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Short to C wave, but im a buyer of the DipsI'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the yield rising as the price of TLT declines . I see the dividend yield potentially rising to 4% , that would be an outstanding monthly yield for long term holders. You can also sell puts here, or calls to generate revenue. Long term buyer, and Call writer (which will lower my cost basis, and return use the upfront premium to buy more shares of this etf, further increasing the yield and dividends)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by moneyflow_trader
How will markets react to rising yield and dollar?Moving averages can be applied to many things, from stocks and currencies to fitness measures and crop harvests. Here, the candles show US10Y is finding support off the 200ma, after making a significant decline. The 20ma (blue) and 50ma (dark blue) will indicate the yield's next trend as they separate. The green line graph shows a serious decline in the U.S. dollar. As the orange short-term trendline shows, it may be ready to move a little higher. The yield and dollar may not rise back to the highs, but they definitely can move up for a bounce in the near term. If the recent relationship continues, then this would create selling pressure for global and tech stocks while giving another lift to defensive sectors. Here's a little-known fact to watch out for: Starting in January, a new formula is being used to calculate CPI (consumer price index) data. The first release of this will be in February and the numbers are expected to increase relative to Dec. data. The new calculation will update spending weights annually (using one year's data) instead of biennally. Thus be alert to the possibility that markets react negatively to a high Jan. CPI, as the majority now think prices are coming down. On the flip side if CPI is in-line or lower even with the new formula, then markets will get quite a lift. www.federalregister.gov
TVC:US10Y
by OptionsRising
2
2Yr Yield creeping up slowly$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are now NEUTRAL. EDIT: Keep in mind that in BULL MARKETS items can remain OVERBOUGHT for long periods of time.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$JPY - Where to next?$YEN - Where to next? Well, we are coming into the end of yr but we still have opportunities we could get. Now be careful we will get end of year moves, portfolio adjustment etc. However, the way I trade I look at key support & resistance levels we have a very important zone of support: 136 half - 135 now break below that - BEARS come out shorter term. BUT If price stays above, I think we have a good chance those bulls are still in control and we are going back towards 140 areas easily. Now that's my plan minus risk and how I will take my profits - But it's a plan. What's going to be your trade plan for $YEN? Data wise: PMIs Have a great weekend, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for the Federal ReserveIn recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. This can be a cause for concern because it can indicate that investors are expecting economic growth to slow in the future. When investors expect the economy to slow, they are less likely to lend money for long periods of time, leading to higher interest rates on short-term bonds and lower interest rates on long-term bonds. The current yield curve inversion has many experts worried. In the past, an inverted yield curve has often been a reliable predictor of a recession. In fact, every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. One reason for the current inversion may be the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates several times in recent years in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating. However, these rate hikes may have had the unintended consequence of slowing economic growth. Despite the potential risks, experts believe that the current yield curve inversion may not be as concerning as it seems. They argue that other factors, such as the strong job market and low unemployment rate, suggest that the economy is still in good shape. In the end, only time will tell if the bond market's concerns are justified. However, the Federal Reserve will need to closely monitor the situation and be prepared to take action if necessary to prevent a potential recession.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by JoelWarby
2
Soxs is the ticket out of povertyDefended support, on high volume, trendline support, Capitulation already took place, inverse head and shoulders break, semis are overpriced and garbage again after 40% rally. Come with me as we milk this one last time into vix 45 If this market keeps going up slowly or continues consolidating I will keep adding 3month and 10 year yields are inverted like hell and people are buying 2000 pe stocks into a recession god help us all The fact that Bitcoin still has buyers sickens me
AMEX:SOXSLong
by Okbronpbro