US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 16 WeekUS30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 16 Week
Last week scenario1 breakdown finally happened.Friday market tested
breakdown area 32167
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Test and reject 32167 for short opportunity
2) Test and reject 32554 for short opporutnity
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34027 33066
32554 32492 32167
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close above middle = minor strength
Daily: Low vol down bar closing off high = weakness
H4: Low vol up bar close off high = weakness
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Have a profitable week ahead.
YM1
Extreme Selling Event May Nearly Be Over. This chart shows how the extreme selling over the past few weeks has deleveraged/revalued the US/Global stock markets to near extreme lows.
Historically, once this indicator falls below 25, the markets appear to be near extreme capitulation of any selling event.
Obviously, extreme market trends could push this level below 25 for longer periods of time, but this is getting fairly over-extended in terms of selling after a moderate Fed rate increase and a moderate consumer pullback.
Follow my research. My longer-term models are STILL BULLISH.
Watch Crude Oil. A big breakdown in Crude would coincide with the end of a price decline - representing a devaluation of overvalued energy costs.
Pay attention.
Dow Jones: Move Yourself!Move yourself!
You always live your life,
Never thinking of the future.
Prove yourself!
You are the move you make,
Take your chances, win or loser.
See yourself!
You are the steps you take,
You and you, and that's the only way.
Shake, shake yourself!
You're every move you make,
So the story goes…
Dow Jones should listen closely to “Owner of a Lonely Heart” by Yes as the text of the first stanza is indeed in accordance with what we would encourage the index to do. After it has been given the brush-off by the resistance at 34038 points, Dow Jones has retreated deeply into the green zone between 33724 and 32519 points, even touching the white zone between 32389 and 32241 points below it to finish wave (C) in white. Now, the index should brace up and move upwards, striding across the green zone and climbing above the resistance at 34038 points. However, there is a 45% chance that Dow Jones could fail to pick itself up and could drop below the support at 32167 instead.
Dow starting to set up a floor?Hi, trading view community. Looking at the Dow Jones on the daily chart, we’re starting to see a floor being set up by buyers from 32,485. This level sits in a deeper area of demand that’s been in play since February 22nd. After a volatile week of trade, could we see buyer confidence come back into the market today?
We want to see price hold above 32,485. A close below that level maintains seller drive, with indicators like the EMA and CCI still pointing to bearish conditions. But if we can see price continue to trade above that level, could the number be with buyers at the moment?
Currently, the YM is 0.77% lower at 32,558
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 08 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 08 Week
Last week, previous demand at 32427-32167 returned to support the market, so
we have scenario 3 where market returned to test the recent 2 highs.
Market is now again approaching 32427-32167. Again wait for price reaction
to this level.
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Scenario 1 extension toward 32167-32427 region for a breakdown
2) Market rotates between 34027 and 32167-32427
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34027
33066 32492 32167
Weekly: Average vol wide spread down bar close of low = strength
Daily: Ave volume down bar closing above mid of bar but off high = minor strenth
H4: Ultra high vol down bar closing off high followed by average volume
up bar closing off high = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 02 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAY 02 Week
If no exception, market will likely continue toward 32427-32167 Scenario1 extension
from last week's analysis.
Wait for price reaction.
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Test of 34220 breakdown, and continue toward 32167-32427 region
2) 32167-32427: If level is broken and later market returns to this area,
and is supported, next may be an attempt for an upward move
3) Market not ready for downward move toward 32427, return to clear
demand between 34220 - 33081 region
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34367 34220
33066 32492 32167
Weekly: Average volume down bar close at low = weakness
with some demand
Daily: Ave volume down bar closing at low = weakness
H4: High vol down bar closing off low = minor strength
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM Dow futures to retest previous low; 17% & 20% correction riskIt seems even more likely that YM Dow futures may retest the most recent 12% correction low with major moving averages failing to give support.
Bearish scenario:
However, if this negative 12% level does not hold, the risks are increasing that it may target the next 17% correction level. (This is more likely that the worst scenario of a 20% correction bringing it to the brink of a potential bear market.)
Bullish scenario:
If the 12% correction holds, we may see a return to Value stocks as growth stocks remains pressured in an increasing rates environment.
Not trading advice
Dow Jones: EnsnaredRemember the Devil’s Snare in “Harry Potter”? It is one of the obstacles Harry, Ron and Hermione have to overcome to get to the Philosopher’s Stone. Quite similarly, Dow Jones is ensnared by the green zone between 33790 and 32534 points, which it has entered already for the second time. We expect it to advance a bit deeper still to finish wave (5) in white, wave c in turquoise and wave 2 in green. After it has managed this task, the index should rise out of the green zone and above the mark at 34038 points. There, it should gain enough upwards momentum to cross the resistance at 35413 points as well. To confirm this scenario, though, Dow Jones must not fall through the bottom of the green zone and drop below the support at 32167. However, there is a 40% chance that this alternative scenario could come into play.
DOWJONES 4 hour : dont fear pick buy above 33000 and hold ittoday nasdaq push index down , mst powerfull place ( next low) can be in 33000 , after buy DONT CLOSE IT SOON , TRY HOLD IT 15-20 DAY minimum to 34400 EMA200 daily will touch soon or late !!!
for safe buy , after 33000 touch , you can wait Pinbar comes on 1hour or 4hour , or daily chart or in 15min chart , dow break last trendline to up
good luck , if you have old buys , dont fear on dow daily chart trend is UP , it will fly up soon
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 25 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 25 Week
Scenario1 Rotational play between 34220-35330 yielded good result.
On Friday we saw Scenario 2 with breakdown of 34220 short.
Market should be attempting 33433 next, and then the 32427-32167
region.
Should market reach 32427-32167, wait for price reaction.
Play scenarios mapped out:
1) Test of 34220 breakdown, and continue toward 32167-32427 region
3) 32167-32427: If level is broken and later market returns to this area,
and is supported, next may be an attempt for an upward move
3) 33433 is supported and market attempt higher levels.
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34367 34220
33427 32492 32167
Weekly: Average volume wider spread down bar close off low = weakness
with some demand
Daily: High volume down bar closing off low = weakness with some demand
H4: UHV bearish absorption + high vol down bar closing at low = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM! Potential Bullish Momentum | 18th April 2022 We see that price is moving nearer to the pivot level. Price can potentially bounce off from the buy entry level of 34174 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level of 34960 in line with previous horizontal swing high. Alternatively, price might continue to drop towards stop loss level of 33436 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 18 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 18 Week
Friday's bar showed rejection of 34945 - 34800 region. A
Our response to market's attempt at retracement should
then be to short.
Per 11 Apr's analysis, Market will likely head lower should intermediate support
34220 becomes resistance, adopt a short on retracement preference.
Play scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 34220 - 35330
2) Breakdown of 34220 and this becomes resistance, market may
test 33433 and 32200 region.
3) Test of breakout area 33433 and supported = long opportunity.
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34367 34220
33427 32492 32167
Weekly: Low vol down bar closing off low = minor strength
Daily: Average vol down bar closing at low = weakness
H4: Average vol down bar closing off low = minor strength. Read of the
last 3 bars showed S>D.
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
YM! Potential Bullish MomentumPrice is near to the buy entry level of 34174 which also lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It can potentially rise up to the take profit level of 34960 in line with previous swing high. Our bullish bias is supported by how price is expected to bounce off the support of the RSI indicator.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 11 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 11 Week
With weakness shown by Supply>Demand and followed by a UT,
market will likely head lower should intermediate support 34220 becomes
resistance, then we should look to short on retracement.
Play scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 34220 - 35330
2) Breakdown of 34220 and this becomes resistance, market may
test 33433 and 32200 region.
3) Test of breakout area 33433 and supported = long opportunity.
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34367 34220
33427 32492 32167
Weekly: UT bar followed by down bar = weakness confirmed.
Daily: Average vol up bar closing off high = weakness
H4: UHV up bar closing off high followed by down bar = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 04 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 APR 04 Week
Market encountered weakness and attempt for higher prices
were rejected. The week ended with minor support on
Friday's low.
Play scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 34220 - 35330
2) Test of 34220 and supported = long opportunity
3) If 34220 is broken and resisted = short opportunity
4) Test of breakout area 33433 and supported = long opportunity.
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34945 34367 34220
33427 32492 32167
Weekly: Low vol upthrust bar closing below middle =
potential weakness. (if next bar closes lower, weakness is
confirmed)
Daily: Average vol up bar closing above middle = strength.
H4: UHV down bar followed by high volume up bar closing
off high. Some support but supply still present.= minor strength
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAR 28 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 MAR 28 Week
34034 support held, and market went into rotation
between 34220 - 34800. Looks like market may
be building a bullish cause so that it can return into
the upward channel.
Play scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 34220 - 34800
2) Breakout long play if confluence of 34800 +
return into channel is supported.
3) Test of 3343 play - breakdown and resisted at 34220 bottom
of rotation and market may test 33433
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
36446 35750 35330
34800 34367 34220
33427 32492 32167
Weekly: Low vol up bar closing off high =
No demand weakness
Daily: Low vol up bar closing off high, narrower
spread bar on same effort = weakness
H4: Ultra high vol upthrust bar closing below
rotational resistance 22800, followed by up bar
= some strength.
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.