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Strong Reversal SPY/SPX IHFundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to blow through cash to build the metaverse. -3 month/10 year yields inverted -Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days. -BOJ intervention -Canadian central bank increasing just .5 -Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs -Russians talking nuclear attacks Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm. -Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside. Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZaphodBeebz
US10Y Huge Bearish Divergence on RSI calls a drop!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside. What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always pulled-back and hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is currently at 3.563 (and rising). A reversal on the bond yields can have a major impact on the financial markets, especially ahead of next week's Fed Rate Decision, as it is negatively correlated with stocks and Gold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders, I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area. I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas. For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest. Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields. However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December. You can share your ideas on the comments!!! Good luck!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by The_Forex_Path
2
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618
Reverse Head and Shoulders Breakout in 30 Year Bond YieldVery clear reverse head and shoulders, a very strong chart pattern indicator for long term tops and bottoms, target is 3.6% yield on the 30 year bond. A retest of the neckline will confirm a very strong possibility of the target being reached. On the macro side, I think yields will be forced lower over the next 1-5 years. I'm looking to go all in on leveraged bonds if and when the the 3.6% yield is reached, or if CPI starts showing significant weakening.
TVC:TYX
by RPM3231342
SPY - Larger ContextLet's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away. Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish. It may, however, be cringeworthy. NQ below 200 W SMA. What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below this most important of level @ 3585.55. Powell - simple... NO CHANGE. ____________________________________________________________________________________ There has been a very orderly decline since The Terrible Tetons. The Monthly Gaps below remain wide open for Business, but - the Gaps above, not so much. It would take an extraordinary/non-binary Event to Fill those for now. We will see what further Fiscal attempts at remedy appear as we approach the Mid-Term Elections. I have November 7th as an important Pivot in Time, unsure as to why. It is however extremely significant as it keeps making appearances in Time on a great many studies. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Risks remain to the downside Short Term. Intermediate-Term will depend on an October Communique from the Market Overlords aka "Behnchods". The Chart is self-explanatory / it illustrates the Risk / Reward clearly. What was most interesting this week was how Wall Street was extremely agile in positioning. Options positioning was done with extreme Velocity / Scope / Scale. Executed perfectly to cause maximum confusion until it was too late for the boat to right itself. They capsized small Specs, repeatedly by loading the woodshed on the Sell in record time. And then, proceeded to close out Open Interest as quickly as it appeared once Payment was secured. Unfortunately, the House continued to press the SELL once they'd squared @ 365.06 on the SPY. The VIX and SPX, ES, NQ, YM - Inverse Gamma Hedging was NOT unwound but pressed quite hard. Gold - Lower for the nearer term, it is a broken trade, it can RT, but it will fail. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Here was the Implied Skew and Range I calculated Thursday for the Friday Dance Mix: Call Skew ATM $ 53,140,489.00 384.94 43.41% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent PUT Skew ATM $ 122,410,005.00 384.94 230.35% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent The Close came off the Pivot after dipping in ever so slightly with 368 for the SPY Close based upon the collapse of Open Interest - closing at 367.95. Wall Street ran the implied range @ 19.88 by 1.79 - a small expansion to 21.67. Close enough, MaxPain had the SPY pinned @ 387... their data sets were off by a very wide margin - an absurd failure on their effort. Here is the Open Data Set: Calls O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 375 179749 2.23 100 $ 40,084,027.00 376 155605 1.77 100 $ 27,542,085.00 377 115204 1.37 100 $ 15,782,948.00 380 175276 0.56 100 $ 9,815,456.00 $ 93,224,516.00 Puts O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 370 218394 0.89 100 $ 19,437,066.00 372 110857 1.43 100 $ 15,852,551.00 373 116496 1.77 100 $ 20,619,792.00 374 165461 2.18 100 $ 36,070,498.00 375 247727 2.64 100 $ 65,399,928.00 376 95994 3.17 100 $ 30,430,098.00 $ 187,809,933.00 In Sum, do not ever trust MaxPain, do your own work. It is garbage. ____________________________________________________________________________________ The important points in the Chart: Notice where the 55 EMA resides. Observe the Shorter duration of EMA crosses. EMA slopes and ST Fib Levels as both are Neodymium Magnets. Gap Fill Extension Range to and from recent Gap Highs to Implied Price Objective. ____________________________________________________________________________________ On to the Fundamentals: AAII Sentiment has crossed 60% Fear Greed is now 24 breaking into the Extreme Fear base camp The Dollar has its sights set on the 121 / 125 region, please observe the EuroDollar Chart. As well, consider the Dollar's response to BOJ interventions. Bonds are showing immense stress in the system. UST Settlement Failures are a disturbing account of reality. Defaults are mounting Globally, (See UK $500B recent Default last week). Yield Inversion simply continues to accelerate in fits and starts. Forwards for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7's are heading to 5%. A 40-Year Freak Out as Yield Inversion has exceeded 50%. FX - Default dislocations throughout the Markets can lead to a near Instant Spike in the Dollar contrary to those who are Bearish on the DXY. Yes, it will indeed collapse - your timing... it's off is all. Bitcoin - SUB 10K IMHO with ease - see Trendline. It is important to remember with EPS ahead - the Mega Caps breaking down... after 3 reductions to lower guidance since August... Sellers are piling into Apple once again, with good reason, it looks horrific. Weakness is everywhere in MegaCaps. Breadth - collapsing TRIN - Horror Show TRIX - Ditto Market Internals - No Nieno ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Contrarian Traders are likely early, hopefully, we see a small RT Monday for Wall Street to reposition. Have a great weekend. if you enjoyed this and found it of value, please give it a thumbs up and do share your thoughts - it is appreciated.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
13
Effective Fed Fuds 2023 - Powell's War on You Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy. 1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs. 2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs. 3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything. _________________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks Powell - Bonds are going to see a Yield Curve Inversion, larger than usual. There is no single condition, what is the term premium on Longer Rates is what matters most. Powell - Housing will see a significant correction, we want the housing market back on a sustainable path. Powell - Equities are overvalued, period, the end. We're committed to "Price Stability" Powell - The US should not return to a Gold Standard - Digital Currency is the path. Powell - We flooded the System with Money (Digitally) by buying Bonds now we are selling them. _________________________________________________________________________________ Forward Rates are indicating he is very serious. I've warned about this for well over a year now - safe to say its come to pass.
CBOT:ZQU2023
by HK_L61
2
DXY Makes New Highs After the FOMCThe DXY got a strong burst of momentum from yesterday's FOMC. Although we got our 75 bps hike (as expected), the press conference that followed was a lot more somber. Powell forecasted more hikes, despite the markets expectations of a more dovish forward guidance. This fueled an interest rate spike in treasuries, and bolstered the DXY's meteoric rally to break through highs and hit our target of 111.37 exactly. Recall that we have been projecting this level for weeks. Currently we are seeing a bit of a pullback which is anticipated. We should see support at 110.20, and potentially a sideways correction from here.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
The Bond Market Reacts to the FOMCBonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels to determine support levels further down. Our targets are 115'03 and 115'29 if we get our relief rally.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
SPY - Apres Powell & The Double DipJackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview. Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range? That is a suicide, assured. See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day. That Chart is simply NASTY. The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower. It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will become a brushfire. Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes. Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex. Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity. Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022. Technically the Markets do not support Buyers. Liquidity does not support Buyers. Margins do not support Buyers. Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead. Yields do not support Buyers. The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade, I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold. Is there a setup here? No, there is however a great many trades. Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day and Intra-week. It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given. 3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners. NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead. Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead. VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of... arrived. Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times. You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in TLT. Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO will not provide lasting support. Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again. Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension. Sentiment - Terminal. In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not? ________________________________________________________________ Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate. Fixed. Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly, but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday. ___________________________________________________________________ Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into March of 2024. The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on 10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve. My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6% into 2023. It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022. 2019/2020 is the present Base. ___________________________________________________________________ I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention. Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time filling the Gap at 235. ___________________________________________________________________ Good Luck & Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned. Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82). Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday. For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed off to parts unknown. That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks, Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do. There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain. Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn. ______________________________________________________________________________ Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry: SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20) SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage. It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts. On to the Chart ______________________________________________________________________________ Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen. The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but over time. We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise, "Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens. For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853. Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly. RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st. Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise 100BPS, but 75BPS". We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral. I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity. Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further. Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize. Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle. ______________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
SPY/SPX - $8 Billion Press to Downside Protection - 4X Expiry Institutional Protection (Hedging) reached an All-Time High on the September 16th Quad Witch Expiration. This position dwarfs prior hedging Highs by 103% and is rising by an additional $8 Billion added to the hoard of Puts Friday. Not only are the positions outsized - it was 308% of 2008's Hedging. _________________________________________________________________________________ Intense Volatility will return in September. Of Note, with the declining Volatility Complex, VX Hedging has not dropped within a concurrent Cost Correlation. Options Writers are set for 3.19% IV for September... which may portend significantly Higher VX on any significant change in arrangements. _________________________________________________________________________________ On to the SPX/SPY and what is ahead. Of Note, I am Using the SPX as Large traders and Institutions are most heavily positioned here. Levels for the SPY are contained below. Trader Sentiment began the Week at 18.1% Bullish & 53.3% Bearish for the next 180 Days. ISM Price Paid Component declined 34.6% on the latest print as Commodity Intermediate Inputs have declined significantly. Interest Rate Forwards are indicating the FOMC will be @ 4% by January. The short end of the Curve continues to confirm the Fed Fund Futures. The DX took a breather on the Effective Rate Tussle between the EU and US. Powell will not do anything less than 75Bps and should the CPI be above 8.1 - 8.2, odds favor Powell stepping up the odds of 100 BPS, anything below 8 and 75Bps will be the LIS. The Fed is "data dependent" - ie. they bought themselves time and have already indicated it will be, at minimum, several months of observing the Data and not one nor two. Market Internals were solid with 90% Up, 10 :1 Advance peaking at 17 : 1 Intraday. Breadth improved as well, not significantly, but an improvement pushing the Closing Basis above the 10-Week Moving Average. Friday's rally was broad as was Wednesday's. NQ's Up/Down was higher as well, with a slight broadening after coming very close to putting in a lower low. The Put/Call ratio fell from 1.01 on Tuesday to .80 on close Friday - a 3-day decline. The ViX has 19.46 wide open again as we move into Roll through Settle, expect a surprise soon. It is ahead. The VVIX came up to its Pivot and failed badly. Extreme awareness of the UST Curve and Futures is vital to success as we are seeing 4% come into our view. DX, same considerations, the Ball is in Powell's court now that LeGarde has made her tit for tat. FX Disruptions were not considered not all that long ago. I pointed out they would be arriving shortly back in August of 2021. Very large disruptions were promised and delivered. 100% Ditto Bonds and their impending implosions. Dung was Flung then, not so much now and it is quite far from over for Bonds. As for the Levels in Trade this week, they can be observed on the Weekly Chart in a larger context. For Sunday Globex / Monday, here are the levels: NQ - Range Expands from 12,438 to 12,866 with 12508 as the Pivot. SPY - Range Expands from 405.44 to 415.22 with 406.17 as the Pivot. The 407.37 Gap is filled. _________________________________________________________________________________ *Options have continued to play an important role in Price over the past decade. Presently, they drive prices significantly. I will produce a thorough explanation, in detail, in the next few days. It will include: 1. The 5 Greeks and how they function - Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega & Rho. 2. Alpha and Beta relations from the Underlying to the Derivative. 3. The Yield Correlations. Have a great weekend, Good Luck on the Open - Trade Safe.
SP:SPX
by HK_L61
4
US10Y. P-Modeling Pt 1. Yields of Cajun Welcome Hyperspace Travelers. Proposition development is rendered. SPX is going to fresh multigenerational lows. The cybernetic era of advancement is upon us. The 4th industrial revolution is imminent. Things will get better. But first they must get very bad. Massive co-variate weight distribution imminent. Wealth distribution will be forced from top 1% into lower 90%. Technical Complexity is defined by linear and cyclic domains. Each domain combined created this gorgeous technical formation. Complex Technical Formation on 1 Week Macro Analysis of US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield. Harmonic Handle string sequencing. Defined Cajun Cup. Defined C-A harmonic equalization. Defined Linear Root. Defined Cyclic Root. ____________________________ Start: 1980. End: 2025. Tap: Mean Reversion at minimum. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
TVC:US10YLong
by Glitch420
6
Bond Market Reacts to Nonfarm and FedBonds fell again, hitting our next target at 115'29. Yields are creeping up as the markets are pricing in the next rate hike, expected to be 50-75 bps . Nonfarm payrolls gave us some insight into economic conditions: unemployment rose to 3.7%, with a headline miss and downward revision. This suggests that the economy is weakening further, and we are in a period of stagflation. Yields subsequently weakened and we are seeing a slight pivot off 1529. If we rally, we could hit 116'20 or even 117'08. If the figures are hotter than expected it should bolster the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and we could break through 115'29, to 115'03.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
SPY - Volumes fell off on Decline Many Sellers (Bears) missed the Selloff, and many Buyers (Bulls) failed to take profits at the 199 EMA tap. Frustration abounds and will remain leading to many emotional trades being placed for both sides. Indices traded into the Lows of their ranges and held for 3 days. Buyers need a TOSS to get things going to the upside for 420+. Buyers need to not hear Powell so much as mention QT. This needs to be avoided with Rates the primary focus. Should he deviate into Quantitative Tightening - all bets are off. We see the rounded lows in the 1 Hour Chart and the Couuntertrend channel - now we simply see if the throw over short squeeze (TOSS) holds on GDP. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ After yesterday's -1175 NYSE Tick @ 12:15 PM EST - doubts began to arise once again. The SPX dragged everything lower in several minutes. Volatility intra-day spiked and created further uncertainty. 4164 was the Key Pivot for the ES - the front run 4162. During Globex, it crushed this level by 21 Handles. NQ Pivoted over the Ghost Level @ 13013 during Globex. Tesla crossed the $300 Level with New POs for 2022 $333 to $425 issued by Investment Banks. NVDA had issued enough forward warnings to be mildly impacted after issuing its EPS / Guidance. Debt Forgiveness in an Election Cycle is purely Political theatre. Powell is due to provide clarity on his position through September tomorrow beginning at 10 AM EST during a day of very heavy Macro Data. Fundamentally - it will be an extraordinary day for trading, so best of trading in advance. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Of Concern: 2YY - 2 YEar Yield Futures are approaching 3.5% - for now and again this is the power of Now - The Effective Federal Funds Rate is 2.53%. The 2 Year is getting close to pricing in a 100 Basis point Hike. DX/DXY remain in a structurally sound uptrend, pullbacks are quite normal. Until the EU issues its next rate decision on September 15th - the DX is free to roam about. It is important to acknowledge the prior Highs were bested... this is important as it implies the 112s will be arriving in the near future. Although the 10 Year is being permitted to lift in assisting the Yield Curve's reduced inversion, it's frankly not a material concern as Yields continue to rise across the Curve. FX Traders took the 6E (Euro) downtown below Par due to Economic conditions and not Rate Parities. The NatGas to Crude correlations are disturbing - $410 - yesterday the Media upped it from $520 to $1000. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Patience into Powell will be the best Trade imho. Good Luck, the Bigger setup is 25 hours away ;)
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5