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10yr with MOVE What does this show? The Move Index, indicates the volts within the bond market, yield movement is an important factor that everyone should keep in mind, even if you don't trade the asset. Now, this is more of an advance level: Fixed-Income division: As we all know, volts has been up, it's been like 🥢 is what I call this market when it comes to US indices, I use it as hedge just like I use the VIX with ES. We all know we are in a bear market it's very different to what we experience in the pandemic there are major shifts have occurred and will be occurring for the months and years ahead. What does this mean for Bond market? Well, due to inflation pressures globally, dxy heads higher, but most markets I trade is US bonds we have inverted when it comes to yields 2/10yr to negative state... What does this mean? Simply we may have stagflation or recession heading in next 18-24 months. Now sure, that could head earlier into that, inflation figures are at record highs, GDP figures getting questionable and let me tell you something it's hurting us as consumers no matter what country you are in, I'm sure in UK residences you'd had a your energy bills - lovely weren't they (Sarcasm). Take a look at history of cycles, and actually last time china came into help but I don't think they will this time but this cycle is obviously different but a change is yet to come further. This is explained in-depth in the week ahead videos, but most importantly - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! It's so important to test various tools out in trading and see what suits you personally best. There is no one set way of trading, we all got various different plans. I have been using the MOVE index with 2/10/30yrs and it's been working out great, just little tip for you guys on how many great metrics there are out there that can help make you make investment decisions. Those groups I am part of know what trades I am part of . Next great move will be coming as we have had Feds minutes, Hawkish but we also have had plenty of Fed speakers and now we could rally even more 50 basis hikes and most of it is priced in as market is forward looking...Now don't forget higher dollar, the yen another currency pair that was great to be looking out on, housing market🎈, credit spreads, think about EM market! Things are going to get even more interesting! Stay tuned Hope this in-depth analysis helps you. Best wishes, Trade Journal
TVC:US10Y
by Trade_Journal
Recession warning on S&P500?The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 . On Thu Mar 31st , the yield curve showed a possible warning signal that a recession could be happen at anytime, but the curve needs to stay inverted for a substantial amount of time before it gives a valid signal. People get excited about the yield curve because, historically it has been a good predictor of the onset of recession. Against a backdrop of searing inflation, Russia’s War in Ukraine and a commodity shock, the relentless flattening of the yield curve and its predictive qualities has market watchers on edge. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the odds of a U.S. recession as high as 35% in the next year, while Grant Thornton’s Diane Swonk sees the twin blow of Fed tightening and higher oil prices potentially tipping the economy into a recession. The yield curve may serve Economists more than Investors, the key factor in the yield curve inversion is that, while it can often forecast darker days ahead for the economy, it is NOT a sell signal for those who invest in stocks
SP:SPXShort
by ctrl_
2
LUNA/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishLUNA/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio 35% LUNA, 65% cash. Price is currently testing $92.78 minor support for a third consecutive session as the 50 MA is slowly moving up (currently at $89.80). Volume remains low and ended up closing yesterday in the green, breaking the 4 day selling streak. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $116.50. RSI remains trending down at 46 as it approaches a formal test of the descending trendline from August 2021 at 44. Stochastic remains bearish at 3.50 and is currently forming a trough in an attempt for a bullish crossover. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 3.32 support with no signs of trough formation. ADX continues to trend down at 26 as Price faces selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to establish support at $92.78, then it will likely retest $100-$102.60. However, if Price breaks down here, then it will likely retest the 50 MA (at $89.70) before potentially retesting $84.05 support. *Occasional fundamental analysis on my Twatter*
L
by dailytaguy
SNX Still Strong But Outside Upper Keltner Utilizing the Keltner Channels, we can see SNX got a little too far out over its skis. I put an orange circle around where the SNX price action stepped outside of the upper Keltner Channel. I knew it couldn't last forever, but I was hoping for a little softer re-entry. Meanwhile, all is still well. The median-line projected shows that SNX will still be in the upper strong side of the channel so long as it bounces before we get to that $6.36 mark. If we slide to the lower side of the channel, that could be a negative trend. We (long-term holders of SNX) don't want that. Bottom line: I am looking for SNX to bounce before we hit the median line. I expect continued positive price action going forward. If you like this idea, please read my other ideas or comment below. Thanks! -Garry
COINBASE:SNXUSDLong
by tg-l
SNX Today's bullish chart and useless predictionsFull disclosure: I am a long-term HODLer of compounding Synthetix Network Tokens (SNX). I firmly believe in the project and platform which is making an ever-increasing number of assets (crypto, FOREX, Commodities, Stocks, etc) available for decentralized trade (derivatives, futures, shorts, etc) without the traditional barriers and gatekeepers. With lower fees, greater yield opportunities, built-in token utility and token scarcity, it is hard not to be excited. Now, for what I see in chart-land and my useless prediction. I see $7.50 acting as support. If SNX can hold, there is relatively little historical retracement resistance until we approach $12. I do expect SNX to set new ATH (All-time-high) fairly soon, but we might see a pull pack if SNX screams too quickly toward the next resistance around $12. So, did I really predict anything you can't read in the chart. No. Useless prediction? Maybe...but I might be the voice in the dark you needed to hear to keep hodling or buying. Be sure to check my other published ideas on SNX to get caught up (or to read how I add almost 8 SNX tokens per week without staking or lifting a finger). If you have any questions or comments, please share. Thanks!--Garry
BINANCE:SNXUSDLong
by tg-l
SNX: Breakout above $7.50 could see doubling to next resistanceDisclosure: I am a long-view SNX HODLer. This is not financial advice. This is simply my opinion and how I apply it to my own assets. 1 April 2022- My views on the current bullish SNX action: As SNX has blasted more than 100% up from its recent lows, it has now established $7 as its potential support level and it is nearing the next SUPER IMPORTANT resistance level at $7.50. Volume has been good, ever increasing. The project and platform finally has firm footing, momentum and is firing on all cylinders. And if SNX rises above this $7.50 level, I see the next major resistance as double from here! DOUBLE! 100% from here! Take a look at the chart. If you like this idea, please check out my other ideas on SNX for more information on the token, the project and how to earn high APY on SNX the easy way.
BINANCE:SNXUSDLong
by tg-l
$AAVE/USDT 3D (#BinanceFutures) Falling wedges on supportAave is looking bottomed here on High Time-Frame (HTF) and is very likely to bounce back on historical demand zone. Current Price= 132.77 Buy Entry= 131.50 - 117.30 Take Profit= 169.60 | 220.18 | 275.84 Stop Loss= 93.45 Risk/Reward= 1:1.46 | 1:3.09 | 1:4.89 Expected Profit= +36.33% | +76.99% | +121.74% Possible Loss= -24.88% Fib. Retracement= 0.236 | 0.441 | 0.618 Margin Leverage= 1x Estimated Gain-time= 6 months Tags: #AAVE #AAVEUSDT #Yield #Farming #Lending #Governance #DAO #DeFi #BSC #SolEco Website: aave.com Contracts: #ERC20 0x7Fc66500c84A76Ad7e9c93437bFc5Ac33E2DDaE9 #BEP20 0xfb6115445bff7b52feb98650c87f44907e58f802 #AVAXC 0x8ce2dee54bb9921a2ae0a63dbb2df8ed88b91dd9 #SPL 3vAs4D1WE6Na4tCgt4BApgFfENbm8WY7q4cSPD1yM4Cg #Fantom 0x6a07A792ab2965C72a5B8088d3a069A7aC3a993B #Polygon 0xd6df932a45c0f255f85145f286ea0b292b21c90b
Long
by TradingOn
2
T10Y2Y Yield Inversion Briefly Occurred on Mar 29 and T10Y3M TBCHistorically, yield curve inversion had always predicated a future recession. Normally, both FRED:T10Y2Y and T10Y3M require inversions and T10Y3M is yet to invert. Historically, in the event both yield curves invert, the recession came in a delayed phase of 7-24 months from the curves invert. What this means for the market is, at least in the short- to mid-term, the market is set up to stay bullish. Unless there is a significant negative surprise from geopolitical conflicts, unexpectedly high CPI prints the reversal trend we observe is set to maintain in the next coming months. Particularly, AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ are reaching previous highs and I'm eyeing on these indices to see if they reach and surpass that level. It would be wise to elevate your news gauge on global events, commodity prices, economic data releases. Remember, recession arrives when nobody expects it to arrive.
FRED:T10Y3MLong
by JDS_6ix
SNX BREAKOUT; $6 surpassed! Will it act as support? I think so!Full disclosure: I am a HODLer of the Synthetix Network Token (SNX). I transferred over 2700 tokens to Celsius Network on 31 July 2021 where I was receiving 13.99% APY at the time. They have since increased the yield to 14.05% APY, paying out every Monday like clockwork. Trade View will not allow me to advertise my referral code for Celsius here, but I do have one if you message me. Now, for what has me so excited about today's chart. We just broke through $6. If SNX can hold above that level perhaps even retesting it as support, I think we may see SNX take off. I added the "auto pitchfork" visual to give you an idea of what I hope to see happen. This derivatives project is sound, the token is necassary to conduct business on its platform and the token has scarcity on its side that lends to an upside of somewhere in the $50 to $100 per token range... if the inflated dollar doesn't continue to crash from here. If the USD does continue to collapse, it will further enhance crypto price action in our favor as people seek other sectors (crypto) to store value. Sidenote: I now have over 3012 SNX tokens thanks to the power of compounding at Celsius Network. I don't have to hassle with swap defi platforms, high ETH gas-fees, or delegating, validating or staking in general. I just watch it grow every Monday. If you wish to do the same with your SNX (or 40-plus other cryptos), we can both earn $50 worth of BTC when you open an account using my referral code and move $400 worth of crytpo to Celsius and hold for 30 days. And you will have your own referral code you can share with your friends once you have an account.
BINANCE:SNXUSDLong
by tg-l
Part 1) Don't Fight The Fed with 30 Year Interest Rate Target.There's an apparent "reverse head & shoulders pattern" on the Monthly 30 Year Yield Chart. The implication of the broken neckline is a reversal of the previous downtrend. Dow theory teaches us that the minimum upside target is the depth of the neckline to the peak of the "head." I see potential resistance at the downward resistance trendline and then again at the previous swing high. If the trend breaks back below the neckline then the whole pattern is suspect. If the reversal is legit then we can suggest the time frame to reach the target would be the width of the "head & shoulders" along the neckline. In this instance the chart is suggesting we get to the price target in about three years give or take. Thoughts?
TVC:US30Y
by Breakout_Charts
HEX/USD's Next Big Move?!After failing to respect an inverted head and shoulder pattern, HEx has seen lows of 0.10 cents in the past few weeks. Now, we are seeing it push aggressively towards 0.20 cents. This chart will help us understand the way price action is playing out. Currently, I have no expectations for Hex price. The fact is, with only 40% of all Hex being liquid and 60% locked up between stakers and the PLSX, we can be in for a rocket straight to the moon after breaking all time high's and jumping into price discovery.
Long
by ProfessorSender
1
The recent pullback in SITC share price seems overdone.SITC International Holdings Company Limited (1308). Price 25/3/2022: HKD 27.65 SITC is a US$10 billion market cap transport and logistics company, quoted in Hong Kong, doing business (i.e. shipping goods), from China 39%, South East Asia 31.2% and Japan 24.8%. They have 96 vessels delivering to 74 ports, including ports in Russia. Shipping and logistics companies typically trade at a discount to the general market due to the uncertainties of world trade. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added to these uncertainties. All companies, shipping companies included, not only have to adhere to the sanctions, but also have to contend with the additional difficulties incurred when dealing in non-sanctioned goods. These include problems with payments for goods (money transfers) and reputation risk. This week's heavy fall in the SITC share price no doubt was triggered by these uncertainties. Given the solid fundamentals of SITC, the fall seems over-done. Good Fundamentals Low Price Earnings ratio (6.47e), High yield (11.3%e), Growing turnover (+78.8% yoy, +19%f). High margin (43% e). Improving analyst forecasts Analysts have been improving their forecasts of the current year(2022) earnings per share (EPS). In September 2021 the forecast was around US$0.37, by December 2021 it was around US$0.40. By the end of February 2022 analysts had increased their forecast EPS to US$0.50. On 7th March 2022, SITC announced its full year 31/12/2021 results showing sales up 78%, and Earnings per share tripled. In the following days analysts raised their forecast of the 2022 EPS to $US0.59. Sound financial situation The financial position seems sound with current assets of $1.18 billion (including cash of $919 million), exceeding current liabilities of $785 million. Long term liabilities are modest at $415 million and are nearly covered by the net current assets. Too cheap Most stocks quoted in Hong Kong are trading at a significant discount to the rest of the world. Whilst the reasons for under-weighting China and Hong Kong are well known, the question is how much discount is too much? With a prospective p/e ratio of 6.47x, a dividend yield in double digits, and solid forecast growth, SITC seems rather cheap. That's why I am buying some shares.
HKEX:1308Long
by Clive_Thompson
Call trade idea - GLD will rise if 10yr yield dropsFor now the yield is still inversely correlated with gold price. Yield may start falling again along with markets and if so then gold will rise. I bought 14Apr 182 calls. Stop loss suggestions based on 30m chart are 180.15, 179.70, 179. Technically, green rectangles show a possible double dip RSI test at 50. If this holds and goes back up, it is usually a strong price move indicator. Yellow dotted lines show price can hold this support around 180 and move back up to 186, though I think it can rise sharply and approach highs again. Stochastic lines show a good place to enter swing calls with low risk. %D should stay over 20.
AMEX:GLDLong
by OptionsRising
1
Much talk about yields inverting - for beginnersThis simple line graph shows weekly yields of 10yr (white), 2yr (aqua), and 3mo (blue). For a period in 2019 (oval) the 3mo stayed over the 10yr and many experts use this as a recession forecaster. Others use the 2yr and 10yr, which inverted at the red arrow in Aug. 2019. Historically a recession comes about 2yrs after the inversion indicator. It is probable that Covid put a pause on a full U.S. recession because the Fed/gov stepped in to support the economy through the pandemic. This may also mean that if/when a recession comes it may hit harder. The oval on right leaves us wondering if the 10yr yield will soon fall below the 2yr. Every bull cycle eventually switches to a bear cycle... and the U.S. economy is past due for one. The application of this possible (or likely, according to some experts) recession is to prepare now. Learn how to protect your money in a recession. Take profits on high return investments if you do not want to give it all back. Take steps now to reduce the potential impact of a potential recession. Start planning for new investments to buy (when everyone wants to sell). The good news is that if there is no recession you will probably be well prepared to make your next financial moves.
TVC:US10Y
by OptionsRising
10
US10yrs-US03yrs : cautious territoryUS Curve is pricing some kind of slowdown (specially due to higher inflation than expected) As you can see the 10yrs US yields- 3yrs and close to 0.00% Due i expect more escalation of Russian War, not just against Ukraine, also against Moldova and Georgia. The conflict will continue for many months causing a potential global recession. Central banks may have to reduce interest rates increase steps (for example FED or ECB). ECB may have to increase rates just 25 bp but in 2023 not at the end of 2022. Stay tuned. I expect wild volatility over 50-70% Regards, Potential downside for SP500: 3,800 points april-may 2022
TVC:US10Y
by PACDealer