YM1!
Dow Jones RangeboundThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is on its 8th day trading between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels while currently holding support at the 23.6% Fib level. As long as price is trading below the 38.2% Fib level the trend will remain bearish. Price is rangebound between these lower Fib levels while trending below the red downtrend resistance line which is also adding bearish pressure on price and preventing a move above the 38.2% Fib level.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) is still trending below the centerline(50 level) which indicates that overall momentum behind price is bearish. An RSI(green line) reading above 50 is considered bullish while a reading below 50 is considered bearish.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) is still showing the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, with both lines moving upward indicating a short-term bullish momentum trend, but both lines remain below the 0 level indicating overall bearish momentum. A PPO reading above 0 is considered bullish, while a reading below 0 is bearish.
Overall, the trend behind the Dow Jones is bearish and I’m expecting an eventual move below the 23.6% Fib level as data releases continue to show extreme weakness in the U.S. economy.
DJI Bear ScenarioAt this point, it's very obvious that the market is all about futures trading, intraday patterns don't follow through the next day, the gaps have gone the exact opposite direction of afternoon trading the past few days.
I don't think the market does it's next leg down until MFI gets overbought, the usual pump and dump. CHart pattern suggests a gap fill tomorrow, then it's all about the Fed. Could be a non-event like Dec or they can tank the market.
We'll find out tomorrow.
Dow Jones: Update on the short term price action.Following Trump's phase 1 trade deal tweets, DJI rose but the uptrend stopped on the Higher High (bold black) trend line on the 4H chart. With 4H technicals turning neutral (RSI = 56.131, MACD = 85.700, Highs/Lows = 0.0000), this may be an early signal that today's High may deliver a rejection.
How far can that go? The previous two Higher Highs delivered a rejection of -1.50% and -3.00% respectively. The sequence can be either 1.50% lower on every rejection or double the decline of the previous one. Assuming it is the first, more moderate scenario, the potential drop goes as low as the first two symmetrical Support levels: 27,110 and 26,915.
It is important to mention at this point that even though Dow Jones is making Higher Highs on that pattern since November 19th, the RSI sequence on 4H is actually bearish on Lower Highs indicating weakness.
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Dow Jones: 4H Death Cross. Potential minor or major pull back.Dow Jones futures have so far failed to recover the 28,200 All Time High and has turned neutral on 1D (ADX = 17.288, CCI = 8.0129, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). On the 4H chart we see a Death Cross formation emerging (MA50 crossing below the MA200). Within the monthly Channel Up we've been trading in for the majority of 2019, every time a 4H Death Cross emerged, the index gave 2 major pull backs (May, August) and 1 minor (October).
Given the fact that the major pull backs took place after tops on the Higher High zone (red color) and DJI marginally touched that region on the 28,200 High, we assume that the current pull back will be a major one (around -7%). The Target Zone on this one is 26,600 - 26,180.
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Dow Jones - Sell on a Rally or BreakoutRisk still down on risk-off mood, renewed trade jitters incl China, France. If trade developments continue to play out as Tuesday’s news suggests, then Dec 15th tariffs will go on as planned, and a Phase One Trade Deal won't happen until 2020.
Markets are trading with a risk-off tone.
The call is to continue shorting Dow, either on a pullback to 27640/27770 zone, or through yesterday's lows.