Inflation: A weaker yen makes imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation in Japan. • Corporate Profits: Export-oriented Japanese companies could benefit from a weaker yen as their products become more competitive globally. • Investor Confidence: Continued weakness in the yen could erode investor confidence in the Japanese economy. Looking Ahead The future path of the yen is uncertain. The BOJ's resolve and ability to defend the currency will be closely watched. The direction of U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions will also play a key role. With substantial short bets placed by hedge funds, the yen remains vulnerable to further depreciation. The BOJ's warnings of intervention add another layer of complexity to the situation. The coming months will be crucial in determining the fate of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Yen Traders Tread Cautiously as Japan Hints at InterventionAnxiety hangs heavy over the yen market. With the Japanese currency hovering near a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar, traders are wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. This comes as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen. The Yen's Slide: A Perfect Storm The yen's recent decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors: • Divergent Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve are aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This widening interest rate differential makes the dollar a more attractive investment compared to the yen. • Global Risk Aversion: As geopolitical tensions and concerns about a global economic slowdown escalate, investors are seeking refuge in dollar-denominated assets, further weakening the yen. • Japan's Trade Dependence: Japan relies heavily on imports for essential resources like energy and food. A weaker yen makes these imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation within Japan. Verbal Intervention: A Warning Shot Finance Minister Suzuki's recent statements can be seen as a warning shot to currency markets. He emphasized the government's "deep concern" about the yen's depreciation and hinted at the possibility of intervention if excessive volatility persists. However, the effectiveness of verbal intervention is debatable. Without concrete action, traders might remain skeptical. Intervention: A Double-Edged Sword Direct intervention in the currency market involves the Japanese government selling dollars and buying yen to artificially strengthen the currency. While this can achieve short-term results, it comes with drawbacks: • Costly Defense: Intervention can be expensive, draining Japan's foreign currency reserves. • Market Distortion: Heavy intervention can distort market forces and create uncertainty for traders. • Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of intervention depends on the size of the intervention and the broader economic backdrop. If underlying economic fundamentals favoring a weaker yen persist, intervention might have only a temporary impact. Traders on Edge: Waiting for the Next Move Yen traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode. They are closely monitoring the Japanese government's actions and statements, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, for any signs that could influence the yen's direction. The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act The future path of the yen will be determined by several factors: • The BOJ's Monetary Policy: Any change in the BOJ's stance, even a hint of a future rate hike, could strengthen the yen. However, the BOJ is expected to remain dovish for the foreseeable future. • Global Risk Sentiment: If global risk aversion eases, investors might be less inclined to seek refuge in the dollar, potentially aiding the yen. • The Effectiveness of Intervention: If Japan intervenes in the currency market and does so decisively, it might provide temporary support to the yen. Conclusion: A Fragile Currency in Uncertain Times The outlook for the yen remains uncertain. While the Japanese government may intervene to curb its rapid depreciation, the effectiveness of such strategies is limited without addressing the underlying economic factors. The future direction of the yen will likely hinge on global economic developments and the monetary policy decisions of major central banks.
by bryandowningqln
4
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar. A Perfect Storm for the Yen Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline: • Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders. • Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive. Intervention: A Looming Wildcard The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue. Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress? The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite: • Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly. • Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure. Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market: • Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government. • Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen. • Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. Disclaimer This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Yen Strengthens Following Bank of Japan InterventionThe yen has appreciated recently after the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market. This is a significant development with potential implications for the foreign exchange market. Considering Going Long on JPY? A stronger yen could be an attractive opportunity for traders looking to go long on the currency. However, it's important to conduct thorough research and consider factors like: • Market Volatility: Currency markets can be volatile, and the yen's rise may not be sustained. • Overall Investment Strategy: This move should align with your broader investment goals and risk tolerance. • Conduct Your Own Research Before making any investment decisions, research the yen's future outlook and analyze potential risks and rewards. We're Here to Help If you have any questions or would like to discuss this development further, please don't hesitate to contact us via the comments.
Short
by bryandowningqln
EURJPY I Potential intraday buy from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
Long USDJPY as Bank of Japan Raises Rates!The hedge fund industry's short weakness on the yen is creating a fantastic opportunity for us to long USDJPY! As the Bank of Japan prepares to raise rates, now is the perfect time to capitalize on this trend and potentially make some significant profits. The recent weakness in hedge fund shorts on the yen has created a favorable environment for us to take advantage of. With the Bank of Japan signaling a potential rate hike shortly, the USDJPY pair is poised for a strong upward movement. This is a golden opportunity for us to get in on the action and potentially ride the wave of a bullish trend. I urge you all to consider taking a long position on USDJPY and seize this opportunity to potentially profit from the upcoming rate hike. Don't miss out on this chance to make some serious gains in the forex market! Let's make the most of this exciting opportunity and maximize our potential profits together. Get ready to long USDJPY and ride the wave of success as the Bank of Japan raises rates! www.hedgeweek.com
Long
by bryandowningqln
GBPJPY I Bearish divergence and overbought I It will rebalanceWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
12
USDJPY I BOJ will possibly end negative interest ratesWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
10
BOJ to deliver 1st hike in 17 years tomorrow? There is possibly no bigger trading event this week than the Bank of Japan’s decision on Monday. The groundwork for abandoning negative interest rates has been subtly laid since last year, and now, this could very well be the month they choose to make their move. The prospect of ending a policy entrenched for nearly two decades could significantly move the USDJPY. The catalyzing force for the BoJ to end negative interest rates are the substantial wage hikes big corporations and their labor unions agreed on this year. On Friday, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the country's largest labor organization, disclosed that this year's annual wage negotiations produced remarkable outcomes. Major corporations witnessed an average hike of 5.28%, the largest wage increase in 33 years. Because of this, The Bank of Japan could be thinking that the current economic climate is OK for sustaining a stable 2% inflation rate in an environment without negative interest rates. Even in the eventuality of the negative rate policy ceasing, Governor Ueda has emphasized the continuity of accommodative monetary conditions. The BOJ will likely keep interest rates at zero percent. So, watch out for overreactions to this news too, and corrective moves in Yen pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
CADJPY:🟢Is it bullish...?!🟢(Details on caption) As you can see, the price took the sell-side liquidity and had a bearish reaction, in addition, we can see the price created the bullish breaker block and FVG. Now, we can expect the price to move higher to collect the buy-side liquidity, for that, it may happen from here or retrace more to a bullish order block which formed on the 50% level Fibonacci. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️01/03/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Long
by VahidTradingCR
1
USDJPY : Trend is bullish above 129.60As we can see from the chart above, the previously shared analysis hasn't changed (see chart below). From a technical point of view, we have considered the idea of a potential bullish swing developed with at least 3 legs, such as ABC for example )without excluding an impulsive structure 12345 with Target above the previous Top). Now, instead of following the pair on the weekly chart as we did previously, let's try to show the first 2 potential Target Areas: - 140.00 (Target 1) - 143.00 (Target 2) Having said that, the support still remains at 129.67 and as long as Price Action remains above, trend on daily chart is bullish. Having said that, the support still remains at 129.67 and as long as Price Action remains above, trend on daily chart is bullish. At the same time, we can follow the pair on intraday chart too, looking for closer supports that could anticipate the potential Bullish Pattern failure. ANALYSIS ON WEEKLY CHART: (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
Long
by TheAnonymousBanker
25
USDJPY I Forecast ahead of BOJ POLICY RATE 💰Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
1
GBPJPY I Impulse Correction with Caution Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
1
CHFJPY I Trading plan for 2024 ahead of BOJ Policy RateWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
2