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EURUSD BearishThe Bond Auction went well as expected that could help the Bond Yield which could underpin the Dollar. Bond Auction for the 10Y later today and expecting a Demand>Supply situation as well. EURUSD -0.13% have been ranging between 1.17xx handle and 1.16xx (Accumulation) and I am picking a downward direction if the pair attempts to expand its range for September. Last week Weekly range is my target if price could make a pullback and gives me a Bearish Engulfing candle around the pivot area around London open or 1-2 hours before that also fine.
Short
by sufiansaid
1
FVX 5 Year Treasury Yield: Longer Term Outlook for RatesFVX Longer Term Outlook for Rates Since Yellen retired in February FVX has risen to test the the junction of the upper parallel at the same point in time as it hit the fixed resistance line at 29.83. Since then it's been consolidating inside a slowly forming pennant formation with a spike down to the 25.46 line almost exactly before it pushed higher again. Though it's likely to spend some more time messing inside the pennant, eventually the upper parallel is going to give way leading a spurt higher to 37.22 and then after consolidating some more should beat 37.22 and push higher to 52.39. That's the most likely stopping point for interest rates from that point - until wage inflation pops even higher, forcing the Fed to follow long again on rates, whether the President approves or not.
FLong
by sumastardon
1
Dividend yield hints at new lows, indicating market crashThe dividend yield (DY) is simply the amount of money a company pays a shareholder in dividends divided by the share price. It's therefore a measure of value for a stock. A DY < 1 would mean that the shares cost more to by than the shareholder receives in dividends, therefore extremely overvalued. In a bear market, the DY increases very fast. During a bull market it decreases. At crashes the DY forms a low. Crashes of course happen when markets are at new highs. Like other metrics, the DY hints that stocks are at an important level. it shows that the market is still very overvalued despite the 2008 crash. If the indicated support is lost it is likely we will move towards another market crash.
M
by RealMcafee
Bonds Remain IrrationalRegarding today's bond market behavior, I am reminded of the following words of wisdom mostly attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." From Trump's successful efforts in negotiating an end to a 70 year North/South Korean war, and denuclearization of NoKo, to the Fed raising interest rates hawkishly, to the ECB finally declaring an end to QE, everything seemed to support the bond market collapsing further. My original profit target in ZN1! was right about where the red arrow is. I anticipated it to retrace the entire move from the FOMC meeting. Perhaps it is because the bond market is historically bearish. Perhaps it is because big players are cashing out of their net short positions, or because insiders know something we don't, but US treasuries have stabilized and have formed a range, if not a bull flag. The Kovach Indicators (at the bottom) show a solid bullish trend, and we have broken numerous levels of resistance. Perhaps we need more data events like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, or Consumer Sentiment tomorrow to help this sleeping giant awaken once more.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
4
2018 SPX earnings yield The SPX volatility so far this year shows some uncertainty over 'fair value'. Based on 2018 earnings estimates from Factset of 160 earnings/share for the SPX, if we divide 160 by the current SPX price the chart reflects what's known as the 'earnings yield'. Shown inversely it is known as the forward P/E ratio. So far this year the SPX earnings yield has ranged over 60 basis points between extremes of 5.6% and 6.2%. The 50 day average currently suggests an equilibrium of approximately 6% earnings yield for 2018.
SP:SPX
by dime
2
SPY following giant descending triangleAMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As investors are buying more bonds for safety the yield increases and we passed the 3.0% yield today which carries a psychological importance as well (e.g 8 years ago it was 3.9%). Adding political and global uncertainties to this created a market that is much more easily spooked compared to Jan'18. See CBOE:VIX The critical resistance for the S&P 500 index is at 2580. If we break lower the chances are that mutual fund managers technical analysts are going to advice : "sell, sell, sell". NASDAQ:TLT NASDAQ:IGOV AMEX:TLH CBOE:TNX If we do break the 2580
AMEX:SPY
by Call_the_bottom
Not all bonds are declining!EMLC has just experienced a bullish breakout of a wedge pattern. That occurred above support (23.6% retracement of all-time high to all-time low), which lends to the bullish slant. It's also recently tested and held a rising channel bottom and had a bullish breakout in the RSI, further strengthening the bullish setup. Volume has been robust and accelerating, as well, suggesting conviction in the move higher. As rates rise, bonds will obviously fall in value. However, that's not the case everywhere. EMLC primarily owns emerging market government debt (>96% of holdings), along with a few corporate bonds. It invests in debts in the local currency, which reduces exchange rate risks. It has vastly outperformed US government debt with a 1-year return of +11.2%. Compare that to SHY, IEI, IEF, and TLT 1-year returns of -0.1%, -0.41%, -0.54%, and +3.0%, respectively. Not only is the fund experiencing price appreciation, but it also offers a 5.3% dividend via monthly distributions. This is a great place to park cash and achieve some return while market turbulence and volatility prevail. I'm a buyer at current levels, with an intermediate term target of $20.81, the 38.2% retracement.
AMEX:EMLCLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
BX - Looking for yield? Covered short straddle on Blackstone!THE DAWN OF ASSET MANAGERS As discussed towards the end of last year, 2018 should be the year of the brokers and asset managers (please watch related ideas below). In this context, and with a dividend yield of 6.36%, BX is probably one of the best asset management pure-plays out there. The trend has been strong on all time frames and the stock is attempting a breakout as we speak. But how to play it in the current top-ish market environment? There is a smarter way than a simple outright buy. LOOK FOR YIELD AND ENHANCE IT WITH OPTIONS 1. Buy the stock in a half size which makes sense to your strategy or portfolio at $34.91 (last close) 2. Sell one-year $40 OTM CALL and pocket $1.39 (indicative) 3. Sell one-year $32 OTM PUT and pocket $2.66 (indicative) COMPELLING RISK AND YIELD ANALYSIS At expiration of the options, in one year, one of the below should happen. 1. The stock is range-bound ($32-40): Stay long the stock and pocket (call premium + put premium + dividend yield) = 3.98% + 7.62% + 6.36% = 17.96% 2. The stock breaks out and trades above $40: Deliver the shares at $40 and pocket (capital gain + dividend yield + call premium + put premium) = 14.58% + 6.36% +3.98% + 7.62% = 32.54% 3. The stock breaks down and trades below $32: Receive the shares and end up with a full position at an average price of $33.45 while you pocket (dividend yield + call premium + put premium) = 6.36% + 3.98% + 7.62% = 17.96% . All the while, you become long one of the best asset managers in the world with an improved dividend yield >10%. THIS STRATEGY CAN BE ROLLED OUT WITH ANY TIME HORIZON (MONTHLY, QUARTERLY, SEMI-ANUALLY). COMMENTS WELCOME.
NYSE:BXLong
by HAL9000