Get started

Yields

BONDS YIELD PREDICTION!!!!! US02YDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis for 2 year bond yield on the Daily Timeframe. POINTS: 1. Since the beginning of this upward trend on January 2022 we have seen that bonds and the overall market are said to share an inverse relationship but during pivotal moments that has not been the case as you can see that the stock market has risen along with bonds and vise versa . 2. Deviation in SUPLY & DEMAND POCKETS is clearly shown to be every 1% RISE IN YIELDS . (Refer to BLUE & ORANGE Horizontal Lines) 3. Before entry is made into a new DEMAND POCKET price action has a distinctive pump that has occurred several times. (Refer to white lines between SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS). 4. Predicted rise was formulated by using the average of previous last two pumps of +40.92% and +54.21% = +48% when rounded. 5. Average does in fact coincide with previous point of resistance when bond yields rose to 6% in the early 2000's. (A POINT THAT I WOULD CONSIDER TO BE A PIVOT POINT) 6. When you observe MACD we can also conclude that downward pressure is looking for relief like in past occasions. SCENARIO #1: Bond Yields continue to rise and follow uptrend into early 2023 which can then signify that a market bottom is yet to be confirmed. SCENARIO #2: Bond Yields break crucial SUPPORT OF 4.000% and will invalidate current setup. Possibly being followed by capitulation in the stock market since falls in yields seem to be more closely tied to falls in the overall market than the inverse relationship. TVC:US02Y
TVC:US02Y
by DGSTBROKERACC
XAUUSDHello traders. Gold is unstoppable. It has not retraced at all to any fibonacci levels or whatever. Last time it touched the demand area of 1618, it bought straightly up. Two consolidation boxes during this formation of uptrend. On 15 of August, close to 180x area, there was the starting point of the last bearish leg for gold. price violated 1680 area and created new key levels around 1616. Now, due to weak USD the price has been immensely increased. 1780 - 1790 area may give nice sell opportunities but I am more into the scenario of 1805 area. This seems to be more interesting in price action of recent months and this will be the key resistance level range. It is highly possible to open at highs and go for 1800 psychological point. However, patience is key and thing will get cleared on Tuesday's night and starting of Assian Session, when it may give reversal for gold. Keep at your watchlist DXY, US10 Years Yield Bonds as well 30 years Yield bonds. When these three start getting green and upcoming week fundamentas related to dollar give a breath to the currency, gold will drop.If they support dollar. Otherwise, this scenario is not valid anymore and we go for a break - retest of 1813 area and long continuation. Multiple ideas either for buys or for shorts. Others with good RRR other with poor. But still valid. Good luck!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by The_Forex_Path
XAGUSDHello traders. These are my scenarios for possible xagusd continuation. tomorrow is Monday so I propose stay away from the markets until the makers initiate the week's structure. Be careful of mid week reversal - Tuesday night. The orders of sell and buys are indicating in order to have a benchmark. For entries do your own analysis in lower timeframes. Keep an eye of Yields 30Y and 10Y as well as of DXY. If they are red this will fly and vice versa. Retails sales from USA incoming this week with pessimist point of view. 23.8 as Fib Retracement level is important.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by The_Forex_Path
Gold Weekly Forecast 14-18.11Last week I targeted 1760 level and the bias was right. Price moved even more and faster, without retracements. This week my bias is bullish again and I will share my confirmations with you. I am expecting from Gold to go a little bit higher, reaching daily manipulation zone and the monthly pivot point. After that a retracement is expected. Price moved up very fast, leaving an inefficiency behind. For a healthy trend price must to move without imbalance or small one. Other reason that I am expecting a retracement is, because lot of retail traders seeing this big move will buy Gold. The institutions want their money and will manipulate price down. Price should go down and test the previous daily manipulation zone, before continue up. This is a very strong level of confluence - manipulation zone, monthly pivot, Fibonacci retracement (61,8%-70,5%), 50% of the consolidation, strong psychological level, very strong SnR. This will be the perfect scenario. If you have issues to draw the manipulations zones, the indicator will do it instead you ( SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Zones) COT Reports will be released on Monday, so I can not include them into Analysis, but we have enough information to make the forecast. Macroeconomics The market sentiment has changed. CPI reading showed significant slowing down of inflation. FED already announced that they can hike the rates above 4,5% if the inflation is not going down, but now there are speculations that FED will be more dovish. Market already priced in and made huge bullish impulse move. There are speculations that FED overreacted and the monetary policy is too tight ,thats why they will go with smaller pace or even pause the rate hike. There are signs that China is easing the Covid restrictions. This should increase the demand for Gold. More info you can get from the my monthly economical report. Right now the Yields are not so attractive for the investors and the issues with cryptos leave no choices for investments, except the metals. Buying banks + investors = big bullish moves Sector Metals The whole sector is going up. I dont see divergence. This is confirmation that there is no anomaly and Gold should continue up. Advanced Market Structure Higher highs and lower lows can be labelled from everyone, even indicators - for example "SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Structure, Liquidity". On this chart I am presenting you an advanced understanding of the market structure. This give me the ability to make projections and get idea how eventual the market can move. According to my count, price formed Long Term Low (LTL) and this is indication that this Low will hold, at least for a while. Price already broke the key level, which is indication that the main trend is changing. If price break the critical level this will be the confirmation. On this chart we can see that price is forming Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. This chart looks like to me as ICT buy model. Top-Down Analysis Monthly Price is making a huge monthly candle. This is typical, when institutions are buying. When they are buying, we should buy too :). If we analyse the candles, we will see that when price is dropping it makes small candles, but when is pushing it makes big candles. This means that the main trend is bullish. Weekly Pretty much the same story - very big weekly candle, definitely anomaly in price action, meaning that something is happening. Price already made high confluence buy setup and we saw the result. After this big candle I am expecting some retracement to a cover part of the imbalance. Daily On daily TF price is breaking every last lower high, meaning that structure is changed or changing. Behind the big candles are the banks. Yields 10 Years Yields already pivoted by forming the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. 2 Years Yields also turned very sharply, by breaking the bullish channel. The bullish Yields were only competitor for the Gold, but they are no longer an issue. Now Gold can start to acting as inflation hedging asset. GDX and XAUUSD They both go up, no divergence. It is a confirmation for the direction. GDX already started its retracement. Now is XAUUSD's turn. My opinion is that GDX will test the consolidation, before continue up. Last few weeks XAUUSD was underperformed against GDX, which lead me that XAUUSD will retrace deeper to 50% of the consolidation, where is my target and confluence of confirmations. Gold-Silver It seems to me that Silver is showing more bullish momentum last few weeks compared to Gold. It already reached a consolidation zone, which means to me, it will retrace or consolidate again. The retracement already has started. Gold should follow Silver and will retrace. Elliot-Wave Analysis I follow and label the price for a while. My last count suggested that Gold will make a big retracement or started new impulse up ( I wrote in my last forecast). In current economical situation and price action, I believe that the new impulse already started. VSA On this chart I marked the current Wyckoff patterns and made my projection for the future patterns. In my opinion the last lower low was only a fake-out(spring) to clear the major liquidity at 1680 area. On this chart we can also see that price lost the bearish momentum in the consolidation and created bullish one. Another confirmation for the new bullish trend. Momentum From this chart we can see that the momentum already turned and now is showing bullish momentum. Price already reached the long term moving average. From MA normally price bounce a bit before break it. RSI is has bullish momentum and is about to break the consolidation range. Right now is in overbought condition, which is one more confirmation that Gold will retrace. For more information contact me.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SerpentForexClub
3
What is happening to Bitcoin and Crypto?!! Wow.... I think that yesterday is a day that no one was expecting and was ready for! As we are seeing Bitcoin making newer lows due to the bad environment we cannot tell what is about to happen next. But we have some data to look at. We are seeing that BTC wallets with 10k BTC are making a new ATH and they are not getting liquidated. Most of the people are interested in opening a low the moment BTC hits a newer low resulting in a strong bounce back up. The DXY is on the edge of falling down just like the Yields. Tomorrow the CPI numbers will get released so expect even more volatility in de markets. Trade safe and don't let emotions take over your trading decisions.
by Mynameisnotrelevant
US-DOLLAR falls with rising YIelds? NonSense!Hey tradomaniacs, we currently see weird correlations as YIELDS are going up (especially shorter-term-yields which are likely to move up faster when facing a recession) while the US-Dollar falls. As you might know, this makes less sense and we should soon see who one of those is lying. The mixed NFP-Result which was actually bearish for stocks (not in detail due to poor jobs) is causing a little bit of confusion. Technically we could see a bounce in USD... or a breakout soon? Will YIELDS go down and stocks pump? Since market bets against FED its getting tricky again! We might see again correlations with sense and more moves after CPis on thursday. What do you think?
TVC:DXY
by Trading2ez
1
US Dollar Index ForecastDemand for the dollar is usually high as it is the world's reserve currency. Other factors that influence whether or not the dollar rises in value in comparison to another currency include inflation rates, trade deficits, and political stability. The dollar has been gaining strength against the currencies of other major economies. The dollar is strong because the US economy is healthier than those of many other countries and because the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates. Does the dollar get stronger with higher interest rates? But the overriding reason for the strong dollar is the fight against inflation. The Federal Reserve is ratcheting up interest rates to attack the current near-constant rise in prices and said last week it expects more hikes this year. As it continues to raise rates, the dollar will strengthen. <-- https:// tradingeconomics.com/ united-states/ interest-rate ---> How do bond yields affect the dollar? Bond yields actually serve as an excellent indicator of the strength of a nation's stock market, which increases the demand for the nation's currency. For example, U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar. <--- https:// ycharts.com/indicators/ 10_2_year_treasury_yield_spread --->
TVC:DXYLong
by domotswiri
Strong Reversal SPY/SPX IHFundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to blow through cash to build the metaverse. -3 month/10 year yields inverted -Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days. -BOJ intervention -Canadian central bank increasing just .5 -Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs -Russians talking nuclear attacks Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm. -Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside. Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZaphodBeebz
US10Y Huge Bearish Divergence on RSI calls a drop!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside. What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always pulled-back and hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is currently at 3.563 (and rising). A reversal on the bond yields can have a major impact on the financial markets, especially ahead of next week's Fed Rate Decision, as it is negatively correlated with stocks and Gold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders, I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area. I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas. For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest. Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields. However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December. You can share your ideas on the comments!!! Good luck!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by The_Forex_Path
2
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618