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US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 19 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 19 Week After trapping longs, market declined aggressively. Temporary demand on average volume has returned, which could be a way of absorbing any long positions still present in the market. Possible scenarios: 1) Long if 30406 / 30636 is supported 2) Short on rejection of 31385 / 31042 / trend channel rejection Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32789 31793 31385 31042 30636 30406 Weekly: Higher vol & wider spread than previous bar, close off low (ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward high = Demand overcoming supply H3: Ultra high vol bar + ave vol up bars = Demand has returned Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES invalidating bearish patterns, targeting 34000 again.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) closed yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it is extending the rebound we called on our previous analysis: As you see, that rebound came exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and was the second (July 14 the first) time it held, making it the short-term Support. What Dow achieved with that 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, is to invalidate the February 24 - April 28 2022 fractal, which by that time was similar but failed to break and close above its 1D MA50 and eventually got sold aggressively. What makes the current rebound potentially having a long-term effect is 1) the 1D RSI rebound on its multi-year Oversold Zone and 2) the Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD, which within 2022 always delivers at least a +8% rebound. Such % rise would be the test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is our medium-term target. As mentioned numerous times before, in order to commit to long-term buying we would like to see the index close above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) first, which provided the rejection on the August 16 High. So far the medium-term trading strategy is to buy every pull-back on the Higher Lows trend-line/ RSI oversold zone. A break below that level, we'll consider a bearish signal, targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
4
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 12 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 12 Week Last week's Scenario1 long on support of dotted trend line was good. Caution: long trap observed, do not chase long. Possible scenarios: 1) Long if 31450 / 31864-32029 is supported 2) Short on rejection of solid trend line / 32546 3) if triangle formation observed there may be short opportunity Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32546 32029 31864 31450 30975 30406 Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high = minor weakness Daily: Low vol up bar close off high = weakness H4: Low vol narrow up bars + narrow close, followed by ave vol up bar + UT bar = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES hit the Higher Lows line. 1D RSI oversold.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) is on its 7th straight day below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) having fallen almost -10% since its August 16 High caused by the strong rejection on the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). The price has hit today the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and had one more contact on July 14. This is the only Support level that stands before a potential June 17 Low re-test, which is also where the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is currently at, the index' natural long-term technical Support. As long as the Higher Lows hold, we can expect sideways trading within that trend-line and the 1D MA50. If the latter breaks, consider it a buy break-out signal targeting the 1D MA300 again or at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which was hit both on the June-Aug and Feb-March rallies. If the June Low and 1W MA200 break, then we can expect a new Lower Low around the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, as the May 20 Low did. On a short to medium-term perspective, this is a buy opportunity as the 1D RSI is touching the Oversold zone that has been holding since the 2020 COVID crash. As you see, every direct hit in the Zone has delivered a rebound of at least +8.00%. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
2
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 05 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 05 Week Last week's short on retracement/channel rejection was good. Temporary support at the moment at 31221. Possible scenarios: 1) Long at 31221 / dotted trend line support 2) Short on rejection of solid trend line / 32029 / 31221 / retracement on low volume Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32546 32029 31221 30406 29639 Weekly: Higher vol than previous bar, narrower spread, close off low = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand H4: Ultra high vol bar + up bar close of low = minior demand Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
2
DOW JONES on the 2008 crash fractal and how it avoids it. I've made many comparisons of Dow Jones' (DJI) 2022 Bearish Price Action with past Bear Cycles but being near closing its 3rd straight red 1W (weekly) candle since the August 15 rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it is time to update it. As you see, this is a comparison of Dow's 2021/2022 chart against 2007/2008. The dynamic factor is WTI Oil (black trend-line). As you see in July 2008 Oil peaked while the index had already started it's correction inside the new Bear Market. Dow's 1W MA50 rejection was followed by a sharp sell-off below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) where the 1W MA50 crossed below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to form a Bearish Cross. The time that the index reached the 1W MA200 from its Market Top was 37 weeks (259 days). At the moment the 2022 fractal looks to be following closely the 2008 sequence. If we exclude the fundamental extreme of the peak of the Ukraine - Russia war when Oil registered its peak (March 2022), its technical normalized top was in June 2022 right when Dow rebounded just before hitting the 1W MA200. See how even the 1W RSI sequences are identical so far. What this indicates is that Oil can continue dropping as the Fed attempts to lower an out of control inflation, but still stocks can fall along with it, just like it happened from mid 2008 to early 2009. As a result, the 1W MA50 rejection seems so far consistent with mid-phases of a Bear Cycle. Fundamentally, a big factor that is not consistent with the 2008 fractal is the strong labor market we're currently at, with the Unemployment Rate (teal trend-line) still on market lows as opposed to the 2008 fractal, which by the 1W MA50 rejection in May 2008, it was already rising aggressively. This means that technically, a weekly candle close above the 1W MA50 can be regarded as an invalidation of the Bear Cycle fractal. Also the 1W RSI printing Higher Highs can be taken as such. What do you think will happen next? Can Dow close above the 1W MA50 or August's rejection will hit the 1W MA200 as per the 2008 fractal? P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of WTI Oil and the Unemployment Rate plotted and pinned to scales B and Z, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Editors' picks
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
30
DOW JONES holding the 1D MA50 in a repeat of the COVID recovery!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and today shows the first signs of recovery. The drop from the August 16 High has been substantial, almost -7% but so has the rise since the June 17 low (more than +15%), so profit taking was natural, especially since the High exceeded the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The first Resistance on the short-term is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which is being tested at the moment. On the long-term though, this pull-back to the 1D MA50 after such a strong rally, resembles the initial recovery of March - June 2020 from the COVID crash. Especially considering also that the RSI and MACD on the 1W time-frame have been printing identical patterns, with the MACD being on a Bullish Cross since July 27 as it did on May 22 2020! From June 15 2020 to July 21 2020, the 1D MA50 held as Support four times and it catapulted Dow to the 1.15 Fibonacci extension. A repeat of that pattern sets the current medium-term target exactly on the 35000 level. Notice also that as on June 23 2020, Dow is currently close to having the 1D MA50 cross above the 1D MA100, which is a Bullish Cross formation and that would be the first time since then! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
5
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 29 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 29 Week Last week's 33205 rejection provided short opportunity. Possible scenarios: 1) Long at 31780 support 2) Short on rejection of 32546 / 31780 / retracement on low volume Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34027 33326 32546 31780 31780 Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = Supply + some demand Daily: High vol down bar close toward low = Supply, + some demand coming in H4: Climatic + high vol down bar close at low, breaking down a previous support = bearish absorption Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES rejection finding Support soon.Exactly 2 weeks ago on our last Dow Jones (DJI) analysis we stated that the price had entered a possible rejection zone (red) and unless it closed a weekly (1W) candle above the 1D MA200, we would get a pull-back: Well as it turned out the index closed last week below both the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are very close to each other, and got a considerable rejection this week. The price is now approaching the critical Support cluster that consists of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). The chances of getting a new bounce are high as not only are wee on a 1W MACD Bullish Cross since late July but also the 1D MA50 is about to cross above the 1D MA100, forming a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened was on after the June 15 2020 1W candle, which was the first recovery from the March 2020 COVID crash: As you see, the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 held as Support levels and Dow was able to sustain a solid rise. Technically there is no reason not to expect a similar development but in order to technically claim that the index is back onto the long-term bullish trend we need to see a weekly candle closing above the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
2
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 22 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 22 Week Last week supply returned for Scenario2 short opportunity. Possible scenarios: 1) Daily/Weekly analysis showed minor strength, let's see if demand is able to overcome supply for uptrend continuation. 2) Short on rejection of 34027 or market retraced on low volume. Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34807 34027 33205 Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor strength Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor strength H4: Very high volume up bar close off high followed by down bar = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES rejected on the Golden Ratio. What's next?The Dow Jones index (DJI) broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) early this week but got rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from its January 05 All Time High (ATH)). Failing to hold the 1D MA200 as a Support, can result into a short-term pull-back to test the lower Fibonacci levels (0.5 and 0.382) as well as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This short-term technical correction, shouldn't change the long-term trend-line, which after the huge 1W RSI bounce and the +15% rally since the June 17 low, has turned bullish. Even fundamentally, this market rally was supported by the first significant retrace on the Inflation Rate (black trend-line) and coincided exactly with the top on the US10Y (teal trend-line). So as you see, the rally had strong fundamental drivers, especially the US10Y, whose late sustainable rise since August 01, seems to worry the stock markets. A new peak there, can mark the new low on Dow. Also, notice that all prior 1D MA200 break-outs since February 01, failed to create a sustainable continuation and if we connect those tops with two trend-lines, we can see the solid technical Resistance that Dow Jones needs to overcome in order to be able to post a sustainable bullish trend long-term into the new Bull Cycle. P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of the US10Y and Inflation Rate plotted and are not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
2
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 15 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 15 Week Last week market reached previous supply zone. Long on retracement continues still preferred Possible scenarios: 1) Continue of upward momentum for long on retracement 2) Short on rejection at channel supply Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34807 34027 33205 Weekly: Ave vol up bar = minor strength Daily: Ave vol up bar = minor strength H4: Ave vol up bar = minor strength. Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677