ES - Look out below96s were our 2nd entry, Tech will lead the declines.
Broad Market Selloff today as Dippers have left the arena.
Expecting 500 to be yanked out from under NQ this week.
Ym
dow. 2 hour. sideways across the board in first 30 minutes.all of the indeces are trapped in a range for the first 30 minutes of trading. if you took any positions this morning you probably lost money. Might be a good day to sit on your hands, but if there is a breakout we could do some trending later on.
NQ - Building December SELLs NQ ES RTY YM - First EntriesMNQ STO - 10 x 15365
MNQ STO - 5 x 15360
MNQ STO - 5 x 15355
MNQ STO - 5 x 15350
EQ - 2.5 NQ Sells
After Kaplans later Friday reversal, the die was cast for the cartoonish over throw.
Our Initial Target from 3 weeks ago was 15363, this target was met and exceeded
in the NQ SEP CT @ 15384.
We will continue to use SEP as the BTO Hedge, we closed 2 NQ from 170 break
at 322. We hold Zero SEP Hedge for NQ currently.
We remain in a large Bid for SOXS, with 28K @ 6.91~
ES -STO 6.5K CTs
RTY - 0 Positions
YM - 0 Positions
CL - STO 7K 65.87
VXX - BTO 6 CTs 2644
VX - M1/M2/M3 BTO 8 CTs on Curve
VXM - M1 40MCTs
SOXS - 28K ~ 6.912
___________________________________________________________________________
The VIX Curve implies an 86% chance of increased Volatility for the Indices today.
Extremes in many metrics and indicators, keep us in a Line Feed Out strategy for a violent
reversal.
The Monthly patterns, imho - are completing off two historic conditions:
1. A break away monthly Gap - never occurred in History, never.
2. 7 Monthly Bull Bars probability is 12:1 against. An 8th has never occurred in the past 25 Years.
Market breadth is extreme in its weakness.
Gamma was once again the driver, with vastly reduced Call Volumes.
AAPL TSLA GOOG NVDA - another attempt at GS will fail imho
AMC Apes bought the 39s... we are seller of AMC from 37.50 to 41.00
TSLA - Sellers at 720 - 750
ARKK - Sellers 120.11 to 125
WE Anticipate a violent reversal very soon. Ideally, today should close Negative no later than Globex.
Prosperity to those positioned for the reversal.
- HK
ES - Monthly Terminations over the past 25 YearsThe throw over continues to imbue the Bulls who see Big Green Bars
to chase.
And why not?
It works consistently, the FED has your back.
Until it decides "Extremely Elevated Equities" need a solid trim.
Our indications of a throw over last week have played out perfectly.
After Distribution, Market Makers are permitted to extract their exit
and pound of flesh, it happens over and over and over.
The party is coming to a decided end for the Shorter Term.
Chase Bars or slowly feed out your lines.
We are feeding out lines.
- HK
ES - Over Throw Completing 4496 / 4512 / 4532Thank the Stars we got the push off the .22 ES/M2.
It had dipped in, indicating the Stop Run would complete
by Tuesday.
This will be taken away far quicker than the chaser will
comprehend.
We are loading the proverbial woodshed with SELLS.
BR/VG tossed a bunch of Jing to position for protection...
we did as well.
All Buy to opens across the YM ES RTY NQ were closed.
We are in a confirmed SELL as Targets/Orders on our
Inverse Ladder FILL.
Big Lick, dead ahead.
xoxo- Hunter Killer
Reverse Repos - Cross All Time Highs @ 1.117 TrillionNothing to see here, of course.
Unless you are a student of History and well versed in
the prior Financial Crisis of 2004 - 2008.
We identified the issues with respect to RMBS in March of 2004,
published it and waited ~ 13 months for it to unfold.
A year later the Equities Complex began to see large distortions
which resulted in a 10X leverUp by the Fed following the 2008
Crisis.
We are seeing precisely the same patterns today.
Although this will require more time to complete, the trend remains
the same.
A correction, followed by new all time highs, followed by a larger
50%+ correction from higher All Time Highs in 2022.
It should be clear, M2 NEVER SLEEPS :)
Prosperous "Trading" to everyone.
It's a Jungle in here.
MARGIN DEBT - An ST PeakThe Peak for Intermediate Margin Debt peaked in July.
After 15 months of elevation...
It has declined 4.48% as Fear and Uncertainty have taken
ahold... this appeared in the most recent release in
Consumer Confidence, which Collapsed.
Although the Gross Notional is nowhere near the highs
as a percentage of Total Assets Value, as we have repeatedly
indicated, the Trend is clear.
It serves as further Confirmation of the Distribution Patterns
we have Indicated for 47 Days.
Technical Metrics clearly illustrate this among Larger Daily
Divergences present within the Equity Complex.
While BR/VG continue to accumulate an Outsized VX Position,
the "Investor, HODL, MEME, Retail Trader, Speculator and well
oiled Degenerate Gambler" Class continue to twaddle with
even fewer outright purchases....
Instead, levering up with Options as Margin Debt continues
to head South.
The perfect setup is nearing completion.
The exits are too narrow to prevent 95% of the above
Casino participants from being harmed.
We attempt to promote Sanity with respect to Trading and
although a great many find it offensive and "Abusive" - it
is not.
To bad choices there are extreme consequences.
It is your Capital, your choice, your decision.
HK seeks opportunity, nothing more... clinging to
Coat Tails of those in Control.
Following
Obeying
Profiting
To Win, there must be a Loss.
We are taking a large SELL Position, the largest since August of 2020.
A minimum of an 11% decline is the Lower Target.
One way Ticket TOTAL Assets expand 10X off prior Crisis while...No tickie, No laundry.
Simple really,.
Where has it left us, this historical Credit Cycle?
Here:
A collapse in Global Economic Activity.
The Highest ROC for Inflation in History.
The greatest unwind of Consumer Confidence in History.
The sharpest declines for Both M1/M2 Velocities in History.
The Lowest percentage of Employed Workers in History.
The Highest Homeless Population in History.
_____________________________________________________
Dissention @ the FED with ONE EXCEPTION - there was complete
and total agreement among the Fed BOG Voting Members and
Non-Voting Members - ASSET PRICES ARE EXTREMELY ELEVATED.
Simply read the Minutes - it's there in Black and White.
Carlo lays it all out, concerns surrounding VX Curve on Short End
of UST Curve, Asset VX, Asset Elevation, Inflation Target Remedy
and on and on it devolves.
They are engineering a Correction, period.
As Wave 4 Due South sets up, the Degenerate Gamblers and those
ignorant and unaware will be caught as the Tide is permitted to
go out for what will be the shortest Taper in recorded History.
A bluff, and then...
Well, that is frankly akin to asking a Shark what's for Dinner.
A renewed push by the Federal Reserve at unimaginable levels
of Shadow Banking Expansions.
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.
Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration
within this timeframe.
It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control
for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy.
During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities.
Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then
(as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up
and reversed.
TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these
Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have
been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable.
The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering.
This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes
they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie
DEBT.
Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and
Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation.
At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux.
The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and
a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege,
the US DOLLAR.
Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary &
Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores.
A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago.
As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely
important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level.
These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant.
More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections'
Trade"
HK
SPX SPY ES - Throw Over - SPX/M2 Money Stock For HK, this is the most important Chart we follow and obey.
The larger TF here - Daily - perfectly illustrates how Price moves
along a trend range... Until it snaps and collapses quickly.
This is precisely what we believe will occur in the next few weeks
or perhaps sooner.
We will see a sharp reversal with 2 distinct thrusts down as primaries.
Time is running out for the Buy Side.
What took months to build will be taken out quickly.
M1 - Velocity continues deterioratingAs BR & VG maintain a healthy prop under the Equities Complex....
Real activity outside of the "Markets" is grinding to a decided halt.
Uncertainty has gained a foothold and it is not going to reverse in
the near future.
The spectacle in chasing Price, big greens bars... is merely a trade.
It is not an investment, those days are long gone as the Fundamentals
of our Economy have collapsed.
The prop can buy time, but that is limited as well as Risk Factors only
continue to compound.
They are everywhere and well ignored by speculators and gamblers
alike.
Behaviors are symptomatic of far greater ills within our Culture, which
had devolved to into a myriad of untoward circumstances.
Patterns repeat.
We are witnessing the transfer of wealth on a scale unseen in Human
History. It is truly disturbing.
The panic Sell can only be prolonged for a finite time.
When Price cuts loose to the downside, most will Hold as the indoctrination
of FED Policy and BTD is what plays.
Until it does not.
VG/BR - 2:45PM EST Prop... Van Wilder and Blacky Attempt another save until the Power Hour.
Clockwork, but the deal is done, even VG knows they'll
lose a hand to 75.
They'll be back as the FED will 5X the pump after this
dump.
A wave 5 affair into 2022.
NQ - Micros, as Indicated BR/VG throw-over attempt is a SELLThe ALGOs are attached themselves to this Draw for Fills @ .618 off Lows or
the -.382.
There has been one toss over which has traded, there will be another simply
to run all Retail SELLERs out of the SELL.
This happened in 2020, it is happening again.
Although Breadth expanded among smaller Caps and AAPLs Gamma Squeeze
failed at the new ATH and top of the range - BR/VG continue to CONfuse Sellers
with these prop house retracements.
Volumes dried up at lows during Globex as the chasers pressed off the ledge and
continued pressing until - a sharp reversal took Price to implied Targets above.
Never discount their ability to FORCE a FILL. N E V E R.
They always get it, it is purely axiomatic.
This imbues the Dippers to reconsider their recent mistakes of chasing ATHs, but
make no mistake... this MESS will drop so quickly, most heads will spin... it's setting up.
ROCs to the downside will gain momentum as Wall Street gets its fill.
Follow them, we do. It is how we traders win.
They have the inside line on looming Geopolitical RISK.
NQ - Sell Entries for Larger Decline (DX shows the way)Levels are for THIS Weekly Closing. .382 is the likely Level... unless
BR goes full tilt Friday... tough move for them as it puts them out of balance.
VG & BR played cat and mouse until 3:45PM EST this go around
and then unleashed the afterburners expected early at 2:45PM EST.
We'll take it as it shows the longer pattern of Distribution has come
to a decided end.
AS Liquidity dries up into Friday, they'll need to buy it... or it plunges.
14502 is our next primary Target as 2Day everything broke.
Uncle Buck wants 94.65 - it will get there.
TSLA couldn't save the ES, let alone itself as it tried and tried to
break 696, Sellers said nope, screw you.
4441 ES pivot is now gone, adios... 4003 or so, 200SMA decline
has begun, it's going to be sporty, so we've moved 1/2 positions
out to December on ES and NQ - YM Losing 35K was an important
footnote on the Day as it can RT.
RUT = DOA, never able to recapture 2335.
The initial leg has another 8% with ease prior to a whipsaw.
CONfidence in Dipping is ending. Fear and cautionary tones setting
in today. Ever gullible... changed their tunes as well @ 4:02PM EST.
Only the Kinky Meme's are hanging in there, the usual suspects
AMC< GME< TSLA (yes Tesla is a Meme imho)
As Opex unfolds on an ill-liquid Friday, any large Volume profit
taking will see a 3% down day without breaking a sweat.
We repeatedly warned of this decline setup, although our higher
Fills were not tagged, we're good with that, there is plenty more,
a great deal more where today came from.
Larger downside targets were all confirmed today, there isn't much
out of DC or NYC that can reverse what is now in motion.
Trust and Confidence were broken this week.
Buckle up, it's going to be a nasty ride South for another 400 ES
handles.
FED - A non-event - Minutes of Spinnakers for blow hardsThe real move will arrive @ 2:45PM EST
Simply Vanguard and Blackrock swapping shares
until.
Sell Side did mount the Decline Sellers were
attempting.
SELLERS @ LOWS ENDS BADLY for these chasers.
NQ - DECWell that was fun, 157 Handies off DEC.
Closed 2 on break of TGT Lows.
Looking like much more to come.
Closed ES @ 4410 from 4441.
Closed YM @ 35101 from 35488
Closed CL @ 66.56 from 67.54
Closed VX @ 21.00 from 19.80
IN/OUT Burger on SOXS 2x for 37 ticks x 35K avepos.
Closed RTY @ 2164 from 2199
TESLA - why bother, a very large percentage win.
AMC - bag holding 10K in profit took off 4K for $8.3K.
Ugly out there, Jerome said so.
Today comes to an end, to those traders who followed - Congrats.
We took da opposers $ all day. Doesn't happen often, but a solid win for team
J.
VIX - Defends with a Front Run on SEP CT - Aggressive BID comingProtection is being bid again in a larger than usual front run of
Gap Fills below for the September Contract.
Don Jerome Pablo Escobar Gavaria Powell made certain yesterday's
close was another barn burner after announcing September would
see the taper arrive.
Thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking has concluded.
All the signs were there, and... ya can't say the BOG @ the FED did not
warn as Voting Member after Voting Member made it clear - it is time.
And.... Corona Babona is Back Baby!
How do you solve the Rental Crisis? With another crisis, of course :)
No such luck today it would appear as FEAR is gaining further traction.
RTY is leading the decline, ES NQ YM obliging the setup.
Hopefully we see one more throw over for additional entries.
Macro Data continues to confirm the Global choke hold as Growth
is gone going.
The Globex Gap down is ripe for continuation.
Correction gains in probability as the chasers of the Likes of Tesla,
Amazon and Semi-Conductors are being lit up repeatedly.
Rarely, if ever, does the BTD and Hubris peak in a level of sheer
silliness without cause in horrific Economic Circumstance.
The Fanbois were smoked for 7% in 2 days.
The APES pray to the Squeeze, the Gamers will need new consoles
for the next big things and Nokia will head to $120.
"They got a contract on the Moon Bro!"
Ok, good luck.
We'll take the hard fade on this every time.
Enjoy the show.
ES - Chopping @ HighsES SPY SPX preparing for a substantial Drop.
We are anticipating 2 thrusts lower towards the 200SMA.
It's been well over one year since we've seen a test of this
level.
For now, we are simply seeing further distribution on low volumes.
A number of Divergences will complete this week after trading into the
UTL (Upper Trend Line) and bring about the correction.
Trading to and through the 50SMA will confirm the larger trade lower.
Complacency is at higher than usual levels.
The BULLs don't see this going down, not believing it can drop.
The BEARs lose hope as they have been repeatedly beaten.
Perfect environment... for those of us waiting for Fills at out levels.
Empire State Manufacturing simply confirms what we have suggested
for some time - Global Economic Activity is collapsing.
There should be a dramatic drop soon, followed by a reversal to
New All Time Highs.
May profits be yours, they are here for the taking.
Patience, it's here.
3588 is the must hold level, 3798 is our preferred level.
roughly 3600-3800 is the desired Target Range.
16 August: powerfull buy limit place you must put china news comes very bad , this mean we will see down trend
www.forexfactory.com
most important green arrow ,buylimit place is above 35000 and 34000
after green arrow buy open,hold them 10 day to 35800
all sl=80 trailstop=80(after sl move to open price ,disable trail stop,let go up)
ALERT=IN LONGTERM DOW GOING TO 40.000,FOR THIS WE DONT ADVICE SELL ,99% LOOKING FOR BUY IN DEEP
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows...
Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of
Trade Plan - Probability favors all.
BTD chasers.
We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is:
Volatility Crush Reversal
VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve
we will have completed inverse ladders on the following
Positions:
VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08
Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06.
VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K
VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K
VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K
______________________________________________________________
SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop
SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K
NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow
TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780
Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue
Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780
AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll
AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88
GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022
Collar at 195 Strike out through November.
__________________________________________________
Financials
ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead
Wednesday Fed minutes for entry
ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead
Wednesday Fed minutes for entry
TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead
Wednesday Fed minutes for entry
NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES
will catch the head fake for entry.
Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries
Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket,
OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY.
Powell - Still Thinking about...
*Clarida - Taper could begin later this year
Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view
*Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September
*Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October
*Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish
THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH.
Events:
ALL BOG Members voted for/supported:
Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021
$1 Trillion
CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective
Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
YM - Distribution Patterns creating Confusion and DelayUnmistakable Distro Pattern.
Rotations are short lived.
FED Purchasing Arms have reversal Fills on for decline while ATH after ATH
is forced higher on decreasing Volumes.
We have 35,912 to 36,737 as potential Highs for YM - Probability is Neutral
for now, the overthrow would not hold and requires a quick and dirty move
higher.
The throw overs are common at levels, see December to February 2020.
Precisely the same pattern of Distribution.
Every throw over is a SELL imho.
Consumers are pulling back on Spending as Prices continue to elevate.
Supply chain reductions are assured as Global Production is in decline.
Confusion and Delay is ALL that is in trade until the Reversal begins.
Dumping your purse into Longs is an epic mistake.
Monthly breakaway Gap @ 28,200 will be filled into October/November,
prior to new ATHs.
The lows provide a fair probability of holding, only to reverse and move
quickly to new all time highs into 2022.
The FED will permit a fair amount of selling pressure to reduce the need
to taper, IF they were to actually taper Bond Purchases, it will not last
for more than a few months.
MBS provide a very telling statement of material FACT.
FED Purchasing $40B we know of in MBS isn't signs of a healthy Housing Market,
instead it suggests underneath the Headline Numbers, many of these products
are failing.
It is reminiscent of 2004.
Distribution began in JUNE of 2021... lots of Overpriced Zombie JUNK propped
up with share buybacks and Easy Cheesy Gamma Squeezy to unload.
NQ - How many Taps @ 15170 are requiredTECH is a messy trade, the APEs, Fanbios and Degenerate Gamblers
fail to see the structure, instead preferring to tout ATH after ATH.
Irrelevant with respect to the larger picture which has clearly formed.
The TECH Equities operate on Balance, TSLA is attempting to force a fill
that requires the 780s to trade.
Overlapping rotation from high to low end of balance.
Consolidation range for break is the Market Depth, there are subtle
nuances which clearly show the structure of the Distribution.
It does not indicate CONfidence nor steady... tight ranges of push/pull
demonstrate a LACK of CONFidence.
TSLA remains a prime example of what's wrong with Market Structure.
How is Tesla making new highs?
Traders are choosing to ignore placing the wrong trade at the wrong time.
Decisions are being made the Level is Long and yet the majority of the Volume
is symmetric and small.
The Profile is Long for a breakout.
The Balance is leading to excess.
It is as plain as day, right in the charts and OBV.
Tesla is simply exhibiting exactly the same setup as the NQ.
When the strafing begins, the Targets are always the opposing measured move
back to balance.
"The Markets will keep going up until the FED does something absolute."
Potentially, but not always.
This is what the Market Structure is exhibiting.
Momentum Buyers chasing big green bars...
This never ends well. Sellers are not running out of Bullets, they are patiently
buying time to participate in the reversal of VOL CRUSH.
This has happened time and again prior to key moves in prior quick, dramatic
corrections.
A look above, a head fake and fail.
The Potential is extreme.
D I S T R I B U T I O N
$3.5 Trillion in "Build Back Better" No sooner had the $1.5 Trillion Infrastructure in free cheese been passed for the Kleptocrats
and they begin shoving another $3.5 Trillion Green Agenda.
Adding to Inflation worries while Global Supplies of the "Things we need" as coming up well
short.
Bonds - Perhaps the CPI is peaking here at 5%
Equities - Inflation isn't Transitory
Metals - We don't get fooled again, yet you did
Energy - The best thing to ever happen to Crude Oil, the Biden Admin
Here's the clue - Inflation trade is OUTPERFORMING.
