Ym
YM (Dow) UpdateI guess they're gonna make this go up by pumping the crap out of NKE and MMM, both of which missed on earnings, lol.
Overlay adjusted, not sure if we double top, but you gotta assume they fill the COVID gap (orange line).
Note that MFI is scrolling up from oversold, and Dow futures were pretty strong last night even when everything else went down. All this on a day where CSCO is down 5%.
💥 SPY and the DJI at Resistance BUT do we go Higher? 💫🙉💬 The SPY (ES1!) and DJI (YM1!) are both approaching resistance according to their futures contracts charts (ES1! And YM1!). Do we get a pullback here, or does the Dow retest its previous top while the other indexes run? We think both moves are in the cards. Given that, let's look at some support and resistance levels to get a sense of what might come next.
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ES1! Support:
S1: The range at the S/R flip and pivot point is a very obvious support level. We expect a reaction here if tested.
S2: If this S/R flip and orderblock range is tested it is very likely to hold. This looks like the perfect entry if we do get a pullback. Fear should be high going into this major support.
ES1! Resistance:
R1: Our one and only resistance is the one we are at right now, the orderblock range at the previous high. A correction here doesn't really dampen the bull case assuming S1 or S2 holds. Despite this, it the ideal is for the bulls to break above R1 and treat it as support moving forward as shown by the bullish ABC on the chart.
YM1! Support:
S1: The S/R flip for the Dow isn't as pronounced as the S&P's, but we expect a reaction here regardless.
S2: The orderblock and S/R cluster is the obvious support, just like it was for the S&P. Fear should be high going into this, but this is an ideal entry for bulls if we get a correction.
YM1! Resistance:
R1: If the Dow Jones can take out this resistance, or if the S&P can take out its resistance, then the bulls get a field day because there will be no resistance on any chart until the Dow's R2.
R2: It would make a ton of sense for the market to see a pullback as the Dow finally retests the orderblock range at the all-time high. With that said, a breakout above R1 means lots of room to run to R2. A rejection here and we would then look for R1 to become support as illustrated by the bullish ABC on the chart.
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Summary:
The S&P and Dow Jones are both at resistance, we have yet to see a breakout. A breakout for either likely pulls the rest of the market up and then the main resistance becomes the Dow's R2 range at the previous high. A rejection here, and we have our eyes on S1 and S2. Splitting bids between these levels makes sense. Now, how much of this is going to be influenced by stimulus deals and dollar weakness? That is a great question, our main focus here is on resistance, but either of those items could make a big impact.
Resources:
nypost.com
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YM (Dow) FUtures UpdateI think they go full pumptard on the Dow. Why? Because dividends. Companies are still making enough money to pay them and DIA dividend yield is 2.3% which is better than nothing.
That's what happens when you have zero interest rate.
I was trying to figure out why MMM is moving up after missing on earnings .... dividends. If you don't believe me look at PCAR. Pure dividend play, they earned much less than last year but enough to pay dividends.
Thaht and it needs to fill the futures gap. NQ and ES already have.
YM - e-mini DowJones s/r zonesHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
Important H1 s/r zones where it is appropriate to time positions. Gray support for long positions, red resistance for short positions. The thickness of the zone adds to the importance of this zone. Remember that the red thin line indicates the price where the most trades took place for a given volume profile, so this level is also very important in terms of a fair price. The S / R zones supported by this line are gaining in importance. Trade what you understand depending on your business plan.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund ($4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
One more Gap Filled - but with Divergences TVC:SPX
Bonds up, Yen up today - Always means something.
We filled a gap that frankly I thought we would have filled weeks ago, but now we have negative divergences. I won't call the top of the stock market impressive V shaped recovery rather its time for a pull back.
Maybe back to the 200 day (here in bright green) so they can take more buyers even higher to fill the gap over head. The Nasdaq keeps making higher highs with more divergences - its time for a reset.
Dow Jones Long-term Megaphone, Limit Reached to the TickOn both the long-term (weekly and monthly) S&P 500 chart and here with the Dow monthly chart, one can see a large megaphone structure or broadening pattern. In both cases, the Fed balance sheet reversal and then repo-induced mania of last year created an overthrow. On the S&P 500 megaphone, this bear market rally culminated in a small overthrow again, but that index now sits once again inside that structure.
With the Dow, on the other hand, the rally came to an abrupt halt as it found resistance at that structure and subsequently retreated from it, to the tick. In this chart, it is forming a very strong, long-wick rejection candle.
I do believe we will be making our way to the bottom channel once again. We will likely find some support there, but I believe it will then fall out of the structure altogether, the common conclusion of a pattern like this.