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A little Elliot Wave Fun - are you ready for what's next?If you are like me, thinking the US markets will act as a safe haven for global capital, then you should clearly see the upside potential if these recent lows hold. If not, then you are seeing the downside risks as more likely - and will want to understand the price structure in place that may prompt some consolidation. IMO, we are amid a Wave 4 correction. Any Wave 4 correction MAY turn into a new price wave structure (ending an ABC wave and starting a new price wave). So, the reality of the current global market trend is... If my analysis is correct, we must rally to new all-time highs. For this to happen, a broad shift in investor sentiment needs to take place. If my analysis is incorrect (related to this being a bottom for the US markets, then we would be anticipating a broad global crisis event related to debts/inflation and other emergencies. I think the US Fed will move to a more moderate rate adjustment schedule while the global central banks deal with credit/debt issues. It does no good to crash the markets to stop inflation. Just like in the 70s & 80s, inflation will weaken as rates stay elevated. It is just a matter of TIME and POLICY. Capital WILL seek out the best investment vehicle in the future. I believe that will be the USD and US ASSETS. What are your thoughts?
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
6
CPI/JOBS Blow a Hole in support - CRUSHED? Cycle Pattern UpdateIf you were watching the markets this morning or were caught unprepared for the huge CPI numbers (which lag), you were probably sweating bullets watching the NQ fall 400+ points in just a few minutes. These reactionary types of price swings can be very dangerous for some traders - especially right now. But, I want to alert you that the NQ has rallied nearly 200+ points off the morning lows and may turn positive by the close of trading on Friday. Do any of you remember my Cycle Patterns? Take a look at 10-13 (CRUSH). 10-10: N/A 10-11: Inside/Breakaway 10-12: Harami/Inside 10-13: CRUSH 10-14: Gap Potential I think the Gap Potential for tomorrow may reflect an upward price gap and may surprise traders if this support level holds. Next week looks very interesting... 10-17: BreakAway 10-18: Carryover 10-19: Temporary Bottom 10-20: Top/Reisistance 10-21: Consolidation I see quite a bit of volatility over the next 10+ days while Earnings and the Fed play central roles in driving price trends. I'm still cautiously optimistic that we'll transition into a Christmas Rally phase throughout most of October. Watch for the US markets to try to setup a base/bottom over the next 4+ weeks. If the market recovers from this morning's lows - lookout. That should be a fairly clear sign the US markets are defending this support level with a vengeance. Damn the Fed!
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
Elliott Wave View: Dips in Dow Futures (YM) Might Find SupportDow Futures (YM) shows incomplete bearish sequence from 1.5.2022 high favoring further downside. The decline from 8.16.2022 high is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.16.2022 high, wave A ended at 30975 and rally in wave B ended at 32789. Index extends lower again wave C towards 28635 which completed wave (W). Rally in wave (X) is currently in progress as a zigzag structure as the 60 minutes chart below shows. Up from wave (W), wave ((i)) ended at 28974 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 28772. Index extends higher in wave ((iii)) towards 30399, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 29933. Final leg higher wave ((v)) ended at 30513 which completed wave A. Wave B pullback is in play to correct cycle from 10.3.2022 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 28646 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for 1 more push higher to end wave C of (X). Afterwards, Index should resume the decline lower in wave (Y). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 1.5.2022 high at 22560 – 27022.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Cycle Patterns Seem To Dominate Predictive TrendsI find it very interesting that my Cycle Patterns predicted the following more than 2 years in advance of this move.. 9-26: Breakdown 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH 9-29: GAP Potential 9-30: Top Resistance 10-1: Consolidation 10-2: Temporary Bottom 10-3: Gap Reversal 10-4: Breakdown 10-5: BreakAway 10-6: Rally 10-7: Carryover 10-8: Bottom 10-9: N/A 10-10: N/A Given what we saw with the SPY price over the past few weeks, could you have identified the Consolidation, Temp Bottom, Gap Reversal, Breakaway, Rally phases this week after everyone else seemed uber-bearish? I know they are not perfect yet, but I'm impressed that these cycle patterns seem to be 60% to 70% accurate within a 48~72 hour window. If they continue to perform well, we should be looking at a MELT UP over the next 10+ days that may start a new Christmas Rally phase. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
New SPY Cycle Patterns for next weekHere are the new cycle patterns for next week and beyond. Let's see how the market react to the Excess Phase Peak Phase 3 support (June lows). Failure of this pattern at this point could prompt a big move higher. 9-23: Momentum Rally 9-24: Rare – Major Reversal 9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH 9-29: GAP Potential 9-30: Top Resistance 10-1: Consolidation 10-2: Temporary Bottom 10-3: Gap Reversal 10-4: Breakdown 10-5: BreakAway 10-6: Rally 10-7: Carryover 10-8: Bottom 10-9: N/A 10-10: N/A 10-11: Inside/Breakaway 10-12: Harami/Inside 10-13: CRUSH 10-14: Gap Potential 10-15: Gap Reversal 10-16: Breakdown 10-17: BreakAway 10-18: Carryover 10-19: Temporary Bottom 10-20: Top/Reisistance 10-21: Consolidation 10-22: CRUSH 10-23: Gap Potential 10-24: Gap22 Potential 10-25: N/A 10-26: Breakdown 10-27: Harami/Inside 10-28: CRUSH 10-29: GAP Potential 10-30: Top/Resistance 10-31: Consolidation 11-1: Bottom 11-2: UP/Down/Up 11-3: Base/Rally 11-4: BreakAway 11-5: Carryover WARNING: There are TWO warning signals on the Short-Term cycle modeling system we need to pay attention to. These may become bigger issues for traders if they compound with other factors. 9-1-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK) 9-4-2022: Temporary Bottom10 9-10-2022: Rally11 (Bullish) 9-13-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK) 9-23-2022: Momentum Rally As I stated earlier, I see the easiest path for the US markets to take as staying within one of the THREE Pennant/Flag patterns I highlighted in the charts (above). This means we are likely to see a moderate Christmas rally phase which may trend more sideways than upward. Last week’s major cycle research trigger: My cycle research suggests the following is HIGHLY LIKELY. _ 1999 : Major Top ( Start of DOT COM event ) _ 2003 : Bottom/Disruption _ 2006.3 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( Start of GFC event ) _ 2010 : Major Bottom _ 2013.7 : Strengthening Price Trends _ 2019.5 : Disruption ( COVID ) _ 2022.5 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 1 ) _ 2027 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 2 ) There will be some great opportunities for 3% to 5%+ swings in the markets going forward – but I don’t see many great opportunities to get involved in any new long-term positions yet. Stay very liquid at the moment (mostly in CASH). We’ll see how things progress towards the holidays and into early 2023.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Current SPY low is < 1% from the June 2022 lows - Double Bottom?My cycle patterns suggest a rally phase is likely over the next 7+ trading days - but, the trend is very bearish today. It is almost as if the markets are flushing out stop levels - actively seeking a support level near the June 2022 lows. It will be very interesting to see how the market ends today. If we see a big recovery rally into the close, it may support my cycle patterns predictions of a rally phase leading to what may be a new support level near $365. If it continues to sell downward, then I will be forced to admit my cycle patterns FAILED today. That means I'll have to spend hours studying why this failed and if I can make any improvements to my cycle pattern qualifiers/code. I will state that my predictive modeling suggests a rally phase is still likely. So, we'll see what happens as the day progresses. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Big Cycle Pattern Day - Momentum Rally DayThat means the SPY should find immediate support (after it appears a big GAP downward reflecting Europe's recession concerns). Here's a little hint: Bitcoin will likely rally along with the SPY/ES and others over the next 7+ days. The strength of the US economy/US Dollar may drive global investors into US assets and safe-havens throughout the end of 2022 - possibly setting up a very strong Christmas Rally phase. Remember, this was all predicted over 3 years ago by a major cycle event. I have every day mapped out all the way past 2026 and beyond. Next week should be very exciting. The potential for the markets to rally higher is high. There is a CRUSH day (9-28) that may represent some type of corrective price event, but other than that one day, the momentum appears to be to the upside. Hope you guys are enjoying these? Please comment or let me know if you find these valuable in any way/form? Follow my research...
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
8
Cycle Pattern - Tomorrows Momentum Rally PatternIs it really that hard to believe that tomorrow could shift gears and move into a moderate momentum rally after the Fed raised rates 75bp? What I find incredibly interesting about these patterns is how they can paint a very clear picture of the opportunities and shifting market trends. Each day is clearly defined (except for the N/A days). Each day paints a picture of what to expect and potential trend. Reading all this data as a story or narrative provides us a very innovative way to address allocation levels, risks/opportunities and trends. Given the market volatility and trending, I would still suggest addressing any potential momentum rally with some caution. Trade smaller amounts and look to pull away from position before the close of trading on Friday. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events: 1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs. 2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell. 3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31 and VIX Curve inversion. Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of which there are 3 events: 1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and intends to remain vigilant. 2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. 3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important timeframe for the FED. ______________________________________________________________________ Nature abhors a Vacuum. As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s. Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made higher velocity movements recently. The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the prior 2 most recent curve inversions. The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week and next. Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine. That will not happen today IMHO. Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase. This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter and far more volatile than prior cycles. ______________________________________________________________________ Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows. It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again. ______________________________________________________________________ Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability of profit. The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement. Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance. The key to success is to close the position within a few days. I am taking ATH only. ______________________________________________________________________ Trade Safe & Good Luck.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
12
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned. Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82). Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday. For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed off to parts unknown. That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks, Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do. There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain. Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn. ______________________________________________________________________________ Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry: SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20) SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage. It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts. On to the Chart ______________________________________________________________________________ Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen. The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but over time. We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise, "Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens. For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853. Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly. RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st. Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise 100BPS, but 75BPS". We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral. I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity. Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further. Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize. Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle. ______________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them. Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns... 9-19: Inside/BreakAway 9-20: BreakAway 9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion) 9-22: Inside/BreakAway 9-23: Momentum Rally *9-24: RARE - Major Reversal *9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown201 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish) * = weekend I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week. But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend. The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH. Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings. We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity. Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar. Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support. The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision. Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel. Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening. Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally Day. Ready for it?My cycle patterns suggest today is a Reversion/Reversal/Rally day. I know it may seem strange to think that the US market may rally today after the CPI/PPI inflation data and the pending Fed rate increase - but it is what the cycle patterns say it is. Remember, these patterns originate from a date 3+ years ago and just tell me what to expect from price on certain days. I read them like words making up a sentence. Multiple bullish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bullish price trend. Multiple bearish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bearish price trend. Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally day. If we see a big rally in the SPY today - I will be content that my cycle patterns are really nailing these daily market cycles/setups. I mean - where else can you know what is likely to happen weeks or months in advance of price actually DOING IT? Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Elliott Wave View: Near Term Rally in Dow Futures (YM) Should FaShort term Elliott Wave view on Dow Futures suggests the decline from 8.17.2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.17.2022 high, wave A ended at 31221. Wave B corrective rally ended at 32791 with internal subdivision as an expanded Flat structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 32029. Wave ((b)) extended below wave A in 3 swing and ended at 30975. Index then rallied in wave ((c)) as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 31681 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 31303. Index extended the rally higher in wave (iii) towards 32612, dips in wave (iv) ended at 32488 as triangle, and final leg higher wave (v) ended at 32791 which completed wave ((c)) of B. YM has started to turn lower in wave C. Internal subdivision of wave C should unfold in 5 waves. Expect wave ((i)) of C to end soon with a marginal low, then Index should rally to correct cycle from 9.13.2022 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing in wave ((ii)) before turning lower again. As far as pivot at 32791 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday. After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes. News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends. Stay tuned.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY / SPX / ES - $USD Smacked / 6E breaks Par - the LIFT The USD pulled back overnight on the ECB's 75 BPS Hike, until the October 21st FOMC Rate decision is announced the DXY can easily see downside pressure. Traders began to move against the Dollar as Major Asian Markets opened and again - ahead of the EU Session open @ 3 AM EST, by 3:30 AM EST. The Inversion lift was provided to the ES NQ YM RTY GC & SI @ 3 AM ET - straight up 20 Handles for the ES. Boom went the Stimulus in FX. Even Crude managed to lift over the 85.02 Pivot. Financials - XLF / NQBANK / KRE etc. are going to have a Stick Save day ahead. 1 & 2Yr Bills will see some much-needed consolidation after the short end has gone parabolic over since Wyoming Powell. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Yesterday's increase in Put activity provided the required Globex Squeeze and extension as upon the NYSE open there will be continued closing of Trades which have gone sideways. Sentiment and Positioning had swung to a sell-side weighting. Lael Brainard provided a pivotal comment - "The FED is aware of over-tightening." - this was all the Bid required to infer further "Pivot" chatter with respect to the Policy Cushion of overdoing tightening. 2.53% Fed Funds - 8.5% Inflation... overtightening? You do the Math. - it was all the Bulls needed to gain confidence in the Build Back Better Rally. __________________________________________________________________________________________ SPY Pivots are as follows for Friday: Trendline Support - 391.88 Baseline Supports - 395.22 / 396.44 / 397.61 Pivot for Higher - 401.56 provides a Throw over to 405.04 to 407.11 OR the .382 Fib of the recent High to Lows - it should remain overhead Resistance for today. 400.25 is the over / under into the open. Will late chasers see a hammer... not until the Puts are run off. Friday's Gap Fills come in at 77.22% - having been surpassed by Thursday @ 80.13%. Today may be quite different, the Gap does not need to fill today until after 11 AM EST, IF at all. Bots adore Gaps. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Are Institutions bidding Markets? No, they are not - Large Traders are, however. Above 400 on Friday and holding into the Close will provide "continuation thinking." There is just enough Liquidity returning to provide interest and Organic Buying. The Next Gen Squeeze awaits at 407.22 to 407.41. __________________________________________________________________________________________ This can run further as expectations have been set for a weaker CPI next Tuesday. Bullhorns have been blaring into the Bears Camp - they hear confirmation bias only to be dropped into the Dunk Tank time and again - a pattern that frankly repeats itself over and over. Bloomberg begins chortling on about "New Lows, 3400, Breaking 3600, Hawkish this/that" and it gains mindshare traction... quickly. Many traders are swing for the Triple when they would be far safer loading the bases with Singles, Balks, Walks, and chalk. Low Volume - let's leave it as Volumes are building. On Balance, Market Internals were improving off very low levels in the OSC's reaching Sub 300 with 388 and 475 being the Crash outliers from prior events. Summations held the Zero Line and turned in a clear Divergence. It remains a Bear Market IMHO until we see the 50 retake the 200. And speaking of EMA's/SMA's... they are very potent attractors - in particular defending 50/100 crosses. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Trade Safe through early September - it's not as many believed, 11/19 has been Higher over the last 20 years - will this be 12 or 9... we'll see - Magic 8 Balls aside, expect Higher VX @ 1.5 to 3% on either side of the Tape. Never discount the Effects of VOX ROLL?SETTLE timing. Good Luck to you. HK
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
9
SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the ScriptHigher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows at the 390.85 Level. 394 is backtesting Support 399.50 is the initial Resistance. Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer Credit @ 3 PM EST. "We're committed to maintaining our Policy" Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower. Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade. The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup. _______________________________________________________________________ Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake. Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%. ________________________________________________________________________ X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs. We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October. The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher. VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot. Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied). DX can pull back to 108.50. ________________________________________________________________________ Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive then Tuesday was Negative. NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick. Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying. A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the Trendline will need to provide extreme support. Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly. Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level. Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7% ________________________________________________________________________ Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish. Good Luck and Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
3
Bitcoin should be very close to a major bottom right nowMy analysis suggests Bitcoin needed to move below the $18.9k level in order to setup a new momentum base - then launch to levels above $25k (possibly targeting $30k or higher). I suggest Bitcoin traders start to look for a base/bottom setup below $18.8 (if possible) as I expect a very big rush to safety taking place over the next 60+ days. I believe this flight to safety will be the result of some geopolitical event - not a Fed event. Possibly China/Russia or somewhere else. My research suggests the second half of 2022 is highly likely to include a major cycle inflection trigger. Watch OIL, GOLD, SILVER, US Dollar and other major indexes. Something very big is going to hit between now and the end of September 2022. Bitcoin should start to bottom and then move above $23k fairly quickly - possibly within 10+ days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY / SPX / ES - Shortened Week AheadAugust did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure. RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex. TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates? At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging on... slightly. Will the VIX Spike to 38 to 41? The ES would need to collapse to and through 3600, SPY clearly to new lows. VVIX is seeing the out-of-control setup - Few Puts in SPY, Few participants in VIX Calls due to IV. Prices sit at the most Pivotal area. Volimes are the main takeaway. Cumulative NYSE TICK took us sideways into the Close. Is the selling slowing down... that will depend on whether we see compression this week within a trading range. Friday was a Trending Day. Can Buyers Create Balance here? It will require a SOH on the SELL SIDE. Market Internals need to HOLD. Look below and fail is open as well. 11 of the past 19 September's ended up with 8 ending Down. The past 20 years have been highly volatile and I find it a generational approach more relevant than the overall historical as HFT/ALGO Trading has become dominant with increased Volatility - It's my approach this September. Alladin will be extremely busy this Month - chalking up further gains for Blackrock. The Quarterly close will provide important answers to a Trend in decline at present. It is somewhat overstretched on OSCs, but Summation Indexes have more work to do. This can provide ever-increasing Volatility as we see the VIX Curve pricing in expanding VX for several months. VIX - % Contango SEP M1 @ 3.90% OCT M2 @ 1.80% NOV M3 @ 0.37% DEC M4 @ 3.30% JAN M5 @ 0.25% FEB M6 @ 0.82% MAR @ Par with FEB _________________________________________________________________________________________ Year to Date - August opened the Dunk Tank once Powell delivered his May FSR Objective affirmation for Asset Prices and Interest Rate Forward Guidance. Winners: Energy + 30.10 % Utilities + 5.64 % Losers: Consumer Non-Cyclical -6.55 % Financial -10.81 % Transportation -15.08 % Basic Materials -15.26 % Technology -31.79 % Healthcare -26.92 % Consumer Discretionary -26.06 % Services -21.44 % Capital Goods -20.45 % Retail -18.52 % A very brutal 2022 into the month of September - where Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes are within poor Structure. August SPY Monthly provided a very nasty inverted Hammer. Sellers stepped up in spades at the Highs and Sold to the opening Print, and through the Opening Print - to close on lows. September's opening print did not hold the lower Body Bar on Friday - a poor close to the week with options settlement into the Cash Session. Buyers were non-responsive at best. Sellers sold through on increasing volume for the 3rd consecutive day. September's big events are ahead - the 13th CPI. Powell will provide color commentary on the 21st. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Last Month's Price action served to expand the range for Major Indices. Monthly timeframes continue to hold Lower Highs, not a good look from the June Lows at present. The 379.92 Level is the .382 and Pivotal for the Month of September, it is presently the initial implied Lower Range for the SPY on the confirmed break and closing below the Trend Line Support. SPY 50% resides at 349.12 - the opening to a larger and lower low - into the Gap Fill @ 338.50. Obviously larger targets below on increased panic and further Selling. Price is currently sitting on top of what was prior support. _________________________________________________________________________________________ I have cautioned for some time, Rates were a distraction too far larger issues within the Global Economy. Repeatedly. There are 3 legs to this stool. Forward EPS, which remains incredibly high based upon earnings projections and their required adjustment too far lower expectations. These have been partially priced in after Powell dropped the Hammer. There is more work to do there. QT remains a recycling operation - in through the out door with the appearance of an aggressive FED - while advancing CBDC via FED NOW/FED DIRECT at an increasing pace for Rollout. This and 41067 won't bode well for Crypto IMHO. Simply adding to the avalanche of impending exits which can be triggered by any panic in trade. _________________________________________________________________________________________ After large declines for all Major Indices... we've never seen a real Flush down panic, not one. This is a once in 100 years Bear Market and it will be difficult to navigate as the Algorithms are growing increasingly predatory. Be careful out there, reduce Size and be on guard for increasing VX in September. Bearish Sentiments @ AAII are rising to 50.6% again. Stop runs on trailers and catching traders offsides should be anticipated. We will see if the breakdown hammers this lower or price can manage to consolidate in a larger range this week - expanding to the downside but providing outsized squeezes based on the Gamma / Delta. _________________________________________________________________________________________ A Break of 388.96 has the potential and higher probability of creating a massive flush down and panic move to the downside. Price is currently sitting on top of DOM Support or what many refer to as a Volume Node, I'm old, Depth of Market (DOM) is my preferred nomenclature. 3 Weeks of selling favors the Sellers - expected moves will produce lower Highs in Trend. Daily DT is another large Lower Low. The Daily TF is the confluence with the Trendline @ 390.85 - BREAKING THIS will get nasty. Buyers will absolutely need to defend early this Week, 399.50 may limit the upside in the Range. 379 to 399.50 is the Larger Range this week. 408.25 breaks a Potential Bear Flag. Sector Support appears to be a Risk OFF in ALL Sectors. HYG will provide leading indications as will XLF - breakdowns here would be very NEGATIVE. Can Buyers consolidate here... we will see. Take care and be cautious - trade Safe, Lower highs in the XLK will provide entry into the Trend.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5
SPY - Becoming Oversold ST / And...What a mess, a very violent and choppy mess of a Market. Let's see if they can recapture the 377... It's a Buy/Sell Hall of Mirrors with the 1 Hour Death Cross being a 199/377 2X affair. The Range continues to expand - from 388 to 404s For the ES - 3910 to 4120. NQ - 12070 to 12714/12818 ________________________________________________ The week is young, it's Algo Wednesday, best to be on guard for a potential squeeze. And then Failure perhaps next week on a shortened week. There are 67K 400 Puts for the SPY. Apple - expanded new Range 153.70 to 164.10, Tesla 840 to 892 ADP Friday (300K), Fed Speakers reiterating their Position all week, with the DX, VX, and Rates lending ample confusion. The DX can pull Back to 107s and remain in trend to 112. Yields - 2YY vertical wedge, 10's remain in a longer-term uptrend. VX - 8 Count ST Highs - as we move into Friday it's due to pullback or explode, toss a dart. Crude was sold to the late chasers, it dumped hard to a key pivot which IF broken revisits 85. Weekly Charts - See Goog... just nasty. _________________________________________________________ Next CPI September 13, FED on Sept. 21. It's a laundromat Monday every day until this timeframe. Short term it has been whipsaws to further downside. RSI divergence short term, MACD moved into Negative, AO has as well. Rejection 3x. PC elevated... Meme / BTC wrecked. What a complete mess. Mixed signals in a downtrend are the most dangerous place to trade.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
4