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XAUUSDHello traders. Gold is unstoppable. It has not retraced at all to any fibonacci levels or whatever. Last time it touched the demand area of 1618, it bought straightly up. Two consolidation boxes during this formation of uptrend. On 15 of August, close to 180x area, there was the starting point of the last bearish leg for gold. price violated 1680 area and created new key levels around 1616. Now, due to weak USD the price has been immensely increased. 1780 - 1790 area may give nice sell opportunities but I am more into the scenario of 1805 area. This seems to be more interesting in price action of recent months and this will be the key resistance level range. It is highly possible to open at highs and go for 1800 psychological point. However, patience is key and thing will get cleared on Tuesday's night and starting of Assian Session, when it may give reversal for gold. Keep at your watchlist DXY, US10 Years Yield Bonds as well 30 years Yield bonds. When these three start getting green and upcoming week fundamentas related to dollar give a breath to the currency, gold will drop.If they support dollar. Otherwise, this scenario is not valid anymore and we go for a break - retest of 1813 area and long continuation. Multiple ideas either for buys or for shorts. Others with good RRR other with poor. But still valid. Good luck!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by The_Forex_Path
XAGUSDHello traders. These are my scenarios for possible xagusd continuation. tomorrow is Monday so I propose stay away from the markets until the makers initiate the week's structure. Be careful of mid week reversal - Tuesday night. The orders of sell and buys are indicating in order to have a benchmark. For entries do your own analysis in lower timeframes. Keep an eye of Yields 30Y and 10Y as well as of DXY. If they are red this will fly and vice versa. Retails sales from USA incoming this week with pessimist point of view. 23.8 as Fib Retracement level is important.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by The_Forex_Path
Gold Weekly Forecast 14-18.11Last week I targeted 1760 level and the bias was right. Price moved even more and faster, without retracements. This week my bias is bullish again and I will share my confirmations with you. I am expecting from Gold to go a little bit higher, reaching daily manipulation zone and the monthly pivot point. After that a retracement is expected. Price moved up very fast, leaving an inefficiency behind. For a healthy trend price must to move without imbalance or small one. Other reason that I am expecting a retracement is, because lot of retail traders seeing this big move will buy Gold. The institutions want their money and will manipulate price down. Price should go down and test the previous daily manipulation zone, before continue up. This is a very strong level of confluence - manipulation zone, monthly pivot, Fibonacci retracement (61,8%-70,5%), 50% of the consolidation, strong psychological level, very strong SnR. This will be the perfect scenario. If you have issues to draw the manipulations zones, the indicator will do it instead you ( SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Zones) COT Reports will be released on Monday, so I can not include them into Analysis, but we have enough information to make the forecast. Macroeconomics The market sentiment has changed. CPI reading showed significant slowing down of inflation. FED already announced that they can hike the rates above 4,5% if the inflation is not going down, but now there are speculations that FED will be more dovish. Market already priced in and made huge bullish impulse move. There are speculations that FED overreacted and the monetary policy is too tight ,thats why they will go with smaller pace or even pause the rate hike. There are signs that China is easing the Covid restrictions. This should increase the demand for Gold. More info you can get from the my monthly economical report. Right now the Yields are not so attractive for the investors and the issues with cryptos leave no choices for investments, except the metals. Buying banks + investors = big bullish moves Sector Metals The whole sector is going up. I dont see divergence. This is confirmation that there is no anomaly and Gold should continue up. Advanced Market Structure Higher highs and lower lows can be labelled from everyone, even indicators - for example "SFC Smart Money Manipulation - Structure, Liquidity". On this chart I am presenting you an advanced understanding of the market structure. This give me the ability to make projections and get idea how eventual the market can move. According to my count, price formed Long Term Low (LTL) and this is indication that this Low will hold, at least for a while. Price already broke the key level, which is indication that the main trend is changing. If price break the critical level this will be the confirmation. On this chart we can see that price is forming Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. This chart looks like to me as ICT buy model. Top-Down Analysis Monthly Price is making a huge monthly candle. This is typical, when institutions are buying. When they are buying, we should buy too :). If we analyse the candles, we will see that when price is dropping it makes small candles, but when is pushing it makes big candles. This means that the main trend is bullish. Weekly Pretty much the same story - very big weekly candle, definitely anomaly in price action, meaning that something is happening. Price already made high confluence buy setup and we saw the result. After this big candle I am expecting some retracement to a cover part of the imbalance. Daily On daily TF price is breaking every last lower high, meaning that structure is changed or changing. Behind the big candles are the banks. Yields 10 Years Yields already pivoted by forming the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. 2 Years Yields also turned very sharply, by breaking the bullish channel. The bullish Yields were only competitor for the Gold, but they are no longer an issue. Now Gold can start to acting as inflation hedging asset. GDX and XAUUSD They both go up, no divergence. It is a confirmation for the direction. GDX already started its retracement. Now is XAUUSD's turn. My opinion is that GDX will test the consolidation, before continue up. Last few weeks XAUUSD was underperformed against GDX, which lead me that XAUUSD will retrace deeper to 50% of the consolidation, where is my target and confluence of confirmations. Gold-Silver It seems to me that Silver is showing more bullish momentum last few weeks compared to Gold. It already reached a consolidation zone, which means to me, it will retrace or consolidate again. The retracement already has started. Gold should follow Silver and will retrace. Elliot-Wave Analysis I follow and label the price for a while. My last count suggested that Gold will make a big retracement or started new impulse up ( I wrote in my last forecast). In current economical situation and price action, I believe that the new impulse already started. VSA On this chart I marked the current Wyckoff patterns and made my projection for the future patterns. In my opinion the last lower low was only a fake-out(spring) to clear the major liquidity at 1680 area. On this chart we can also see that price lost the bearish momentum in the consolidation and created bullish one. Another confirmation for the new bullish trend. Momentum From this chart we can see that the momentum already turned and now is showing bullish momentum. Price already reached the long term moving average. From MA normally price bounce a bit before break it. RSI is has bullish momentum and is about to break the consolidation range. Right now is in overbought condition, which is one more confirmation that Gold will retrace. For more information contact me.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SerpentForexClub
3
What is happening to Bitcoin and Crypto?!! Wow.... I think that yesterday is a day that no one was expecting and was ready for! As we are seeing Bitcoin making newer lows due to the bad environment we cannot tell what is about to happen next. But we have some data to look at. We are seeing that BTC wallets with 10k BTC are making a new ATH and they are not getting liquidated. Most of the people are interested in opening a low the moment BTC hits a newer low resulting in a strong bounce back up. The DXY is on the edge of falling down just like the Yields. Tomorrow the CPI numbers will get released so expect even more volatility in de markets. Trade safe and don't let emotions take over your trading decisions.
by Mynameisnotrelevant
US-DOLLAR falls with rising YIelds? NonSense!Hey tradomaniacs, we currently see weird correlations as YIELDS are going up (especially shorter-term-yields which are likely to move up faster when facing a recession) while the US-Dollar falls. As you might know, this makes less sense and we should soon see who one of those is lying. The mixed NFP-Result which was actually bearish for stocks (not in detail due to poor jobs) is causing a little bit of confusion. Technically we could see a bounce in USD... or a breakout soon? Will YIELDS go down and stocks pump? Since market bets against FED its getting tricky again! We might see again correlations with sense and more moves after CPis on thursday. What do you think?
TVC:DXY
by Trading2ez
1
US Dollar Index ForecastDemand for the dollar is usually high as it is the world's reserve currency. Other factors that influence whether or not the dollar rises in value in comparison to another currency include inflation rates, trade deficits, and political stability. The dollar has been gaining strength against the currencies of other major economies. The dollar is strong because the US economy is healthier than those of many other countries and because the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates. Does the dollar get stronger with higher interest rates? But the overriding reason for the strong dollar is the fight against inflation. The Federal Reserve is ratcheting up interest rates to attack the current near-constant rise in prices and said last week it expects more hikes this year. As it continues to raise rates, the dollar will strengthen. <-- https:// tradingeconomics.com/ united-states/ interest-rate ---> How do bond yields affect the dollar? Bond yields actually serve as an excellent indicator of the strength of a nation's stock market, which increases the demand for the nation's currency. For example, U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar. <--- https:// ycharts.com/indicators/ 10_2_year_treasury_yield_spread --->
TVC:DXYLong
by domotswiri
Strong Reversal SPY/SPX IHFundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to blow through cash to build the metaverse. -3 month/10 year yields inverted -Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days. -BOJ intervention -Canadian central bank increasing just .5 -Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs -Russians talking nuclear attacks Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm. -Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside. Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZaphodBeebz
US10Y Huge Bearish Divergence on RSI calls a drop!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside. What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always pulled-back and hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is currently at 3.563 (and rising). A reversal on the bond yields can have a major impact on the financial markets, especially ahead of next week's Fed Rate Decision, as it is negatively correlated with stocks and Gold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders, I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area. I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas. For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest. Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields. However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December. You can share your ideas on the comments!!! Good luck!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by The_Forex_Path
2
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618
Reverse Head and Shoulders Breakout in 30 Year Bond YieldVery clear reverse head and shoulders, a very strong chart pattern indicator for long term tops and bottoms, target is 3.6% yield on the 30 year bond. A retest of the neckline will confirm a very strong possibility of the target being reached. On the macro side, I think yields will be forced lower over the next 1-5 years. I'm looking to go all in on leveraged bonds if and when the the 3.6% yield is reached, or if CPI starts showing significant weakening.
TVC:TYX
by RPM3231342
SPY - Larger ContextLet's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away. Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish. It may, however, be cringeworthy. NQ below 200 W SMA. What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below this most important of level @ 3585.55. Powell - simple... NO CHANGE. ____________________________________________________________________________________ There has been a very orderly decline since The Terrible Tetons. The Monthly Gaps below remain wide open for Business, but - the Gaps above, not so much. It would take an extraordinary/non-binary Event to Fill those for now. We will see what further Fiscal attempts at remedy appear as we approach the Mid-Term Elections. I have November 7th as an important Pivot in Time, unsure as to why. It is however extremely significant as it keeps making appearances in Time on a great many studies. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Risks remain to the downside Short Term. Intermediate-Term will depend on an October Communique from the Market Overlords aka "Behnchods". The Chart is self-explanatory / it illustrates the Risk / Reward clearly. What was most interesting this week was how Wall Street was extremely agile in positioning. Options positioning was done with extreme Velocity / Scope / Scale. Executed perfectly to cause maximum confusion until it was too late for the boat to right itself. They capsized small Specs, repeatedly by loading the woodshed on the Sell in record time. And then, proceeded to close out Open Interest as quickly as it appeared once Payment was secured. Unfortunately, the House continued to press the SELL once they'd squared @ 365.06 on the SPY. The VIX and SPX, ES, NQ, YM - Inverse Gamma Hedging was NOT unwound but pressed quite hard. Gold - Lower for the nearer term, it is a broken trade, it can RT, but it will fail. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Here was the Implied Skew and Range I calculated Thursday for the Friday Dance Mix: Call Skew ATM $ 53,140,489.00 384.94 43.41% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent PUT Skew ATM $ 122,410,005.00 384.94 230.35% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent The Close came off the Pivot after dipping in ever so slightly with 368 for the SPY Close based upon the collapse of Open Interest - closing at 367.95. Wall Street ran the implied range @ 19.88 by 1.79 - a small expansion to 21.67. Close enough, MaxPain had the SPY pinned @ 387... their data sets were off by a very wide margin - an absurd failure on their effort. Here is the Open Data Set: Calls O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 375 179749 2.23 100 $ 40,084,027.00 376 155605 1.77 100 $ 27,542,085.00 377 115204 1.37 100 $ 15,782,948.00 380 175276 0.56 100 $ 9,815,456.00 $ 93,224,516.00 Puts O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 370 218394 0.89 100 $ 19,437,066.00 372 110857 1.43 100 $ 15,852,551.00 373 116496 1.77 100 $ 20,619,792.00 374 165461 2.18 100 $ 36,070,498.00 375 247727 2.64 100 $ 65,399,928.00 376 95994 3.17 100 $ 30,430,098.00 $ 187,809,933.00 In Sum, do not ever trust MaxPain, do your own work. It is garbage. ____________________________________________________________________________________ The important points in the Chart: Notice where the 55 EMA resides. Observe the Shorter duration of EMA crosses. EMA slopes and ST Fib Levels as both are Neodymium Magnets. Gap Fill Extension Range to and from recent Gap Highs to Implied Price Objective. ____________________________________________________________________________________ On to the Fundamentals: AAII Sentiment has crossed 60% Fear Greed is now 24 breaking into the Extreme Fear base camp The Dollar has its sights set on the 121 / 125 region, please observe the EuroDollar Chart. As well, consider the Dollar's response to BOJ interventions. Bonds are showing immense stress in the system. UST Settlement Failures are a disturbing account of reality. Defaults are mounting Globally, (See UK $500B recent Default last week). Yield Inversion simply continues to accelerate in fits and starts. Forwards for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7's are heading to 5%. A 40-Year Freak Out as Yield Inversion has exceeded 50%. FX - Default dislocations throughout the Markets can lead to a near Instant Spike in the Dollar contrary to those who are Bearish on the DXY. Yes, it will indeed collapse - your timing... it's off is all. Bitcoin - SUB 10K IMHO with ease - see Trendline. It is important to remember with EPS ahead - the Mega Caps breaking down... after 3 reductions to lower guidance since August... Sellers are piling into Apple once again, with good reason, it looks horrific. Weakness is everywhere in MegaCaps. Breadth - collapsing TRIN - Horror Show TRIX - Ditto Market Internals - No Nieno ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Contrarian Traders are likely early, hopefully, we see a small RT Monday for Wall Street to reposition. Have a great weekend. if you enjoyed this and found it of value, please give it a thumbs up and do share your thoughts - it is appreciated.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
13
Effective Fed Fuds 2023 - Powell's War on You Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy. 1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs. 2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs. 3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything. _________________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks Powell - Bonds are going to see a Yield Curve Inversion, larger than usual. There is no single condition, what is the term premium on Longer Rates is what matters most. Powell - Housing will see a significant correction, we want the housing market back on a sustainable path. Powell - Equities are overvalued, period, the end. We're committed to "Price Stability" Powell - The US should not return to a Gold Standard - Digital Currency is the path. Powell - We flooded the System with Money (Digitally) by buying Bonds now we are selling them. _________________________________________________________________________________ Forward Rates are indicating he is very serious. I've warned about this for well over a year now - safe to say its come to pass.
CBOT:ZQU2023
by HK_L61
2
DXY Makes New Highs After the FOMCThe DXY got a strong burst of momentum from yesterday's FOMC. Although we got our 75 bps hike (as expected), the press conference that followed was a lot more somber. Powell forecasted more hikes, despite the markets expectations of a more dovish forward guidance. This fueled an interest rate spike in treasuries, and bolstered the DXY's meteoric rally to break through highs and hit our target of 111.37 exactly. Recall that we have been projecting this level for weeks. Currently we are seeing a bit of a pullback which is anticipated. We should see support at 110.20, and potentially a sideways correction from here.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
The Bond Market Reacts to the FOMCBonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels to determine support levels further down. Our targets are 115'03 and 115'29 if we get our relief rally.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
SPY - Apres Powell & The Double DipJackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview. Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range? That is a suicide, assured. See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day. That Chart is simply NASTY. The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower. It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will become a brushfire. Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes. Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex. Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity. Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022. Technically the Markets do not support Buyers. Liquidity does not support Buyers. Margins do not support Buyers. Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead. Yields do not support Buyers. The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade, I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold. Is there a setup here? No, there is however a great many trades. Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day and Intra-week. It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given. 3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners. NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead. Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead. VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of... arrived. Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times. You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in TLT. Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO will not provide lasting support. Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again. Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension. Sentiment - Terminal. In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not? ________________________________________________________________ Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate. Fixed. Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly, but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday. ___________________________________________________________________ Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into March of 2024. The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on 10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve. My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6% into 2023. It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022. 2019/2020 is the present Base. ___________________________________________________________________ I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention. Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time filling the Gap at 235. ___________________________________________________________________ Good Luck & Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14