DOW JONES Channel Up showing the way to All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) hit the top of the Channel Up without a pull-back, which as we noted (see chart below), was a bullish break-out signal above Resistance 1 (35700)
So you might be wondering, what about Santa's rally? Is it still feasible? It is technically, even if the index breaks lower next week. So far the short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame is holding, with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting right on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as this holds, we remain bullish, targeting the 36960 All Time High (ATH). If it breaks, we will short-term target 35300 (first level of the dashed Support range) and then get on the reversal. Ideally we would like to see the RSI oversold on the 30.00 mark before entering a low risk buy.
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DOW JONES Sell signal at the top of the 1 year Channel UpDow Jones hit the top of the 1 year Channel Up, achieving an unprecedented High of overbought conditions on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.323, MACD = 557.860, ADX = 77.014). The first signs of exhaustion are given by the Stock RSI, which is pulling back. So far this can only be a short term sell signal so we are only aiming for the minimum retrace of the 0.236 Fibonacci level (TP = 35,550). Beyond that we need to see a closing under it in order to make an extension to the 1D MA50 (technically) but that would negate a seasonal Christmas rally. So for now take we keep only a short term horizon.
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Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping.
DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib.
Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue).
Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
DOW JONES One final push before correction.Dow Jones / US30 made a new High on its November rally today.
This is all part of the bullish sequence from the bottom to the top of the 1 year Channel Up pattern.
The last blow off top rally that formed the July 27th High completed a +6.30% rise from the moment it tested and held the 1day MA50.
That would now be at 35960, above both Resistance A and B levels.
As a result there is still time for you to buy and target 35960 for quick profits.
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DOW JONES Pull-back or Santa rally?It's more than 2 weeks since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI), giving a bullish rebound signal on the 1D MA50 (see chart below) that quickly hit its target:
The price is now significantly above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is roughly where the previous bullish wave of March - April took a medium-term pause and pulled-back first to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The % rise so far though (+9.50%) is almost the same as April's (+9.03%).
With the 1D RSI however printing a sideways sequence on the 70.00 overbought mark, very similar to April's, it is worth attempting now a sell targeting the 1D MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 34300. Since however we are very close to the (seasonaly bullish) Christmas period, if Resistance 1 (35700) breaks, we will take the loss on the short and instead buy towards the top of the 12 month Channel Up and target 36300, as part of the so called Santa's rally.
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DOW JONES: The top is close. Pullback expected.Dow Jones is unfolding the second rally sequence of the 1 year Channel Up and has reached today the 0.786 Fibonacci level of July's High. The 1D technical outlook is about to turn overbought (RSI = 68.650, MACD = 236.580, ADX = 32.415) and as the rally approaches the R1 level (35,100) as well as being almost on the +9.05% range from the bottom, we are looking towards a late April peak formation and pullback.
The pullback is expected to be at a -2.75% minimum, like June 23rd that reached the 1D MA50. Sell, TP = 34,300.
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DOW JONES Consolidation leading to a Christmas rally?Dow Jones / US30 spent all week above the 1day MA50, in fact Friday's rebound took place exactly on it (Support A at 33850).
This is potentially an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and with the 1day RSI at 60.00 and over its MA, it draws comparisons with the June 15th pattern, which peaked at +6.08%.
That pattern has same measurements as the current Inverse Head and Shoulders and formed the Right Shoulder in 3 weeks, supported by the 1day MA50.
After that another +6.15% leg brought the price to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
Similarly, the current Inverse Head and Shoulders may target the 1.786 Fibonacci, which in this case will be a little under the 35700 Resistance B high.
Buy and target 35500 (a little under Fibonacci 1.786).
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Are we about to see a new era of expansion for the tech sector?This is the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (NDX/DJI) on the 1W time-frame (with the RSI on the 1M), which offers very interesting conclusions as to where we are on the large scale of things, which can be particularly helpful now as the shorting bets have been increased to the most in 5 years.
The recent pull-back since the July Highs, have made market critics call for a stronger correction. for the NDX/DJI pair, this has just been a consolidation. Going back to 2000, the tech sector witnessed a 'biblical' Bear Cycle as the Dotcom Bubble popped. It wasn't until November 2021 that the NDX/DJI ratio reached this 0.47 All Time High (ATH) Resistance but again as we saw, the inflation crisis happened and had a 1 year Bear Cycle.
Now the ratio is almost back to the ATH Resistance and just formed a 1W Golden Cross, which is a very bullish pattern, the first since October 2007. What's really interesting is that this consolidation on a 1W Golden Cross is quite similar to the July 1991 pattern. That fractal was basically the expansion phase that led to the Dotcom Bubble burst. The 1M RSI sequences are similar between the two fractals.
This chart shows us that such expansions take place inside Channel Up patterns. The 1W Golden Cross and a potential break above the 0.47 Resistance, may be the signal telling us that the technology market is starting a new era of expansion and it won't be surprising even fundamentally. Among other technological advancements and inventions, we are in the era of A.I. and that can be the vehicle to grow the market to unprecedented highs just like the internet was in the 1990s fractal that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble.
Do you think the time to invest in tech long-term is now?
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DOW JONES: Final pump before correction.Dow Jones turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.241, MACD = -34.600, ADX = 33.114) after more than three weeks as it smashed past our target and even crossed over the R1 level (34,150). The inevitable formation of a Golden Cross on the 4H timeframe, indicates that this sequence has one more High left to give on the LH and HH trendlines cross.
The 4H MACD Bearish Cross is very much like October 12th, both took off on a Double Bottom Bullish Cross. This is our last short term buy (TP = 34,500).
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DOW JONES Technical pull back ahead of Golden Cross (4h).Dow Jones is on course to form a Golden Cross on the (4h) time frame within 2 days.
Despite being bullish medium term, this pattern has caused a minor short term pull back all the prior 3 times it emerged in 2023.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 33750 (-1.20% decline, same with all previous cases).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) got overbought on Friday, as it had done all of the previous 3 fractals we are looking at that preceded the Golden Cross (4h). An additional sell signal.
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Notes:
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DOW JONES Above the 1day MA50 after almost 2 months!Dow Jones / US30 crossed on Friday over the 1day MA50 for the first time since September 15.
It hit Resistance A (34150) which was the October 17th High and completed so far 5 green days in a row almost at the top of the Bearish Megaphone.
The long term pattern is a Channel Up, so there is still considerable upside left.
The 1day RSI also crossed over its Falling Resistance much like the March 29th fractal, which after a short consolidation on Resistance A, it hit Fibonacci 0.786.
Buy if the price crosses over the Bearish Megaphone and target 34950 (0.786 Fibonacci).
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DOW JONES: Started rising, at least on the short term.Dow Jones went from oversold to neutral on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 51.457, MACD = -63.520, ADX = 28.038) as the price bottomed on the LL trendline of the three month Channel Down and rebounded straight to the 4H MA50 today. This is the short term Resistance, a closing above it confirms the 2nd part of the rally to the 4H MA200.
The 4H MACD is on the same Double Bullish Cross bottom formation as October 4th. The rally that followed rose by +4.05%. Consequently our bullish target (TP = 33,500) is under a max +4.05% range, as well as the 4H MA200 and the dashed LH trendline.
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DOW JONES Best buy opportunity in the last 7 months.Dow Jones (DJI) hit the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern by completing leg (e). This is a similar structure to the (a) - (e) sequence that bottomed on March 15. Technically this is the best buy opportunity on the index in the last 7 months. On top of that, the 1D RSI is on Higher Lows during the prices (d) - (e) wave, showcasing a huge Bullish Divergence, the first such since February 24 2022! We can't ignore however the potential 1D Death Cross formation and any bullish approach has to be adjusted short-term.
As for the target, the March rally breached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, therefore giving us the framework to target 35000 (Resistance 1 + 0.786 Fib). Be careful, as failure and/ or rejection on the 34150 October 17 High, will be a bearish signal, aiming at a Lower Low, potentially near Support 2.
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DOW JONES Time to buy the dip again.Dow Jones / US30 reached our desired buy level based on our last idea (chart at the bottom), which is exactly at the bottom of the 11 month Channel Up.
It kept the 1week MA200 intact once again (has been since October 2022), so that maintains the long term trend bullish.
The shorter pattern is a Bearish Megaphone and as mentioned previously, our target is for the time being and until a break out takes place, inside this pattern.
Target 33600, which is under the 1week MA50, under which all of October's candles have closed.
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DOW JONES Best buy entry on a 7 month basis.Dow Jones is approaching Support (1) and the Rising Support of the 2023 Channel Up.
The Support (1) level has been holding for 5 months.
Based on the Falling Resistance that initated the current correction and the rejection on the MA50 (1d), the price action is identical to November 2022 - March 2023 so far.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34800 (Falling Resistance).
Tips:
1. The Sine Wave tool very accurately displays the Cycle of peaks and bottoms since late 2022 and shows the price is on the most optimal bottom buy level time wise.
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Notes:
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DOW JONES: Support Zone intact. Buyers are favored short term.Dow Jones is volatile on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 37.485, MACD = -170.620, ADX = 29.943) after almost testing the S1 level (32,813) yesterday but following a 4H MACD Bullish Cross formation, it is a low risk buy opportunity. The rejection of the previous rise took place on the 4H MA200, so that is our target again. Buy and TP = 33,700.
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DOW JONES The bottom isn't in yet.Dow Jones may be trading inside a long term Channel Up but the medium term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone.
The last Bottom of the Channel Up was closer to the 1week MA200, this time the MA level is even closer, a strong candidate for a bottom.
The previous correction leg made a -10.15% extension, a new one of this size meets almost perfectly the bottom of the Channel Up and a little over the 1week MA200.
Sell to 32400 then reverse to buying and target 33600 (1week MA50).
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DOW JONES: Strong short term buy signalDow Jones is on a range with the 1H timeframe neutral (RSI = 46.672, MACD = -41.790, ADX = 29.739), giving us an opportunity to buy the decline of the last three days and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,000). Technically this consolidation, even on 1D RSI structure which is inside a Rectangle, mimics early September. The medium term trend remains bearish inside a Bearish Megaphone but the long term bullish inside a Channel Up.
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DOW JONES On the verge of a new bullish break out.Dow Jones is testing the MA200 (4h) today, after holding the MA50 (4h), extending the rebound that was generated at the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is so far replicating to a good extend, the March 15th rebound-bullish leg.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA200 (4h) break out.
Targets:
1. 34850 (Falling Resistance).
Tips:
1. The MACD On the (1d) time frame is past a strong Buy Cross, much like March 22nd. It shows that we are on the same level as when that bullish leg tested the MA200 (4h).
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Notes:
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Head & Shoulders Bottom in Dow Jones Futures?Dow Jones index futures has completed head & shoulders bottom formation and is exhibiting a breakout from the resistance zone on the 4h time frame. If the breakout is successful, we can expect the price to hit the previous support/resistance zone of 34800.
DOW JONES is in an expansion Cycle and people still shorting it!Dow Jones on the 3M chart gives you the clearest picture you can get.
Every 10-15 years it consolidates inside a Megaphone (fundamental reasons like war, recession etc) and then an expansion phase follows.
In the 90s this expansion phase was extended due to the uprecedented boom of Dotcom.
While the index is on its expansion phase, the RSI trades inside a Falling Wedge, which warns of the loss in bullish strength and eventually leads to the new Megaphone.
Right now it is obvious that we are in an expansion phase. Needless to say it will last for as long as the MA50 holds.
The real question is will it be short like in the 1950s or extended like in mid 1980s-90s?
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DOW JONES May be starting a new Bull rally under our nose..Dow Jones (DJI) is printing on its RSI on the 1W time-frame an astonishingly symmetric Higher Lows pattern as 2015/ 2016. As with today, the price was within a Rising Wedge at the time, making a fake-out bearish break but still was emphatically supported by the lower Bollinger. In fact the Bollinger Bands have been instrumental in containing the price action.
It we are indeed (based on the 1W RSI) on a bottom similar to October 31 2016, then a very aggressive Bull rally is about to begin. And as always the majority isn't taking notice.
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DOW JONES Small pull back on the cards.Dow Jones hit the 1day MA200 yesterday and failed to close over it.
As a result, the price got rejected and started pulling back today.
Based on the 1day RSI, we could be in a minor corrective candle similar to March 22nd, which found Support between the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci range.
Buy on the 0.618 Fibonacci and target 35000 (Resistance A).
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