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Yieldfutures

Trump's Impact on Interest Rates: Higher Rates Ahead?After Trump’s decisive win on November 6th, Bitcoin, the USD, and yields (or interest rates) moved higher. In fact, these markets began moving upward in September, more than a month before Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States. We will study the direction of interest rates based on the actual market sentiment as reflected in U.S. bond yields. 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
2
3 Standard Deviation Setup on Micro 10-Year Yield FuturesIntroduction The Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract has caught the attention of many traders recently, as its price action reached the upper 3 standard deviation of the Bollinger Band® in the daily time frame. This rare occurrence presents a potential mean reversion setup, where the price could revert back toward its historical average. This article explores what mean reversion is, why it matters in trading, and how the 3 standard deviation Bollinger Bands® setup may indicate an opportunity to short this market. We’ll also discuss key price levels, contract specifications, and a potential trade setup for shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. What is Mean Reversion in Trading? Mean reversion is a trading concept based on the idea that asset prices fluctuate around a central value or mean over time. When prices move too far away from this mean, they often correct or revert back toward that average. This is particularly useful in markets that experience high volatility or extreme price movements, as those extremes tend to reverse at some point. In simple terms, mean reversion strategies involve selling (or shorting) assets when they are significantly above their historical average, with the expectation that prices will return to normal levels. Conversely, buying when prices are significantly below the mean can also be a valid strategy. The 3 Standard Deviation Bollinger Band® Setup Bollinger Bands® are a popular technical indicator used to measure volatility and price extremes. The bands are plotted a certain number of standard deviations away from a moving average. The further away prices move from the average, the more extreme the movement. Reaching the upper 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® is a rare occurrence that suggests extreme overbought conditions. Historically, when an asset reaches this level, the likelihood of a price pullback increases, as market participants may see it as an unsustainable level. In the case of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, the recent rally has pushed prices to this rare zone, setting the scene for a potential mean reversion. Key Price Levels and Resistance Zones As the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures price approaches extreme levels, there are two key resistance zones which traders should be aware of: 4.174-4.021. These levels represent areas where selling pressure might intensify, pushing prices down and aiding in the mean reversion process. Traders looking to capitalize on this potential mean reversion setup can consider initiating short positions within this resistance range. These resistance zones act as psychological and technical barriers, providing an opportunity for traders to place their entries. Additionally, these levels help to manage risk, as they define a clear area to set stop-loss orders just above the upper resistance. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Understanding the specifications of the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract is crucial for traders looking to execute any trade. Here are some of the key details: Tick Size: The minimum price fluctuation is 0.001, which equates to $1 per tick. Margin Requirements: Margin requirements vary. Currently, the initial margin for Micro Yield Futures is around $320 per contract, making it accessible to a wide range of traders. Check with your broker for specific margin amounts. This knowledge is essential in calculating potential profit and loss in dollar terms, as well as determining the appropriate position size based on your available margin. Trade Setup Example Let’s now move on to a practical trade setup based on the discussed conditions. Entry Point: Shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures within the resistance range between 4.174 and 4.021. Stop Loss: A stop should be placed just above the upper resistance, say around 4.175, to protect against further price appreciation. Target: The target for this mean reversion trade would be around the mean of 3.750, where prices are expected to revert based on historical behavior. Reward-to-Risk Calculation: If a short entry is made at 4.021, with a stop at 4.175 (154 basis points risk) and a target at 3.750 (271 ticks potential gain), the reward-to-risk ratio would be approximately 1.76:1. A higher entry point closer to the upper resistance at 4.174 would significantly improve the reward-to-risk ratio, but it also increases the likelihood of missing the entry if the market reverses before reaching that level. In dollar terms, each tick (0.001) is worth $1, so the 154-tick stop loss represents a risk of $154 loss per contract, while the potential reward of 271 ticks equates to $271 worth of gains per contract. Risk Management Considerations Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, especially in futures trading. While the 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® setup provides a compelling case for mean reversion, it's essential to manage risk carefully to avoid significant losses. Stop-Loss Orders: A well-placed stop-loss is crucial to protect against unexpected market moves. In this case, placing the stop above the resistance zone (around 4.175) ensures that risk is controlled if the market continues to rally instead of reversing. Position Sizing: Given the volatility of futures contracts, it is important to adjust position sizes according to the trader’s risk tolerance and available margin. Overleveraging can lead to large losses if the market moves against the trade. Moving Averages Can Shift: It’s important to remember that the moving average (the mean) can change as new data comes in. While the target is currently around 3.744, this level may adjust over time, so traders need to monitor the mean as the trade progresses (which is why we have set the target to initially be slightly higher at 3.750). Resistances as Reinforcements: The resistance zone between 4.174 and 4.021 can act as reinforcements to the mean reversion. Traders should observe price behavior at these levels to confirm rejection signals before entering the trade. Conclusion In conclusion, the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures contract presents a unique trading opportunity as it has reached the rare 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band® on the daily time frame. This extreme price level indicates potential overbought conditions, making it a candidate for mean reversion back to the mean at approximately 3.750. The trade setup involves shorting within the resistance range, with a well-defined stop and target, and offers a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. However, as always, caution is advised, and traders should manage risk effectively using stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
FOMC Showdown Poised to Ignite a Surge in Yield SpreadsWith inflation finally cooling and the Fed signaling rate cuts, it seems relief is on the horizon—until you look at the job market. As recession risks grow and Treasury yields falter, a steepening yield curve presents a compelling opportunity. Positioning in the yield curve ahead of the FOMC meeting offers a more measured way to navigate the uncertainty. COOLING CPI SIGNALS GREEN LIGHT FOR RATE CUTS This week’s inflation report showed headline CPI cooling to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021. With this release, inflation has finally fallen decisively below the stubborn 3% mark and is now just 0.5% above the Fed’s target range. PCE inflation reflects similar levels, likely giving the Fed the signal to start cutting rates. JOB MARKET REPRESENTS MATERIAL RECESSION RISKS Recent job market data suggests it may be too soon to declare a soft landing. The labor market is significantly weakening, and with household savings dwindling and credit delinquencies increasing, conditions may worsen before improving. U.S. economic data from the past week indicates that the labor market is in a precarious situation. The August JOLTS report showed job openings dropping to their lowest since early 2021, reflecting decreased labor demand, while unemployment edged up slightly. Additionally, the August jobs report revealed a modest gain of 142,000 non-farm jobs, falling short of expectations, with downward revision for July bringing those figures down to just 89,000. As covered by Mint Finance previously a recession is likely to lead to a sharp steepening of the yield curve. We covered average levels of the yield spread at the start of recessions in detail previously, but in summary with the current 10Y-2Y spreads at 15 basis points, there may be up to 85 basis points of further upside in the spread. TREASURY YIELD PERFORMANCE Despite a short recovery following the ominous jobs report on 2/August, Treasury yields have continued to decline. Unsurprisingly, short-dated treasuries have underperformed as 2Y yields are 27 basis points lower, while 30Y yields have only declined by 12 basis points and 10Y by 15 basis points. Overlaying yield performance with economic releases, the largest impact on yields over the last few months has been from FOMC releases and non-farm payrolls while performance around CPI releases has been mixed. Potentially suggesting traders are more concerned about recession risk than moderating inflation. OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER FOMC MEETING Source: CME FedWatch FedWatch currently suggests that a 25 basis point rate cut is more likely in the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled on September 17/18. However, probabilities of a 50 basis point rate cut are also relatively high at 43%. Source: CME FedWatch While the odds of a 25 basis point cut have remained in majority, the 50 basis point cut has been uncertain with probability shifting over the past week. FOMC meetings have driven a rally in yield spreads over the past year. With FOMC meeting slated for next week, it is interesting to note that performance in yield spread prior to meetings has been more compelling than performance post-FOMC meeting. Over the last 5 meetings, pre-FOMC meetings, the 10Y-2Y spread has increased by 4 basis points. Performance is even more compelling in the 30Y-2Y spread which has increased by an average of 13 basis points. AUCTION DEMAND FAVORS 10Y Recent auction for 10Y treasuries indicated strong demand with a bid/cover ratio of 2.64, which is higher than the average over the last 10 auctions of 2.45. Contrastingly, the 30Y auction was less positive with a bid/cover ratio of 2.38, below the average of 2.42. 2Y auction was sharply weaker with a bid/cover of 2.65 compared to average of 2.94. Auction uptake suggests higher demand for 10Y treasuries than 30Y treasuries and fading demand for near-term 2Y treasuries. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Recent economic data has made an upcoming rate cut nearly certain. However, the size of the cut remains unclear. CME FedWatch currently indicates a 42% probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut, driven by the recent CPI report and weak jobs data. With rising recession risks, the Fed might opt for a larger rate cut. However, if they choose a moderate 25-basis-point cut, market sentiment could stabilize. Historically, yield spreads around FOMC meetings suggest that positioning before the meetings tends to be more advantageous than after. This is especially relevant now, as moderating sentiment from a 25-basis-point cut could trigger a temporary reversal in yield spreads. Considering the underperformance of the 10Y-2Y spread in September and increased auction demand for 10-year Treasuries, a long position in the 10Y-2Y spread may be the most favorable strategy for gaining exposure to the steepening yield curve. Investors can express views on the yield curve using CME Yield Futures through a long position in 10Y yield futures and a short position in 2Y yield futures. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This makes spread calculations trivial with a 1 basis point change in spread representing PnL of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of September 13, making this trade even more compelling. A hypothetical trade setup offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.46x is provided below: Entry: 14.2 basis points Target: 35 basis points Stop Loss: 0 basis point Profit at Target: USD 208 (20.8 basis points x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 142 (14.2 basis points x 10) Reward to Risk: 1.46x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Lower inflation do not mean things will become cheaperLower inflation and interest rates do not necessarily mean that prices will decrease. If I annualize the inflation numbers instead of focusing on the monthly figures, the overall picture becomes much clearer. 2 and 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY, 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
7
Zero Spread Milestone: Strategic Trade in Micro Yield FuturesIntroduction The current market scenario presents a unique potential opportunity in the yield spread between Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!). This spread is reaching a critical price point of zero, likely acting as a strong resistance. Such a rare situation opens the door for a strategic trading opportunity where traders can consider shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. In TradingView, this spread is visualized using the symbol 10Y1!-CBOT_MINI:2YY1!. The combination of technical indicators suggests a mean reversion trade setup, making this a compelling moment for traders to act on such a potential opportunity. The alignment of overbought signals from Bollinger Bands® and the RSI indicator further strengthens the case for a reversal, presenting an intriguing setup for informed traders. All of this is following last Wednesday, July 31, 2024, when the FED reported their decision related to interest rates where they left them unchanged, adding further context to the current market dynamics. Yield Futures Contract Specifications Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!): Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum). Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1. Margin Requirements: Approximately $320 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions). Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!): Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum). Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1. Margin Requirements: Approximately $330 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions). Margin Requirements: The margin requirements for these contracts are relatively low, making them accessible for retail traders. However, traders must ensure they maintain sufficient margin in their accounts to cover potential market movements and avoid margin calls. Understanding Futures Spreads What is a Futures Spread? A futures spread is a trading strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling two different futures contracts with the aim of profiting from the difference in their prices. This difference, known as the spread, can fluctuate based on various market factors, including interest rates, economic data, and investor sentiment. Futures spreads are often used to hedge risks, speculate on price movements, or take advantage of relative value differences between related instruments. Advantages of Futures Spreads: Reduced Risk: Spreads generally have lower risk compared to outright futures positions because the two legs of the spread can offset each other. Lower Margin Requirements: Exchanges often set lower margin requirements for spread trades compared to single futures contracts because the risk is typically lower. Leverage Relative Value: Traders can take advantage of price discrepancies between related contracts, potentially profiting from their convergence or divergence. Yield Spread Example: In the context of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, a yield spread trade involves buying (or shorting) one contract (10Y1! Or 2YY1!) while shorting (or buying) the other. This trade is based on the expectation that the spread between these two yields will move in a specific direction, such as narrowing or widening. The current scenario (detailed below), where the spread is reaching zero, suggests a significant resistance level, providing a unique trading opportunity for mean reversion. Analysis Method Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands® and RSI 1. Bollinger Bands®: The spread between the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) is currently above the upper Bollinger Band on both the daily and weekly timeframes. This indicates potential overbought conditions, suggesting that a price reversal might be imminent. 2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is clearly overbought on the daily timeframe, signaling a possible mean reversion trade. When the RSI reaches such elevated levels, it often indicates that the current trend may be losing momentum, opening the door for a reversal. Chart Analysis Daily Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1! The main article daily chart above displays the spread between 10Y1! and 2YY1!, highlighting the current position above the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI indicator also shows overbought conditions, reinforcing the potential for a mean reversion. Weekly Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1! The above weekly chart further confirms the spread's position above the upper Bollinger Band. This longer-term view provides additional context and supports the likelihood of a reversal. Conclusion: Combining the insights from both Bollinger Bands® and RSI provides a compelling rationale for the trading opportunity. The spread reaching the upper Bollinger Band on multiple timeframes, along with an overbought RSI, strongly suggests that the current overextended condition is potentially unsustainable. Additionally, all of this is occurring around the key price level of zero, which can act as a significant psychological and technical resistance. This convergence of technical indicators and the critical price level points to a high probability for a potential mean reversion, making it an opportune moment to analyze shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) as the spread is expected to revert towards its mean. Trade Setup Entry: The strategic trade involves shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) around the price point of 0. This is based on the analysis that the spread reaching zero can act as a strong resistance level. Target: As we expect the 20 SMA to move with each daily update, instead of targeting -0.188, we aim for a mean reversion to approximately -0.15. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the recent highs of the spread. The daily ATR (Average True Range) value is 0.046, so adding this to the entry price could be a way to implement a volatility stop. This accounts for potential volatility and limits the downside risk of the trade. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate the reward-to-risk ratio based on the entry, target, and stop loss levels. For example, if the entry is at 0.04, the target is -0.15, and the stop loss is at 0.09, the reward-to-risk ratio can be calculated as follows: Reward: 0.19 points = $190 Risk: 0.05 = $50 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.19 / 0.05 = 3.8 : 1 Importance of Risk Management Defining Risk Management: Risk management is crucial to limit potential losses and ensure long-term trading success. It involves identifying, analyzing, and taking proactive steps to mitigate risks associated with trading. Using Stop Loss Orders: Always use stop loss orders to prevent significant losses and protect capital. A stop loss order automatically exits a trade when the price reaches a predetermined level, limiting the trader's loss. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Clearly define your risk exposure to avoid unexpected large losses. This involves defining the right position size based on the trader’s risk management rules by setting maximum loss limits per trade and overall portfolio. Precise Entries and Exits: Accurate entry and exit points are essential for successful trading. Well-timed entries and exits can maximize profits and minimize losses. Other Important Considerations: Diversify your trades to spread risk across different assets. Regularly review and adjust your trading strategy based on market conditions. Stay informed about macroeconomic events and news that could impact the markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
10-Year T-Note vs. 10-Year Yield Futures: Which One To Trade?Introduction: The 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are two prominent instruments in the financial markets, offering traders unique opportunities to capitalize on interest rate movements. This video compares these two products, focusing on their key characteristics, liquidity, and the differences in point and tick values, ultimately helping you decide which one to trade. Key Characteristics: 10-Year T-Note Futures represent a contract based on the value of U.S. Treasury notes with a 10-year maturity, while 10-Year Yield Futures are based on the yield of these notes. The T-Note Futures contract size is $100,000, while the 10-Year Yield Futures contract size is based on $1,000 per index point, reflecting a $10 DV01 (dollar value of a one basis point move). Liquidity Comparison: Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are highly liquid, with substantial daily trading volumes and open interest. This high liquidity ensures tight spreads and efficient trade execution, providing traders with confidence in entering and exiting positions in both markets. Point and Tick Values: Understanding the point and tick values is crucial for effective trading. For 10-Year T-Note Futures, each tick is 1/32nd of a point, worth $31.25 per contract. The 10-Year Yield Futures have a tick value of 0.001 percent, worth $1.00 per contract. These values influence trading costs and profit potential differently and are essential for precise strategy formulation. Margin Information: The initial margin requirement for 10-Year T-Note Futures typically ranges around $1,500 per contract, while the maintenance margin is slightly lower. For 10-Year Yield Futures, the initial margin is approximately $500 per contract, reflecting its lower notional value and DV01. Maintenance margins for yield futures are also marginally lower, providing traders with flexible capital management options. Trade Execution: We demonstrate planning and placing a bracket order for both products. Using TradingView charts, we set up entry and exit points, showcasing how the different tick values and liquidity levels impact trade execution and potential outcomes. Risk Management: Effective risk management is vital when trading futures. Utilizing stop-loss orders and hedging techniques can mitigate potential losses. Avoiding undefined risk exposure and ensuring precise entries and exits help maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio, which is essential for long-term trading success. Conclusion: Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures offer unique advantages. The choice depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market outlook. Watch the full video for a detailed analysis and insights on leveraging these products in your trading endeavors. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has shifted, stirring speculations that Fed may be forced to cut rates should the US economy slip into recession. Uncertainty around the timeline of rate cuts plus a potential looming recession are causing the yield curve to invert once more. Investors can obtain exposure using CME yield futures with a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x. RECESSION SIGNALS ARE FLASHING AGAIN Monetary policy winds are starting to shift once more. Recent economic data, including PMI figures, and a sharply weaker GDP in the US have led participants to increase their expectations that the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will have to relent and cut rates in 2024. Source: CME FedWatch Over the past month, probability of a rate cut at 7/Nov policy meeting has increased from 42% to 47%. More notably, the probability of a second rate cut at the 18/December policy remains slightly elevated over the past week at 35%. Typically, rate cuts suggest that the Fed is nearing its dual goals of maximum employment and stable prices. However, current expectations for rate cuts may stem from distinct reasons. Inflation remains persistent. Fed officials remain steadfast in their battle against inflation. But inflation is stalled at 3%. Higher rates are instead starting to impact economic growth. As rates remain high, the odds of an economic slowdown rise. On 4/June, job openings in the US fell to their lowest level in three years. On 31/May, the Chicago PMI indicator fell sharply into what is a recession territory. Q1 GDP was revised lower last month. Weak consumption data from the US has led to expectations that GDP growth during Q2 may remain slow. On a similar note, the household jobs survey showed full-time employment declining by 625k in May while part-time employment rose by just 286k. However, not all jobs’ data was negative. The establishment jobs survey showed strong job creation at 272k far higher than expectations of 182k. Additionally, wage growth was above expectations as weekly average earnings rose 0.4% compared to 0.2% in April. The household survey counts each individual only once, regardless of how many jobs they have. In contrast, the establishment survey counts employees multiple times if they appear on more than one payroll. Many observers have been calling for a recession in the US ever since the Fed raised rates to their highest level in 23 years. Yet the US economy has remained robust. Part of the reason behind the resilience has been the savings cushion that US consumers built up during the pandemic. However, with the strong inflation during the past year, most of that cushion has been spent. Consumers have already started to shift their consumption habits and credit usage (and delinquency) has been on the rise. Credit card delinquencies are at the highest level in more than a decade and personal savings built up during the pandemic have been exhausted. ECONOMIC DATA DRIVES BOND YIELDS LOWER AND RE-INVERTS YIELD CURVE Throughout the past 10 days, economic releases in the US have driven bond yields consistently lower. Recent non-farm payrolls data drove a rally in yields. Economic releases have also driven a decline in the yield spreads resulting in further inversion of the yield curve. Since the release of the PCE price index and Chicago PMI on Friday 30/May, the 10Y-2Y spread has declined by nine basis points. The 30Y-2Y spread has performed the worst since then as it stands ten basis points lower. Further, unlike the uptick in yields following NFP, the yield spreads continued to invert further, especially for the 30Y-2Y and 10Y-2Y spread. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Historically, the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries tends to normalize by the time a recession officially hits the US. Based on current trends, a recession, as indicated by GDP metrics, might not occur until early next year. Currently, the yield curve is deeply inverted, and recession signals are intensifying. Moreover, the possibility of a rate cut remains uncertain. This ongoing uncertainty about the policy direction is further exacerbating the inversion of the 10Y-2Y spread. Another factor to consider is the upcoming US elections. As the Fed strives to remain an independent authority, they may opt to avoid major policy moves before elections are concluded. This week is set to bring several key economic updates, including the May CPI report and the Federal Reserve's revised economic projections. These projections are expected to reveal that rate cuts, previously anticipated for 2024, might be delayed further. The volatility in economic data has made it challenging to assess the yield trends. Despite a general rise in yields, the yield curve continues to invert, particularly the 30Y-2Y spread, which has been the most adversely affected. This reflects ongoing investor concerns about long-term Treasuries as expectations for rate cuts are pushed further into the future. Source: CME CurveWatch Investors can obtain exposure to a further inversion in the 30Y-2Y spread using CME Yield futures. CME Yield futures are quoted directly in yield with a one basis point change in the yield representing a P&L of USD 10. As yield futures across various maturities represent the same notional, spread P&L calculations are equally intuitive with a one basis point change in the spread between two separate maturities also equal to USD 10. The hypothetical trade setup using the 30Y-2Y spread is described below. • Entry: -36.5 basis points (bps) • Target: -50 bps • Stop Loss: -28 bps • Profit at Target: USD 135 (13.5 bps x USD 10) • Loss at Stop: USD 85 (8.5 bps x USD 10) • Reward to Risk: 1.59x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Short
by mintdotfinance
What Next For The Inverted Yield Curve?Markets are notorious for exaggerated expectations. They sense a tiger when all they see is a cat. Expectations on rate cuts have been no different. Despite the Fed’s speak on measured changes to policy rates, markets got ahead of themselves since late last year. Markets are now starting to align their expectations with reality. US economic data from January stands in stark contrast to December readings. Nonfarm payrolls and CPI are higher than expectations. A resilient economy and rebound in inflation have pushed expectations of rate cuts to much later this year. According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the March FOMC policy meeting dropped from 73% on 29 Dec 2023 to merely 8.5% as of 19 Feb 2024. First rate cut is now expected at the 12 June policy meeting this year. Markets are now pricing four rate cuts instead of six cuts as previously anticipated. Shift in rate cut expectations has led to a rebound in US treasury bond yields. This paper delves into the factors behind the shift in rate expectations. The paper also analyses a hypothetical trade setup using CME Group Yield futures that investors can deploy to harness gains from revised policy path ahead. RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS IS BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN REALITY NOW A stream of recent economic data from the US has pointed to a stronger economy and a rebound in inflation, causing rate cut expectations to shift. January nonfarm payrolls report showed 353k jobs added, exceeding expectations of 333k and the largest build since January 2023. January CPI report showed annual CPI growth slow from its pace of 3.4% in December 2023 to 3.1% in Jan 2024 but still hotter than analyst expectations of 2.9%. Core CPI was another concern as it stood unchanged at 3.9%. On a monthly basis, CPI jumped 0.3% MoM. 0.6% MoM increase in rent prices and 0.4% increase in food prices were behind the monthly increase. On the positive front, PPI fell 0.1% MoM in January, with goods prices 0.4% lower. PPI is just 1% higher YoY against an estimate of +1.3% estimate. January Retail Sales fell sharply by 0.8% MoM in January. December growth was revised lower from +0.6% to +0.4%. This is expected to lead to a lower GDP growth in Q1. GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed predicts 2.9% growth in Q1, compared to 3.4% before the release. As a result of the broadly stronger data and higher inflation, expectations of rate cuts at the 20/March FOMC meeting have fallen from their peak of 74% on 29 December 2023 to 8.5% as of 19 February 2024. Expectations for a rate cut by May have also been scaled back. As of 14 Feb 2024, there is just 35% probability of a rate cut at the 01 May FOMC meeting as well. Source: CME Group FedWatch FedWatch indicates 50% probability of a rate cut for the meeting on 12 June 2024, which is up from 40% a week ago. Source: CME Group FedWatch The increase reflects the recent retail sales and jobless claims data that was stronger than expected. Both have led to a pullback in bond yields from their 2024 highs. Source: CME Group FedWatch The CME Group FedWatch tool indicates expectations of four rate cuts in 2024 as of 18/Feb down from six cuts at the start of the year. The expectations around rate cuts have also shifted in Fed’s messaging. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the Federal reserve does not face any urgency in cutting rates due to the current strength in the US economy. Dallas Fed President, Lorie Logan, shares similar sentiments . Fed Chair Powell echoed the same message. Powell stated the Fed won’t cut rates until it has greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably to its target. Specifically, he mentioned that a rate cut was unlikely by March. In an interview with “60 Minutes”, Powell suggested that Fed’s base case scenario of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 was unchanged. As a result of delayed rate cuts expectations, US treasury yields have rebounded. FOMC MINUTES TO REITERATE HAWKISH POSTURE Strong economic data and inflation numbers coming in hotter than expected will keep the Fed hawkish in the near term. How long will be anybody's guess? On 21/Feb (Wed), minutes of the FOMC January meeting will be published. Expectations are for Fed to reiterate its hawkish posture. In anticipation, the 2-year yield futures are up forty-nine basis points (bps) to close at 4.601% as of 16/Feb (compared to 4.112% close of markets on 1/Feb). Meanwhile, during the same period, the 10-year yield futures jumped forty-five bps to close at 4.295% as of close of markets on 16/Feb. Taking directional views on the 2-year or the 10-year yields can be difficult when rate expectations are already baked into the yields. Directional views expose the trade to large downside risks vastly reducing reward-to-risk ratio. In sharp contrast, spread trades enables trades to lock in gains while minimizing downside risks. This paper illustrates a hypothetical treasury spread trade below. HYPOTHETICAL 10Y-2Y TREASURY SPREAD TRADE Portfolio managers can better harvest gains from rate moves by trading the closely monitored US Treasury yield spread measuring the gap between yields on 2-year & 10-year Treasury notes. FOMC minutes reiterating a hawkish posture will invert the yield curve even more. To help traders monitor this spread, the CME Group publishes a Micro Treasury CurveWatch tool which shows daily, weekly, and monthly changes in yields and major yield spreads. Source: Micro Treasury CurveWatch tool Portfolio managers can express this view by taking a short position in the CME Group 10-Year Yield Futures (10YG4) and a long position in the CME Group 2-Year Yield Futures (2YYG4). ● Entry: -0.2790 (27.9 bps; enter the spread trade when 10YG4 minus 2YYG4 is -0.2790 bps) ● Target Exit: -0.3690 (36.9 bps) ● Stop Loss: -0.2250 (22.5 bps) ● Profit at Target: USD 90 (9 bps x USD 10) ● Loss at Stop: USD 54 (5.4 bps x USD 10) ● Reward to Risk: 1.66x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Short
by mintdotfinance