Dow: Rising trendline & 24k = major supportThe Dow is at its lst chance to rebound from rising trendline and round number support
Otherwise another drop to the February lows is likely
YM1
Consolidation Range for Dow before Potential Face RipperCurrent Price at Posting: 25588
Directional Bias: Long
Price Target: 25850+
Good Entry: 25270-25320
Risk/Reward: Max of 50 point risk / Potential Reward of 500-600 points.
Trade Idea Invalidation: Hourly Candle close below 25250
Dow Jones Industrial tracking Oil and metals lower $YMDJIA is headed lower tracking investors rotation from stocks into 10yr T-bonds. I am seeing the index breaking down towards 22-21k.
Oil has already shed considerably and metals are trading lower too which effects Dow Jones Industrial sectors.
Technically we breached a weekly Insidebar to the downside and traded back which gives us an opportunity to get back into the downtrend on smaller timeframes.
This is still just an inside month.For all the rhetoric of crashes etc, just remember we are still in an inside month, we have gone nowhere! Trend is down on all timescales but that can all change in the next two weeks with the new month and the seasonal strength starting the timescales afresh. Don't get married to an idea.
Also to note- this chart shows beautifully the importance of monthly closes and opens in relation to yearly pivot points. Look how often they coincide with each other. Another reminder to scale out to the bigger picture and not get sucked into the noise of emotional rallies and sell offs.
YM Yearly volume profilePoint of control sits at 24800. We are still in a range moving between YP and YR1, with plenty of space to move either way so don't be drawn into early calls of crashes etc. We have returned and dropped below the POC which should now act as resistance. However 24200-25500 is a value area with a broad profile so strong moves both ways can occur.
Some NQ LovingDirectional Bias: Long
Price Target: 7140-7160
Good Entry: 6840-6860
Risk/Reward: Max Risk of 30 points/Potential Reward of 250-300 points
Trade invalidates on a close below 6825 on the hourly candles.
Dow Jones - Short-Term trend pushes higher on Trump/Xi commentsThe US-China trade war fears have subsided after a positive phone call between Trump and Xi yesterday. THe markets dismissed Apple's worse results and continued bidding up stocks.
We're now in full recovery mode as suspected, with retail traders shorting into this rise.
Dow Jones Elliott Wave View: Correction CompletedHello Traders,
YM short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a bounce to 25845 high ended red wave “b”. Down from there, red wave “c” unfolded as ending diagonal structure i.e lesser degree cycles within black wave ((1)), ((3)) & ((5)) also unfolded in 3 swings structure. Where black wave ((1)) ended at 25220 low as zigzag structure. Up from there, a bounce to 25594 high ended black wave ((2)). Below from there, black wave ((3)) ended at 24515 low in another 3 swings.
Above from there, a bounce to 25075 high ended black wave ((4)) bounce. Then finally a decline to 24089 low ended black wave ((5)), which also completed cycle red wave “c” & blue wave (IV) pullback. Up from there, the index made a strong bounce higher & broke the pivot from 25845 thus suggests that the next leg higher in blue wave (V) could have started. Near-term, while dips remain above 24089 low the index is expected to resume the upside. But a break above 26962 10/03/2018 peak remains to be seen for final conviction of this bullish view & to avoid double correction lower in bluee wave (IV) pullback. We don’t like selling it.
YM ThursdayAs described yesterday, the buyers came in strong out of support areas at ~24100. Price broke through the 25000 level and created a new structure high by breaking the last highs as well. In the more immediate order flow price created a 1 to 1 to the upside reaching 25300. Price corrected strong and broke the immediate structure at ~25070. I am expecting price to correct a little more to the downside overall and a possible sell at a 1 to 1 completion - D-sell at ~25233.
Dow Jones - Short-term momentum shifting higherPositive signs from the Dow as we overtook 25000 yesterday. We still need to clear the 25300/400 zone which is
holding the market down still, but we have definitely stabilized now and fears of a crash are gone (for the moment).
We may see some consolidation now ahead of the US Mid-Term elections on Nov. 6th.
YM Wednesday - Buyers are coming inPrice tried to trade lower to create a new structure low and to retest the support levels at ~24209 and futher down at ~23980. While waiting for yesterday's sell, I was expecting a rotation and a short-entry between the 50% and 61.8% Fib Correction. After the sellers came in around there to correct weak, buyers dominated and traded price higher creating immediate new structure highs. Looking at the harmonics, price extended a 1 to 1 target in the immediate order flow and traded above areas of good selling structure. The sellers did not show up and look weak compared to the buyers momentum right now. Let's see if price breaks through the last high and resistance levels at ~25000. Still flat for now.
Buy My DowDirectional Bias: Long
Price Target: 25300+
Good Entry: 24500-24600
Risk/Reward: Max Risk of 125 Points, Potential Reward of 700-800 points
YM Tuesday - Still looking for ShortsAfter an extended 1 to 1 completion (yesterday's short) we reached strong areas of support (blue lines - my weekly analysis) where the buyers need to show up. Since the last high that price made is not being taken out, I am still looking for shorts. Price is correcting right now. Unsure about the correction this time, but I am expecting it to happen between the 50 and 61.8 Fib Correction, also in line with price structure. Just look at structure to the left where the sellers have their territory to come in.
Check my higher time frame analysis as well.
*DISCLAIMER: Futures , stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
YM Weekly (Technical) Analysis YM still bearish - The buyers came in good at ~25200. The sellers still dominated though and traded below those levels. Expecting price to create new structure lows and retesting support levels at ~24200 and ~23980 - (blue lines). Nice harmonics in play, also in the immediate order flow.
Check my analysis for the more immediate order flow.
**DISCLAIMER: Futures , stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
None of the content published on this account constitutes a recommendation for investing your money. Trading is at your own risk.
Dow Jones - Key levels to watchInvestors are showing much nervousness ahead of the US Mid-Term Elections. Sources report the Democrats are so vindictive that they intend to reverse everything and anything that Trump has done, independently from the costs to the economy.
Downside remains intact despite the short-term consolidation we're seeing. Only a close above Thursday's high/25040 will release some pressure.
We may push lower into the week of Nov 5th, and the next key supports are 24400, 24000, 23100/200.
Dow Jones - Negative Bias still in Play US elections are keeping investors nervous. The Dow remains a sell on rallies for now,
but volatility will continue to be intense.
Dow Jones - More Down Side Ahead11 Oct could be a day to remember(refer to post "Dow Jones Fibonacci Time"), Dow fall almost 1000 points in a single day and still dropping. In 4 trading days, Dow have dropped 6.52% at the time of this post from historical high.
The current price structure in daily chart are not favorable to stocks investors, first 3 Oct all time high was not sustainable and price quickly retraced. Market seems like forming a "double top" like formation, but not symmetrically align with classic double top. With this formation, crucial support could be seen on neckline or previous low 23088.
On the right char (2 hours chart), the current price is trading below 9 multiples golden ratio 25446 and heading to 10 multiples 24507 770 points of room from now. If price continue to swing lower, next projection target at 22987 , which align with the daily "double top neckline".
The above analysis will be violate if price form higher high structure.
UPD: $DJIA Possible C&H, PO at 22,900Has to break below current fresh minor demand zone first $YM_F, $DIA
Dow Jones - Volatile Action Requires CautionWith nervous investors ahead of the US elections, the recovery hasn't been as swift or clean as expected.
Caution is warranted.
Dow Jones - Short-Term Trend turns UpBuyers returned in the major equity indices yesterday and we expect higher prices still.
Dow Jones - Short-Term Range conditions continueDow is currently neutral in it's short-term range. It can really go both ways from here, so the break is the key to the next move.
Dow, FKLI & Hang Seng - The 50% RetracementThe sharp declined in indexes market have not make significant come back yet since 11 Oct.
The 3 charts plotted in 60 minitues time frame. From the left
- Dow declined 7.6% from the peak, and rebound to 50% ratracement ( 25510) and trade below.
- FKLI declined 6.7% from the peak, and rebound to slightly higher than 50% ratracement (1738) and retraced.
- Hang Seng declined 10.5% from the recent peak, among the worst performing market, and rebound to 50% ratracement (25775) and trade below.
The current price structure in correction stage with no indication of bullish yet.
Dow - Short-Term Range is KeyShort-term range barriers help in gauging the next move. Wait for a break before acting.
Keep a tight watch on trades these days...headline risk is increasing.
