YM1!
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JUNE 13 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JUNE 13 Week
Last week we see a Scenario1 Rotation followed by Scenario3.
Market descended on strong volume, very nice short.
Possible scenarios considered are:
1) Market continue to be in rotation between 33205-32500
= Wait
2)32728 becomes support
3) 32728 becomes rejected and market return to test
30584-30926
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34807 34027 33531
33205 32563
31411 30926 30584
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close at low = Supply remains
Daily: Ave vol down bar closing toward low = Supply remains
H4: Ave vol down bar closing off low = some demand present
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Have a profitable week ahead.
Dow Jones: Jack-in-the-boxOr in fact: Jones-in-the-box as Dow Jones has jumped out of the lower green zone between 32374 and 32934 points quite impulsively. Although the index could now directly continue the ascent above the resistance at 33434 points, we rather expect it to come back into the lower green zone to finish wave 4 in green – ideally at its bottom. Afterwards, Dow Jones should rise above the resistance at 33434 points and further upwards into the upper green zone between 34311 and 34823 points to complete wave 5 in green. As soon as the index has accomplished this, it should start a countermovement.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JUNE 06 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JUNE 06 Week
Last week market was in rotation between 33205-32500.
No resolution between Bulls/Bears yet.
Hopefully early week big operators will show their hand.
Possible scenarios considered are:
1) Market continue to be in rotation between 33205-32500
= Wait
2)32728 becomes support
3) 32728 becomes rejected and market return to test
30584-30926
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34807 34027 33531
33205 32728 31979
31411 30926 30584
Weekly: Low vol down bar close off low = minor strength
Daily: Ave vol down bar closing at low = minor weakness
H4: Ave vol down bar closing level with previous UHV bar =
minor strength
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 30 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 30 Week
Last week market returned late weekto test edge of rotation zone.
Note: Strongest demand volume observed since downtrend.
Possible scenarios considered are:
1) Test rotation and rejected, for return to lower levels
2) (a) These levels become support for long
(a) 33205 (b) 32728 (c) 31411
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34807 34027
33531 33205 32728
31411 30584
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor strength
Daily: Ave vol up bar closing off high = minor strength
H4: High vol up bar closing at high = strength
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 23 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 23 Week
Last week scenario2 test and reject short was good.
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Test and reject 32167 or supply line of channel for short
2) If market reaches 29523, wait for price reaction as
it was previous resistance turned support
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34027 33066
32554 32492 32167
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor strength
Daily: Ave vol up bar closing off high = minor strength
H4: High vol up bar closing at high = strength
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 16 WeekUS30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 16 Week
Last week scenario1 breakdown finally happened.Friday market tested
breakdown area 32167
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Test and reject 32167 for short opportunity
2) Test and reject 32554 for short opporutnity
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34027 33066
32554 32492 32167
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close above middle = minor strength
Daily: Low vol down bar closing off high = weakness
H4: Low vol up bar close off high = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Extreme Selling Event May Nearly Be Over. This chart shows how the extreme selling over the past few weeks has deleveraged/revalued the US/Global stock markets to near extreme lows.
Historically, once this indicator falls below 25, the markets appear to be near extreme capitulation of any selling event.
Obviously, extreme market trends could push this level below 25 for longer periods of time, but this is getting fairly over-extended in terms of selling after a moderate Fed rate increase and a moderate consumer pullback.
Follow my research. My longer-term models are STILL BULLISH.
Watch Crude Oil. A big breakdown in Crude would coincide with the end of a price decline - representing a devaluation of overvalued energy costs.
Pay attention.
Dow Jones: Move Yourself!Move yourself!
You always live your life,
Never thinking of the future.
Prove yourself!
You are the move you make,
Take your chances, win or loser.
See yourself!
You are the steps you take,
You and you, and that's the only way.
Shake, shake yourself!
You're every move you make,
So the story goes…
Dow Jones should listen closely to “Owner of a Lonely Heart” by Yes as the text of the first stanza is indeed in accordance with what we would encourage the index to do. After it has been given the brush-off by the resistance at 34038 points, Dow Jones has retreated deeply into the green zone between 33724 and 32519 points, even touching the white zone between 32389 and 32241 points below it to finish wave (C) in white. Now, the index should brace up and move upwards, striding across the green zone and climbing above the resistance at 34038 points. However, there is a 45% chance that Dow Jones could fail to pick itself up and could drop below the support at 32167 instead.
Dow starting to set up a floor?Hi, trading view community. Looking at the Dow Jones on the daily chart, we’re starting to see a floor being set up by buyers from 32,485. This level sits in a deeper area of demand that’s been in play since February 22nd. After a volatile week of trade, could we see buyer confidence come back into the market today?
We want to see price hold above 32,485. A close below that level maintains seller drive, with indicators like the EMA and CCI still pointing to bearish conditions. But if we can see price continue to trade above that level, could the number be with buyers at the moment?
Currently, the YM is 0.77% lower at 32,558
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 08 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 08 Week
Last week, previous demand at 32427-32167 returned to support the market, so
we have scenario 3 where market returned to test the recent 2 highs.
Market is now again approaching 32427-32167. Again wait for price reaction
to this level.
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Scenario 1 extension toward 32167-32427 region for a breakdown
2) Market rotates between 34027 and 32167-32427
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34027
33066 32492 32167
Weekly: Average vol wide spread down bar close of low = strength
Daily: Ave volume down bar closing above mid of bar but off high = minor strenth
H4: Ultra high vol down bar closing off high followed by average volume
up bar closing off high = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 02 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 02 Week
If no exception, market will likely continue toward 32427-32167 Scenario1 extension
from last week's analysis.
Wait for price reaction.
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Test of 34220 breakdown, and continue toward 32167-32427 region
2) 32167-32427: If level is broken and later market returns to this area,
and is supported, next may be an attempt for an upward move
3) Market not ready for downward move toward 32427, return to clear
demand between 34220 - 33081 region
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34367 34220
33066 32492 32167
Weekly: Average volume down bar close at low = weakness
with some demand
Daily: Ave volume down bar closing at low = weakness
H4: High vol down bar closing off low = minor strength
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM Dow futures to retest previous low; 17% & 20% correction riskIt seems even more likely that YM Dow futures may retest the most recent 12% correction low with major moving averages failing to give support.
Bearish scenario:
However, if this negative 12% level does not hold, the risks are increasing that it may target the next 17% correction level. (This is more likely that the worst scenario of a 20% correction bringing it to the brink of a potential bear market.)
Bullish scenario:
If the 12% correction holds, we may see a return to Value stocks as growth stocks remains pressured in an increasing rates environment.
Not trading advice
Dow Jones: EnsnaredRemember the Devil’s Snare in “Harry Potter”? It is one of the obstacles Harry, Ron and Hermione have to overcome to get to the Philosopher’s Stone. Quite similarly, Dow Jones is ensnared by the green zone between 33790 and 32534 points, which it has entered already for the second time. We expect it to advance a bit deeper still to finish wave (5) in white, wave c in turquoise and wave 2 in green. After it has managed this task, the index should rise out of the green zone and above the mark at 34038 points. There, it should gain enough upwards momentum to cross the resistance at 35413 points as well. To confirm this scenario, though, Dow Jones must not fall through the bottom of the green zone and drop below the support at 32167. However, there is a 40% chance that this alternative scenario could come into play.