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YM1

DOW JONES entered the rejection zone. Long-term trend decider!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) has finally entered the Rejection Zone that we wrote about last week, consisting of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level: With the RSI on the 1W time-frame at its highest level since January 17 2022 but more importantly the 1W MACD on the first Bullish Cross since this 8 month Bear Phase started, it is very likely that we've finally reached the point were the long-term trend shifts from bearish to bullish. However only a weekly closing above the 1D MA200 can confirm that. Until then, being so close to it offers a great Risk/ Reward trade using the tight SL approach just above it to limit the risk and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W close above the 1D MA200 should be enough to target the 35540 - 35875 Resistance Zone on the short-term. Important note that may go under the radar: the 1W MACD histogram posted in August its first green bars since May 2021, more than a year ago. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES close to a rejection zone. Bullish if it breaks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fulfilled our buy signal given in late June after the price made a Lower Low on its long-term Channel Down: Right now the scene has slightly changed as the 1D RSI broke above its 8 month Resistance Zone and even though the price is now exactly on the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, this may be the first sign that the trend is about to change from long-term bearish to bullish. There is still a chance to break above the Channel Down without breaking the bearish trend as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) are above it. Those are the levels where Dow got rejected last time (April 21) and started a downtrend to a new Lower Low on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result a plan that offers excellent R/R opportunities is to sell just above the 0.618 Fib (see rejection zone) with a tight SL on the 1D MA200. Short-term target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where you can short if it breaks before hitting 0.618. Medium-term target 30450. If we get that candle close above the 1D MA200 then its minimum loss on the SL and switch to a break-out buy on the long-term. In that case the short-term targets can be the previous Lower Highs (33540 and 35875). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 01 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 AUG 01 Week Last week market reached previous supply zone. Long on retracement continues. And if price broken down of channel is is rejected, target could be 30406. Possible scenarios: 1) Continue of upward momentum for long on retracement 3) Rejection at previous supply zone + breakdown of channel for short Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32563 31867 30406 29639 26212 Weekly: Ave vol up bar close at high = strength Daily: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness H4: High vol narrow spread up bar followed by ave vol up bar close off high = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
DOW JONES has formed a 2018/2020 type bottom.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) made the first bullish step as we outlined last week by breaking above its 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) and is currently just below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In the process it has made the exact same build up as the COVID bottom and subsequent recovery but let's see into this in more detail. First and foremost, it achieved this week the 1W MACD Bullish Cross. It is the first such formation below the 0.00 level since May 18 2020 and January 28 2019. Those were the Bullish Crosses that followed the COVID crash and U.S. - Chine trade war bottoms respectively and took the index into the early recovery steps. On top of that, it broke above a Lower Highs sequence on the 1W RSI that was holding since November 01 2021. Moving on to the MA periods, we can see than during the COVID crash, when the 1D MA50 crossed below the 1W MA100, the bottom was formed. That is also the case with the current correction as the same 1D MA50/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross has so far formed a low on the June 13 1W candle. Back again to the COVID crash, when the 1D MA100 crossed below the 1W MA100, the index was consolidating preparing for a strong rise above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. On today's correction, we are just after this Bearish Cross, with the index already on two straight (very strong) 1W green candles. We can see that even in January 2019, the index had a similar consolidation within the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 before a break above the latter pushed Dow Jones aggressively above the 0.786 Fib. In both sequences, all this happened after a 1W MACD Bullish Cross (as we have today), while the 1D MA50 was holding as a Support. Even though the pattern since the start of the year is a Channel Down within a Bearish Megaphone, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) located exactly on the Megaphone's Lower Highs (top) trend-line, we do have an excellent framework to work projections based on MA break-outs, modelled out of the similar 2018/ 2020 patterns. This time the 0.786 Fib is around 35250 and this is our target for the end of Q3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
2
DJI to $14,500 in July 2032?Do we revert to the 50 year mean in 2032? That would put the Dow at 14,500 in 2032 if the cycle repeats. Found it very interesting that it was exactly 50 years to get a low & bounce from the Great Depression bottom. Every mega bear market is different so IF this is the start of another mega bear market that takes us to the lower blue line on this log chart then I doubt it will be labeled "Great Depression or Stagflation". Great Depression-Lasted 3 years Stagflation-Lasted 16.5 years Jan 2022-July 2032=10.5 years (16.5+3=19.5 years and then divide that by 2 and you could conceivably say 10.5 years of whatever we will call it does make sense from a timeframe perspective). Either way, IFFFF we are in a mega bear market the chart won't look identical to either the Great Depression nor Stagflation...it will have it's own uniqueness and it's own name. For now, I'm just looking for the open weekly gaps on the DJI to get cleared seeing as those have ALWAYS cleared. Open weekly gaps are at 28,495.05 and 24,718.46
TVC:DJIShort
by Vixtine
3
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 25 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 25 Week Last week's long preference worked well. Weakness shown over 3 TF analysis. We may see short opportunity temporarily. Possible scenarios: 2) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range 3) Behavior change scenario Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32563 31867 30406 29639 26212 Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = weakness Daily: Ave vol UT bar = weakness H4: Ave vol tiny spread up bar = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 18 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 18 Week Last week, rotation strategy worked well again. Point to note for Dow, unlike NASDAQ and SNP, we didn't see bullish volume returning. So we will still adopt the rotation strategy. Also with minor strength on Weekly tf, we can also look for long oppportunity on retracement. Possible scenarios: 2) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range 3) Behavior change scenario 4) Trend continuation - channel boundary trades Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32563 31867 30406 29639 26212 Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward high = minor strength Daily: Ave vol u bar close at high = minor strength H4: Very high vol narrow spread up bar close off high followed by ave vol tiny spread up bar = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 11 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 11 Week Last week, rotation support long was good. 3 TF analysis is displaying weakness. We should be expecting lower prices temporarily. I'm keeping the existing scenario plan from last week. Possible scenarios: 1) Channel resistance / rotational resistance = short 2) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range 3) Behavior change senario 4) Trend continuation - channel boundary trades Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32563 31867 30406 29639 26212 Weekly: Low volume up bar close off high = minor weakness Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward low = weakness H4: Very high vol up bar close off high toward middle + level close in background = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 04 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 JULY 04 Week Scenario1 short last week was good. Market did not reach bottom of channel, temporary return of strength Possible scenarios: 1) Channel resistance = short 2) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range 3) Behavior change senario 4) Trend continuation - channel boundary trades Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32563 31867 30406 29639 26212 Weekly: Ave volume down bar close in middle = indecisive Daily: Ave vol up bar close at high = minor strength H4: Ave vol up bar close off high = weakness Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677