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Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Ending Wave 5Short Term Elliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM) suggests rally from December 2, 2021 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from December 2 low, wave 1 ended at 36030 and dips in wave 2 ended at 34547. Index then resumes higher in wave 3 towards 36572 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 36120. The internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at 36121, wave ((b)) ended at 36435, and wave ((c)) ended at 36125. Wave 5 is currently in progress as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 36347 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 36153. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 36804. Near term, as far as pivot at 36125 low stays intact, expect wave ((iv)) dips to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for 1 more push higher to end wave ((v)). The move higher should also complete wave 5 of 5 of ((1)) in higher degree. Afterwards, expect a larger pullback in 3 waves at least to correct cycle from December 2, 2021 low.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
YM - Weekly / Rotation Trade Failure @ PresentThe INDU/DOW/YM illusion remained strong until it did not. After the FED Squeeze to complete the Gap FIlls on all Indexes, everything reversed, Growth being the leader. Charts are Hiding the Monthy Break Away due to Continuous Contract in the Futures. See CASH DOW. _____________________________________________________ Not everyone can afford a Mortgage, Cyrptop, and Pokemon resurgence or contemporary Art Collecting. As we lean into EPS for Q4, Alcoa kicks off EPS for the DOW as the Pivot Company January 19th, 2022. Primary Banks and Financials will lead into the Industrials reporting EPS. _____________________________________________________ The Range is interesting as it is quite large with 8000 total Ticks to the Lowest Monthly Gap Fill. 33K is a Gap Fill, 31K remains the Lower Boundary for Now. We may not fill the 28.2K Monthly Gap until later this year, it will depend upon Confidence and unseen/unknown Events. I've mentioned Political turmoil will begin to accelerate into Mid-2022 with those left behind becoming decidedly uncomfortable with their arrangements with regard to Direct Stimulus. Gates will not be looking for Share Croppers. How Capital re-arranges itself will be heavily dependent on Bond Volatility - which was building unit the FED began to crush it with further YCC. A great many variables in front of us.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
YM - 600+ RT TodayOverdue for a Prop after placing a nice DB on the Lower Trendline. The order of the Day, the Straggler - NQ whose Price action is a bit much to stomach at this point. BANK is driving the ES YM RTY Higher as it is now up 3.76% - and has a higher Gap to Fill well above 5K. Sectors rotation to some Value Trades, but remains in Distribution Mode into the Next level of Fills. It should continue to Grind Higher for now. The ES Remains 100 Handles below the Key 4678.25, doubt it can recover that level, but they will attempt it, it's just FED Chits after all. Technically the Damage done remains - Equity Markets will retrace, only to be sold once again. _____________________________________________________________ Underlying Breadth remains terrible and Indicies are being propped via the Usual Heavy Weights. Oil helped provide a boost to confidence overall as it reached the PO and reversed $5. Never hurts to have the Black Gold along for the rise. Bottom Callers are beginning to pick up the pieces for a Year-End Rally. December Volumes Die off after the 17th and with the Pelican out December 14/15 with more bad news - Operators will attempt to make this "Just another 5% decline, a Dip to Buy"
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
DOW - Leads the PlungeLong overdue for NQ RTY ES to play catch up. They finally did, the clock was ticking. ________________________________________ Position - INO / CASH Selling the NYSE open was the Setup as Indicated. Patience and diving in worked quite well - our day was complete prior to 11 AM EST. We closed ALL Sells/Buys in NQ ES RTY YM UVXY VIX VXX and a Few Equities - AMZN TSLA AMC GOOG AAPL MSFT TQQQ __________________________________________ Energy will have a strong recovery as will BioTechs with all the new Covid Variants popping up like Daisies. __________________________________________ All Globex Sells were Closed prior to NYSE Open. The lower lows were not surprising as Ranges expanded with the NQ is now 897 to 786 as the Lower Range. 414/418 NQ Entries were pressed by Sellers and then the Chase after the NYSE open where pressing.500%418s was the order of the AM Session. ES 4505 remains the Pivot for Lower. YM folded up as Indicated, it is the Leader. RTY - Small Caps have very little to gain and have been left for Dead as a parking lot. ____________________________________________ Extended Valuations / PEs / PSs / MArgin / DEBT / Delta all contributed to the long overdue SELL. There was frankly no recovering from the NYSE Plunge - although it was on and the Big 7 were sold in large Size. _____________________________________________ The NQ has some catching up to do on a percentage Basis... _____________________________________________ Not quite the Black Friday everyone was jazzed about. A great many were looking up and with good cause, the Operators kept in play as long as possible but ultimately showed their hands. VX is going to continue to Pick Up. ______________________________________________ Hopefully, we are underway to Visit the 200SMAs - it is very Overdue. Was pleased to see UVXY show its hand as well, Up nicely by 33%. ______________________________________________ Hopefully, everyone here had a very prosperous trading day. Charts will be updated this Weekend. Have a great weekend everyone.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
8
YM - Leaders LeadCrude Oil and the DOW have been the ever-present reminders. Wild Swings for Fills worked for Both. Crude Oil made a 7 Tick Front Run of the 50%, YM Traded it to perfection reaching the Upper Trend Line. We will need to see how the NYSE open Response - Panic Sell into a Waterfall decline or a Retracement into the Next Fill for Lower. c The YM's Range is now down to 33,021 and then 31,112. Quite Large. No need to chase, the 50'% or .382s remain the Fills. Friday, Black Friday to a Retracement into the next Sell __________________________________________________________ We remain SOH until NYSE open closed all Globex Sells and will be 100% CASH for Today until our overhead FIlls are tagged, the probability is they will not be met and we are just fine with this as Globex was a very Profitable GIFT. Freaky Friday is underway.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
4
dowjones must see 35000 area in coming week if + big news not come , dow will see 35000 in green arrow we must put buylimit with sl=80 ok? after open,we must dont close buy soon with little profit , we must wait 10-15 day until fibo 161%( new high minimum 36800 area ) if you have old sells , must close around 35000 and pick buy and wait 15 day until near 37000( dow in way to 40.000) if you have buys(not for hedge buys),you can close around red arrow (support , EMA200 1hour) and wait until 35000 good luck , want you success
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by ramin_trader2006
1
YM - Daily / Weakening StructureLower Price Objective Front Run on Friday's Close. Pinned to Expiry. Lower 35100 Price Objective in Trade. ______________________________________________ DOW leading is never a good sign. It is now in a 13/13 Count with a great many Gaps below all the way down to 28.212. 34,200 33,700 33,100 31,013 The Larger Weekly TF POs. ______________________________________________ Traders find this difficult to Fathom. It will depend on ob the Larger Count Structure we indicated a few weeks back with respect to 4/4 complete or 3/3 Completing. ______________________________________________
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
3
ES NQ YM etal...Well, that was exciting. YM Busted down again. ES failed to Confirm, but likely will next week. NQ - Another Gap below to fill, not terribly bummed it didn't fill, but Solid Profits on Large Positional SELL @ FR of PO. It was interesting NQ had 3 - 609/611 - 621 - 640. Closed 16/32 @ .500% (559s) - 16 Keepers for Monday. We took 50 Handles x 48, more than good enough. _______________________________________________ We are now back in the same position with respect to Delta. They are attempting to generate a Chase in order \to see if Retail will take the Bait. Retail is so far in over their Heads they'll need to Sell Organs to add further Leverage. Therein lies the Problems for Wall Street, there is More to gain Due South. ________________________________________________ Financials Closed roughly Flat on the Day. DX/JPY is of deep concern... Fat DUMP in front of us next few days - IMHO. ________________________________________________ Have a Spectacular Weekend Everyone.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
1
YM - 1 Hour 8/8Day 8 of the Trading Range and the YM continues to weaken. Unable to break above the Speed Settings for both the Momentum and Trending Clouds. ____________________________________________ Equity Holders have used Cash Out ReFi's to purchase more Stocks, while Corporate America is on a Share Buyback Frenzy with $1.021 Trillion CASH Holdings. Overall Debt to Equity Leverage is the Highest Levels across All Streams. Margin Leverage ATHs. ____________________________________________ Extreme Financial Distortions are ever-present and growing.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
NQ - 4Hr + Macro / Gamma - Delta Accident - JPow Fools AgainThe Macro Data Calendar for Today: Non-Farm Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings Unemployment Rate Coupons - $8.425 Billion 2s to 4s. ______________________________________________________ ZN continues to Trade the Lower End of the Range. The BOE Stick saved the US Treasury Market, although FED FUNDS... Disagree - www.cmegroup.com Oops... Again - www.cmegroup.com Powell Blindsided everyone with the Taper while FED FUNDS... Accident moving forward in TIME. 2x Ooops. ______________________________________________________ Our Thesis was the Federal Reserve would begin to move forward, quickly forward to Increase FED FUNDS far more rapidly than the Retail Trader/Investor anticipates. This Thesis has been ongoing since JULY 2021. 2024 to 2023 to 2022 to now 2021. We were Correct - 100% Correct. Thereby creating a large Event taking the Equity Complex to its knees and down to the 200SMAs, where they would find minor support for a Counter-Trend, only to reverse and Trade to closer to the 400SMAs. Nothing, and I am quite resolute in this Thesis, has changed. The Probability has increased substantially - Exponentially. ______________________________________________________ Disagree? Up to you, it is your Capital @ RISK. We continue to mount a large Position in Options for the IMPENDING reversal. ______________________________________________________ NQ will be in 8/9 today, the Price Objective we stated for the Profit Target... was met during Globex @ 16424. SOLD NQ on a FR. Resistance has Traded First. ______________________________________________________ I have been repeatedly Asked in PM @ TV why I am a "Bear" in this Mania. Answer: Continue to chase Gamma/Delta, we Fade it, there is no Top Picking is ongoing, there is, however, an acute understanding of how this ends, and it will. Positioning for it, taking heat... taking losses, all part of the entry. We hold no Underlying Sells in the NQ ES YM RTY. We do Hold Derivatives in the QQQ SPY SMH TQQQ TSLA QCOM TLT AMC AAPL and continue to build on these Positions from November to January. Top pickers have at it, wading in is more our style and we know how to do so with a minimal negative effect - Hedge Underlying. ______________________________________________________ We see a very large Market Dislocation directly ahead. Agree/Disagree - immaterial. It is our Trade Plan and it is not changing, not remotely. ______________________________________________________ The unwind will be of extreme velocity, most will indeed miss the majority of the Negative Price Actions. Presently - 32% Positioned into the impending SELL. ______________________________________________________ Trade Safe everyone - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
2
NQ - Daily: Price is now in the "Box"Wire to Wire Melt-ups is the very definition of an Aggressive Extension. The price moved accordingly within NQ Extension to perfectly hit its first area of Resistance the Heavy Depth of Market Distribution for the next Wave down within the downturn off the High @ 15,708.50. We are now roughly 650 Ticks from the September Highs. or conversely as little more than halfway off the Lows @ 143567.25. The same 2 Draw are shown in the FIB Ladders 1. Ledge @ 15399 to 14367 2. ATH @ 15708 to 14367 The symmetry illustrates how time functions as Intersects are important, they are Pivots for Price in Time when defined correctly, it requires patience to hunt them down if you are relatively inexperienced. e Eventually, you will find them with ease. Within the Symmetry, we see the "Box" - although it will appear tilted, it is our larger retracement Range IF and Only IF this level of resistance is broken and continues to Hold. We have Gaps above and Gaps below, by design... it creates uncertainty, again, by design. We also have, more importantly - the Retracement we were looking for Price attempting to Fill the Gap above. We do not know if this will be a Gap & GO or a Gap & Trap. We see on the smaller Timeframes October 21 as an important Time... On the larger Daily Timeframe - we see November as important. Our Box has a boundary for Time and within it there are a number of dates now which began popping up last week to assert themselves on Shorter Durations. The VIX Crush is underway as the VVIX is being pushed back into our Corner, albeit slowly... ever so slowly. The VXN has 18.60 as the next lower Objective. Price is either going to Over-Throw or consolidate. Typically extensions this Aggressive either continue of Fail in rather Epic proportions. Friday's are always fun, they tend to relieve the most capital from both sides during Expiry... Put holders have been smoked, the large number of Call buyers wants their Payday.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
YM - 1000 Ticks of RangeThe Dow Futures have been an easy SELL at the top of the Range. BUY Side anticipates another BUY at the bottom of the Range. The YM Closed September @ 14,682 and with the High for October at the level of 15001.25 it is well off the prior Months Close, as well, and more importantly - well off the October Highs. The Intra-Day Price swings have been Volatile, with what was hoped to be a solid rotation and lift to 36700 to 37200 as the Economy reopening trade took hold. Delta tossed a large wrench into those Aspirations... Recently, we have seen wild stops runs during Globex, only to be slammed into @ the witching hours during RTH. The lower Price Objectives for the YM begin several thousand points below @ 31K and extend down to Fill the Monthly Gap @ 28.2K. The Equity Complex continues to weaken, Day after Day, regardless of short term gyrations which entice those content on reliving the past. 4/5 has a long way to go... more for TECH and the S&P500, as they will be hit the hardest. Today Price action in the YM has been in excess of a 350 Point Range with a Dip into the 33Ks. The Trend is clear for now, lower and lower, cautiously avoiding a reset of the lows... We do not believe they will hold, but induce more selling to the 200EMA @ 33266, a third test of the Lows we would not trust.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
7
NQ - Daily Setup / D1 = 15708-14367 & D2 = 15399 - 14367Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will tell us everything we need to know. Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will inform us of what we need to know. Patience. _____________________________________________________ My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs. This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982... The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks. The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K. We caught the easy $ on our projected decline... Hanging on to it here and giving it time to resolve... is wise IMHO. There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead. They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you. The VIX and VXN - the levels are in prior commentary... This will be today's only update as more information needs to be observed for Price. I'll leave you with, what else... Patience. Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
18