Dow - The three patterns for 2019This recent near touch of the wave ii high has held allowing for an immediate down in wave v to complete the larger IV.
The X pattern requires breaking that high and the completed pattern requires strength up through the 28k range directly (lower prob).
Anyways, they're the patterns and end of month is on tap. The levels are generally of value.
Ym
SPY & US Majors setup for a 5~8%+ downside rotationIf you follow my research, be prepared for an immediate downside rotation starting near March 5th ~ 11th that will likely result in a -5~8% downside price swing. This will NOT be the massive crash that so many other people are predicting. It will likely end as a momentum base setup near the -6% levels that I'm suggesting for the ES and YM. The NQ will likely rotate a bit further to the downside (possibly -8 to -12%).
If you have not already protected your long positions, DO IT NOW. Be prepared for a mild price rotation before the next momentum move begins near early April 2019.
Follow my work if you want to stay ahead of these markets.
Dow Jones Industrial tracking Oil and metals lower $YMDJIA is headed lower tracking investors rotation from stocks into 10yr T-bonds. I am seeing the index breaking down towards 22-21k.
Oil has already shed considerably and metals are trading lower too which effects Dow Jones Industrial sectors.
Technically we breached a weekly Insidebar to the downside and traded back which gives us an opportunity to get back into the downtrend on smaller timeframes.
The Strat YM/DJI Broadening formations on Daily/HourlyStill learning the strat from Rob Smith- check it out on T3 for a new way to look at price action.
Outside bars creating broadening triangles on the hourly and daily, as defined by the strat. Exhaustion at the top and back into the range. Below 25007 puts it into the daily outside bar range for journey down to below 24122.
Timeframe continuity up on the Monthly and weekly, price dropping below 25142 and 24818 would put them into sync for move down.
Can't help adding the pivots in! Monthly, weekly and daily pivot all aligned within a few points of each other at todays high 25400, the top of the broadening formation- what a coincidence.
Dow Jones Elliott Wave View: Correction CompletedHello Traders,
YM short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a bounce to 25845 high ended red wave “b”. Down from there, red wave “c” unfolded as ending diagonal structure i.e lesser degree cycles within black wave ((1)), ((3)) & ((5)) also unfolded in 3 swings structure. Where black wave ((1)) ended at 25220 low as zigzag structure. Up from there, a bounce to 25594 high ended black wave ((2)). Below from there, black wave ((3)) ended at 24515 low in another 3 swings.
Above from there, a bounce to 25075 high ended black wave ((4)) bounce. Then finally a decline to 24089 low ended black wave ((5)), which also completed cycle red wave “c” & blue wave (IV) pullback. Up from there, the index made a strong bounce higher & broke the pivot from 25845 thus suggests that the next leg higher in blue wave (V) could have started. Near-term, while dips remain above 24089 low the index is expected to resume the upside. But a break above 26962 10/03/2018 peak remains to be seen for final conviction of this bullish view & to avoid double correction lower in bluee wave (IV) pullback. We don’t like selling it.
YM ThursdayAs described yesterday, the buyers came in strong out of support areas at ~24100. Price broke through the 25000 level and created a new structure high by breaking the last highs as well. In the more immediate order flow price created a 1 to 1 to the upside reaching 25300. Price corrected strong and broke the immediate structure at ~25070. I am expecting price to correct a little more to the downside overall and a possible sell at a 1 to 1 completion - D-sell at ~25233.
YM Wednesday - Buyers are coming inPrice tried to trade lower to create a new structure low and to retest the support levels at ~24209 and futher down at ~23980. While waiting for yesterday's sell, I was expecting a rotation and a short-entry between the 50% and 61.8% Fib Correction. After the sellers came in around there to correct weak, buyers dominated and traded price higher creating immediate new structure highs. Looking at the harmonics, price extended a 1 to 1 target in the immediate order flow and traded above areas of good selling structure. The sellers did not show up and look weak compared to the buyers momentum right now. Let's see if price breaks through the last high and resistance levels at ~25000. Still flat for now.
YM Tuesday - Still looking for ShortsAfter an extended 1 to 1 completion (yesterday's short) we reached strong areas of support (blue lines - my weekly analysis) where the buyers need to show up. Since the last high that price made is not being taken out, I am still looking for shorts. Price is correcting right now. Unsure about the correction this time, but I am expecting it to happen between the 50 and 61.8 Fib Correction, also in line with price structure. Just look at structure to the left where the sellers have their territory to come in.
Check my higher time frame analysis as well.
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None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
YM Monday - Looking for ShortsRight now we can see a nice harmonic correction. I am expecting a 1 to 1 completion to the upside of the previous immediate swing at orange rectangle area --- ~24969 and ~24986. Looking for a D-sell.
*DISCLAIMER: Futures , stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
YM More Immediate Orderflow AnalysisPrice is selling off nicely. New structure lows were created with nice ratios and harmonics in play. The last low was created with less momentum and less projection since price is reaching strong support areas at blue line ~24209. Buyers slowly start to show up. Still bearish market and looking for shorts.
Check my longer term analysis as well:
*DISCLAIMER: Futures , stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
YM Weekly (Technical) Analysis YM still bearish - The buyers came in good at ~25200. The sellers still dominated though and traded below those levels. Expecting price to create new structure lows and retesting support levels at ~24200 and ~23980 - (blue lines). Nice harmonics in play, also in the immediate order flow.
Check my analysis for the more immediate order flow.
**DISCLAIMER: Futures , stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
YM Long AnalysisAfter this huge move to the upside, I am expecting price to correct into the drawn orange rectangle-area at ~25160. Looking for longs there. Target at 25460-25480 at a one to one/127 Fib extension. Stop below the last low at ~25009, safe below 25000.
*DISCLAIMER: Futures, stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
Venus Retrograde = falling US equity markets, Nasdaq, S&P, DJIAThe Venus retrograde cycle is a historically bearish cycle for US equity markets. The falls seem to be exacerbated when at or near all time highs, which all three markets find themselves. Regardless of catalyst or a reason, a strong dip should be expected between October 2nd and going into the last week of November. The Venus retrograde cycle starts on October 5th and ends November 22nd.
Why an early fail can actually HELP a breakoutThis is a great example for traders of all timeframes to study. I don't really have time for people basing trades on wide zones - that's fine for analysis, but for a TRADE, you've got to see the fight at a specific level. When you draw these correctly, you can get a really great picture of evolving sentiment and balance of power shifts.
Most traders treat breakouts way too lazily. You don't just enter at a new High/Low. You NEED buildup.
Any naked attack from distance is likely to fail. But what if it only pauses, instead of crashing?
Do you redraw the level? Do you avoid the trade completely?
What works for me:
Talk out the developing scenario. A fail failed? Ooh, interesting. Maybe there's more power on the original side than expected.
Once the breakout's happened, how is the other side thinking? I was biased long, getting everything I wanted to see....but what would the Bears want to see? Probably a close back under the grey/yellow boxes, right?
But wait, now that we created another temporary level during the failed probe, there's another level price needs to break through before even attempting the yellow level and then grey boxes!
--> this makes for a likely bounce point, and creates several chances for late entries. Best of all, it means a breakout entry at the original level will be protected by that bounce and your trade stays green.