60/40 is the popular investment strategy that has gone terribly wrong to the international investors. If any it might turn out to be the third year in row. While the liquidity is pouring in the bonds (safety?), the bets for yields fall is coming down. The recent up-move of USD is anything but a factor of another 25 basis point move higher in terms of cost. Not...
Going 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's...
It's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields. The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability. BUT The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes. We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens. Soft landing, economy slowly recovers OR Lower...
The 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is...
Akropolis printed a shooting star deviation and seems likely to retrace down to 100EMA support, especially with that overbought RSI. ⚡️⚡️ #AKRO/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Short) Leverage: Isolated (2.6X) Amount: 4.9% Current Price: 0.018692 Entry Targets: 1) 0.019243 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.013254 Stop Targets: 1)...
Vix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized. the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew. In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for...
Hey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in AMD, the popular semiconductor company that often plays second fiddle to Nvidia (NVDA). Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on AMD shares. In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens. Either; A.) The stock price...
The 3 & 6Month #yield look similar. The 3M looks just a tad better. The 1 & 2Y ear look very similar RECENTLY. However, the 1Yr is higher than the #BankingCrisis highs. The 10Y TVC:TNX gave a lot back but it's @ support here. Could have some sort of bounce here. But the most interesting chart is of the TVC:DXY US #Dollar. It looks like it wants to bounce...
#Bond #yield has been moving well lately, but today. SO FAR, they're rolling over, and some hurting more than others. We've mentioned that steam has been running out for some time. Look @ the RSI negative divergence on almost all of the #yields 6M weakening. 1Yr RSI CRATERING. 2YR hurting & RSI DECIMATED It is at major support. TVC:TNX is the lone wolf. Must...
Cocoa continued its upward price trajectory, rising 3% over the prior month (22 May to 23 June 2023). The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has corrected its forecast for the supply deficit on the cocoa market in the current crop year up from 60,000 tonnes to 142,000 tonnes as production is expected to be lower and grinding higher than previously expected....
The consensus is LOWER #interestrates (I mean, they have been around 3.2ish) Every time the 10Yr #yield was in this same situation it FOLDED. Easier to see on daily. However, something looks lil different this time around. Can't make it out on the daily. Let's see the weekly chart. Hmmm... Not yet, but gaining momentum... If the 10 Yr yield starts pumping this...
🚨🚨🚨 Going to make a stink about #yield again. Short term #interestrates have been creeping higher. Let's👀@ #bond Yields. 6M = holding steady, trading slightly higher. BUT, 1Yr = BROKE RECENT HIGHS. It's at resistance but shows momentum. 2Yr = Closing in on TSX:SVB closure high. This is where #banks began to break down. 10Yr TVC:TNX @ current downtrend is...
Yellow arrows show the #bank crisis. Short term #yields are higher or at the same level. They are showing signs of wanting to push higher again. The 2Yr is lower & looks as if it's curling a bit higher. The TVC:TNX or 10Yr is consistently lower & looks to be weakening. Wall St may finally be listening to #Fed & more hikes coming.
Short term #yield is still weakening The 3M & 6M peaked not long ago & been going lower. The 1Yr & 2Yr are holding area when the #banks began to fail. The 10Yr peaked Oct 2022, last year. TVC:TNX has been lower & looks 2b headed lower at the moment. We'll see what the #FederalReserve does but Wall St thinks #fed is done with rates or @ CLOSE to the end of hikes
🚨🚨🚨#yields🚨🚨🚨 3M + 6M have been weak lately, we called them topping some time ago. Will they turn soon? 1Y trading at recent highs and seems like it is trying to go higher. 2Yr looks like it wants to the recent test highs. 10Yr TVC:TNX peaked LONG ago! Breaks white line, downtrend, likely trades higher. Inverted yield curve thing of past? #bonds #tech ...
US #Dollar took hit recently, recuperating We called this pump while most were negative Certainly broke the small recent uptrend it was in NOW WHAT?! RSI shows it's most likely going to some sideways action BUT BUT BUT LOOK WEEKLY chart shows it may be in Head & Shoulder Pattern - bearish If #yield continues to rise so will TVC:DXY BUT, how high can they go...
6 Month is still pumping & more overbought. This is the only one still moving higher atm. Serious divergence! 1Y surpassed the #bank collapse highs . 2Yr Stopped 50bps away from highs. 10Yr forming lower highs (the top was put in LAST YEAR), down channel & the long trend has been broken.
🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bonds