YM1!
DOW JONES above the 1D MA50 for the first time in monthDow Jones hit (and closed over) the 1D MA50 on Friday for the first time in more than a month (Feb 20th last closing over it). With 1D technicals on very healthy bullish levels (RSI = 60.420, MACD = 12.500, ADX = 35.536) this is a very positive sign on the long-term. Especially since the RSI crossed over the 4 month LH trendline.
Our TP (33,450) from our trade idea 2 weeks ago (see below) is almost hit, however short term traders need to start and consider the immediate Reistance levels that the index needs to break in order to extend the long term rally. This is firstly the 33,550 High of March 6th and secondly the top of the December Channel Down pattern. A 1D closing above each would be a bullish continuation signal that would target the next level of Resistance. Primarily we look for a closing above the Channel Down in order to target R1 (TP = 34,350). Conversly a rejection and closing under the 33,550 Resistance would target the lower Symmetrical Support (TP = 32,600).
Prior idea:
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK
Price was marked up on low volume =
possibility of trapping longs. Keep your stops tight
if you are holding long positions.
Possible scenarios:
1) Sell if False break of 33590, test and reject of
recent high
2) Long on test and accept of 32595 // 33590
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high =
possible selling, trapping longs
Daily: Wide spread low vol up bar close off high
= possible selling, trapping longs
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35228 34605 33590
32595 31657
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Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES almost on our target. What's next?Two weeks ago, we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
The price has almost hit our 33100 Target and we think it is time to look into the longer term. We made a case on the idea above that Dow is currently repeating the October - November rally, as the RSI pattern is identical. In addition, that larger pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase.
As a result the target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4-6 weeks at 35400.
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Sell setupTrade: Sell at 32975 or higher
Stop: 33150
Notes
The model:
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell.
On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
DOW JONES: Ranged until it breaks the 4H MA200 and turns bullishDow Jones remains neutral on the 1D technicals (RSI = 47.239, MACD = -227.510, ADX = 31.577) as the price has been mostly ranging for 2 weeks between the 32,600 Symmetrical Resistance and 31,800 Symmetrical Support.
Todays rejection should give one more pull back to the Symmetrical Support if the 4H MA50 breaks. On the other hand, a full 4H candle closing over the Symmetrical Resistance, will most likely cross over the 4H MA200 too and target long term P1 at 33,450.
Prior idea:
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 27
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 27
Support long at 31747 was good.
Note the trendline resistance at the moment.
I'll be back in April, keep profits and rest from cold.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on reject of 32789
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high (some supply present)
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES has started the new bullish wave.This is basically to last week's buy signal at the bottom:
As you see Dow Jones (DJI) made a new Lower Low (bottom) on the 4-month Channel Down and broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The move is supported by a Higher Lows Zone (as is the RSI), similar to the previous Channel Down Low in late December. With the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow always unleashing volatility, we can see one last pull-back and then rebound towards the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and our 33100 Target.
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DOW JONES Huge Inverse Head and Shoulders aiming at the 2022 HigDow Jones/ US30 is rebounding after approaching the 1week MA200. This is a major Support that held on June 2022.
That low can be viewed as the Left Shoulder of a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and the current low as its Right Shoulder.
Target the bottom of Support Zone A at 35350.
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YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20
During the week, the formation of A-A1 rotation offered rotational
play opportunity.
Demand has built up, with weekly bar showing loss of selling
momentum. But it takes time for the vessel to turn, so wait for
support to manifest before going long
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 31750 - 32600 (approx 850pts range)
2) Continuation long = long on retracement, to test 33590
3) Short if 31747 was broken through and becomes resistance
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Higher vol, narrower spread down bar close off low
= reduced downward momentum
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward off (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789 31747
31097 30513
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES: Rejection on the 4H MA50 keeping it neutralDow Jones found Support on the S1 Zone as we called last week (see idea at the end) and closed 4 straight candles inside it. The 1D time-frame remains technically red (RSI = 37.784, MACD = -381.660, ADX = 48.656) and the rejection on the 4H MA50 is keeping the price at bay. This appears to be like the rejection on December 21st 2022, which kept the price inside an Ascending Triangle before a rise to the top of the Channel Down. We will maintain our bullish persctive within this patternand target P1 (TP = 33,450).
Prior call:
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DOW JONES is forming a bottom, aiming at the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones (DJI) is trading sideways for the 4th straight 1D candle on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down. As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, similar to the September 27 bottom, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) to form the 1st Bearish Cross since that bottom, we treat this as a strong medium-term buy opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 and 33100. We need a closing above the 1D MA50 to justify further uptrend as that level rejected the index on March 06.
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YM, DOW JONES, US30 Daily analysisThis is a Daily analysis of both BUY and SELL Scenarios of the Dow Jones:
Buy:
-Buy Opportunity after retesting the old Support(Nov 4th, 22)
Sell:
-If Market breaks 31700 it's highly Possible to drop and retest 30100 Again.
Happy Trading
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
Short on reject of 32789 offered very good returns for those who were able to trade
during the US afternoon hours.
Ease of movement to the downside observed.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on test and reject of 32789, possible target 31100
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward low (non-trend changing)
Daily: Low vol E=R down bar (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES: November Support and bottom of 4month Channel hit.Dow Jones is officially oversold on the 1D time frame (RSI = 29.490, MACD = -335.510, ADX = 43.978) with the RSI being that low for the first time since September 30th 2022. By hitting also the S1 Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, it becomes a buy opportunity for us, TP = 33,450 (P1).
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DOW JONES Any doubt we are completely off Bear limits anymore?This Dow Jones (DJI) from the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle until today with the 2007 - 2009 (Housing Crisis) Bear Cycle fractal plotted on it. As you see up until the mid October bottom, the two sequences practically traded in an identical way. Since then however, Dow has completely diverged from the 07/09 fractal and despite the late weakness, it is hard to claim that we are still in Bear Cycle territory.
Is there any doubt we are off Bear limits anymore?
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DOW JONES The opportunity to buy again is NOWWe have been following this Triangle pattern on Dow Jones (DJI) trading within what we called the 'High Volatility region' since last year, with are last buy signal given 1 week ago:
The 33400 target was reached and yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is providing us with a new opportunity to buy. We have a confirmed Triple Bottom ranging from November 09 2022 and today's low makes a Higher Lows sequence similar to what followed after the December 20 2022 Low on the 32480 Support. Even the 4H CCI is on the exact same levels as December.
Target 1 is again 33400 and Target 2 is 34350 assuming the index breaks and closes a 1D candle above the Pivot Zone and then re-tests it successfully as a Support.
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DOW JONES: Hit all of our targets. Expect a retrace.As Dow Jones hit the 4H MA200 today turning 4H technicals overbought (RSI = 71.290, MACD = 117.130, ADX = 48.966) it also achieved the two targets we set last week:
Our whole plan was based on the huge demand on the November Support and the fact that the previous drop to that Support was very similar to February's. If this continues to hold, then we are at the part of the sequence as denoted by the circles. A retrace to Fibonacci 0.382 level would be very reasonable technically and once the 4H RSI turns neutral again below 55.000, we will buy again and target Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 34,050).
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