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Ym

DJI to $14,500 in July 2032?Do we revert to the 50 year mean in 2032? That would put the Dow at 14,500 in 2032 if the cycle repeats. Found it very interesting that it was exactly 50 years to get a low & bounce from the Great Depression bottom. Every mega bear market is different so IF this is the start of another mega bear market that takes us to the lower blue line on this log chart then I doubt it will be labeled "Great Depression or Stagflation". Great Depression-Lasted 3 years Stagflation-Lasted 16.5 years Jan 2022-July 2032=10.5 years (16.5+3=19.5 years and then divide that by 2 and you could conceivably say 10.5 years of whatever we will call it does make sense from a timeframe perspective). Either way, IFFFF we are in a mega bear market the chart won't look identical to either the Great Depression nor Stagflation...it will have it's own uniqueness and it's own name. For now, I'm just looking for the open weekly gaps on the DJI to get cleared seeing as those have ALWAYS cleared. Open weekly gaps are at 28,495.05 and 24,718.46
TVC:DJIShort
by Vixtine
3
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) May Pullback SoonShort Term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) suggest that rally from 6.17.2022 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6.17.2022 low, wave W ended at 31867 and dips in wave X ended at 30109. Internal of wave X unfolded as a zigzag structure. Wave ((a)) ended at 30331, wave ((b)) ended at 31490 and wave ((c)) lower ended at 30109. This completed wave X in higher degree. Wave Y is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave X, wave (i) ended at 30726 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 30495. Index extends higher in wave (iii) towards 31264, wave (iv) ended at 31113, and final leg higher wave (v) ended at 31614 which completed wave ((a)). Pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 30949. Wave ((c)) higher is in progress as a diagonal. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 31980 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 31504. Index then extends higher towards 32193 to end wave (iii). Expect wave (iv) pullback to end soon, and Index should resume higher in wave (v) of ((c)) to end wave Y. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W from 6.17.2022 low. This area comes at 32321 – 33691 where sellers can appear for further downside or 3 waves pullback at least.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9
Showcase: A quick trade on e-mini Dow Jones (YM, 25 July 2022)I recorded the video abit late: There was a nice pullback formation earlier and if you look on the left side of the chart, you can see the price was on downtrend before it made a reversal with high vol. (indicated in the video as SO, which is actually an SP based on the bar characteristics). I did set my EP at 31282 but the price volatility caught me off guard and I emotionally entered on market price. Eventually price went down to capture my earlier EP level before continue moving upwards. We managed to exit with 25pts profit for holding of less than 10mins. This shows that having a proper background and entry on Pullback would yield a good return; bear in mind that in Futures, you need to enter in and out quickly.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by mdalifalwi
MBS - The Darkest end of the PoolBravo TV, off again by over a Trillion, no mention of the Junk Co sitting on Primaries @ $50 they cannot unload. FED MBS is $2.7 Trillion. Commercial Banks hold $3.13 Trillion in MBS. Get it together. ____________________________________________ NO BID is the current arrangement, 30 Year Mortgages up from 3 to 6%. The Fed's average Maturity is 7.1 Years, they'll be bagging these for some time and in order to bail out the primaries they'll have to suck up more. OR they can crash the Bond Markets. They'll attempt to run it off, but they own 28.2% of all Mortgages. The Bond Market is performing the FED's work, cuz the punks at the FED have no intention of powering in QT., rather, much further instability and dislocation Risk. ______________________________________________ THE FED IS TARGETING STOCKS for a reason... Thye need a Inverse Wealth Effect and are winning on that front. Much more to come... FSR is a 50% reduction @ 8K NQ and 2.4K ES. ______________________________________________ Growth, Payrolls, Retails Sales? Fight Inflation? Give us 75 to 100 in July. Bring down Equities to targets and transfer the Wealth. Far and away the easiest "Target" is the Market for Stocks.
FRED:MBST
by HK_L61
4
DOW - YM Ketchup28.2K and 24K await... it's simply a matter of time. Industrials for the Post Industrial Co-Dependent Economy are being Sold as if there is no tomorrow... Nothing like a solid lift to re-enter the Trend, which is Down. Counter-Trends are nasty Bed Fellows. 3M, Dow, and a great many of the glory days Equities are being dumped on the heads of Ma n' Pa. Dividend-paying Junk Co frankly makes sense for them... for now. CD Rates did not decline in the most recent TNX Pullback. Banks are now more hated than ever. Brokers are in the lead, though as Passives are frankly the new Index Funds of the early 2000s - CLick this and that, whammy, Ron Burgundy would be proud. Stay Classy INDU. Stay Classy.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
Showcase: Trading the e-mini Dow Jones (YM) 22-06-201. Did a long trade (paper trading) on e-mini Dow Jones. 2. Reason for the long trade: a) Price do a higher lower; a UT bar appears but the next bar overtake the UT. b) Volume is supporting the upward move. c) Strong support level at 29910 range. 3. Trade entered with SL @ 50pts and TP @ 75pts; as price move upwards with unrealised profit, the SL is revised upwards to minimise the losses and eventually lock-in the profit. 4. Price eventually do a pullback after breaking the recent Resistance (29966 range); our SL got hit and we exited with a realised profit of 24pts. 5. Price may move upwards from hereon; it is OK to exit with a small profit rather than be ambitious.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by mdalifalwi
We can't go anywhere without the DOWI was a bullish hopeful at the start of the week...I was thinking we would fill the 4K gap on the ES and then just go. Instead we spent 4 days closing below this figure. Yes, we closed the week above it and kept the lagging span just above the cloud but we cannot go anywhere with the DOW and this chart says it all. Neckline is clearly broken. Now, I do think we could have a minor rally to end May with a possible green monthly candle. The charts are clearly broken and will have limited re-tracements IMO. The NQ & RTY are in bear markets, enough said there. Sell the rip....
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Vixtine
3
SPY/SPX/ES/MES Elliot Wave AnalysisLooks like a big rally shaping up to end the month of May, but June should be a full-on bear fest, at least to start the month. Major Wave 1 down should end in the 3200 - 3500 zone. Likely, we'll rebound from there into the Fall of 2022. Major Wave 3 will likely project down to the 1500 zone. Major Wave 5 will likely end in late Spring 2023 with target projections somewhere between 1500 - 1200 with a very real possibility of undercutting the 2009 low @ 666. If we do undercut 666, supercycle Wave 5 up should begin, lasting 8.6 years into 2032 and reaching 50k to 100k + on the Dow Industrials. After that, it's possible the whole thing drops to zero and the shithouse goes up in flames. Credit to Dan E. for his wave analysis and Elliot Wave International CME_MINI:ES1! Side note - When things get super volatile, I like to trade the mini ES. Trades great with excellent liquidity.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by imdp
Upside Exhaustion Move In Bitcoin Is OverThe recent bounce in the US major indexes and Bitcoin is likely very close to completion right now. I would urge everyone to pull profits and prepare for the next big wave (likely LOWER). Fibonacci Price Theory suggests this trend is still bearish and Bitcoin would have to rally above $34,150 to start a new recovery phase. My analysis suggests more selling is needed to flush out a real bottom. I suspect the ES/NQ/YM and other sectors will do the same thing over the next few weeks - move lower attempting to FLUSH OUT a bottom. Pay attention to my research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
5
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures ($YM) Extending LowerShort Term View in Dow Futures suggest cycle from 5/5/2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5/5, wave A ended at 31148 and wave B rally ended at 32695. Internal subdivision of wave B unfolded as a zigzag structure in lesser degree. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 32201, and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 31778. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 32695 which completed wave B. Index has turned lower in wave C. Potential target for wave C is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A at 27950 – 29750 area. Wave C subdivides as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Down from wave B, wave (i) ended at 32238 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 32651. Index then resumes lower and expected to complete wave (iii) soon. Then it should rally in wave (iv) and turn lower 1 more time to end wave (v) and complete wave ((i)). Afterwards, Index should rally in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 5/17/2022 high before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as 5/17/2022 pivot at 32695 remains intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
YM - 2 Hour DOW INDU Not a good Look Longer term. 28.200 is the Gap Fill. 24K as well. With Financial and Industrial imploding, the RT will be Weak at best. ___________________________________ Copper and SIlver will consolidate prior to giving the YM the kick down the stairs, the correlations there are solid. ___________________________________ Short terms, stick save followed by more dumping ahead. DX needs to break 107s to put the nail in the DOW Coffin. It's been collecting Coffin nails for some time,
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
S&P500 next move according to Cycle AnalysisAfter reaching the target in the previous analysis and confirming the reverse trend from downtrend to uptrend, according to my new analysis, we should reach a good target in the #S&P500 CURRENCYCOM:US500 around 4400. After that, it will reverse the uptrend to the downtrend again. Based on these trends and according to the Top Down Approach method, a basket of US stocks can be traded, as well as Dow Jones and Nasdaq. In fact, SP500 is used as a Leader for trading other symbols. Given the positive correlation between SP and Bitcoin, I expect Bitcoin to rise to around $ 43,000 and fall below $ 25,000 again. Happy Trading
ULong
by mrsaghi
DOW / NASDAQBear Market signals persist. When the DOW begins to outperform on the downside, we have a clear indication of a lengthy BEAR Market. It's just beginning. Counter Trends are a normal course in prolonged Trends. The ONLY real reversal... QE: Global Central Banks began withdrawing Liquidity via RRP's since July of 2021. The contraction made a controlled contraction below 0 into a negative range well below the Peak Monthly $1.5T down to $300B and on down to 0 in January, going - $250B during the 3rd week of January - they have maintained the drain since this time... it is remained between -$180 to -$255B to the present. Lows into October 2023 imho.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Corrective Rally in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the cycle from April 21, 2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from April 21 high, wave (A) ended at 33015 and rally in wave (B) ended at 33968. Internal of wave (B) is unfolding as a zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 33611, pullback in wave B ended at 33155, and wave C rally ended at 33968. Wave (C) lower is in progress with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 33672 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 33903. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 32820, wave ((iv)) ended at 33145, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 32358. Index is now correcting the decline from April 29 peak in wave 2 before it resumes lower. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 33148 and wave ((b)) dips ended at 32806. Expect wave ((c)) to continue higher with possible target to 33591 – 33776 to end wave 2 before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 33968 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast