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Yields

US 10yr Treasury Yields Press Against ResistanceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just beneath the 4.34% resistance level, with price forming a tight ascending triangle just under this key level. Today’s pullback to 4.31% (-0.74%) suggests hesitation from bulls as momentum indicators turn mixed. 🔹 MACD is flat, showing a lack of directional conviction. 🔹 RSI sits at 47.94, neutral and non-committal. 🔹 Price remains sandwiched between the 50-day SMA (4.43%) and the 200-day SMA (4.22%). A confirmed breakout above 4.34% could open the door for a run toward 4.50% or even 4.80%. Conversely, a drop below the rising trendline (~4.24%) would expose downside risk toward the 200-day SMA. Watch for a catalyst (Fed commentary or inflation data) to break the deadlock. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
Credit Spreads - About to Blow?While credit spreads, which reached near-historic lows in 2024, remain tight, they have widened notably since the beginning of 2025. If this trend accelerates, it could put substantial pressure on the bond market, resulting in tighter financial conditions and corresponding headwinds for the domestic economy. The last 2-3 weeks have seen risk assets come under pressure, but the below chart suggests that the risk-off sentiment shift may still be early-stage... Whether viewed through a traditional technical lens or supply/demand, current levels could be considered supportive - risk is to the upside. A few impacted ETFs: NASDAQ:IEF , NASDAQ:TLT , AMEX:HYG , AMEX:JNK Jon JHartCharts
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2Long
by JHartCharts
US10Y Strong sell signal below the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 23 2023 High. In the past 2 months it has been on a downtrend, which is the technical Bearish Leg of the pattern. The 1D MACD is on its 2nd Bullish Cross on a decline, very similar with the previous Bearish Leg of the Channel Down. We are again on the 0.5 Fibonacci level and as long as any rebound gets rejected below or on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term bearish pattern remains intact. We expect a similar Bearish Leg of -24% overall to target 3.685%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
relief pumpSeems like election bull was already priced in, new money got washed. Bonds are making a comeback, cash is a position. Expecting more downturn after a relief pump, coinciding with yields retracement. Yields trending with equity price are usually signs of either economical expansion or economical fears, such as slowdown or recession, during up and downs. The markets just jumped from one narrative to the other: expansion(trump gets in office) ---> slowdown(tariffs imposed) I think the expansion narrative will take a while to settle back(end of Q2 at least) after all the executive orders signed. Although, I'm still long for the month of March, nice opportunity for a relief pump, before resuming of slowdown narrative.
TVC:US10YLong
by Osmanomics
EUR/USD keeps rolling after ECB rate cutThe euro has posted strong gains on Friday after taking a pause a day earlier.  EUR/USD is trading at 1.0858 in the European session, up 0.69% on the day.  It's been a remarkable week for the euro, which has soared 4.7% against the US dollar. The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points on Thursday in a widely-expected decision.  This brings the deposit rate to 2.5%, its lowest level since Dec. 2022.  The central bank has been aggressive in its easing cycle, slashing rates by 185 basis points in just nine months. The rate reduction was no surprise and is being described as the "last easy cut".  Inflation is running at a 2.4% clip, above the ECB's 2% target but low enough to deliver rate hikes in order to boost the flagging economy. What's next for the ECB is a tricky question, especially with economic and political developments moving at a dizzying pace. First, the new Trump administration hasn't wasted any time in imposing (and in some cases, suspending) tariffs, which has chilled investor sentiment and sent equity markets tumbling. The US hasn't applied tariffs to the European Union although it has threatened to do so.  The EU would surely retaliate and a trade war between the two giant economies will damage growth and raise inflation in the eurozone. Second, Trump is showing growing impatience with Ukraine and has suspended military aid. Germany has responded by easing its fiscal spending rules and has proposed a massive spending scheme for defense and infrastructure. This has sent German bond yields and the euro soaring. ECB President Lagarde said after the ECB meeting that the situation was changing "dramatically" by the day and the ECB would need to be "extremely vigilant" and "agile". She reiterated that future rate decisions would be based on the data. The US wraps up the week with the February employment report. Nonfarm payrolls sank to 143 thousand in January from 256 thousand a month earlier.  The market estimate for February stands at 160 thousand. A surprise in either direction from nonfarm payrolls would likely have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0801 and 1.0837 and is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0889.  Above, there is resistance at 1.0925 1.0749 and 1.0713 are the next support lines
by OANDA
Can Brazil’s Bonds Defy Global Chaos?In an era of escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty, Brazil’s financial markets offer a compelling enigma for the astute investor. As of March 3, 2025, with the USD/BRL exchange rate at 1 USD = 5.87 BRL, the Brazilian real has shown resilience, appreciating from 6.2 to 5.8 this year. This strength, intriguingly tied to a bond market boasting 10-year yields near 15%, prompts a deeper question: could Brazil emerge as an unexpected sanctuary amid global turmoil? This exploration unveils a landscape where high yields and domestic focus challenge conventional investment wisdom. Brazil’s bond market operates as an idiosyncratic force with yields dwarfing those of peers like Chile (5.94%) and Mexico (9.49%). Driven by local dynamics—fiscal policy, inflation, and a central bank unbound by global rate cycles—it has seen yields ease from 16% to 14.6% year-to-date, signaling stabilization. This shift correlates with the real’s rise, suggesting a potent inverse relationship: as yields moderate, confidence grows, bolstering the currency. For the inquisitive mind, this interplay invites a reevaluation of risk and reward in a world where traditional havens falter. Yet, the global stage adds layers of complexity. U.S.-China trade tensions, while not directly targeting Brazil, ripple through its economy—offering trade diversion benefits like increased soybean exports to China, yet threatening slowdowns that could dim growth. With China as its top trade partner and the U.S. second, Brazil straddles opportunity and vulnerability. Investors must ponder: can its bond market’s allure withstand these crosswinds, or will global forces unravel its promise? The answer lies in decoding this delicate balance, a challenge that inspires curiosity and strategic daring.
Long
by UDIS_View
2
Critical 4.50% level being tested ahead of Trump speech and FOMCThe US10-year yield closed the week marginally higher at 4.48% after a busy week of events which saw the DXY stumble by 1.2% despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than expected at 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% in December. Additionally, on top of Powell’s comments regarding the strength of the US economy, the ISM Manufacturing PMI completely shattered expectations after coming in stronger than expected at 50.9 for the month of January. The US10-year yield is currently testing the 50-day MA level of 4.52% as well as the blue support range between 4.45% and 4.50%. A break below 4.40% will however force me to invalidate my series of ideas on the US10-year yield calling for a move higher towards 5.00%. A break below 4.40% will allow bond bulls to pull the yield lower onto the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 4.30% and the 200-day MA at 3.69%.
TVC:US10Y
by Goose96
US10Y: Buy signal on the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.381, MACD = 0.046, ADX = 33.861) as it is on a bearish wave insde the long term Channel Up pattern. The last HL bottom was priced on the 1D MA50. That is the most efficient buy entry to target the 4.0 Fibonacci extension (TP 5.100). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
1
Global Bonds New LowThe UK bonds have broken below the recent decades-low in the past weeks. What has caused this turmoil? We will drill down into the specific dates that triggered this meltdown. 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
US 10yr Yields Eyeing 5%?Chart Analysis: The 10-Year US Treasury Yield continues to climb within a well-defined ascending channel, highlighting robust bullish momentum in recent months. 1️⃣ Ascending Channel: Yields are trading near the upper boundary of the ascending channel (green-shaded area), reflecting sustained upward pressure. Traders should monitor reactions at this boundary for potential breakout attempts or a pullback toward the channel’s midline. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Levels: 4.80%: Immediate resistance level, capping recent gains. 5.02%: A critical horizontal resistance zone, representing a multi-year high and potential target on continued strength. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Trending upward at 4.33%, providing dynamic support. 200-day SMA (red): Rising at 4.24%, reinforcing the broader bullish trend. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 75.68, signaling overbought conditions, which may precede a consolidation or corrective pullback. MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong, with the MACD line above the signal line and in positive territory. What to Watch: Sustained breaks above 4.80% could pave the way for a test of 5.02%, with potential for further upside if this resistance fails. Any pullback may find support near the 50-day SMA or the ascending channel’s lower boundary. RSI overbought conditions suggest vigilance for potential divergences or reversal signals. The 10-Year Yield’s bullish structure remains intact, supported by rising moving averages and upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as yields approach critical resistance levels. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.13.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 14 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%) 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (prev: 0.2%) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 📅 Thu Jan 16 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%) 📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K) 📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -7.0 (prev: -16.4) 📅 Fri Jan 17 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Building Permits: 1.46M (prev: 1.49M) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: The markets will get a few days of a bullish run. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by TrendTao
Market Update: UK 10Y Yields Back on Nov 4th, we highlighted a potential triangle pattern on UK 10Y yields. 📈 At the time, we noted that a weekly close above 4.75% would complete the pattern, offering a potential longer-term upside target of 6.6%. Last week, we got a weekly close above 4.75%! While a monthly close would strengthen the case, for now, as long as yields stay above 4.50%, I'm leaning into this scenario. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:GB10YLong
by The_STA
100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield. Basis = 10 Year SMA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction. *** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook. The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
12
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
Yields USA 1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%): - The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation. 2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%): - The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening. 3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%): - The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation. 4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%): - The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds. The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by eLs-Trading
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen. Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election. Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
by BlackBull_Markets