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Yields

FR US yields vs EURUSDInterest rates are crucial in the movement of currencies. The blue is EURUSD. Those things are not 100 percent correlated but it is something that needs to be paid attention to. In this post I will demonstrate the relationship between French American bond yields (interest rates) differential and EURUSD. We use 2 principal yields 2 yearly and 5 yearly composite differential. As you see, once the yields differential hits the resistance or reversal level (here we use DeMark and Camarilla reversal levels) - there is a reaction in EURUSD. EURUSD keeps moving some 30 pips more (fakeout?) and then turns as well. On weekly differential chart we see that the differential is at 0 level after a poor bullish breakout. There is also fractal pattern in play. We also see DeMark monthly pivot squeeze on 60 min (DeMark squeeze predicts volatility and turns in the markets). You may also use German yields instead of French ones - not much difference actually. Both American and European yields are in their lowest levels. German ones dropped below 0.
TVC:FR02YEducation
by ICFX
Scary and Unthinkable: Negative Yields are ComingThe US 10 Year and really, yields around the world, have plummeted to levels no one thought was possible. However, the unthinkable has become thinkable. I believe the US 10 year is likely only a week or so from 0.500 and if the Fed cuts rates again this month (as is likely), we could see 0 by the end of the month. The real question though is will the 10 Year stop at around -0.150 or will it continue to fall? Only time will tell, but the near-term target is 0.000. In reality, it is very possible we can overshoot the lower trend-line to a whopping -1.000 or lower if the global economy shows no signs of any sort of stabilization and the virus continues to drag on and worsen. As we move into 2021, yields will likely stabilize and rise, however, this will not be a good thing. Contrary to other recessions and down-turns where the dollar actually rose, in this impending recession, the dollar (DXY) will fall (tank), Gold will go parabolic, and more worrisome, other commodities could eventually spike given the fall of the dollar. That means we could see a surge in inflation eventually, as fiat currencies lose their value as a result of negative rates. We are certainly entering unprecedented territory and investors must hedge against this unprecedented time by investing in Gold. At this present time, the only equities to seek out are high quality dividend stocks with a history of multi-decade dividend hikes. My favourite in this environment are utility stocks, such as Fortis, which has incredibly high stability and a whopping 46+ year dividend hike increase. This is not the time to be dip-searching because equities have still a long way to fall and still trade at 17-18x forward P/E representing still at-least a 10-15% overvalued market. At some point, the SPX will test the 2600s and we all better hope that level holds or we will see panic like we never thought would be possible again. Under no circumstance can equities have a sustained rally (that doesn't fade) until the 10 year hits at-least the +1.000-1.250 level which could months or years away. - zSplit PS: Once the US 10 Year hits 0, there will likely be some sort of massive algorithmic sell-off waiting to pounce; investors should have SLs ready for this.
TVC:US10YShort
by PaulDeep19131
7
How to play the Corona Virus from a macro perspectiveI am not a virologist, but I understand sentiment and a large part of my trading is looking at where people are overly fearful and where they are too complacent (at a basic level)... It's why I use Twitter so much. It's a great sentiment resource. If you were to do a search for Corona Virus on Twitter, 90% of people are bricking it. But step away from that and you find that people are still going to work, there's only small columns in newspapers talking about it and there's little mention of the amount of people the Influenza (flu) virus kills each year... This will sound crude, harsh and morally reprehensible, but I said to to people that follow me this morning that we want to be selling AUDJPY as a risk proxy (and because the Japanese 10 year is in for a rally, and AUDJPY follows the Japanese 10y yield, paradoxically) and to be taking some off with each new death toll announced, which seems to be revised every few days. As each death toll is announced, we get a greater understanding of the severity, which leads to a greater pricing of risk, and therefore, flattening of volatility. I always say, be aggressive when vol picks up and reduce your position when it flattens. Rinse and repeat, until another big theme emerges. I think the understanding of risk and trade management through the understanding of volatility is one that flies many by... So if you'd like to know how to better manage trades in this fashion, don't hesitate to shoot me a PM!
Short
by FinkPro
ORBEX: Look at Yields for Further Clues in Equities!Equities keep climbing higher on the back of renewed trade and Brexit optimism and also on the back of monetary policy decisions! Interest rates are on hold, but the Fed did cut three times in 2019! Will the surge continue into 2020? And if yes, when can we expect the massive sell-off everyone’s been talking about to take place? ake a pick as we near the end of a cautious year! Timestamps DXY 4H 02:10 SPX 4H 04:10 US Yields 06:10 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:TNX
by Orbex
ORBEX: Investors Brush-Off USMCA Headlines! Softening Dollar?JGB yields brushed off USMCA headlines yesterday and took a positive turn above the zero mark! JGB's haven't been positive since March 2019! Is this hinting that investors turn optimistic on global economies? Or just a shot-lived surge own to auction? Supported by impeachment uncertainty and poor US data yen rose against the greenback yesterday, however, the pound continued sliding on the back of no-deal risks. Will the US and UK GDP figures change the short-term outlook? Canadian retails are also due and they could be causing some short-term moves. Will they help loonie strengthen further? Timestamps USDJPY 1H 01:30 GBPUSD 1H 04:00 USDCAD 1H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
2
US 10-Year Yields Continue to RiseAs global financial markets continue to grind higher and reach new highs, it appears that yields on the US 10-Year Treasury are doing the same. Yields broke through their previous yearly high of 1.899% (Green Resistance Line), settling at 1.943% (as of Nov 10th), and are trying to make a move higher. On a technical basis, yields seem to be forming an "Ascending Triangle" pattern, supported by a rising RSI and MACD, indicating that this recent uptrend has some legs to stand on. This recent bullish action comes as investors are beginning to feel a little bit more optimistic about the global environment as 2019 comes to a close. If 1.899% can hold as a steady short term support for yields, and its momentum continues, the next stop could be its Weekly Resistance Line of 2.042% (Orange Line).
TVC:US10Y
by EconomicsGlobal
10 Year T Note: Triple Bottom. Major long term Buy Opportunity.The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000), detaching it from its previous bearish levels. We are expecting a major cyclical bullish move in the next 2+ years towards at least 32.00. Shorter term investors should look towards the inner Channel Up (dashed lines) for pivotal sell/ buy entries. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TLong
by InvestingScope
10 year T Note: New long term bull cycle emerging?TNX has been trading within a 1M Channel Down since 2000 up until January 2018 when it broke the pattern upwards. The mini uptrend found Resistance on the MA200 and has been declining for the past 7 months. We are currently on the most support tests of all, as it has touched the 2000 Channel's Lower High trend line and will test it as a Support for the first time. If that provides a bounce then we may be at the very beginning of a new very long term bull cycle. A Golden Cross formation should come as confirmation. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TLong
by InvestingScope
Meaningful low set?On the technical side the minimum targets for a Vth wave flattening trend that started since 2011 have been met. This completed sequence show's there is plenty of room to steepen over the coming Quarters. So far we have seen wave A and B of an incomplete ABC. Well done all those who are riding the 'C' leg with us. Best of luck to those who are positioned for the next two levels of interest at 116/117. The biggest picture would suggest there is even more upside over time.
OANDA:USB05YUSDLong
by ridethepig